Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Stock Market VIX / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Marty_Chenard

The current VIX Index (Volatility Index) chart is posted below going back to 2015.

Please note the following: The long term trend has been down with each successive peak being lower. (A lower VIX correlates with a higher stock market and a higher VIX with a lower stock market.)

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Stock Market Cycle Dates have been Modified / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

After researching the Leading Diagonal [Wave (1)], I have concluded that it may not be considered corrective at all. That means the September 9 decline may have been the start of Wave (3).

More importantly, a closer examination of the Cycles Model strongly suggests that Wave (3) may have begun on September 9. The Brexit low appeared to be important, but it was not an Elliott Wave (4), as many would believe. It did not even register on the Hi-Lo Index. As a result, I cannot label it as an important Cyclical low, although its is an important part of the Orthodox Broadening Top.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

European banks may be more important than the Fed this week / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It’s like déjà vu all over again. The SPX Premarket has tested the lower trendline of its Orthodox Broadening Top, but pulled back.

ZeroHedge observes, “If yesterday one could "explain" the overnight stock levitation due to the move higher in crude oil, today there is no such catalyst with WTI down modestly, and yet the broader push higher across European stocks and US equities has reappeared following yesterday's muted close on Wall Street ahead of key central bank data on deck. Some have attributed the 0.4% rise in futures to the latest dip in the dollar, while a modest bond rally as the countdown to crucial policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve entered its final stretch, put taper tantrum concerns on hold if only for the time being.”

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Gold, Silver, Stocks and Bonds Grand Ascension or Great Collapse? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

It depends upon your perspective and the markets you follow …

Perspective:

1. The global economy is drowning in debt – $230 Trillion and counting – that will not be repaid at current value. Expect hyperinflation or outright default.
2. Negative Interest Rates on $13 Trillion in sovereign debt are a sign of failure by central banks, governments, and Keynesian economists.
3. Pension plans and savers are hurt by low and negative interest rates. They have been sacrificed for the continued levitation in the stock and bond markets.
4. All of the above indicate a correction and possible collapse are coming. Perhaps it began this month, September 2016.
5. The charts of six markets tell the story.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Mass Psychology in Action; Instead of Selling Gilead it is Time to Take a Closer Look / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

"A little and a little, collected together, becomes a great deal; the heap in the barn consists of single grains, and drop and drop make the inundation." ~ Saadi

One should be wary of listening to individuals that claim to be experts especially if they are associated with big investment firms or popular media. In most instances, the word expert is the code word for jackass, and the word sell is the secret code word for buy, especially if these jackasses are the ones telling you to do so. Before we continue, let's examine the story below, and it clearly illustrates how those with the mass mindset sell when it is time to buy and buy when its time to sell.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Stock Market Waiting On Wednesday..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

Boring. Simple as that. The market is boring. It whips about, but goes nowhere in the end. That's because the market wants to always go higher in the new fed environment, but because the economy is worsening it's having more resistance from the bears. In the end, we go nowhere. It is what it is. The global economy is mirroring our economy here at home. Both are on steep declines based on the key reports we've received over the past couple of weeks.

Monday, September 19, 2016

SPX is still on a sell signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

At the hourly level, the SPX has a few anomalies in its Wave structure. However, this appears to be the “best fit.”

In this case Wave [v] is roughly equal to Wave [i] of C. I had expected to see Waves C and A attaining equality where Wave C would approach the 50-day Moving Average, instead. As a result, this correction is called an “irregular.”

But that also verifies a Wave (B).

Monday, September 19, 2016

Stock Market May Turn Ugly This Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is higher this morning, but short of Thursday’s high or the trendline.

ZeroHedge reports, “Stocks across the board, and US equity futures are broadly in the green this morning as markets shrug off the terror-related events in the NYC area over the weekend. There wasn’t a single positive “reason” for the green price action but the bond “tantrum” that caught the attention of stocks beginning back on 9/8 is increasingly fading and investors are hopeful this week’s central bank decisions (BOJ and FOMC both on Wed 9/21) will further ease yield anxieties.”

