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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, January 28, 2008

Fed Rate Cut Ignites a Short-lived Stock Market Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_J_Nolte

In this day and age of instant access/analysis and reactions, how can one person have such an effect upon the markets…and it is not the Fed Chief. Could it be that one trader, working for Societe General, create such a mess that the unwinding could push down all the markets around the world and force the Fed here to cut rates by 75 basis points (bp)? Given the relatively unchanged market from the prior week, maybe – however looking at the trading activity for the week, it is a difficult argument to make. As usual, the trading of the week, as well as the news answers fewer questions than it creates, but a few interesting nuggets may be gleaned from some of the very thin data.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 28, 2008

Questioning The Global Stock Market Growth Metric  / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: Captain_Hook

Previously, tactics employed yesterday by price managers to squeeze stocks higher worked well on a prolonged basis, but because bearish traders are not willing to fall for this anymore means rallies are fleeting. (More on this below.) And Da Boyz used up quite a few cards yesterday for a meager 10-point gain in the S&P 500 (SPX), with the most notables in addition to the Bernanke promise of lower rates (meaning it's now discounted in the market) being the rumor Bank Of America is buying Countrywide Financial (meaning this too is now discounted in the market), along with American Airlines raising the pot by opening merger talks. Of course, neither of these sound bites will do anything to help an increasingly stressed consumer, the larger credit crunch, nor increasing cases of insolvency in the end.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 28, 2008

Stock Market Rally Expected to Continue / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Andre_Gratian

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.

SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 28, 2008

Davos, Debt & Systemic Failure - When West Meets East / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe preferred diet of most Davos attendees is a fusion inspired composition of individual, government, and corporate debt combined with a free-market frisee of lax regulatory oversight held together by a roux of central bank credit that dissolves instantly when paired with matching counter-party risk.

The January 2008 gathering in Davos , Switzerland at the World Economic Forum is similar to the 1957 meeting in Palermo , Sicily of American and Sicilian Cosa Nostra crime families who met to discuss mutual problems and opportunities. The notable difference being that those in the Cosa Nostra live outside the law; while those at the World Economic Forum in Davos make them.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Stock Market in the Early Stages of a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: · In the past week new lows dried up on both the NYSE and OTC this implies downside risk will be limited for the next several weeks.

Short Term
Last Tuesday there were 1114 new lows on the NYSE and 877 on the NASDAQ, some of the highest numbers ever recorded. On Friday, a down day, there were 35 new lows on the NYSE and 68 on the NASDAQ. The extremely high numbers on Tuesday imply the bear market is not over while the rapid reduction of new lows implies downside risk will be limited for the next few weeks or months.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Stock Market Bounce - SELL The Rallies! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile stock investors are celebrating late last weeks surprise rally in the Dow, most bond investors are bracing themselves for a new disaster of unquantifiable dimensions.

Ground zero of the new crisis: Precisely the companies that I said would be at ground zero — collapsing bond insurers like MBIA and Ambac, along with the hundreds of thousands of bonds they cover.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Plunge Protection Team Orchestrating a Stock Market Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Joseph_Russo

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Work in Progress
Well, it is blatantly obvious that the (PPT) plunge protection team, presidents working group – or whatever they call themselves - found it necessary to intervene in the free-market in attempt to orchestrate a bottom.

Where are these guys when markets are a boiling-pot of unsustainable parabolic animal spirit? We suspect during such episodes, they are patting themselves on the back for planting the seeds for such bullish orgies

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Stock Market Update: The French 'Rogue Trader' Connection / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Dominick

You may recall in November and December I mentioned patterns that called for a Santa Claus rally extending into the first several months of '08. Now that we know of the colossal fraud at France 's second largest bank, I believe we probably would have seen that rally unfold if not for the liquidation of the massive Societie Generale long positions. As you know, the selling climaxed in the huge holiday selloff early this week and fostered lingering insecurity even after the emergency rate cut until we finally learned Wednesday who killed our rally: the French did it!!

