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Friday, January 18, 2008

Stock and Commodity Market Forecasts 2008 - Enormous Investment Opportunities - Part I / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Ty_Andros

2008 is going to be one for the record books. Like a roller coaster or thrill ride at an amusement park, the economic and financial ups and downs will thrill you and chill you! The opportunities in this year, and the next ten years, are ENORMOUS and as big as ever witnessed in history as the globe evolves and globalization unfolds. As a billion people in the G7 pay the price for their FAILURE to learn history's lessons, ask questions of their elected officials and demand accountability. Three billion people in the emerging world stand poised to ascend to thriving economies and new middle classes on the recipe of that little known economic school of thought called AUSTRIAN economics.

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Friday, January 18, 2008

US Stock Markets Dome Top Signals Tragic End of the Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Clive_Maund

The large top area now forming in the main US stock market indices is now approaching completion. Given the horrifying fundamentals it is a wonder that they haven't broken down and gone into freefall already. Only 2 things have supported the market since the major financial crisis burst out into the open last August. One is massive injections of liquidity - money that was created artificially out of nowhere by the Fed and central banks worldwide in order to paper over the cracks and buy time, which must feed through into higher inflation.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Stock Markets Fall to Critical Support - The Moment of Truth? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Marty_Chenard

Are we approaching a "moment of truth"? ... where the market finds a bottom, or loses critical support that has a more serious down move?

Let's explore 3 charts where we can get an understanding of the juncture we have now come to.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Corporate Earnings Estimates for 2008 Defy Logic - Analysts Are Last to Embrace Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: Michael_Pento

What a start for the year! The S&P 500 began with its worst initial 5 trading day performance ever, Goldman Sachs joined the chorus of those who are predicting a recession for 2008, consumer confidence sunk to a record low of 56.3 and the Markit CDX North American Investment Grade series 9 index (a measure of corporate bond default risk) climbed to 100 basis points—the widest since the index's inception four years ago.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

2008 Asset Class Investment Outlook Studies Point to Commodities Out performance / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Chris_Ciovacco

2008 Off To Rocky Start
As we all know, asset markets do not like uncertainty. With SIVs (structured investment vehicles) and countless shaky mortgages floating through the financial system, uncertainty abounds. Since none of us know how bad things may get or how long this may last, adding some diversification to your portfolio might seem appealing. Below, is a brief look at the relative attractiveness of several asset classes based on what we know today and what we have experienced in the past. As in any environment, there is no perfect way to address the problems of the current day. However, some alternatives appear to be more attractive than others.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Casino Royale Investment Markets - The House Always Wins? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: Brian_Bloom

Let there be no misunderstanding. The “investment” markets across the globe have become like casinos and, in trying to make a buck in any of these markets, you are betting against the house. If you want commodity prices in general to rise, and the gold price in particular to rise, you can be sure that the house wants these prices to fall. If you want the price of industrial equities to fall, you can be sure that the house wants them to rise. Who will pocket the most winnings in this monstrous game of roulette?

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Investment Portfolios Face Destruction as Credit Crunch Intensifies / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Doug_Wakefield

Are The Levees Starting to Break? - “I have often stopped to ponder our human condition – specifically, our uncanny ability to dismiss the seriousness of an event beforehand and to lament our lack of preparation after it has happened. How many New Orleans residents stated, in some form or fashion, that they never expected the storm to break the levees? But, it's easy to see the rational behind their unresponsiveness. They had been through countless storms since the levees were first established and nothing that dire had ever happened.” – September 2006, The Investor's Mind: Too Costly to Bear

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Utility Stocks Stll Positive Trend / Stock-Markets / US Utilities

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My overall work is telling me to remain long the XLU unless it breaks below the January 4 pivot low at 41.86. It is with that in mind that I intend to ride out this pullback ahead of the emergence of a new upleg that propels the sector to new highs in the 45.50-46.00 area.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Energy and Financial Investing Themes 2008: A Tale of Two Halves - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Hans_Wagner

The beginning of a new year is a good time to make a new assessment of the important investment drivers and themes for the year. If you want to beat the market it is important to understand what is driving the markets and where the best sectors are to find good opportunities. By identifying these factors you will have a solid framework to assess the impact market movements and news events on your investment strategy. This is the first of a five part series on the outlook for the 2008 markets. The first part discussed the key drivers ending with a mention of what sectors will benefit and those that will be hurt. This Part discusses the Energy and Financial sectors. The remaining three parts will review each of the remaining sectors in more detail.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

How Do You Spell Stock Market Correction? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: Steve_Selengut

During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: "How low can we go?" and/or "How long will this last?" Investors who add to their portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher values during the next advance. Yes, Virginia, just as certainly as there is a Santa Claus, there is another market advance in our future. And despite a still much too high DJIA, we are in the seventh month of a correction. (The eighth month if you own income securities.)

