Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 26, 2019
Are Stock Market’s Internals Sending Bearish Warnings? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the stock market at all-time highs, many market pundits have noted that relatively few stocks are making new highs. In their minds, this supports the bearish narrative that “relatively few stocks are holding this stock market rally together, and sooner or later the house of cards will come tumbling down”.
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Friday, April 26, 2019
Financial Stocks Setting Up An Island Top Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to scan the charts for setups and trigger to alert our followers, we’ve come across a setup that may be more ominous than what it appears. Recently we’ve posted articles about how the SPY and the NQ have pushed into new all-time high price territory and how Gold is setting up for a momentum base that should launch precious metals to near highs. We’ve also discussed how we believe the current upside price bias in the US stock markets should last another 10~35+ days before new price weakness sets up – possibly pushing prices lower in late May or early June 2019.
Our research team has been scanning the charts looking for anything that could give us an edge to the potential setup for this price weakness in the future. We believe the Transportation Index and the Financials could be keys to understanding how far the upside rally can continue and when a price peak may begin to warn of a potential price top or rollover.
An Island Top is a pattern that sets up with an upside price gap followed by sideways price action above that gap. In theory, this type of setup should promote the gap to be filled with downside price action before any further upside price move can continue. Although, gaps to the upside are fairly common in strong uptrends. Given the strength of the earnings data released early this week and the expectations that we have for some continued upside price bias over the next 10~35+ days, we are watching these Island Top formation in the Financials for any signs of weakness to alert our followers.
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Friday, April 26, 2019
SPX Goldilocks Now, But She’ll Be Vanquished / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us – in hindsight – that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous to be bullish on the Christmas Eve massacre low, right on up to the 50 day moving average, which was the original target.
After that I was compelled by the market’s technicals to be bullish for a drive to the SMA 200, and then 2815 resistance, and then… a top-test. I not only felt not righteous with these compulsions, I felt a little soiled. Hey, it’s just a human (as opposed to a newsletter writer/market commentator) talking about human feelings.
There is a difference between being contrary and willingly bullish and being compelled to be bullish. I don’t like the feeling of that second thing very much. Anyway, there is a gap and do you know what? Last summer’s rally filled a similar gap (not shown here) from late January 2018, proceeded upward into a nice bull trap, and then October happened. FYI. The bears were disoriented and thus pissed all last summer. But any self respecting bull trap would by definition piss the bears off because it’s the same psychology that traps the bulls, only in reverse.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Stock Market Due for 9-10% Pull Back? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The December 24-26 low in the stock market finished an E-Wave xyz bullish flag, which itself was likely an X wave of larger degree. The move up to all time highs within only 4 months of a 20% pull back has been quite impressive. The xyz pattern is a very bullish e-wave pattern and the current Wave Y runs an abc type rally with “a” due in this general time frame. The 20-week low (“b”) is due around May 17-20 and it wouldn’t surprise me that an intermediate top forms shortly (within the next 1-4 trading sessions) and drops 9-10% into the mid May expected low. The 9 month top (“c” of Y) is due in early July and a move to above S&P 500 3100 would not surprise me at all, but like I said, a 9-10% pull back is likely first.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Dow Transportation Stocks Sector Is Testing Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The DOW Transportation Index continues to test resistance near $10,050 as earnings drive the NQ well past historical all-time highs. Our interest in the Transportation Index is because it acts as a fundamental indicator for the US and global economies in terms of future transportation/shipping expectations. When the Transportation Index rises, it is a good sign that business and consumers have faith in the future economy and the continued demand for goods to be supplied to retailers and distribution centers.
The fact that the TRAN is back to near December 2018 highs means we have reached an expected economic expansion level that equals that level just before Christmas 2018. A continued rally would push expectations even higher going into the Summer months. With earnings hitting the market hard today driving a strong rally in almost all the major US stock indexes, we are surprised that the TRAN did not move a bit higher on the news.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Next Potential Targets for Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) / Stock-Markets / Saudi Arabia
By: MarketsToday
Several weeks ago, the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) went right through the 61.2% Fibonacci retracement (potential resistance) of the long-term downtrend that started off the September 2014 peak of 11,159.50 and kept going. Year-to-date the index is up 17.5%.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The ES and NQ are very close to breaking out to new all-time highs this week and possibly over the next few weeks. The NQ is very close to these new high levels already. Traders must not take this move for granted as increased volatility and a very real chance for a price correction become even greater once we break into “new high territory”.
This upside move has taken almost 5 months to climb back from the December 2018 lows. It has been a very dramatic rally to say the least. We’ve seen dozens of professional analysts suggest the markets would rotate lower all the way up this rally. It seems as though everyone wanted to be right that the market top in October 2018 was going to be the start of something big. We were one of the few analysts that called the market accurately. Our September 17, 2018 analysis called for almost every leg of this price swing over the past 7+ months. We stuck by our research while others were skeptical and doubting our research. We stuck to it because we believe in our work and modeling tools.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Stock Market Pause Should Extend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 is ready for another pull-back which should be followed by a final high before a significant correction begins.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Friday, April 19, 2019
While You Were Distracted By Stocks, the Fed Made Its Move… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
This move in the markets is effectively finished… and the Fed’s secret plan is complete
The S&P 500 is right at the very tip of the rising bearish wedge formation I’ve been tracking since early January 2019.
