Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, August 22, 2014
Are Stocks Bear Markets the New Bull Markets? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Lately, when I appear on CNBC and Fox Business, I seem to face an increasing number of bulls who claim we’re not in a bubble and that we could see the markets explode upwards in the weeks and months ahead. And they can list countless reasons for their view.
What I’m seeing less and less of are those pundits willing to be bearish… and those who have amended their point of view. “If we get a correction,” they say, “it will be minor… 10% or so.”
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Friday, August 22, 2014
US Stock Indices 10-Year Consolidation Patterns ... Upside Breakouts? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
I was originally going to do the Weekend Report on the very long term charts for the markets but after last Friday's trading I decided to mix it up a bit with some shorter term charts. It seems like everyone is either looking for that 10% to 15% correction right here before the stock markets can go higher or many looking for the top that will lead to a bear market. That is possible but I would like to show you some charts that maybe saying this correction is over and the next impulse leg up is now getting underway. You never know 100% for sure if you are right until you can look back in hindsight. With that said lets look at some charts starting with the INDU.
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Friday, August 22, 2014
SPX Fibonacci Study / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
I have done a Fibonacci study of the SPX and wish to share it with you.
· Minor Wave 1, which began at the June 24. 2013 low is 149.34 points in length.
· Minor Wave 3 is 223.37 points in length and 1.4957 times the size of Wave 1. Let’s call it a Fibonacci 1.50 times.
· So far, Minor Wave 5 is 256.84 points in length, or 1.72 times the size of Wave 1 (truly a blow-off top). In Fibonacci terms,
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Friday, August 22, 2014
Stock Market - This is Not Going to End Well / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
ZeroHedge reports, “We are sure this will end well... As CDS-based credit ETFs are launched, so the number of ways to 'sell' volatility (buy complacency) for retail equity investors have exploded in recent years as The Fed's stranglehold on uncertainty has continued. However, as Bloomberg reports, as VIX has tumbled in the last few weeks, investors are wagering on further declines - in the five weeks through Aug. 15, they put almost $320 million into the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV): the longest stretch of weekly investments since the note began trading in 2010.
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Thursday, August 21, 2014
Dow Stocks Index Searching For Secondary Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The Dow continues its tremendous rally from recent lows. I have stated before that it is my opinion that this is a bear market rally. Has anything happened to change that opinion? Nup, but I’ve sure got a good case of the heebie jeebies! Let’s revise the charts to see why.
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Thursday, August 21, 2014
Mafia Boss Claims Stocks A Bubble, Buy Physical Gold and Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Michael Franzese, the former powerful mafia boss turned motivational speaker and author, warned on CNBC that stocks are a bubble, Wall Street is crooked and advised people to own physical gold and silver bars.
Asked for his “top investment tips,” Franzese told CNBC:
“I did a lot of things at times with people on Wall Street and I don’t trust them … that is the bottom line … a lot of [Wall Street] guys are shady and they did shady things with me and I don’t trust them. And I don’t like other people that I don’t know really well taking care of my money. I think that I can do it better.”
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Thursday, August 21, 2014
Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs As Investors Await Fed’s Conference / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Stock Market Crash a Historical Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation. In this article I will use one such transition to demonstrate the position of our present civilization and its possible effect on stock exchange rates.
When we consider the characteristics of the phases of a social transformation we may find ourselves at the end of what might be called the third industrial revolution. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation (= 25 years). A transition has the following characteristics:
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Thursday, August 21, 2014
Fed Minutes Not Hurting Stock Bulls.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Even though there was the usual language of maybe we should raise rates sooner than later. The market is smart enough to understand that raising rates isn't in the cards for a long time to come, and even it was raised, it would be done very slowly over a very long period of time, meaning there's still nowhere to go with your dollars other than the stock market. The bears, and anyone looking for something other than the status quo, seem to be wasting their mental energy. Even Fed Yellen said last month that when housing and employment is where they want them to be, they will still keep rates at historically low levels.
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Thursday, August 21, 2014
Meet Your Investment Manager / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
There is little else left in the asset-pricing world than central bankers. The redoubtable Ben Hunt, chief risk officer at Salient investment managers ($20 billion under management), wrote on David Stockman's Contra Corner: "I've spent the past few weeks meeting Salient clients and partners across the country.... When I had conversations [with clients and partners] six months ago, I would get a fair amount of resistance to the notion that narratives dominate markets and that we're in an Emperor's New Clothes world. Today, everyone believes that market price levels are largely driven by monetary policy and that we are being played by politicians and central bankers using their words for effect rather than direct communication. No one requires convincing that markets are unsupported by real world economic activity. Everyone believes that this will all end badly, and the only real question is when."
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Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Is the U.S. Dollar and Stock Market Ready to Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
How Today's Stock Market Valuations Compare to 2000 and What to Do About It / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Michael E. Lewitt writes: Opinions on stock market valuations flow easily around Wall Street, too often without backing.
Looking at the typical measurement used to determine stock valuations, I'm increasingly cautious.
Indeed, some of the numbers are downright scary just now, both in nominal value and in terms of red-light factors blinking on the horizon.
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Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Stock Market Investors What's Your Exit? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Are you prepared for an “exit”? If the Fed pursues an “exit” from ultra low interest rate policy, are you prepared for an exit from the stock market should things turn South? We discuss how investors prepare, noting the most common mistakes investors make along the way.
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Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Stock Market Mirror Image Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
In the preserved, written work of George Lindsay, Lindsay makes several references to an approach he calls “mirror image”. Unfortunately, the most he ever wrote was that he had never explained it in writing but hoped to someday. If he did, it has been lost to time. This is why the topic has not appeared in any of my three books about his work.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Market Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.
– Albert Einstein
Genius is a rising stock market.
– John Kenneth Galbraith
Any plan conceived in moderation must fail when circumstances are set in extremes.
– Prince Metternich
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Stock Market Strong Start to Jackson Hole Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The S&P 500 rallied at the open and drifted higher to its 0.87% intraday high during the lunch hour. It then traded in a narrow range to its 0.85% close. The popular press attributes the gain to reduced tensions in Ukraine. It also comes in advance of potential Fed signals in Wednesday’s release of the FOMC minutes for their July meeting and more significantly, from the Fed’s Jackson Hole summit that starts on Thursday. The index is up 6.67% year-to-date and only 0.82% off its record close.
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Monday, August 18, 2014
Why Short Stock Traders Are Losing Money This Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
One thing I have talked about several times which cannot be understated is that is the tendency for investors to believe that complex trading ideas and automated trading systems are better than simple, logical ones.
At first thought this notion is completely understandable. After all, if an idea is fairly simple, how could it possibly be "a secret" and investors not using it yet?
Monday, August 18, 2014
Stock Market Rally May be Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Minute Wave [c] now appears to be complete at the top of its trend channel. In Cycle measure, the Minor Wave 1 decline took 60 hours to its 1911.45 low, while Minor Wave 2 has taken 56 (55.9) hours. We’ll have a better indication of the completeness of the retracement after SPX declines beneath its 50-day Moving Average at 1958.72 and the bottom trendline of its trading channel at 1948.00.
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Monday, August 18, 2014
Understand and Profit from Surging European Volatility / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Peter Krauth writes: With the Ukraine conflict advancing to new and dangerous territory, Russia refuses to take Western sanctions lying down.
Led by autocrat Putin, the former Soviet nation is striking back, and as of mid-day Friday the blows remained primarily economic.
And that's where I want to focus today...
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Monday, August 18, 2014
Stock Market New Highs Less Certain / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - Correction appears to be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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