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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, March 08, 2019

Stock Market Downward Reversal? Stocks Still Relatively Close to Their Recent Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Tuesday's advance. However, the market remained at its recent local lows. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Wednesday, retracing their Tuesday's advance, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday, before reversing its intraday advance and getting back below the 2,800 level. The market continued to fluctuate close to the previous medium-term local highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,800-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at around 2,765-2,770, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

The Exponential Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

Whilst all bull markets eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Telling Us - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this report we talked about and showed you what commodities and transports where doing in relation to each other. Here in Part II, we show you in detail what we expect to take place.

This final chart highlights our Custom Smart Cash Index (in BLUE) as well as the CBOE Commodity Index pricing levels (in RED).  This data goes all the way back to 2012 and highlights a number of key pricing rotations.  First, we can see that Commodities have been decreasing in total value from 2012 till mid-2017.  We can also identify a key support level that was established in the Commodities Index near the beginning of 2016 – coinciding just a month or so before the bottom in the Smart Cash Index.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

It’s been almost 10 years since this bull market began. What an incredible run. Despite all the doom-and-gloom news reports, this bull market has been impressive. (And no, it’s not because of “evil government manipulation”).

To put this into perspective, someone who bought at the top in 2007 would still have doubled their money (after including dividends reinvested).

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018

The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.

The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Stock Market’s Rally Slowing Down. Expect a Surge in Volatility? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market’s nonstop rally is slowing down, with the S&P 500 below its 10 day moving average for the first time in 41 days. The short-medium term outlook is mixed right now, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong edge (although there is a slight short term bearish lean). Meanwhile, there’s a >50% probability that volatility will spike in the next few weeks.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Stock Market Beware The Ides Of March / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

While there is some religious significance in Roman culture, the Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC at a meeting of the Roman Senate.

At the time, a seer named Plutarch (some claim that the seer was named Spurinna) had warned that something would happen to Caesar by that date. For those that know their Shakespeare, on his way to the Theatre of Pompey, where he would be assassinated, Caesar supposedly passes the seer and joked “The Ideas of March are come,” implying that the prophecy had not been fulfilled, to which the seer replied “Aye, Caesar; but not gone.”

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Gold and Stocks Bear Market Rallies: The Nascent Narcotic / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger reflects on the implications of recent market moves. The 2018-2019 bear market rally that we identified during the last week of 2018 via the 2019 Forecast Issue, entitled "2019: Mayhem, Misallocation and the Mockery of True Price Discovery," is now on record as one of the most ferocious rallies ever recorded, as short sellers are being carried out on stretchers and in body bags left, right and center. The youngsters out there who think their new and highly sophisticated analytical software will guide them through this minefield of intervention and deceit have obviously forgotten (or conveniently ignored) the immortal phrase from the lips of the legendary Marty Zweig, "Don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed."

Earlier this month, I did fight the tape and the Fed by shorting the S&P 500 slightly beneath the 200-dma (daily moving average) at 2,738, placing the stop-loss at a 2-day close over 2,755. This resulted in a modest haircut of 23 S&P points and an ample serving of humility. I now have Marty's picture up on my wall right above the monitor to remind me that only in free markets can you use the old tools from preintervention eras.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 05, 2019

What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Are Telling Us / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices.  These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets.  When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy.  When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies.  When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase.

Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”.  Let’s get into the research.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 04, 2019

SPX: New All-Time Highs or Bust? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In my article last weekend, "Another Fibonacci Price and Time Intersection Approaches Heading into a Week Fraught with Headline Uncertainty," I discussed the importance of the intersecting time (Mon Feb 25) and price (2803.50 1% on the S&P 500) as a potential resistance area and reversal zone.

I noted that on Mon Feb 25, the rally from the Dec 26 low would equal 62% of the time spent in the Sep-Dec correction. And that the level of 2803.50 ( 1% = 2775 to 2832) represented the Fibonacci 76.4% recovery of the entire September-December decline.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 04, 2019

Elliott Wave Analysis of the OEX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: WavePatternTraders

Short term whilst it remains above 1220 the current trend remains up. There a few short term ideas I am watching, but if a new high is seen, then it can suggest the end to wave [v] of an impulse wave (5 wave rally) to end wave C of a larger zigzag correction (3 wave advance) from the Dec 2018 low.
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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 04, 2019

Stock Market VIX Likely to Pop Before March 21 / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers believe price cycles and our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting the US and Global stock markets may be entering a period of price rotation very soon.  Our team of researchers has identified a date span of between March 5th to March 13 as a range of dates where we expect the VIX to form a bottom and begin to rise sharply.

Our researchers believe this current rally in the US stock market is a bit overextended, even though the markets appear to be drifting a bit higher currently.  We believe the US stock market is due for a healthy price rotation/correction sometime near the middle of March that will allow new price valuation and momentum to build for a continued upside price move.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 04, 2019

Stock Market Trade Optimism Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave?  Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Initial rally is likely coming to an end.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 03, 2019

Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 / Stock-Markets / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield Curve Inversion

An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 01, 2019

Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession. And if that were not bad enough we have the train wreck that is BrExit, not the decision to LEAVE the European Union but rather the failure of the UK government / Parliament to implement BrExit in a competent manner, far from it, Parliament has been paralysed with the UK government look set to beg the EU for an extension to Article 50. Nevertheless the major stock indices such as the Dow and the FTSE have SOARED! Confounding not just the usual perma doom merchants out there but much of the mainstream press because most of that which the press peddles has been BAD NEWS!

(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 01, 2019

Market Forecasting You Just Cant Beat! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen walks you through the financial markets every morning before the opening bell so you know how to trade it and manage your positions.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 28, 2019

More Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty as Investors Await Economic Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were mixed again on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index continues to trade at the 2,800 resistance level. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.1% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday. It got closer to the previous local highs along the 2,800 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% yesterday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the previous medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 2,765-2,780, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous Friday's daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

The Next Big Stock Market Indicator: Unemployment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Harry_Dent

I’m always on the lookout for leading indicators that can give us an edge over erratic, irrational markets.

There are a lot of them.

Some are complicated, like the popular composite index from the Conference Board. It includes average weekly hours by manufacturing workers, initial applications for unemployment, new manufacturing orders for consumer goods, speed of delivery from suppliers to vendors, new orders for capital goods, new residential building permits, S&P 500 stock index, inflation-adjusted money supply (M2), spread between long- and short-term rates, and consumer sentiment.
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Stock Market Beware of Confirmation Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

Albert Einstein once said: “Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions."

To Mr. Einstein, it was quite clear that people have their biases, and it is extremely rare that they are able to disassociate themselves from those biases, if ever. It is for this reason that investor seek out analysts who provide support to their pre-determined biases. We call this bias confirmation. And, almost every investor you speak to is afflicted with this condition.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Slowing Stock Market Rally, What's Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

For the first time since the stock market’s bottom in December 2018, the S&P has closed in the bottom 1/3 of its daily range for 2 consecutive days. In other words, the stock market’s rally is slowing down.

Meanwhile, the housing market continues to deteriorate. Housing is a key leading indicator for the economy and stock market.

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