Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Stocks Bear Market Investors Nightmare! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Ugly Outlook – Global Economics, Quantitative Easing and Equities - A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think.
The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row! These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Dow Stocks Index Makes it Seven / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - SPX may have started an intermediate correction
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Stock Market Bubbles: What the Media Misunderstands / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
MoneyMorning.com D.R. Barton, Jr writes: Since the last bona fide financial bubble, the real estate and credit bubble of 2007 to 2009, it seems like every time anyone pays a few pennies too much for a stock, there is a flock of analysts ready to start crowing "bubble!" like so many birds on a wire.
I believe that any pundit who calls a sector or market a "bubble" when they really mean "fundamentally or technically overbought" should be banished from pontificating until the real bubble appears.
That's no hollow gripe: These talking heads can do serious damage with their flawed analyses. Regular investors who heed their bad advice can end up prematurely exiting what are in fact strong, lucrative positions, leaving billions in upside on the table.
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Monday, August 10, 2015
Stock Market Crash, Bear Market Rally in Gold? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
I'm attaching three charts today: One chart of the daily SPY shows the parallel between Friday and March 3, 2015. The next one, shows where it could go as far as price and time is concerned, and the third shows the weekly chart of the SPX and what I believe may be the eventual conclusion of the correction into October of this year.
Astro-cycle-wise, we have not yet seen the 100 TD low, commonly called the 20 week low, last seen on March 11, 2015. As of Friday we are at TD 104. The 100 TD low usually comes within about a 10% variance giving it about 10 TD's on either side (the longest I've seen was at about 115/116 TD's ).
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Monday, August 10, 2015
Bogus Economic Statistics - China About To Make History Again / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
Any discussion of China has to open with the now-widely-understood fact that the numbers it reports are not to be trusted. Knowing this makes it easy to dismiss claims of high and consistently-on-target GDP growth, for instance, as a combination of government-directed borrowing and spending, and simple fabrication.
But how to handle negative numbers? When a serial fabricator admits that things are bad and getting worse, that would seem to imply that someone at or near the top has concluded that either the facts can no longer be obscured or that there’s an advantage in creating negative expectations.
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Monday, August 10, 2015
Stock Investors Shelter from These Storms in the Distance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: In South Florida, we call the dog days of summer the "mean season", as vicious thunderstorms move over the Everglades every afternoon and attack the east coast with lightning strikes and blinding downpours. We keep our fingers crossed that the storms won't morph hurricanes that can sweep the ocean over the land and cause catastrophic destruction.
After a period of intense hurricane activity in the early 2000s, it's been ten years since we've been hit by any serious storms, and we are being told that strong El Nino conditions will likely protect us again this season. But we know that sooner or later our luck will run out, and we will be back in the eye of dangerous winds and storm surges. And, at least for a moment, we'll wish we lived somewhere other than in paradise.
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Monday, August 10, 2015
Qatar Stock Exchange Index (QE) Bullish Wedge Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
A bullish wedge formation is setting up in the chart of the Qatar Exchange Index (QE). Taking into account the pattern to date, a breakout is confirmed on a move above 12,043.7. However, there could be a lower signal develop as the pattern may need a little while longer to progress. At this point an aggressive signal would be given on a move above Wednesday’s high at 11,836.8.
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Sunday, August 09, 2015
Stock Market 4 Year Rest or P4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The market started the week at SPX 2104. It ticked up to SPX 2106 to start the week, then traded down to 2087 on Monday. A rally started Monday afternoon carrying the SPX to 2113 by Wednesday. Then the market pulled back to end the week at SPX 2078. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.55%, the NDX/NAZ were -1.60%, and the DJ World was down 0.9%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, construction spending, factory orders, ISM services, and consumer credit. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, the ADP, monthly Payrolls, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week will be highlighted by Industrial production, Retail sales and the PPI.
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Sunday, August 09, 2015
Stock Market Crash - The NASDAQ's Days are Numbered Too... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
When you attend the funeral of a dearly departed friend or relative it is appropriate to show due respect by wearing black. Similarly, in this update on the Tech Sector, which will very soon be on its deathbed, it is appropriate that we show due propriety and respect for the seriousness of the situation by presenting our analysis on somber black charts.
Some investors may have been fooled into thinking that because the NASDAQ Composite index, whose 1-year chart is shown below, is still in an uptrend and recently made new highs, that all is well with the sector, especially as it is outperforming the broad market S&P500 index which has been treading water all this year in a tight range, as shown on its 1-year chart a little further down the page, but as we will see on the long-term charts, all is not well at all, and both these indices are now set up to drop hard or crash.