Monday, September 19, 2016

Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Revolution in Banking? / Stock-Markets / Bitcoin

By: Ellen_Brown

Several central banks, including the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, are exploring the concept of issuing their own digital currencies, using the blockchain technology developed for Bitcoin. Skeptical commentators suspect that their primary goal is to eliminate cash, setting us up for negative interest rates (we pay the bank to hold our deposits rather than the reverse).

Monday, September 19, 2016

Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Uncertainty, But Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, September 19, 2016

More Stock Market Selling Monday? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

It looks like that we should have more selling early Monday in the stock market according to the extremes of the 4 TD low combined with the current bearish wave action and negative astros. There is a rising wedge that meets near 2110 Monday. I'm not sure we tag that or not, but in any case there should be a strong rally Monday out of this sell-off according to the cycles.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Stock Market Correction Already Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend:  The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase.

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

New US Stock Market Uptrend Underway ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started with the SPX at 2128. After a gap down opening Monday the SPX hit 2119 then rallied to 2163 just before the close. On Tuesday another gap down opening took the SPX to 2120, then after a rally to 2141 on Wednesday the SPX hit 2120 again. On Thursday the SPX rallied to 2151, then gapped down again on Friday to 2131 before ending the week at 2139. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.60%. Three gap down openings and the market ended positive on the week. Economic reports for the week were predominantly negative. On the downtick: export prices, retail sales, NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, the Q3 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: the Philly FED and the CPI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC and housing.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Fed Huffing and Puffing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: David_Chapman

Over the past few weeks a number of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have mused about an interest rate hike at the September FOMC that takes place next week, on September 20-21, 2016. The interest rate decision comes out around 2 p.m. on September 21. It will be a much-watched announcement. Stocks, bonds and precious metals markets all reacted negatively to the musings when the fourth Fed official (including Yellen) since August 2016 mused about a hike. Despite labour numbers that appear to point to decent economic growth and an inflation rate (PCE Inflation) that hovers below the Fed’s target of 2%, the overall picture is not one of economic strength, with many indicators and numbers actually pointed down.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Stock Market Quiet Week...Volatile But Quiet... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The week was wild, but quiet when all was said and done. Last Friday saw a strong move lower with no follow-through to the down side this week by the bears. Nothing unusual about that. The bears haven't followed through meaningfully in longer than I can remember. That said, this week saw the market move mostly lateral, meaning the bulls didn't just blast things right back up as they usually do with no resistance from the bears. The bears are fighting a little bit. More than we've seen in recent months.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Stocks and Bonds - The Central Bankers' Experiment: The Great Bust / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

The public enthusiasm, which had been so long rising, could not resist a vision so splendid. At least three hundred thousand applications were made of the fifty thousand new shares, and Law's house in the Rue de Quincampoix was beset from morning to night by the eager applicants."

The quote above is from McKay's classic, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, found in the first chapter, "Money Mania – The Mississippi Scheme". The Mississippi Scheme reached its final "all time high" in January 1720, and Mackay wrote about this madness in 1841.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

SPX Sell Signals Are Intact / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is struggling to make a 50% retracement of this morning’s decline. It appears complete, but we cannot rule out an algo attack in the final minutes. SPX remains on a sell signal.

Friday, September 16, 2016

The Financial Crisis Is Escalating! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are presently in the process of merger talks. The fact that these meetings are occurring is a signal that Germany’s banking troubles are indeed accelerating.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Italy Is the Mother of All Systemic Threats / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Italy has been in a crisis for at least eight months, though mainstream media did not recognize it until July. This crisis has nothing to do with Brexit, although opponents of Brexit will claim it does. Even if Britain had voted to stay in the EU, the Italian crisis would still have been gathering speed.

The high level of non-performing loans (NPLs) has been a problem since before Brexit. It is clear that there is nothing in the Italian economy that can reduce them. Only a dramatic improvement in the economy would make it possible to repay these loans. And Europe’s economy cannot improve drastically enough to help. We have been in crisis for quite a while.

Friday, September 16, 2016

These 3 Investments Are the Plays to Make During Recession / Stock-Markets / Investing 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON: The global economy is stuck in neutral in spite of the “whatever it takes” efforts of central bankers.

The eventual fallout from near zero or even negative interest rates is a huge unknown. Given the lack of historical precedent, even the best and brightest market observers admit it’s hard to create useful macroeconomic models.