Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, April 06, 2015

Is an Important Stock Market Top in Place? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an important top?

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.

Monday, April 06, 2015

One of the Longest Cyclical Bull Market In US Stocks May be Coming to an End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jas_Jain

Some think that we are in a secular bull market that began in March 2009. I disagree because that would mean that the secular bear market only lasted for 9 years, Mar-00-Mar'09, when 17 years is more typical. Also, as of now the inflation adjusted S&P 500 has not made a new high reached in March 2000 (it is close, though). Warren Buffet seems to have been aware of this 17-year secular bull & bear cycles when he commented in 1999 that the next 17 years for the US stock market would not be the same as the last 17 years. Here is how I date the last two secular bull and bear markets in the current longwave cycle that began in the middle of 1949, including the probable outcome of the current secular bear market:

Sunday, April 05, 2015

Danger: Resist the Temptation to Chase Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: The week running up to Easter ended with a punk jobs report that punctuated a first quarter filled with a stream of consistently bad economic data.

March nonfarm payrolls grew by only 126,000, far below consensus estimates of 225,000. Worse, 69,000 jobs were subtracted from January's and February's tallies. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.5% only because the job participation rate jumped back up to its lowest level since 1978.

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Looking at Trends in Non Farm Payrolls…Trade Smart, Trade Small / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

I forgot exactly where and when I read it, but I recall seeing that one of the things that the Fed looks at when considering the employment situation, is a rolling 12 month average of the number of jobs created or lost. This gives them more of a smoothed indicator and tends to filter out the effects from what can often be notoriously volatile month to month readings. We traders tend to do this oftentimes with our various technical indicators in an attempt to filter out “noise”.

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Stock Market Friday Payroll Surprise / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market opened the week at SPX 2061 after last week’s sharp decline from near record levels. After a rally to SPX 2089 on Monday the market nearly retested last week’s low at 2046, then bounced to end the holiday shortened week at 2067. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.3%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%, and the DJ World gained 0.7%. On the economic front, reports continue to come in generally positive. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, pending homes sales, Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, Consumer confidence, factory orders, the MMIS, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit both improved. On the downtick: the ADP index, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, the monetary base, and monthly payrolls (which were reported Friday at +126k v 295k, the lowest monthly gain since December 2013, and a big disappointment). Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, ISM services, and Export/Import prices.

Saturday, April 04, 2015

US Stock Market on Shaky Ground! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last article, I wrote that volume studies showed recent net outflows even as the market moved up during the recent OPEX /FOMC rally. I talked about the Rising Wedge, which when broken would cause a big drop. Well, we have some cracks showing up on the daily MACD indicator that is implying some tough days ahead for the US stock market.

Friday, April 03, 2015

Dow Theory Divergence Indicates Increased Stock Market Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Christopher_Quigley

If ever you wanted an example of Dow Theory “Divergence” the Dow indices comparison chart below provides it.

Quick observation clearly shows that the Dow Transport Index (White Line) is collapsing while the Dow Industrials (Green Line) is holding its own. Divergence is an indication of increased market risk and means that the future trend is in doubt and “in play”.

Friday, April 03, 2015

How I Disproved Efficient Market Theory by Being a DJ / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Yes, DJing is a hobby of mine. I’ve been doing it for about seven years, picking it up late in life. Call it midlife crisis number one.

