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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Dow Theory Stock Market Sell Signal - Into The Breach / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Captain_Hook

The stock market triggered a Dow Theory sell signal Friday, with both the Dow and Transports closing below June lows, and new lows for the move. Now we have confirmation from a very reliable indicator the stock market is in real trouble to go along with our own observations last week. In relation to this, speculators continued to take put / call ratios down on Thursday, which was part of the reason stocks fell Friday. Just how big a factor put / call ratios are right now is uncertain however, because premiums for puts close to the money doubled Friday, showing extreme pessimism readings not seen by this observer in quite some time. What's more, put positions that matter (on the S&P 500) still outnumber calls almost 2 to 1 (when the SPY and SPX series are added together), so in spite of a possible route in the first few days of this week, I am still hoping for a rally back above 1500 at some point believe it or not. But if put / call ratios keep falling like they have been, with the SPX series down to 1.76 as of last Thursday, I'm not likely to get my wish. 

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Fear in the Streets – A Dress Rehearsal / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Dudley_Baker

As we write this article it appears that fear is abating and that the financial markets are getting back to business as usual.  Nevertheless, one major piece of bad news could send the markets tumbling once again.  So, have we just witnessed the worst of the market decline s or was this just a dress rehearsal for a much more severe and perhaps catastrophic decline ahead ?  None of us ha s a crystal ball going forward from here, but we as investors continue to seek opportunities always aware of the potential short term downside risk.

So, we ask the question; what have we learned from the action of the markets as the volatility occurred?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Can the Nasdaq (Q's) Penetrate Resistance? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Mike_Paulenoff

This morning's strength in the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) propelled the price structure into a major resistance band between 47 and 47.90, as well as towards a confrontation with the July-August down trendline, now at 47.95, which I think will prove to be impenetrable in the absence either of a surprise cut in the Fed funds rate OR a pullback into the 46.50 area first. It is with that in mind that I hold a 50% short position in the Q's in our model portfolio against my other long positions as a "speculative" hedge (how's that for an oxymoronic phrase?) in the upcoming hours.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Financial Markets Discussion and Update of the HUI Gold Bugs Index / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch

By: David_Petch

The sub prime debt market is huge and the pile or associated derivatives is larger (some 450 trillion), mostly in US Dollar. If cash injection is required to stabilize things, it is likely that the US Dollar(as per the charts) remains buoyant until mid to late 2009 before finally collapsing below 80 in one fowl swoop (pun intended, the USD is a dead duck, just a matter of time). The USD still is the reserve currency of the world and once the USD prints an equivalent amount of paper to reduce the global holdings of banks to 30-40% of the total paper, then it will be dumped.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Forget Peak Oil, Peak Net Worth is the Real Danger! / Stock-Markets / Deflation

By: Brady_Willett

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

Is the proverbial 'Peak' in Consumer Borrowing upon us?

With the 1990s stock market mania about to go bust, it was easy to conclude that the U.S. economy would see an entrenched recession. After all, the bubble was arguably larger than any before, and - thanks to easy investing via the internet and the proliferation of 401Ks, mutual funds, etc. - the fallout in stock prices was going to impact an unprecedented proportion of the population directly.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Stock Market Warning - Time is Short - Credit Crunch Crisis Does Not Abate / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch

By: Christopher_Laird

I put out an alert to subscribers as to the following. Included are some additional comments.

After the Fed cut the discount rate Friday, and after the initial exuberance Friday and Monday in Asian and EU markets, the dust settles a bit. Then people look if they can see anything through the fog.

I am not surprised the US markets are flat, and certainly, this is not a confirmation of returning confidence, particularly after the Asian markets rallied 2 - 3% Monday (Sunday night here). They are rallying again Tuesday 2%. This is not convincing to me. 

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Semiconductor Chip Stocks Quiet, but Looking Higher / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The SMH (Semiconductor ETF) is acting a bit sluggish so far today, but, that not withstanding, the near-term pattern continues to point higher, and the price structure should accelerate once near-term resistance is hurdled between 37.15 and 37.25. My next optimal target is 38. Only a break of 36.80 will begin to compromise the timing of the expected upside breakout.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Fingers of Financial Markets Instability Continues - Part Two / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

In This Issue – 3 Fingers

1. Water, Water Everywhere, But Not a Drop To Drink!
2. Keys to the House
3. Redemption Day

1. Water, Water Everywhere, But Not a Drop To Drink!

Do not think that because the credit markets are seizing up that there is no money in the financial system, there is. Bank and Corporate balance sheets are strong. Money market funds are in excess of 2.6 trillion dollars. There is plenty money looking for places to find short term yield, they just want to know they will “get it back”. The money can't move as the ability to trust the collateral of the counterparties is in question. The Federal Reserve began to blink Friday morning by lowering the discount rate 50 basis points from 6.25% to 5.75%. It was a clever move and shows that the Federal Reserve under Bernanke is a wily group that is going to fully try and tackle the problems inherent in the Greenspan put. It's going to be Good cop versus bad cop in the open market committee, as Bill Poole scares the devil out of us and the rest of them make sure the baby IS NOT thrown out with the bathwater.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Major Change for China's Individual Stock Market Investors / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Money_and_Markets

Tony Sagami writes: The not-so-invisible hand of government intervention has been very active lately. For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank flooded the system with tens of billions of dollars, and announced a surprise, mid-meeting cut of its discount window rate by half a percentage point.

