Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
In 1981, as inflation and Treasury yields were screaming to new heights, my good friend Gary Shilling announced, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” He was right. That bond rally is already 35 years old, and I think it will continue.
Gary also thinks the rally is still underway. He backs up that claim with a compelling case for Treasurys and for the “long bond” (the 30 year).
Gary recalls his famous public debate on stocks versus bonds with Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton, in 2006. This was just before the Great Recession kicked in and sent Treasury prices sky-high. Siegel remarked to the audience, “I don’t know why anyone in their right mind would tie up their money for 30 years for a 4.75% yield” (the then-yield on the 30-year Treasury).
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Monday, August 22, 2016
Bank of Ireland to Charge for Placing Cash on Deposit / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: GoldCore
Deposits at Bank of Ireland are soon to face charges in the form of negative interest rates after it emerged on Friday that the bank is set to become the first Irish bank to charge customers for placing their cash on deposit with the bank.
This radical move was expected as the European Central Bank began charging large corporates and financial institutions 0.4% in March for depositing cash with them overnight.
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Monday, August 22, 2016
China Announces its’ new loan in International Reserve Asset (SDRs) / Interest-Rates / China Currency Yuan
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has received approval from the World Bank allowing its’ issuance of bonds which are denominated in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The World Bank is the first entity to approve of it and consequently marks the launch of the SDR bond market of the worlds’ second-largest economy.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
4 Reasons Not to Buy Bonds Now / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : I try to be a long-term thinker and filter out all the short-term noise. That’s hard nowadays, because there is so much short-term noise!
Any one of these four things would be big news, especially in the dog days of summer. But all four? It’s crazy out there.
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Thursday, August 18, 2016
Low / Negative Interst Rate’s Legacy / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: Raymond_Matison
In all of global human history, interest rates have never been this low. Indeed, Europe has trillions of Euro bonds yielding a negative interest rate, meaning that an investor pays for the privilege of having lent to a borrower with its attendant credit exposure, and agrees beforehand to get less in return than he originally “invested”. America’s fixed income yields have been declining for over thirty years, and now are also at record lows – hovering close enough to zero such that some expect negative rates to come to our domestic market in the not too distant future.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
The 45th Anniversary of The Most Destructive Event In Modern Monetary History / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
The US government, bankrupt yet again after another disastrous war of aggression, had its back pushed to the wall in 1971.
Up until that point, foreign central banks could redeem US dollars directly with the US Treasury in exchange for gold. And, recognizing that the US was essentially bankrupt, foreign central banks, especially France, began to demand gold instead of the dollar.
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Sunday, August 07, 2016
Banker Bunker Mentality, Big US Banks On The Brink / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The big US banks are dead, as in giant hollow reeds. Such has been the Jackass refrain for eight straight years. They are insolvent monsters and destroyers of wealth and capital. They are massive criminal enterprises. Events prove the case well. The Too Big to Fail policy has instead assured the wreckage and destruction of the USEconomy. Save the big banks, but ruin the capital base. The USGovt under the management of the banker cartel since the 9/11 event, which they orchestrated in a bold move, has systematically brought down the macro business sector, permitted the USDollar platforms to decay completely, and rigged the financial markets in every conceivable arena. The central bankers are running scared. The Jackass wishes they would all depart in exile, locate on a lovely Polynesian island, and eat each other, with the winners wearing their bones and teeth.
Thursday, August 04, 2016
What Student Debt Problem; Simple Solution ends the problem / Interest-Rates / Student Finances
By: Sol_Palha
A problem clearly stated is a problem half-solved. Dorothea Brande
The real issue is that there are college students that don’ want to work and want to go to the best colleges money can buy, and the parents are encouraging this. What happened to the day you went to the college you could afford, and you worked to pay for all of it or, at least, helped your parents. The problem lies with the parents and the kids; the parents are encouraging this asinine behaviour. Today’s generation believe that they are entitled to the best of the best without having to work for it. College Graduates that are drowning in debt, but still refuse to give up on luxuries is a perfect example of this principle in action. Instead of tightening their belts, they continue to add to the debt and then cry wolf when everything starts to fall apart.
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Thursday, August 04, 2016
Don’t Be So Sure That States Can’t Go Bankrupt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Our judicial system has a time-tested option for those who can’t pay their debts: bankruptcy. Individuals and businesses use it all the time.
The debtor submits itself to a court, which tries to reach the fairest possible settlement with creditors. It’s messy, but it usually works for the best.
Federal bankruptcy code permits cities, school districts, and other local governments to file bankruptcy.
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Thursday, August 04, 2016
UK interest Rate PANIC CUT! As Banks Prepare to Steal Customer Deposits / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today is the day when UK interest rates will be cut from 0.5% to probably 0.25%, there lowest levels for over 320 year history of the Bank of England. Which follows over 7 years of rates being held at 0.5% the duration of which has seen virtually ALL economists reveal their true level of ineptitude as they have collectively consistently forecast that UK Interest rates were always just about to head higher, that the start of a series of rate hikes was just months away, which not only never materialised but is now hit with the reality of a RATE CUT! And probably announce an additional QE of at least £50 billion to monetize UK government debt and generate artificial profits for the Bank of England's banking sector brethren.
