Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, November 09, 2009
Stock Market Slays the Doomsayers... Pullback Due.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Of course, that doesn't mean we can't and won't pull back because we will. We will have selling episodes that feel bad, but with the bears unable to take out those 50-day exponential moving averages with force, there is nothing bad going on for the bulls. We did break below on a closing basis on the S&P 500, but barely. The Nasdaq lost by a bit more but the Dow never broke. I wrote a nightly commentary on this.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Can't Ask for More / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
The indices had a huge rally today, gapping up sharply at the opening, running hard in the morning, and then working their way steadily higher in a rising channel all session. Then in the last 15minutes they exploded into the close, closing at the highs for the day going away. The bulls couldn't ask for more.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Russia Regroups Twenty Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall / Stock-Markets / Articles
We are now at the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe. We are also nearing the 18th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union itself. This is more than simply a moment for reflection -- it is a moment to consider the current state of the region and of Russia versus that whose passing we are now commemorating. To do that, we must re-examine why the Soviet empire collapsed, and the current status of the same forces that caused that collapse.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Stock Market On a Glide Path Towards Dow 11,000 / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
All the market and the economy are asking for is a little bit of respect. The expectation of better economic news, coupled with above estimated earnings has put the equity market on a glide path towards 11,000 over the course of the next few months. The economy is on a bumpy recover, with manufacturing replacing all the stuff bought over the past six months (inventory rebuild), while productivity of American workers is through the roof. So goes the bullish argument. However, the king of lagging indicators, unemployment is not really showing signs of “expansion”.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Stock Market Crash Alert and the Painful Adjustments to the “New Normal” Economy / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
We left our Crash Alert flag up while we were away in the mountains. And for a while last week it looked like we were geniuses. Stocks seemed like they were going to crash.
But along came two very important bits of information.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Stocks, Dollar or Bonds, Which Crisis Will be Next? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
As I wrote earlier this year, the US’s monetary policy has already laid the seeds of the next Crisis. Is now no longer a question whether or not another Crisis is coming; instead, it’s a question of which Crisis and when. I’ve detailed what I think are the three general options below:
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Stock and Dollar Bears At the Margin / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
How can the stock market continue to set new rally related records week in and week out? Answer: As per our discussion last week, because at the margin, there have been enough bearish speculators, as measured by US index open interest put / call ratios, to continually squeeze prices higher. What’s more, this, in itself is nothing new (sentiment largely drives market direction in fiat currency economies), and has been the primary driving force behind stock market direction for sometime now (decades).
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Robert Prechters Stocks Bear Market Latest Updates / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It has been an exciting week in the markets. And FreeWeek attendees have been enjoying the ride.
FreeWeek Update: Elliott Wave International's publications have alerted subscribers -- and FreeWeek attendees -- that volume and breadth readings have been contracting throughout the multi-month rally, which signals a critical juncture ahead.
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Monday, November 09, 2009
Stock Market Investors Needn’t Fear a Double-Dip Economic Recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Jon D. Markman writes: A new report contains some very good news for investors: Double-dip recessions are very rare.
That means that a drop back into recessionary conditions looks less and less likely even as unemployment creeps higher and has crossed the 10% threshold for the first time in a quarter century.
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
What Happened to the Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The Market Oracle Newsletter November 7th, 2009 Issue #85 Vol. 3Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Stock Market Trending Towards Mid November Cycle Low / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. This will not be a straight-down decline, but will consist of a series of intermediate-term rallies and declines until we have reached the low point.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Signals for an intermediate top continue to be elusive. The top of 1100, as expected, was only that of a short-term trend which may already have bottomed. The rally from the 1030 low is only a temporary move which is near its end and should be followed by a test of the low, at a minimum.
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Stock Market Investment Sentiment, Changes Within The Indicators / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Every week that I put together these comments, I pay great attention to the words that I write. Last week's key points were: 1) the range continues; 2) seasonal tendencies and being at the bottom of a well defined trend channel argue for a bounce; 3) we need to see the excesses of bullish sentiment unwound before we have meaningfully higher prices; 4) the risk of a market down draft remains great. This week investor sentiment has become very convoluted suggesting even greater care in the words I choose. So let's get to it.
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Nasdaq SOS Timing Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Heres a quick update.
Here is this weeks SOS Timing Indicator:
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Goldman Sachs' and Warren Buffett's BRK Attempt Fannie Mae Tax Scam / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
Some great posts this weekend over at "The Big Picture" by Barry Ritholtz; Barry is essentially the "trailblazer" of financial blogging and many a blogger has followed in his footsteps. In my piece this past week on the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.a) Burlington Northern (BNI) buyout I didn't have time to get into it but detail oriented readers might of noticed this seemingly throwaway line I tossed in:
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Easy Money Continues to Boost Risky Financial Asset Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy following its meeting on Wednesday. The communiqué had no surprises and said that the committee expected to keep the fed funds rate target in the 0-0.25% range “for an extended period”. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) also kept interest rates unchanged at 1% and 0.5% respectively.
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Stock Market Money for Nothing and Chop for Free! / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
To the optimist, market held its own, looking to the future, and past the dismal job number.
To the pessimist market is rigged, and money is printed by the bundle and delivered on the wire to buy ETFs and futures.
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Familiar Feel to S&P 500 Stock Market Rally Strength / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The strength of this week's upmove in the S&P 500 had a familiar 'feel'; to it. Why? After such a nasty close last Friday, prices managed to avert a plunge on Monday morning, turned up, and (perhaps with a nudge from Warren Buffet on Tuesday morning) did not look back. Friday's 'bad news is good news'; reaction to the Employment Report turned out to extend, perhaps fuel, additional strength for a fourth up-day this week.
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Saturday, November 07, 2009
Stock Market Top Likely Reached / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Last week, I called a market top; and the Dow Jones industrial average proceeded to reel off a 3.2% gain. There are a couple of important observations to make about this market action.
First, the tape never lies so it's important to be flexible when the market moves in the direction that you do not expect. While I entered last week slightly net short, I had a trailing stop loss on my major short position TWM and as the market rallied, I was able to close that short position and still preserve some my profits from the preceding week.
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Saturday, November 07, 2009
Bucking Bronco Stock Market Rising With Few Bulls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
We now have the highest jobless rate since 1983 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. soared to a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October and employers cut more jobs than forecast, underscoring why Federal Reserve policy makers say interest rates will remain near zero.
Payrolls fell by 190,000 workers last month, compared with a 175,000 drop anticipated by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The jobless rate gained from 9.8 percent in September and exceeded 10 percent for the first time since 1983.
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Saturday, November 07, 2009
Broad Stock Market Percentages Supports Bullish Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
One of the most important charts that all investors should be watching is the level of bullish participation of stocks on the NYSE Composite. This graph illustrates the number of equities that are trading above their long-term 200-day moving average on the broad-based index. Currently that level is a very bullish 87.67%. This moving average is used by numerous money managers worldwide to determine the trading direction of securities.
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