Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Scenarios for the Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Here is a look at the two scenarios for the SPY -- the S&P 500 ETF. My
preferred count calls for a climb towards 140 prior to the completion of the
countertrend rally phase off of the January 22 low (126.00). However,
weakness that breaks and sustains below 131.70 will be problematic and
likely will trigger a plunge to new lows.
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Markets to Retest January Lows in Coming Months / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The bottom indicators are suggesting there is little risk in the market.
Short Term - After a bottom has been made downside volume (DV) dries up pretty quickly. That has not happened yet, but it is encouraging to see DV falling off faster in the small cap indices than the large cap indices.
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Sunday, February 17, 2008
Stock Market Crash Danger as Imminent Downgrades of Credit Insurers Threatens US Economy / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
Credit Insurers Must Keep AAA Rating or Else -
This week, on Thursday, February 14th , Bernanke spoke, markets fell. Confidence in the Fed Chairman wanes. From a fundamental perspective, until something is done to bail out the credit insurers, so they maintain their AAA rating from Moodys and S&P, market rallies will be corrective. This is an economic nuclear bomb at 32,000 feet. This is about bank solvency, bank risk-based capital, the bank credit function, not about the insurers themselves. Should a downgrade come to the insurers, billions of municipal bonds will effectively become illiquid, joining the trillion of CDOs (mostly subprime loan securities) that have already become illiquid. Without a bailout here, we are headed for a depression. Period.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Primary Stocks Bear Market Crunch Time! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Brian_Bloom
The monthly chart below (courtesy bigcharts.com ) is showing that the Nasdaq needs to bounce up from here to avoid breaking down. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Warren Buffet to the Rescue, Credit Crisis Creates Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- Warren Buffet to the Rescue?
- How to Earn 20% in Tax-Free Income
- What Would Warren Do?
- A Crisis Creates an Opportunity
- It's All About Valuations
- There Are Times to Be Grateful
It was only a few years ago that I use to sit down at this computer on Friday and wonder what I would write about. In today's environment, there is enough to write three e-letters and still leave interesting copy on the editing floor. Today we look at the rather disturbing developments in the municipal bond market, Warren Buffett's offer to "rescue" the tax-exempt insurers, and ponder what the resolution will be. We also look at corporate earnings, and note how they have been downgraded significantly over the last year. There is (or will be) a connection between stock market prices, valuation, the current credit crisis, and the economy. There is a lot of ground to cover.
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Saturday, February 16, 2008
US Treasuries Auction Failure Suggests Stocks Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Some wealthy investors got a jolt this week as Goldman Sachs informed them that they would be unable to withdraw their money from an investment considered “safe as cash.” These investments are so-called “ auction rate securities ,” credit instruments now caught in the latest liquidity squeeze. Banks and brokerage houses have sold these instruments to investors, claiming them to be safe. The fact is, they are long-term securities on which the banks hold weekly or monthly auctions to set prices and interest rates. This week's auction was a failure of major proportions.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Fiat Currency Credit Creation to Prevent Banking System Failure / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Bombfire of the Vanities! - As the Wolf wave of income growth spreads throughout the G7 (see 2008 outlook in the archives at www.TraderView.com ), the last several years of financial alchemy lights fires to bond markets, banks and financial institutions worldwide. The complete and absolute mispricing of risk since Alan Greenscam, er Greenspan, became Federal Reserve chairman in 1987 is now causing the great inflationary crisis predicted by Ludvig von Mises. The days of New York as financial capital to the world are coming to an end! They can never regain the confidence of their customers! The epicenter of this unfolding crisis is Wall Street, but the bomb blasts are occurring throughout the G7 and the world. You can expect the G7 central banks to act in a predictable manner. THEY WILL PRINT THE MONEY! Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Sell US Stock Market Rallies and Buy Asian Dips / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Have Asian economies delinked from the U.S. or not? Are they independent of each other? Now that the U.S has caught a cold (recession), will the rest of the world, especially Asia, catch it?
These seem to be the major questions on investors' minds these days, from Wall Street to Main Street. And who can blame them for wondering?
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Thursday, February 14, 2008
UltraShort S&P Stock Market ETF on the Move / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Today's action in the ProShares UltraShort Inverted SPY (AMEX: SDS) has triggered preliminary indications that the upside directional move in the major market ETFs from February 7 into this morning open is complete, and that a period of pullback has started. If that proves to be the case, then the SDS should perform on the upside for a climb to at least 64.00/20, which should provide a hedge for my long XXH, XLF model portfolio positions, especially ahead of options expiration (tomorrow) and ahead of the approaching 3-day Presidents Holiday weekend.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Stock Market Rallies Determined by Liquidity Inflows and Outflows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
If you think of logically ... when money flows into the market, stocks are being bought. When the amount of Inflowing Liquidity is in Expansion , then more and more investors are entering the market ... and that drives prices up.