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
Beware: Central Bankers are Driving Us into the Dirt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: Harry_Dent
One of the major triggers I’ve been warning about is already happening, even before we understand and/or admit that we are in a recession. Zero Hedge just picked up on an article from Jeff Cox at CNBC.Global corporate debt now sits at a record $51 trillion and is poised to hit $75 trillion by 2020 – just four years away. If interest rates rise and the economy slows, it will be very hard for companies to roll these bonds over – and then we get what S&P Global Ratings is calling “Crexit.”
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Tuesday, August 02, 2016
What You Need to Know If You’re Exposed to Muni Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rodney_Johnson
The housing bust was awful, particularly in Florida and other “sand states.” As the economy slowed, consumers lost their jobs, and when they couldn’t pay their mortgages, they then lost their homes.
Even though that wrenching period happened almost a decade ago, it will live in our memories for years to come. I can recall much of the pain, but also other aspects of the moment. Some people were desperate for the relief that came their way; others were using it as cover to game the system.
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
The Yield Curve - 3 Big Stories Not Being Covered With Graham Mehl / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Andy_Sutton
It occurred to us as we were laying out the contents of this article that we should probably not assume certain things. This publication has a wide readership, from corporate CEOs to high school students. The former are looking for analysis, the latter to become educated. The topic we are going to tackle in this second installment is a complex one, so some introduction is in order. Therefore, this piece will consist of two parts: an opening introduction, a primer if you will, then the analysis will follow. If you are well-versed in interest rates, bonds, bond yields, and debt, you can probably skip the primer, although we’ve been surprised at the number of people who have subscribed to the misconceptions stated therein.
Monday, August 01, 2016
Central Bankers Fighting An Unprecedented Global Economic Slowdown / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Gordon_T_Long
The mainstream news sources seem determined to ignore the extent of the global slowdown in trade. Whether exports, imports, industrial production or whatever your preferrred metric, the facts are undeniable. Nevertheless, the mainstream media chooses to refuse to cover it. It begs an obvious question of - why?
Monday, August 01, 2016
Former Fed Chairman May Have Given Japan the Answer to Its Debt Problems / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: John_Mauldin
Japan just had its national elections. Voters there do not share the anti-establishment fever that grips the rest of the developed world. They gave Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his allies a solid parliamentary majority. Japanese are either happy with Abenomics or see no better option.
Abe may now have the backing he needs to change Japan’s constitution and its official pacifism policy. This would be less a sign of nationalism than a new economic stimulus tool. Defense spending is expected to more than double. This will give a big boost to Japan’s shipyards, vehicle manufacturing, and electronics industries.
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Friday, July 29, 2016
Retirees Are Risking Their Life Savings on Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
Retirees and other investors are reaching farther and farther for yield. They’re piling into all sorts of increasingly risky investments. So, it should come as no surprise that credit spreads are shrinking between what in theory are risk-free investments and other investments.
My friend Danielle DiMartino Booth, formerly at the Dallas Fed, covers a range of topics affected by central-bank policies. I think she is going to be an increasingly visible force in the world of central bank critics.
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Friday, July 29, 2016
The Fed Is Preparing for Negative Rates—Here’s the Sign Everyone Missed / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
I think it’s possible that the Fed will push rates below zero when the next recession arrives. I explained why a few months ago in my free weekly column, Thoughts from the Frontline, at Mauldin Economics.
In that regard, something important happened recently. And not many people noticed. I’ll do a quick review to explain.
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Friday, July 29, 2016
A Cornered Bank of Japan Shocks Markets. Risk Assets Now Under Threat - Video / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates
By: Mario_Innecco
I just like to talk about the bank of japan they had a policy meeting today
like the equivalent of the FOMC for the Fed the news came out at a quarter to
midnight sorry quarter to midnight yet new york time or quarter to five a.m. london time
so it actually came out yesterday New York and today in London but that's not
the point a lot of people i think the majority of economist in Japan were expecting a big
surprise by the bank of japan in terms of in terms of lowering even more their
negative interest rates and increasing the size of QE bottom as i read here
from news headlines zerohedge for example says bank of japan shocks market shuns government pressure
leaves q we r & rates unchanged questions policy effectiveness
there's more here from investing.com yen jumps after boj easing fall short of
expectation there is a new stimulus package though the government has
announced after the meeting we've seen new stimulus package by the bank of japan and it's includes a
hundred and thirty billion dollars in fiscal measures
Thursday, July 28, 2016
The Fed's Loud Talk Policy / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Peter_Schiff
Theodore Roosevelt's famous mantra "speak softly and carry a big stick" suggested that the United States should seek to avoid creating controversies and expectations through loose or rash pronouncements, but be prepared to act decisively, with the most powerful weaponry, when the time came. More than a century later, the Federal Reserve has stood Teddy's maxim on its head. As far as Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the Fed are concerned, the Fed should speak as loudly, frequently, and as circularly as possible to conceal that they are holding no stick whatsoever.
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Thursday, July 28, 2016
FOMC Interest Rates and Their Impact on the US Economy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Charles_Carnevale
To me, interest rates and their future direction seems to be obsessively discussed and debated by many investors. So much so, that I often get the impression that many investors believe that interest rates coupled with Federal Reserve policy are the primary drivers of our economy. From my perspective, interest rates and Federal Reserve monetary policy are contributing factors to economic growth and stability. However, I would stop short of considering them of primary importance.