Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Are Stocks In a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks sold off on Thursday, as Central Banks signaled more tightening ahead. Is this a new downtrend?The S&P 500 index lost 2.49% on Thursday, as it extended its short-term downtrend after breaking below the 4,000 level. The market continued to react on Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. Yesterday it went the lowest since November 10.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market Indexes Rejected At Resistance Signal Another Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Stocks struggled with overhead resistance for the past week. While seasonal trends usually favor a year-end rally, this year’s rally may already have finished.
January will be the month to watch. If the market closes with a positive January, we almost always have a strong year for stocks. But if not, we could be in for a doozy of a bear market in the first half of 2023.
This week we had more hawkish Fed talk on Wednesday, suggesting that rates will remain higher for a longer period of time. This week’s economic reports for November showed a drop in retail sales and manufacturing, which raises concern that the economy is weakening.
Falling bond yields are also hinting at a recession in 2023, as are falling commodity prices. Stock indexes look to have had an exhaustion gap higher, followed by heavy institutional selling after the CPI data came out. This further confirms my thinking that money managers are unloading shares into every rally possible before the next major leg down for stocks.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stock Market Tough Inflation Stance Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to adjust the restrictive Fed funds rate level higher if justified – and household inflation expectations coupled with the still hot and tight labor market, provide him with enough work so that the expectations don‘t become unanchored. Note that the Fed is taking on a supply issue coupled with excess demand, through demand destruction.
The resulting selloff merely illustrates the degree of liquidity junkie condition markets are in, looking for cheap money. The no surprise 50bp hike yesterday and then 25bp Jan and Mar, would only get Fed funds rate to 5.00% while I see them taking it to 5.50% slowly, and keeping it there. That‘s hardly a pivot or pause – only a decelaration in rate hikes pace while the effects of tightening are gradually playing out, with housing and manufacturing more than teetering already.
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Stock Margin Debt, Market Breadth and Investor Sentiment Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will there be an Early Fed Pivot?
Well all of these dollars flooding into the US are going to push up asset prices / generate economic activity, so a strong dollar is also acting to mute the Fed's actions and thus Jerome Powell could deliver on what his dot plot implies i.e. that the Fed funds rate rises to 4.75% during Q1 2023 which means continuing dollar strength and pain for most economies and downwards pressure on stock prices. Though stock prices tend to discount the future and so are factoring in the possibility of 4.75% in today's stock prices rather than wait for March 2023, following which the Fed's Dots suggest rates falling to 2.5%. Though the Fed dot plots are virtually always wrong 1 year out.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Banzai CPI and Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where they started from in what appears the correct big picture view of being on the lookout to get short as betting it all on a strong Santa Claus rally has the appeal of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller without more USD retreat juice. I really liked the precious metals performance with miners increasingly confirming the upswing, with both metals doing increasingly well. Let alone copper and oil...
Where does that land us in stocks today? The weak follow through has me on toes, this inability to defend 4,070. I doubt we would overcome my long ago touted 4,130 obstacle later today as Powell dutifully delivers a no surprise statement. Conference is a volatility wildcard.
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Monday, December 12, 2022
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)A Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This stocks bear market has been far less volatile than previous bear markets where the often voiced wait for capitulation moment has just flat out failed to materialise i.e. a VIX spike to above 45, instead each new low has failed to even reach 40. Nor is the significance of any decline reflected in the VIX peaks. So whilst many inexperienced investors may cry crash and collapse in fear on every down day, however this stocks bear market has so far been highly orderly, technical even as though a machine intelligence is at work behind the scene milking the market of money like a cash cow. The VIX range of 35 to 20 is very orderly given MSM and blogosfear noise, too calm for my liking i.e. most of the swings have not been volatile enough to capitalise upon.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Intel Empire Strikes Back! The IMPOSSIBLE Stocks Bull Market Begins! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Liz Truss the kiss of Death is GONE! She would have gone earlier but had to keep her mouth shut for her the first two weeks of her dire premiership due to the death of the Queen. Rishi is the parties choice and there was speculation that Boris Macbeth Johnson was about to make a come back after flying in from his Caribbean Island to return to power barely weeks after being kicked out of No 10 by his own party. But no more, after reading the writing on the wall Boris has decided his return to power would have blown the Tory party apart, triggering a general election that would have seen the Tories wiped out. Maximum political uncertainty at a time of of MAXIMUM economic and market distress with Inflation soaring into the stratosphere sending ALL nations teetering on the brink of collapse and NOT just the UK. ALL are suffering the consequences of the US sucking the world dry of Dollars like Sagittarius A* stripping orbiting stars of their economic mass which as I stated in my previous article could usher in an abrupt halt to the Fed's taken for granted rate hike cycle to 5%, a pivot of sorts so as to avoid a headlong plunge into Financial Crisis 2.0, that's if Fed members have any sense between their ears.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Portfolio Convenctial Wisdom 60% stocks, 40% bonds? Ha! / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: EWI
In his February 2022 book, Last Chance to Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter said:
Countless advisors have counseled "diversification," a "balanced portfolio" and other end-all solutions to the problem of allocating your investments. These approaches are delusional. ... No investment strategy will provide stability forever.
That certainly has applied to the classic 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio this year.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
How Bear Markets DIE - Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
S&P 500 Sold Off Again - Is This Still Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices suffered another sharp decline yesterday – is this a change of trend?The S&P 500 index lost 1.44% on Tuesday, as the broad stock market continued its Monday’s 1.8% sell-off. It reacted to Monday’s better-than-expected ISM Services PMI release. On Thursday the S&P 500 reached new local high of 4,100.51, and on yesterday it went closer to the 3,900 level.
This morning the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.3% lower after an overnight decline of more than 1%. We may see a short-term rebound following the recent declines. It still looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. However, the index broke below its two-month-long upward trend line yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently today's stock market sentiment is the most bearish since the March 2009 low! Which implies the end of the bear market is imminent. However there could be a double dip lower low.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock market top, since which has closely tracked the markets decline so is not showing any obvious positive nor negative deviation, a case of continuing to keep ones eye on it for a similar cues.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: The Coming Week Will Tell Us How We Get To 4300SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Early on in the week, the US markets declined and the supposed reason for such decline was due to the Covid lockdowns and mass protests of such in China. Yet, the Chinese markets surged strongly at the same time. And, this had many people scratching their heads.
Furthermore, right before we began the mid-week surge towards our next higher target/resistance, Powell gave a wonderful speech during which is he basically did not say anything different than what the market already knew. Yet, of course, pundits were quick to point to the speech as the reason we rallied to the next resistance/target.
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Saturday, December 03, 2022
Stock Market and Margin Debt Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
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Thursday, December 01, 2022
US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! Stealth Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Stock Market Valuation Reset and Future EPS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets trend between a state of over valuation and under valuation in earnings terms, hence my warnings to expect a valuation reset during most of the second half of 2021 which means regardless of what happens to the economy THIS bear market WAS inevitable! And it HAS come to PASS to great extent where many of the most over valued stocks have HALVED in price and not just the usual suspects but the likes of AMD and TSMC! AMAZON! And so on.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
After This Holiday Stock Market Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.
We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold.
Let’s dive in.
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