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session was mixed, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. However, the S&P 500 was the highest since the early October yesterday, following last week’s breakout above the 2,900 level. Will the uptrend continue despite some technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Wednesday, as investors took short-term profits off the table following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% yesterday before reversing its intraday upward course. Last Friday it broke above the 2,900 level. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.4% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,900, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows.
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US stock markets took a nosedive early in the regular trading session after the QQQ briefly advanced to new All-Time Highs this morning. With the QQQ and other symbols nearing fresh new highs, traders should expect volatility to increase as trading systems and traders to look for any signs of a top to set up. As we start to cross into “new high territory”, some fear starts to come back into the markets and volatility is sure to increase.
The Russell 2000 took a pretty big hit today as you can see from the chart below. This move lower is still well within our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system’s bullish parameters and we’ve highlighted a “Support Zone” for our followers to understand where real price support is located. Any downside move below $152 would cause us to reconsider our bullish trend position, but right now this is nothing more than price rotation. Wait it out and look for opportunities when it bottoms.
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Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A very interesting price pattern is setting up in the financial sector that could lead to a very big move in the US & Global markets. Remember how in 2008-09, the Financial sector and Insurance sector were some of the biggest hit stock sectors to prompt a global market crisis? Well, the next few weeks and months for the financial sector are setting up to be critical for our future expectations of the US stock market and global economy.
Right now, many of the financial sector stocks are poised near an upper price channel that must be breached/broken before any further upside price advance can take place. The current trend has been bullish as prices have rallied off the December 2018 lows. Yet, we are acutely aware of the bigger price channels that could become critical to our future decision making. If there is any price weakness near these upper price channel levels and any downside price rotation, the downside potential for the price is massive and could lead to bigger concerns.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
Having trouble making sense of the market? Do you feel like you are living in some sort of a parallel universe where almost everything happening in the market seems to be the opposite of what you have learned should happen? You are not alone so let’s try to make some sense of it. This weekend I will present two possible outcomes for the stock market and the rational behind them. We will also look at some out of favorite stocks in a bull market.
I see myself more of a market strategist than anything else. What I have learned after actively watching the ebb and flow of markets for almost 40 years is that the simplest approach is typically the best approach for us mere mortals. Sure we may be able to score a few short term trades here and there, but the amount of effort and focus it takes makes it unrealistic to make it ones primary investment approach. It takes an investment professional to consistently make money as a trader. Those of us who work for a living are best served trying to ride a bull market and not get too wrapped up in the day to day motion of the market. But to ride a bull one must know an awful lot of things, because it takes an independent critical thinker to buy a bottom and sell somewhere near the top after a market fully expresses itself to the upside. He must be able to divorce himself from the crowd and believe in himself. He must be able to be comfortable being alone from time to time. To me the most important thing is to understand where the market is in the greater scheme of things. I say this because it is my personal approach to investment to find and be in a bull market and to avoid bear markets at all costs. My observation is that those who listen to Wall Street’s advice to be in the market at all times is suicide. Bear markets destroy investors and they ruin ones ability to ride the next bull market upward due to the psychological damage they incur.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s relentless rally continues. The S&P 500 (excluding dividends) is just 1% from a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index (including dividends) is already at an all-time high. While the chart may “look like” a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, these patterns are only clear with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Too many potential head-and-shoulders patterns don’t work out in real-time (i.e. false bearish signals). And by the time you wait for a “bearish confirmation” break of the neckline, the S&P is already down -20%.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Robert_Foss
Something unusual happened in the stock market recently.
A few weeks ago, a closely watched indicator, called the “yield curve,” inverted for the first time since the last recession.
This is a concrete sign the economy is slowing.
In fact, the yield curve has inverted before every recession over the past 50 years… but not immediately before, as I’ll explain in a moment.
Good news is, the yield curve inversion also means stocks should continue to rise for the next 12–18 months or so.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday’s trading session was bullish, as stocks broke above their short-term consolidation following the first quarterly earnings releases, among other factors. The S&P 500 index broke above the 2,900 level. Will the uptrend extend despite some technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.5-1.0% on Friday, breaking above the recent trading range, as investors’ sentiment improved following the first quarterly earnings releases, among other factors. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Friday. It broke above the 2,900 level. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.1% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,900, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2722 is ready for a pause
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Stocks Are Going to Stage a Truly VIOLENT Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
First and foremost, volume has slowed to a trickle. Two of the last four days saw trading volume at their absolute lowest since late September 2018: right before the last market meltdown started.
This is occurring right as the S&P 500 nears the completion of the bearish rising wedge formation that has been building since the December bottom.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Without too much attention from traders, the SPY and QQQ are racing to attempt to establish new all-time highs in what may become the most exciting Spring/Summer breakout rally of the past 3 years. While many other symbols are still flirting with November/December 2018 highs, the SPY and QQQ are both showing upside price gaps last week indicating a moderately strong price advancement is taking place. Additionally, both the SPY and the QQQ are already well above early 2018 peak levels.
If you were not paying attention, it sure looks like these two symbols are racing to be the first to break into “new all-time high levels” and shock the doomsayers (again) as we may see this rally continue for at least another 30 to 60 days.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Dow Jones Stock Index Gann Angle Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
The Dow Jones has its own manner, some stocks are fast, some stocks are slow and some are in between. No matter the powers behind the scenes Gann Angles will help the chartist with the 'Dow Jones Manner Watch'!
These charts provided by NorthmanTrader clearly showing the puppet master behind the scenes
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