Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
The Stock Market Chart No One of CNBC Wants You to See / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
In the last two months every single Fed Hawk has given up on normalization.
Every. Single. One.
Throughout 2018 Fed Chair Powell maintained that he was focused EXCLUSIVELY on normalizing Fed policy by:
1) Reducing its Balance Sheet to pre-crisis levels of ~$1 trillion, a whopping $3.5 trillion lower than the $4.5 trillion it was when Powell took the helm at the Fed.
2) Raising interest rates to the neutral rate (the rate of GDP growth/ inflation).
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes a moderately mild price rotation will unfold over the next 30 to 60 days where the US Stock Market will rotate downward. Particularly, the $INDU (Dow Jones Industrials) should move lower towards the $23,000 to 24,000 before finding support based on the longer term weekly chart. Keep in mind we are not saying the price is going to fall. We are stating price could correct in a big way if recent support levels are broken. If so, then 23,000-24,000 levels should be reviewed.
We have been warning about a specific price pattern that we believe is currently in the process of setting up in the US Stock Market. This pattern is a “Falling Wedge” pattern. We’ve seen a few of these over the past 5+ years in downward retracing price swings. They typically act as a means for the price to explore a “momentum base” setup before breaking out to the upside. You can read our previous research here.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the stock market rallies, it never ceases to amaze me how popular crash-analogues can be. The 1937 analogue has been quite popular recently, constantly shared and reshared on social media and trading blogs.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Stock Market Ready for Take-Off? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Is the S&P 500 (SPX) on the verge of a sustained upside breakout as it pushes through multiple prior failed rally peaks just above 2800? This week should provide some answers.
Actually, a sustained climb above 2832 (on a closing basis) also will answer the question we have been asking in these weekly articles for the past four weeks: Will the powerful advance from the Dec 26 low at 2346.58 be stymied in the 2775 to 2832 resistance zone?
This zone is the area that measures 76.4% of the entire prior Sep-Dec correction -- what we're calling the "Fibonacci Recovery Price Resistance Zone" -- and in the last 20 trading days the SPX has probed but failed to hurdle the upper boundary (2832) of this zone no less than five times!
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's my quick look at the VIX
VIX
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: EWI
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This research post highlights what we believe to be a unique price anomaly setup in many of the US major markets this week. Our research
suggests that April 21, or near this date, will be an important price inflection point base level for the US stock markets. We believe a unique price base will begin to form near this date and a bigger price move in May/June 2019 will unfold.
Our Advanced Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system is suggesting the rotation in the US stock market may stay somewhat muted before this move on April 21 begins. The ADL predictive modeling system is one of our proprietary price modeling utilities that our research uses to identify key levels of future support and resistance as well as to watch for “price anomalies” that setup. Price anomalies are where the current price level of any symbol is greatly diverted from the ADL predictive price level. When this happens, the price will usually “revert” back to near the ADL levels at some point in the immediate future – sometimes setting up a great trading opportunity.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
The Coming Stocks Bear Market Will Be Especially Painful for the Boomers / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Mauldin
My back-of-the-napkin math says retirement accounts are at least 50% invested in equity index funds.
Some of you are now asking, “What’s the problem? All those index funds have come back. Everybody is back to where they started.”
Not so fast, Jack.
Monday, March 18, 2019
Is The Stock Market Finally Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head.
The main argument by Fed watchers is that the Fed’s easy money drives the stock market. Yet, the Fed's balance sheet peaked at $4.52 trillion in January of 2015 and is down over 12% from that peak. Yet, the stock market has added over 40% since the Fed’s balance sheet peaked. Remember how often we were told by the Fed watchers that a shrinking Fed balance sheet would lead to a stock market crash? Well, it certainly did, but not in the direction most expected.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Split Stock Market Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Warning from leading indexes. Top of B-wave possible.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Chinese Data Has Delayed Effect on Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the previous two segments of this research post PART I, PART II, we’ve hypothesized that the recent Chinese economic data and the resulting global shift to re-evaluate risk factors within China/Asia are prompting global traders/investors to seek protective alternative investment sources. Our primary concern is that a credit/debt economic contraction event may be on the cusp of unfolding over the next 12~24 months in China/Asia. It appears that all of the fundamental components are in place and, unless China is able to skillfully navigate through this credit contraction event, further economic fallout may begin to affect other global markets.
