Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Stocks Break Downward In Afternoon Trading / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The afternoon price breakdown in the YM (Down Futures) continues to confirm our recent analysis. We authored a three-part research post near mid-May discussing how the global tensions would likely play out in the global stock markets. We also authored another, more recent, research post about how the US stock markets would likely find weakness as news is digested after the US Memorial Day holiday weekend. If we go far enough back in our research, we can find a very interesting research post from March 31, 2019, where our research team suggested July 2019 would be a key date for a potential market top formation.
Today, we are going to focus on the downside price rotation that is happening in the YM (Dow Futures) and how it points to an extended sideways Pennant/Flag price formation over the next few weeks before a breakdown move may cause havoc in the markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Stock Market Sell In May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
In this report we will look at the state of the stock market and update the condition of a potential bottom in the gold space.
Sell in May and Go Away
You have all heard this Wall Street ditty before and it is now upon us at this moment. Despite this old market rule being an established truism, few actually use it to make money. Instead the daily market action draws investors back into the market typically in search of that illusory “Summer Rally”. Instead they typically find themselves in the stock market’s “Summer Doldrums”. I can’t quote the exact statistics, however if one was to simply sell in May and stay out of the market until the typical October weakness, then go back in whole hog his returns would greatly outpace the returns of the market itself. So the sell in May phenomenon is real. Let’s try to use it to our advantage.
Time to Start Sharpening our Knives
This means it’s time to begin shorting the market… selectively that is. I have shown in the past that shorting is most profitable if one holds off until the second half of a bear market. That’s because the market starts providing decent follow through on the downside. We are not there yet since it’s still early on in phase I of the bear market, however selective shorts can be taken when a set-up presents itself. Later on in this report I will present a few short sale set-ups.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
This 1 Investment strategy could change your future - eBook inside / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Submissions
....
Monday, May 27, 2019
US Memorial Day Weekend Market Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Memorial Day weekend is set up to become a very interesting time for investors. The EU voting is complete and the change in EU leadership may move the markets a bit. China appears to be playing a waiting game – attempting to hold the US/Trump at bay until after the 2020 US elections. This week is certain to be very interesting for traders/investors.
The European stocks moved higher in trading on Monday as the relief from the EU election event and support for auto shares pushed the markets higher. The transition in the EU over the next few months will solidify into a political and social agenda. The EU leadership must acknowledge these future objectives of all parties in order to maintain some level of calm. It is evident that many EU nations are relatively satisfied with the current leadership while others are transitioning into more centrist leadership. The next 4+ years will be full of further transition in the EU.
China is another global issue that is relatively unsettled. We’ve been doing some research with regards to China and the potential future political and economic pathways that may become evident in the near-term future. Our biggest concern is that China has been inflating their economic levels for decades and the true scope of the Chinese economy may be much weaker than everyone expects. If our suspicions are correct and China has been inflating economic levels for many years, then the transition to a consumer/services-driven economy may be dramatically over-inflated and the US/China trade issues could be biting much harder than the Chinese want to admit.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 27, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a Long Term Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been choppy over the past 3 weeks, with trade-related sectors and markets much worse-off than the overall U.S. stock market. From a longer term perspective, the U.S. stock market has gone nowhere since 2018. This begs the question “is the market making a long term top??
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 27, 2019
Stock Market Rally Over – Downtrend Resumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. Can’t tell yet if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 27, 2019
Stock Market Crash Warning - The Trap Door Has Opened / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I love reading about all the good news in the market. This past week, we saw U.S. jobless claims dip to 211,000, and they are now near half-century lows. We also saw U.S. consumer sentiment reach a 15-year high. So, what could go wrong?
Well, as Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, noted:
. . . financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons.
Moreover, the fact that consumer sentiment is hitting major highs is often a warning to the financial markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 26, 2019
Global Multi-Market / Asset Charts Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
First off, a wish to all readers for a happy Memorial Day weekend as we remember loved ones lost in battle and otherwise. Memorial is not a US thing, it’s an everybody thing.
Today we take a look at various markets and assets using daily charts of the associated ETFs.
The real work in determining the state of the markets going forward will be done by evaluating internals measures like sector leadership (e.g. our SOX>NDX>SPX leadership chain), inter-market and inter-asset ratios (e.g. our ongoing gold ratios analysis), macro indicators (e.g. the recent notable drop in inflation expectations) and a whole host of other hidden markers to be tracked and updated (NFTRH is constantly on that job looking forward to the potentials, as opposed to in review or in rear-view). Also, let’s not forget sentiment analysis, which led us to the current correction. It will also come into play going both ways in the weeks and months ahead.
But sometimes it’s fun to just check out the charts and see what we see.
Beginning right here in the US with the broad market, SPY is in a small potential Head & Shoulders pattern, with an alternate left shoulder should it turn out to be what self-important TAs like to call a “complex H&S”. That would create a larger H&S scenario with a lower target, which we’ll reserve for NFTRH if the time comes to activate this still unconfirmed H&S. The dashed neckline is shown for the little guy and should the big one come into play the black SMA 200 could act as a neckline there.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 24, 2019
China Hang Seng Stocks Index Collapses and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Chinese Hang Seng Index collapsed early this week to new recent lows. This breakdown in the Chinese major stock index highlights the anticipated fallout from the continued US/China trade war. Recent data from the Chinese property market and corporate bond markets suggest a broad slowdown in economic activity which may surprise many foreign investors in the weeks/months to come.