However, when Liquidity is out-flowing, it is a condition where investors are removing their capital from the market. That means the impetus is on selling, and the market pulls back. When out-flowing Liquidity deteriorates to the point where the net liquidity is in Contraction, then the market experiences a correction.
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Thursday, February 14, 2008
FTSE 100 Stock Market Index Showing Remarkable Strength / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE 100 Indexes January plunge to below 5350 set up the scenerio for a relief rally towards resistance at 6000, which would again be followed by a retest of the January lows the outcome of which was set to determine the trend for much of the year. On Wednesday, the FTSE managed to recoup much of the days earlier losses that had seen the FTSE decline to a low of 5814, closing just 30 points down on the day at 5890, this is evidence of remarkable strength in the light of an anticipated reaction towards the January low of 5350 following a break of 50% of the advance to the 6071 relief rally peak. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Subprime Losses Already Outweigh The Great Depression / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
"Time somebody did something, right...?"
IN 1984 THE BANK of ENGLAND saved Johnson Matthey Bank – a horribly over-geared subsidiary of the centuries-old gold dealer – with an emergency buy-out costing just £1. The debts covered by the Bank of England, however, totaled $309 million on one estimate. They took 10 years to clear from the Bank's balance sheet.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Pullback in Financial Stocks Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Now for a look at Financial Select SPDR (AMEX: XLF), which technically indicates that we should expect renewed price recovery. Components Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) all exhibit similar chart structures that argue for higher prices in the financial sector.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Stock Market Technical Breakdowns May Call For More Investor Hedging / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
“I think the necessity of being ready increases.” Abraham Lincoln - Based on recent technical breakdowns in many risk-based investments (see Graph 1), the probability of investors incurring additional losses over an extended period of time has increased. Both the technical and fundamental outlook now favors bearish outcomes over bullish outcomes. In addition to the cash we have raised in recent months, it is now prudent to prepare for the possibility of adding additional hedging vehicles to our portfolios. While favorable outcomes are still possible, they are no longer probable. As illustrated in Graph 2, a continued slow migration away from risk and toward more bearish hedging vehicles may be warranted if conditions continue to deteriorate.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
The Debt Disease is Spreading - Sell Now! / Stock-Markets / US Debt
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The debt disease we've been warning you about, long subdued and dormant, is returning with a vengeance.
You can see its symptoms everywhere — in the massive losses on Wall Street ... in consumer credit turning sour ... in collapsing bond insurers ... in sinking corporate earnings ... in the recession hitting hard.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown:The 12 Steps to Financial Disaster By Nouriel Roubini / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at a recent analysis from Professor Nouriel Roubini of the Stern School of Business at New York University. Nouriel has become known for his rather clear clarion calls that the housing bubble would lead to a credit crisis and possibly much worse. He has been one who has been on CNBC and was in the clear minority early last year, but now no one is laughing (I was once on the show with him, and we were not the majority view).
In this week's Outside the Box, Nouriel details for us how a worse case scenario would develop. We both hope this does not develop. It can be avoided, but realistic investors need to know what to look for to make sure we are not going there. I like Nouriel's work, as it pull's no punches. You can go to RGE Monitor at www.rgemonitor.com to see his regular work, which is geared to institutions. Like this letter, he offers Outside the Box analysis, which I think you will find useful.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2008
A Primary Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Brian_Bloom
Despite many conflicting signals from many different quarters, this analyst believes we have entered a Primary Bear Market for Industrial Equities.
A major source of confusion has been that the internet facilitates instantaneous dissemination of information. For that reason, the daily charts, whilst interesting, cannot be relied upon. They can be expected to give conflicting signals as the emotions ebb and flow with daily news.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Homebuilding Stocks ETF Holds Support / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Homebuilders Select SPDR (AMEX: XHB) managed to hold support in the 19.70 area again, creating a minor double-low" with Friday afternoon, and setting up a potentially strong upside acceleration if the price structure hurdles 20.85-.90 later this afternoon. My technical work argues in favor of such a constructive move, which projects the XHB to climb towards a test of its prior rally peak at 23.60 from 2/01. Only a decline that breaks and sustains beneath 19.70 will neutralize my current outlook.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2008
Stock Market Signaling Intermediate Term Low and End to Short-term Correction This Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
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Sunday, February 10, 2008
Stock Market Intermediate Term Bottom In Place - Expecting Stocks to Rally Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Although prices fell sharply last week the breadth indicators all held up well.
Short Term - Breadth has been improving.
Market breadth indicators are those derived from advancing issues and declining issues, new highs and new lows and upside and downside volume.
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