Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Stock Market Head & Shoulders Pattern Activated / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation appears to have been crossed. That action activates the formation with a minimum target of 2044.43. Chances of a bounce back above the neckline are normally slim to none. Should we close beneath it, we may see a massive gap down tomorrow.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Confirmed Stock Market Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has crossed beneath the bottom trendline of the Triangle formation. This confirms the trend change in SPX.
ZeroHedge points out that the Risk Parity trade is deleveraging this morning, causing the breakdown. This practice is akin to the “portfolio insurance” used up to the crash of 1987, but with leverage, since yields are so low.
This may be a fast-developing situation, as each level of breakdown instigates more selling. There is a vicious feedback loop that may be unstoppable until selling is exhausted. That may take SPX beneath the February 12 low at 1810.10.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The US Needs a Robust Infrastructure Spending Program / Stock-Markets / Infrastructure
By: John_Mauldin
I’ve been quite hard on central bank leaders lately, and rightly so. But once in a while, a central banker says something that makes sense. When it happens, I want to be fair and highlight it.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave an unusually coherent Sept. 20 speech called Living for Lower with Longer. The “lower” refers to lower interest rates. He discussed some of the broader factors contributing to the extended low-rate environment.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Stock Market Debate Rally...Still Nowhere....Still Bullish.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
Last night we had the second debate between Clinton and Trump. The market wants the status quo because if Trump wins, he said he would remove fed Yellen. That's not what this stock market wants. It wants Yellen since she, and she alone, is responsible for quite a bit of the wealth most have in stock market gains over the past many years. If she goes away, it is quite likely rates will go up quite fast and kill the market. The market wants a democrat since this will make certain that Yellen will remain in office, and, thus, the world of low rates and, therefore, more Disneyland is possible.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Stock Market Downside Possibilities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The stock market rallied on Monday out of the 8 TD low on Friday. The 8 TD low is acting more like a 4 TD low. The dominant has once again become sub-dominant. The market looks as though it wants to curl over this week into Thursday. Downside possibilities are the low to mid 2130’s to as low as the 2102/07 area SPX.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Stock Market Shades of August 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
You may recall that we saw a Triangle formation going into the August 2015 flash crash decline. This time it’s capped by an Orthodox Broadening Top formation that has the potential for a much larger decline.
In addition, the time from the top of Wave A to today’s top is exactly 12.9 market days. From the 2187.87 high to the 2179.99 high was 8.6 market days. The time from the August 15 high at 2193.01 to the high at 2187.87 was 17.2 market days.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
No Clear Short-Term Direction, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, October 10, 2016
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Ken_Ticehurst
We are getting closer to our long forecast drop in the commodities complex with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.
Monday, October 10, 2016
NFP, Wikileaks, falling momentum, slipping real estate…recipe for correction? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: John_Mesh
The rally in equities resumed for the UK's FTSE and three of the four Eastern indexes on our world watch list (the Shanghai Composite spent the week on holiday celebrating Chinese National Day). Japan's Nikkei was the top week-over-week performer, up 2.49% with Hong Kong's Hang Seng close behind at 2.38%. The US's S&P 500 was the laggard, down 0.67%, which snapped a three-week advance.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Stock Market Pressure Mounting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening. Potential final phase of bull market.
SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Stock Market Down Monday? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The SPX could take a plunge Monday, but the set up is there for a nice rebound into October 14th. I think we finally get my False Break of the Rising Wedge and the rebound that takes us above 2200 SPX. October 14th should be the high for the year.
GDX and the gold complex are due for a nice rebound rally, but much damage has been done. A move back into the mid 26.00 area for GDX is the minimum expectation for an October 18 top. It may take a couple of more days to get kick started as the buyers are hesitant and selling into rallies.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Get Ready for the Future - Exponential Machine Intelligence Mega-trend towards Singularity / Stock-Markets / Technology
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst most readership interest is in my regular stock market in-depth analysis that tend to conclude in detailed trend forecast usually covering at least the next 2-3 months and where possible much longer. However, whilst it is useful to know the probable short-term direction of the stock market for trading, accumulation (investing) and distribution (banking profits) purposes, but frankly, I think most people get overly carried away if not obsessed with seeking out short-term market direction.