Partner this continued economic weakness with the EU Elections and the continued US/China trade issues and we almost have a perfect storm for commodities such as Oil, Copper and other industrial/transportation related shares. If the trade continues to collapse between the US/China while elections cause the general populations to “pause” in traditional spending habits, it would suggest that we could see a continued breakdown in the general commodity levels over the next 6~12+ months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 24, 2019
Stocks Topping, Dollar Up, Gold Getting Closer - AUDIO / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen joined us today. He believes that the stock market is topping out if it hasn’t already. This will lead to increased volatility and a move back to safe haven assets, i.e. gold. He believes that oil will break down briefly into the ’50s and then come roaring back shortly thereafter. The bigger and faster the decline, the fast the bounce back. Interest rates are headed lower.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies / Stock-Markets / BlockChain
By: Axel_Merk
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Later in today’s program we’ll hear from Axel Merk of Merk Investments. Axel breaks down the trade war with China and gives us some keen insights on the likely strategy being employed by President Donald Trump there, and also tells us why he sees inflationary pressures returning in the economy and the affects it will have on gold prices. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the highly respected Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.
As markets continue to gyrate on global trade and tariff threats, precious metals are struggling to capture investor interest.
Lately, the big push in alternative assets has been in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has doubled in price over the past two months, though it remains well below its old high.
Gold was the sole metal to show strength amidst the recent selloff in stocks. However, its momentum petered out mid week and turned lower on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold prices are down 0.8% for the week to trade at $1,277 an ounce.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks retraced some of their short-term rebound on Friday, as investors’ sentiment worsened once again. The S&P 500 index bounced off the nearest important resistance level of around 2,890-2,900. Will stocks resume their downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.4-1.0% on Friday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors’ sentiment worsened again. On Monday a week ago the S&P 500 index fell the lowest since late March, and it got very close to the 2,800 mark (daily low at 2,801.43). Then it rebounded to the resistance level of around 2,890-2,900. It currently trades 3.2% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,880-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920-2,930. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,850. The support level is also at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the recent local lows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 20, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 20, 2019
A Brief History of Financial Entropy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
The global economy began an experiment with fiscal and monetary alchemy when it exited the gold standard almost 50 years ago.
In 1971 the USD completely separated from the last vestiges of its tether to gold. In effect, it released the worldwide monetary system from any limitations of base money growth, as it was no longer pegged to the increase in the mine supply of gold. This is because the USD was once linked to gold and the rest of the developed world linked their currencies to the dollar. This was the case ever since The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944.
Therefore, when the U.S. severed the link to gold, the world entered into its doomed experiment with global fiat currencies and began its journey down the road to financial entropy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 20, 2019
Are You Being Tossed Around By The China News? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
As I watched and traded the market action over the last several weeks, I witnessed something quite amazing. Yet, this was not the first time I have seen this.
Each time the market was set up for a smaller change of directional move, a news event or a “tweet” seemed to have come out at almost the exact time we need to see the market change direction.
While many saw the news as affecting the market direction, I saw the news as fitting into the market cycle.
I guess it is a matter of perspective, right?
Well, I am quite certain that many of you are thinking to yourself – “boy, that Avi is really foolish. It was clearer than the nose on my face that the negative China news caused the market to drop, whereas seemingly good China news caused the market to then rally.” And, if one takes a very superficial view of the market, one may come to that conclusion. However, I am attempting to open your minds to a much more mature and accurate perspective on how to view markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 19, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. Can’t tell yet if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 19, 2019
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are now within spitting distance of a top.
Our target for the bounce is anywhere in the red box… stocks will likely enter that range today as Wall Street engages in its usual options expiration games. The perfect top would be a backtest of the former rally’s trendline (red line), but in investing things are rarely perfect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 19, 2019
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have been pouring over the charts and data to identify what is likely to happen over the next 60+ days in terms of global stock market volatility vs. the US stock market expectations. Recently, we posted a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system on the Transportation Index (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/markets-rally-hard-is-the-volatility-move-over/). This research suggests we are still going to experience increased price volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and that price rotation may become somewhat of a normal expectation throughout the rest of 2019.
We believe the key to understanding price volatility over the next 30+ days lies in understanding the potential causes of uncertainty and capital shifts that are taking place around the globe.
Next week, On May 23~26, 2019, the European Elections take place (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/european-elections-2019-uk-vote-date-results/). This voting encompasses all 26 EU nations where all 753 European Parliament seats may come into question. The biggest issues are BREXIT and continue EU leadership and economic opportunities for members. The contentious pre and post-election rancor could drive wild price swings in the global markets over the next 10+ days.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 18, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 17, 2019
Deflationary Assets Surge in Performance Over Inflationary Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
Deflationary assets (financials, technology, industrials, healthcare and consumer products) are outperforming inflationary assets (commodities), once again.
Deflationary sectors have been dominant over inflationary assets for most of the last seven years. Outside of the short-term surge in performance from commodities in 2016, deflationary assets have held the top performance spot for most of the period from 2012 to 2019.
Read full article... Read full article...