I have had a pretty fun DJ career, all things considered. I’ve played in a couple of really famous clubs, and I’ve done all kinds of private parties—parties where people have gone nuts. I post my mixes online for people to enjoy. I’ve spent way more money than I’ve earned (especially on music—I pay for all my tracks). But it’s been worth it.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

China’s Stock Market Mania; How High can Red-chips Fly? / Stock-Markets / China Stocks

By: Gary_Dorsch

Recognized as the world’s single biggest attraction for high rollers at the gambling tables, Macau is the only location in the People’s Republic of China where betting on the Roll of the dice is legal. Macau is a just short ferry ride from Hong Kong, through which many mainlanders travel to get to the casinos. As such, the former Portuguese colony saw its annual casino and entertainment revenues soar to a combined $44-billion in 2014; or 7-times that of the Las Vegas Strip. For Macau, the boom times began in 2010 when casino revenues increased +58% and was followed by a +42% gain in 2011.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Will Stocks Just Correct or Collapse in 2015? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The question on everybody's mind for 2015 is when will the stock market start to correct in value and will it turn into a 50+% collapse?

Over the last 15 years investors has been through a lot in terms of market volatility. From the 2000 tech bubble bear market and the 2008 financial crisis bear market investors are far from having their investment psyche scars healing and is for good reason. Many sustained 50+% loss in their portfolio value more than once and are not willing to do it for a third time.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Investors Await Quarterly Earnings Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Financial Market Extremes: Expect Consequences / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

WHAT EXTREMES?

The S&P 500 Index has tripled in 6 years, is overbought, and at an all-time high.  See graph showing 7 year cycle highs and overbought indicators.

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Stock Market Sell signals in Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is now on a confirmed sell signal by the fact that it has crossed beneath its 50-day Moving Average, as anticipated.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

VIX shorts scream bloody murder as stops are run, ETF markets halted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

ZeroHedge reports that all S&P Sector ETs and VIX ETFs are halted.

One of the most crowded trades today are the VIX shorts. One way to buy VIX shares en masse is to run all the stops on the shorts, effectively making these shares available for sale. There is no control of the price at which these shares are sold when the algos are turned loose, causing massive losses among those shorts and an opportunity for some large player to load up (long) on these shares. This may not be allowed if the regulators are on the ball, as the transactions may be cancelled. But the regulators may have a hard time trying to figure out what to do, since the computer outage occurred on such a large range of ETFs.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

SPX Losing Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX appears to be challenging the hourly mid-Cycle support at 2077.73 in the Premarket this morning.

ZeroHedge writes, “Following yesterday's proof-positive that "everything is awesome," today (and overnight) we find, everything is not so awesome. Following the unleashing of The Warsh on CNBC, markets are starting to turmoil. Crude has erased all its late-day ramp and then some dropping back to a low $47 handle. German Bund yields just hit a new record low (2Y at -25.7bps!). US equity markets have erased all of yesterday's post-open gains, and US Treasury yields are dumping as the Euro surges...”

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Stock Markets Toddling Towards the Non-Farm Payrolls Boogie Woogie / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jesse

Another glorious day in the Pax Americana dominated by grift, spin, weak economic results, and 'technical trade.'

In case you were wondering who might benefit from higher short term interest rates, the first chart below is an interest rate sensitivity study from JP Morgan. It is not certainly a complete picture, but it is indicative of their positioning perhaps.

Monday, March 30, 2015

SPX Reaches 61.8% Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX reached a high of 2088.25, just 9 ticks beneath the 61.8% retracement level and 65 ticks from the point at which Wave v equals Wave I (2088.80). It appears to be about to cross beneath Intermediate-term support/resistance at 2085.85. The likelihood of the retracement being complete is very high. No buy signal was given, so the only thing I might add is to add to any short positions at this time. This retracement was stronger than expected, but considering the end of the quarter is almost here, it makes sense that this rally could be engineered for large investors to take profits at the expense of retail investors.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Do What the Stock Market Bears Do... Not What They Say / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: Here’s a thought experiment for you.

Imagine you’re a business owner who is attending an investment conference. A smart, articulate and extremely bearish stock market analyst takes the podium and warns of impending economic doom.

He marshals an impressive array of scary facts. He points to past predictions that have come to pass. And he claims the economy and stock market will soon collapse.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Stock Market Positive Expectations As Investors Bet On Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, March 30, 2015

Stock Market Short-term Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend -Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.