Sunday, October 09, 2016
Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
I used to wonder how these massive World Wars happened.
World War I, for instance. The “official” story for why it happened makes absolutely no sense. The mainstream reason for the war was because some Archduke from Austria got killed.
Then, like some bizarre drunken bar fight, tens of millions of people from dozens of different countries all were wounded or injured in the ensuing four years.
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Saturday, October 08, 2016
End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2168. After a gap down opening on Monday the market declined to SPX 2144 by Tuesday. A gap up opening on Wednesday carried the market to SPX 2164. Then a pullback on Thursday to SPX 2150 was followed by a rally into Friday to SPX 2166. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2145, only to end the week at SPX 2154. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Economic reports for the week were again mixed. On the downtick: construction spending, wholesale inventories, the Q3 GDP estimate, the ADP, plus the trade deficit and unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, auto sales, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, the PPI and Retail sales. Best to your week!
Saturday, October 08, 2016
The US Economy and Stock Market are in Trouble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Chapman
The US economy may be approaching its 28th consecutive quarter of growth from the end of the 2008-2009 recession, but all is not as it seems. Shadow Stats www.shadowstats.com shows that, because of changes to the way GDP is calculated dating back to the 1980s, the US economy, instead of growing since 2000, has largely been trapped in a series of rolling recessions. According to Shadow Stats, the US economy is in its 45th consecutive quarter of negative growth. Stagnant income growth largely benefitting the top 20% of the working population; the collapsing labour force participation rate that results in a gross understatement of the real unemployment rate; a large army of part-time workers; many not counted as a part of the labour force just because they have been out of work a year or longer and are no longer counted; half the working population earning less than $30,000 annually; millennials burdened with record student loans and unable to form households as they cannot find the jobs; and a retiring baby boomer workforce, many of them unprepared for retirement, are just some of the reasons the US economy continues to underperform even as officialdom touts growth.
Friday, October 07, 2016
WARNING: the Markets Might Crash HERE AND NOW / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
Stock investing is ultimately based on risk.
The global risk-free rate is the Us 10-Year Treasury. Again, this is the “risk-free” rate for the world. Stocks trade relative to this rate.
The ENTIRE move in the market from the early 2016 lows was predicated on bon yields falling (or bond prices rising). As this occurred, risk became cheaper, forcing stocks higher.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Pound Sterling Flash Crashes. Is the SPX Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Last night’s flash crash in the Pound Sterling should not take us by surprise. It was merely fulfilling its Bearish Pennant objectives. In addition, it was within a Wave 3 of (3) scenario, which would tell us that there would be large gaps in trading as it descends.
ZeroHedge reports, “U.S. equity index futures fell, with European, Asian stocks also declining before the September payrolls data, following the stunning 2-minute "flash crash" meltdown in sterling which plunged as much as 6.1%, the most since Brexit and is set for its biggest weekly loss since 2009.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Stock Market Crash Sound More like Stock Market Trash when you listen to Drs of Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
A small mind is obstinate. A great mind can lead and be led. Alexander CannonEvery few months there is some nonsensical headline that is passed off as news when it should be relegated to the rubbish bin of time. Sometimes it is high oil price that is not good for the market, and then on other occasions, we hear that low oil prices are not good. Then you have the Dance with the Fed and interest rates, which sounds more like a silly girl peeling petals from a flower and murmuring “he loves me, or he loves me not”. If you go back and start from 2006 for example, you will notice that with the passage of each year the headlines are bombastic in nature. However, the outcome is always the same, the masses panic and the smart money comes and laps up all the stocks being sold for next to nothing.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Stock Buybacks Fueling the Stock Market? By How Much? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here's the question of the day: are corporate stock buybacks fueling the stock market?
Let's look at a couple of charts and a news report to help determine the answer.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Wall Street Earnings Recession is no cause for Worry; Stock Market Bull has been ignoring it. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Irony is the form of paradox. Paradox is what is good and great at the same time.Friedrich SchlegelWe could sum it up in two words as to why earnings recession was, is and will be a non-event; Hot Money. However, for some strange reason when it comes to the markets individuals happen to love long explanations even though in most cases the long answers reveal a lot less than the short ones do. So let’s take a look at some of these meaningless statistics.
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