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Stocks and Bond Market Forecasts for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Vacation and holidays have prevented the usual writing of the newsletter, so this will serve as the annual prognostication letter. First, the markets should start the year weak, employment will be poor and bond yields will be at their lowest in 4 years by mid-month. Oh, that has already happened…not bad predicting so far! The rest of the year won't be as easy, especially for financial markets. The persistent news revolving around credit and availability, write-offs and housing inventories should keep the markets on the defensive for much of the year. Last year we predicting a poor market – we were wrong until August.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Shadow Banking System Crumbling as Losses Double to $500 Billion / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System

By: John_Mauldin

This week look at a short but very important piece by Bill Gross. He has my same concern about credit default swaps, but he puts a number to it. He thinks the cost to the world economic system could be in the $250 billion dollar range. Add that to the $250 billion in losses due to the subprime markets, and you are starting to talk real money. The Shadow Banking System is at the center of the problem. I trust you will find this of interest.

Bill Gross was just named Fixed Income Manager of the Year by Morningstar. He sits on the largest pile of bonds in the world at PIMCO and is their Managing Director.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Stock Markets Tumble on Nikkei 3 Year Lows and Citigroup Dividend Cut Expectations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES fell $6 from an overnight rally to $911 per ounce just before the London open on Tuesday, while Asian stocks fell and the US Dollar held at 7-week lows vs. the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Japan 's Nikkei fell 1 percent, finishing below 14,000 for the first time since November 2005 after Bank of Japan chief Toshihiko Fukui said Japan 's economic growth will "slow for some time."

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Monday, January 14, 2008

The Future of Investing 2008 : National Debt, Social Security, Medicare All Point Towards More Inflation / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Chris_Ciovacco

As volatility increases in 2008, it will be important for us to continue to focus on the most important fundamental drivers of asset prices. If I had to choose only three words to describe the future of investing they would be debt and asset values. Debt and asset values have a significant impact on government policy.

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Monday, January 14, 2008

Central Banks Entering Hyper Inflationary Money Supply End Game / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Captain_Hook

Central banks are now showering the economy with accelerating quantities of fiat digits like never before , which is having the effect of extending the current boom cycle even longer in spite of the natural tendency for system failure. Not too long from now however, and in spite of these efforts then, like a game of musical chairs enough participants will be expelled from the festivities in natural process, which is an eventuality that cannot be avoided no matter how much intervention is exercised. Moreover, it's the fact monetary debasement rates need be accelerated to this point that is the signal we are now in the final rounds of the game (end game dynamics), where like in musical chairs, if you are prepared and with a little luck one might be the one left standing at the end. And while this might sound fine for those prepared people, don't kid yourself, what's coming here is not going to be pleasant for anyone, as the hangover from the credit binge we have been on for some 25-years now will not pass in a day or two, meaning living standards are set to decay rapidly.

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Monday, January 14, 2008

Stock Market Indicators Becoming Bullish / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Andre_Gratian

Current position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.

SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.

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Monday, January 14, 2008

Australian Stocks Attempted to Break Losing Streak / Stock-Markets / Austrailia

By: Geoffrey_Transom

We mused on Friday if perhaps the Australian market might be able to break its losing spell this week - and it did its damnedest to do just that today, albeit after a very poor opening.

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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Stock Markets Oversold, Bottom Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: The market is likely to be at or near a short term bottom.

Short Term
My daily history of the S&P mid cap index (MID) begins in 1991. Including the period that ended last Tuesday there have been 3 occasions when the index has fallen for 9 consecutive days. The others were the period before and after 9/11/2001 and late August 1998. 9/11/2001 is obviously a special case, but there are numerous similarities between August 1998 and the current period including a threat to the financial system by the failure of Long Term Capital Management which, like Citibank, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide, was considered too big to fail.

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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Stock Market Update: Trading the Deceptive Triangle Bounce / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Dominick

I can't go publicly posting the charts members pay for, but I can say that, as an example, as the weekly update was being posted here last Saturday, TTC members, whether scalpers, swing traders or position traders, were all receiving several forward looking charts describing the big picture and laying out our plans for the days ahead. The chart below was such a one, showing the triangle that the concurrent update said “many traders see.” Well, the market rarely if ever gives the crowd what they're expecting. The chart above from the Saturday weekly forum shows our immediate expectation for a deceptive bounce that would have as many as possible trading the triangle only to reverse them down into the lower trendline.

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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Australian Stocks Continue Week Long Losing Streak / Stock-Markets / Austrailia

By: Geoffrey_Transom

Crikey... seems like the Strayan market just can't get it's act together. Today marked the fifth successive session of decline for every All Ords market-cap sub-index except the ASX20 (which managed a gain yesterday), with average declines in the market-cap based subindices of 5% for the week.

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