Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Interference Most Foul: When Speculation Becomes Reality / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger ruminates on the bubble-popping influence of government and the banking sector on cryptocurrencies, and offers a brief rundown on his most current holdings.
To put it mildly, the business of financial forecasting is not only an inexact science, it is a magnified case study in handicapping, the likes of which you find in sports betting such as horse racing or basketball. You take a basket of data inputs, such as the last five heats run by a certain filly or the accuracy of a basketball player shooting free throws and you assign various weights to the data, which allows you to determine whether the horse or the player has the ability to shine.
In financial forecasting, you take a similar basket of inputs, such as 10-year Treasury yields and average dividend yields, plus a barrage of other factors, which allows you to gauge direction and amplitude. In sports, you are handicapping a winner, and by how much, while in financial forecasting you are handicapping the direction and by how much.
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Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Stock Market Nominal New Highs Reached – Skilled Traders Should Still Be Cautious / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Stock market rallied on Friday, October 25, on TESLA earnings crushing expectations as well as news that any positive US trade deal outcomes could see almost immediate removal of future tariffs that are scheduled to be implemented near the end of October. This was enough for the markets to rally from the start of trading and continue to push higher until near Noon in NY. After new highs were reached, the markets contracted a bit headed into the close.
Gold shot up early this morning before the news related to the US trade deal hit. Our opinion is that this is a natural advancement in precious metals that is not new related or muted by some external factors. Precious metals have been setting up a sideways FLAG formation for over 2 months and we believe the apex/breakout move is near.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
How to Avoid the Next 50% Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Michael_Pento
This ageing bull market may soon face the third market collapse since the year 2000. Nobody can predict the exact starting date of its decline—but either a recession or stagflation will surely be its catalyst. During the next debacle, the typical balanced portfolio designed by Wall Street, which consists of approximately 60% stocks and 40% bonds, will no longer provide much protection at all. In fact, that type of portfolio construct has become downright dangerous. The simple reason for this is that for the first time ever both stocks and bonds are in a massive and unprecedented bubble; and are therefore both vulnerable to significant selloffs. Bonds will no longer provide a ballast or offset to your stock portfolio once reality hits both of those asset classes. If a bond has a 5% yield and has 30 years left to maturity; that holder would lose 25% of his principal if interest rates rise by just 2%. Given the fact that bond yields are the lowest in history, an increase of 2% is certainly not out of the question; and is in fact most likely inevitable.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My in-depth analysis of 30th September 2019 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019 concluded in expectations for a probable deep correction during October which would set the market up for a santa rally into the end of the year -
Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion as illustrated by the below chart is for the Dow to target a trend towards Dow 27,500 by the end of this year following a significant correction during October that could see the Dow trade as low as 24k.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
A Stock Market New All-Time High Is Not Always Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
There is a significant amount of frustration from the bulls and bears alike as the market has been basically in a trading range for many, many months. So, before we go into my expectations for the coming months, I want to review how we got here.
As the market began its rally off the December lows of 2018, my initial expectation was that we could top out as we headed into the March/April time frame.
Clearly, the market had other intentions as it extended the timing for my correction expectations, and in quite a similar fashion as to what we saw in 2014-2015. Yet, we are still well within the price target expectations I outlined at the end of 2018.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
Stock Market Final Touch? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
Three Stock Charts Every Investor Needs to See This Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks broke upwards last week from the consolidation pattern we’ve been watching.
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Sunday, October 27, 2019
Stock Market Dynamics Changing for Year End Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Last week saw the US equity markets testing the all time highs and moving back a little. The action has been healthy. Markets are almost sanguinely comfortable that everything everywhere is doing great. The risks to the downside in economy seems not as important to investors.
We look at a plethora of charts and setups to drive the point which we have been making that market crash is not coming and we have saying that for over 6 months now. There might be a blip here and there but things are healthy.
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Friday, October 25, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast October to December 2019 (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the DJIA stocks index into the end of 2019. However, the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019
- Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
- Yield Curve Inversion Current State
- US Presidential Cycle
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- Short-term Trend Analysis
- Long-term Trend Analysis
- MACD
- VIX
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Formulating a Stock Market Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
- AI Stocks Buying Levels
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Money Printing Fuelled Stocks Bull Market Hurtling Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock markets so far have confounded expectations for a deeper October correction by dutifully rallying for an assault on resistance, with the Dow trading to barely 0.5% of its all time high, all whilst the Trump and the Brexit chaos shows continue in the US and the UK. So how can this be? To once more iterate the general indices are on an exponential upwards curve, where deviations from the highs being buying opportunities for the fundamental reason of exponential money printing by whatever names it may go, QE, government bonds etc.. Governments of the world continue to print money that drives the exponential inflation mega-trend to which stock and other asset prices are leveraged.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Stock Market New All-Time Highs By Year End - But, It May Not Be What You Expect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
This market has been difficult for both the longs and the shorts for months now. While it has been unwilling to break down, it has also been equally unwilling to break out.