There is a lot of debate over whether those moves will solve the credit crunch and save the sagging stock and real estate markets. And the uncertainty is what's causing U.S. markets to go haywire. Yesterday was another day of wild swings, in both U.S. stocks and bonds.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Further Stock Market Weakness Expected - Leading Market Indicators: Part 1 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

This report is the first of a two-part series reviewing several key leading indicators on the equity markets. With recent volatility due to the subprime mortgage exposure and drops of 10% or more to major indexes, the timing and direction of the markets is vital now for many investors.

The Dow Jones Utilities Average has a 40 year history of leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Utilities as a sector, are the most sensitive to interest rate movements and are normally the first group of stocks to reverse their trend ahead of the DJIA.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

US Financial Markets Rocked — What Is Really Happening / Stock-Markets / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

Last week I alerted readers to the possibility of a cut in the Fed funds rate. As sure as God made little apples, a cut is exactly what we got — except that it was the discount rate that was cut. For those of you who gave a sigh of relief at the Fed's “timely intervention”: take a deep breath because at some time in the future we will get a rerun of this financial fiasco and the Fed won't be able to stop it without igniting a severe inflation. Assuming for a moment that the Fed took this risk, the result in all likelihood would be a run on the dollar followed by an immediate increase in the funds rate on the heels of which would emerge an unavoidable recession.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Bullish on US Treasuries and Financial Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Purely from a technical pattern, the XLF Financial Select SPDR, a sector that everybody is watching, appears to have completed a pullback in the aftermath of last week's powerful advance from 31.50 to 36.50.

Today's low at 33.58, followed by the upside pivot and rally to 34.15/30 has the right look of the start of a near-term advance that should revisit 35.50 at a minimum and more than likely 36.50 in the upcoming hours.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 20, 2007

Glossary of Credit Crunch Gloom / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch

By: Paul_Petillo

In the last several weeks, the questions about Wall Street and the stock markets have become much more declarative. No longer are they phrased as if those who ask want answers yet, when spoken, the statements often implore the listener to offer something, some comfort, sympathy, empathy, anything.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 20, 2007

NOLTE NOTES - Stock Market to Revisit Lows during September / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Good time to take a vacation and clear the mind and body of all things Wall Street. However, upon return the markets are acting as though the financial world is ending. While we have been concerned about the markets for much of this year (our beginning year prediction was for a flat return at best), the near seizing up of portions of the credit markets was alleviated by the Fed cutting the discount rate by a half of one percent on Friday before the market open. The Fed has been involved in providing liquidity to the markets over the past few weeks, however the cut was a more formal statement that they stand at the ready to provide the “grease” to keep the economic wheels moving.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 20, 2007

Nasdaq (Qs) Poised to Continue Larger Recovery Upleg / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Although the major equity market ETFs feel like they are moving around quite a bit, actually in relation to the intense volatility during the prior two weeks, this is a pretty calm day! The pattern the Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) have carved out since Friday's spike high at 46.99 appears to me to be taking the form of a coil (lower highs and higher lows). As long as 45.59 contains any forthcoming weakness, the integrity of the lower side of the coil will remain intact. Conversely, I think that today's high at 46.64 is a second data point near the top side of the coil.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 20, 2007

Massive Credit Crunch Striking Now! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

Martin Weiss writes: A massive credit crunch is striking, and you sit at a critical juncture like none other in history.

Never before have you seen so much wealth at stake. Never before have you seen such massive threats to that wealth. And, fortunately, never before have investors had such powerful tools to protect themselves from these threats!

In just the last few days, the U.S. Federal Reserve has desperately tried to rescue the nation's gigantic $10 trillion mortgage market …

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 19, 2007

How Far Will the Stock Market Crash Go and What Do we Do Now? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Richard_C_Cook

The “Crash of 2007-08” is underway

The immediate triggers are being described quite well: the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market; the vulnerability of the rest of the economy to the subprime undertow, due to the “efficiency” of the markets in spreading risk; the worldwide overextension of cheap credit; the failure of large institutional investors and Wall Street brokerages to behave responsibly; and the long-term effects of the U.S. trade and fiscal deficits which are now coming home to roost.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Stock Market Technical Analysis : Trimming the Hedgies / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Dominick

With so many bombs hitting the tape, and with massive short-covering rallies apparently never far behind, it was suggested last week that less experienced traders stay flat, or at least stay flat more often, as the market structure becomes more and more distorted by outside forces. Still, there were some fantastic setups this week we were able to take advantage of, and from here it looks like there's at least one more big move yet in store.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Stock Market Technical Analysis Report 18th August 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: The Federal Reserve Bank cut its discount rate 0.5% to 5.75% on Friday.

What is going on?

Technical analysis is the study of trading patterns as technicians we look for repeating patterns.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Panic at the Fed! Collapse in the US Dollar! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Money_and_Markets

The Federal Reserve is so desperate to stop the spreading panic in the credit markets that …

It has just slashed its discount rate by a HALF point!

It has blown away its own rules on how long the banks can borrow! And …

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