Monday, March 18, 2019
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my sixth video in a series to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market Dow Stocks Index covering the period from March 2019 to September 2019.
December 2018 saw panic hit the stock market on the failure of the Santa rally to materialise, as those who had bet on such a widely anticipated rally (including myself) were forced to sell out which sent the Dow plunging below support of 23,400 to a low of 21,700. Which is a reminder that we are dealing with the FUTURE, which is UNWRITTEN. So there is always a risk that the market is not going to resolve in the anticipated direction no matter how confident one is at the time that it will.
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Saturday, March 16, 2019
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P remains stuck at its 2810 resistance level. Meanwhile, various economic indicators are flashing warning signs but not immediately bearish signs. Towards the end of a bull market, it’s very hard to know exactly how much gas there is left in the bull market’s tank. That’s why it’s better to focus on risk-reward instead of timing exact tops and bottoms.
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Saturday, March 16, 2019
Is The Brexit Debacle Going To Crash The Stock Market ... Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
We are often directed to think that the market reacts in the same manner as Newtonian physics. We believe that a news event which accompanies a market move was certainly the “cause” of that market move. But, how often have we seen markets react in the exact opposite manner in which the substance of the news event suggests?
While science has moved away from Newtonian physics, stock market analysts have not.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Deflationary Assets are Outperforming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
During the current bull market, deflationary assets (industrials, technology, financials, communication, consumer discretionary and real estate) have greatly outperformed inflationary assets (commodities) for most of these past 10 years.
Martin Pring's Deflation/Inflation Index (Chart 1) illustrates that deflationary assets have largely outperformed inflationary assets from late 2011 to the beginning of 2016 and again from mid-2018 to the present.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Our Incredible Price Anomaly Setup in the Nasdaq Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
research team has been alerting our followers to a potentially deep price retracement setting up in the NQ and other US stock market majors. Although the recent price activity has pushed to newer recent highs this week, as you will see in the chart below, our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system is suggesting that a “price anomaly” has set up.
These types of price anomalies are indicative of when price moves in an extended way outside of or away from the ADL predicted price levels. On the chart below, of NQ (NASDAQ), you’ll see the current setup with the predicted price anomaly highlighted as a RED SQUARE. This NQ ADL price pattern consists of 13 unique previous ADL instances and suggests there is a greater than 65% likelihood the prices will fall towards the 6700 level in the NQ over the next few days.
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their uptrend on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October yesterday. But will the rally continue despite some short-term technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.6-0.7% on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% yesterday. The market is now close to the previous medium-term local highs following an intraday rally to the new medium-term high of 2,821.24. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 4.4% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,815-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,795-2,800, marked by the yesterday's daily gap up of 2,798.32-2,799.78. The support level is also at 2,785, marked by the Tuesday's daily gap up of 2,784.00-2,786.73.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
As I now provide analysis to over 5000 subscribers between my services on Elliottwavetrader, The Market Pinball Wizard, and FATrader, I am the beneficiary of much feedback from various segments of the financial markets. In fact, since we have over 500 money manager clients, I see a lot of what the predominant thinking is on “the street.”
Of late, I have been pointing to the potential for the dollar to rise to the region of 99-100DXY and TLT to take us up towards the 131-136 region. And, it seems many on “the street” are on the wrong side of the boat on this one. In fact, when I wrote a recent article on the TLT potentially rallying quite strongly in the coming months, I experienced quite a bit of pushback in the comment section to that article.
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