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Saturday, August 08, 2015
Stocks, Bonds, USD: What Interest Rate Hike? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
The US July jobs report was strong, or at least clearly better than the June report. 215K in NFP, 2.1% average hourly earnings y/y, unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3% and the participation rate also unchanged at 62.6%. The big rally in the US dollar was completely eroded, with EURUSD clawing back all of the 120-pips it lost immediately after the release. The only currencies not to end higher against the USD were CHF (due to renewed SNB jawboning), CAD (disappointing CAD jobs) and GBP and SEK.
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Saturday, August 08, 2015
Nasdaq Monthly Not A Pretty Picture... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
One thing that has kept me from getting ridiculously bullish over the past several months, and something I have discussed quite frequently, is the look of the index-monthly charts, from the Nasdaq to just about everyone one else. Extremely elevated both in price and on those momentum oscillators. They have stayed overbought for such a long time that after a while you tend to try or even want to pretend they don't exist. If you looked at them head on every day you'd feel like you would never want to own another stock until they've completely unwound themselves. Scary looking is putting it mildly. So we look at the recent selling and wonder if those monthly charts are finally starting to hit the market. That the news out there is meaningless noise, good or bad. That the only thing that matters is quite likely those monthly charts.
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Friday, August 07, 2015
China Spending 11.6 Million Annual Incomes Per Day Propping Up Stocks / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
For years now China has been heralded as an economic miracle that will drive the global economy towards growth and eventually eclipse the US as THE superpower in the world.
This theme was driven by the view that somehow China had obtained the magic balance between free-market capitalism and Central Planning. Globally analysts breathlessly talked about China’s insatiable demand for commodities as its economy grew by double digits for three decades straight.
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Friday, August 07, 2015
One of the Most Useful Stock Markets Reports You Will Ever Read / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Would foreknowledge of the news put you ahead of the investment crowd?
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
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Thursday, August 06, 2015
Stock Market Swinging Wildly.....No Change....Sentiment Still Unwinding / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
It's a fact we've all gotten used to. At least I hope you have by now. Today is yet another day that makes no sense, thus it does. We had three days of poor action, and then after hours last night the futures were falling hard, mostly due to a very poor earnings report from Dow leader The Walt Disney Company (DIS). An unexpected miss with a bad outlook for the rest of this year in to 2016. The stock crushed, and I mean crushed, after hours. Futures were falling hard. It looked like another huge down day was dead ahead. We wake up this morning to a large gap up, even though DIS actually worsened. Go figure! As we've surely gotten used to, we saw the highs of the day erode over time, but with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq holding on to some gains.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Stock Market Margin Debt - Don't Let This Nonsense Number Fool You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Some people just want to see the worst in a stock market...
They like to take every fact or statistic they can find and twist it into an omen of doom.
We don't work that way. In my Retirement Trader newsletter, we look at the facts, talk about them, and draw simple conclusions about what's possible.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Crisis Meets Opportunity: See the Evidence, make up your Own Mind / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Dear Investor,
Over the next few days, we're inviting you to watch a recent live talk given by Elliott Wave International chief market analyst and former Merrill analyst Steve Hochberg to a packed audience of some of San Francisco's top independent investors.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Another Stock Market Extreme: IPOs' Lack of Accounting Standards - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
by Steve Hochberg, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst
Last month at the San Francisco Money Show event for investors and traders, Steve Hochberg, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst, addressed the audience with a series of eye-opening insights.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Fed Lunacy is to Blame for the Coming Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
This week John Hussman's pondering about the state of our markets is as clear and concise as it's ever been. He starts off by describing the difference between an economy operating at a low level versus a high level. He's essentially describing a 2% GDP economy versus a 4% GDP economy. We have been stuck in a low level economy since 2008. And there is one primary culprit for the suffering of millions - The Federal Reserve and their Wall Street Bank owners. They are the reason incomes are stagnant, the labor participation rate is at 40 year lows, savers can only earn .25% on their savings, and consumers have been forced further into debt to make ends meet. Meanwhile, corporate America and the Wall Street banks are siphoning off record profits, paying obscene pay packages to their executives, buying off the politicians in Washington to pass legislation (TPP) designed to enrich them further, and arrogantly telling the peasants to work harder.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Submerging Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
This week's commentary takes a look at emerging markets but first a review of the most recent Hybrid Lindsay forecast for the Dow Industrials index.
The July 14 commentary mentioned the official forecast for a low in the period July 24-31 but also explained why "a tradable low is very close". Indeed, last week's low was seen that day. The next forecast-high generated by the Hybrid Lindsay model is expected late in the week of August 10 or early during the week of August 17.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
Why This Stocks Bubble Is Actually WORSE Than the Internet Tech Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
I’ve been invited to speak on many media outlets lately, hammering on and on about how this is another bubble. Worse, an artificial one!
A bubble occurs naturally when market forces converge. Trends come together and make the markets so hot that everyone starts piling in.
But it’s one thing when investors speculate on the fundamentals like demographics, rising technology, and falling interest rates. For example, like in 1925 to 1929, and 1995 to 1999.
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