What makes me scratch my head even more of late is that the Fed has come to the table with its “not-really-QE-4” of $60 billion a month. For those that remember, QE1 was approximately $100 billion a month on average, QE2 was $75 billion, and QE3 was $85 billion. But, to see the Fed coming forth with this type of liquidity injection when the market is hovering just below its all-time highs is a bit surprising. Yet, the market is still unable to break out.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
What's Wrong With The Stock Market Smart Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Jason Goepfert writes: Another one bites the dust
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest reading shows a 2nd consecutive drop month-over-month.
The LEI hasn’t gone much of anywhere for a year, showing signs of plateauing. Its Bollinger Band has tightened to a near-record degree, showing that the index has flattened out over the past year.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
US Stock Markets “Roll Over” On Earnings and Economic Data At Channel Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we near the end of October 2019, a very interesting price setup is taking place across many of the US market sectors recently. We only have a total of about seven trading days left in October 2019 and the Financial Sector ETF is rolling over with what appears to be an Engulfing Bearish price pattern near price channel highs. Additionally, the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NQ) has been mostly weaker compared to the ES and YM.
On September 30, 2019, we published this research post that highlighted why our predictive modeling systems suggested the S&P 500 and NASDAQ market sectors would become much more volatile than the Dow Jones Industrials: MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES.
We believe this research is still very valid given the current price rotation near these price channel highs and given the potential that the Dow Jones stocks may become relatively stronger alternatives than the S&P 500 and NASDAQ sector stocks.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Stock Market VIX Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
VIX
VIX is in a falling range from 26 to 13. Which should be bullish for stocks. However, the pattern is resembling that of October / November last year, which was a prelude to the Decembers steep sell off. August saw a higher high and September a high low. So we could be witnessing the calm before the storm.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Stock Market Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year. History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises. It appears in 2019 is no different. Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.
We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials. In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotational range of about 11% in total size. Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM – nearly 3x the normal volatility prior to 2015.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Stock Market Stalls: Caution Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Equity markets have once again moved to all time highs esp in the US but action at the top is dicey and looks suspicious.
Key stocks are analysed below and we can see the stall in momentum which is often a harbinger of things to come.
AMZN- Stalling under the 50-day moving average after back testing the up trend line. AAPL - Stalled out all week, flat to Friday's close. FB - Stalling at last months high, trying to bounce off the 50-day moving average but below the trend line. GOOGL - Stalling at resistance NFLX - Stalled and reversed at the channel line. Falling below the 50-day moving average. MSFT - Stalling at resistance, falling below the 50-day moving average today. ADBE - Stalled at the 50-day moving average, falling below the topping pattern neck line.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Stock Market Crash Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been attempting to answer the question that seems to be on everyone’s minds right now – are we setting up another Black Monday type of event in the global markets and what should traders/investors know before the event potentially takes place. Our research team has spent the past few weeks trying to better understand the global economic events that took place 8 to 20+ years before the Black Monday event happened and have been particularly interested in the 10+ years just before the Black Monday event. Additionally, we’ll focus on the recovery event that took place after the Black Monday collapse completed.
In Part I of this article, we attempted to highlight some of the similarities of today’s global economic world to the scenario in the early 1980s. Many of you may not be old enough to remember the 1960s or 1970s, but at least one individual on our research team is old enough and was actively trading in 1985. His interpretation of the economic events prior to the 1987 Black Monday collapse and how they may be similar to today highlight some very interesting facets for our readers.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, October 21, 2019
Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Back in the day, for those of you that are old enough to remember and have experienced one of the most incredible trader psychology driven stock market decline in recent history.
The difference between “Black Monday” and most of the other recent stock market declines is that October 19, 1987, was driven by a true psychological panic, what we consider true price exploration, after an incredible price rally.
It is different than the DOT COM (2001) decline and vastly different than the Credit Market Crisis (2008-09) because both of those events were related to true fundamental and technical evaluations. In both of those instances, prices have been rising for quite some time, but the underlying fundamentals of the economics of the markets collapsed and the markets collapsed with future expectations. Before we get too deep, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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