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Stock Market Crash - Robert Prechter on Bloomberg Youtube Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Everyone wants to know, "Is the worst over for stocks?" If you're familiar with Bob Prechter and his work, you won't be surprised that his short answer is "NO." But ... it's his long answer that is much more compelling, including insights into what you should be doing NOW to prepare for what's still to come.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Fed Duped by Rogue Trader and the Destruction of Bond Insurers / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat Does the Fed Really Know?
  • Fed's Folly: Fooled by Flawed Futures?
  • Brother, Can You Spare a Billion?
  • $5 Billion a Quarter
  • Planes, Trains, and Santa Barbara
  • And Charlie Wilson's War

It had been my original intention to devote this week's letter to the view from Europe, as I have been here for the last week, but events have changed that goal. The Federal Reserve made a very rare inter-meeting rate cut of 75 basis points this week, after the worldwide markets were in turmoil. Many pundits suggest the Fed was responding to the worldwide collapse in stock prices. This week we examine that suggestion, and I will offer an alternative explanation. I am beginning this letter in a London subway train. Quickly, the consensus wherever I go seems to be that Europe and the United Kingdom are also headed into recession. There is a lot of interesting ground to cover, so let's get started.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Bailout Battle Raging Between US Government and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: Pardon me, but am I the only one suffering a serious case of whiplash here? I mean, the financial sector developments over the past few days have been amazing ... simply amazing.

Coming into the week, the global markets were in a freefall. While U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day, stock indexes from Hong Kong to London were collapsing on fears of a bond insurance market meltdown.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 26, 2008

How to Survive and Prosper During the Financial Markets Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: Six months ago I warned you that all hell was about to break loose in the U.S. economy. Tumbling real estate values ... tens of billions of dollars in mortgage debt at risk ... the virtually non-stop decline in the dollar ... an ongoing bull market in gold — all pointed to tough times ahead for our country.

Despite the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates by three-quarters of a point this week, the time of reckoning has arrived.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Stock Market Dominant Trend Remains Down / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In the end, investors and traders really did not want to go home long equities Friday, even after the Fed's emergency rate cut on Tuesday, which is certainly not a confidence builder. Maybe the bulls will feel a bit more confident after the weekend.

In any case, I think it is fitting for us to take a look at this week's price range in the S&P 500 and to notice that all of the action, including the post rate-cut rally, has transpired below the last week's critical breakdown plateau at 1362.50.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Stock Market Investors Running With the Herd / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Roger_Conrad

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRunning with the herd certainly beats trying to run against it—and getting trampled in the process. But it comes with a cost: surrendering your own common sense for “group think” that often makes no real sense at all.

As I pointed out last week, the character of the Wall Street herd has changed remarkably over the past two decades. Back in the 1980s, individual investors still accounted for the majority of stock ownership. Today, trading is squarely in the hands of big institutions and those who run them.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Stock Market Gloom and Doom - “Granville's Golden Rule” Versus Conventional Wisdom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarket forecaster Joe Granville was a colorful character in what has always been perceived as a staid and conservative business. The great stock market guru of the 1970s was known for his outlandish antics and prescient market forecasts.

He would often appear at lectures wearing garish costumes, including blinking bow ties, electrified sunglasses, togas, Elvis costumes and chicken outfits. Infamously, he was known for dropping his pants and reading stock quotes to surprised observers.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 25, 2008

The US Fed, Societe Generale Rogue Trader, William Poole, and Black Swans / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: David_Urban

On Tuesday morning, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points in response to a worldwide selloff. The selloff started on mounting fears that the United States has fallen into a recession. The mass fear became so great that the Federal Reserve felt compelled to act before next week's meeting in an attempt to restore confidence in the markets. In the press release, one governor, William Poole from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis voted against a move before next week's meeting. While his actions may leave some people scratching their heads, one needs to go to the website ( http://stlouisfed.org/default.cfm ), note the commentary on the left side of the page, and read the following speech ( http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2008/a/pages/inflation.html ).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 25, 2008

Stocks Secular Bear Market / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market

By: Zeal_LLC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBack in early October when the benchmark S&P 500 stock index was hitting all-time highs, “bear” was a heretical four-letter word. Merely letting it roll off your tongue or spill from your pen offered a fast track to pariah status. In the best of times, people tend to forget that the worst of times are even possible anymore.

But after the most brutal new-year selloff in market history, investors and speculators are far more receptive to the usually taboo topic of stock bears. Most on Wall Street consider a bear market a 20% decline from the latest interim high. This week we came pretty darned close to a 20% slide in S&P 500 (SPX) terms.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, January 25, 2008

Institutional Selling Goes Opposite to Stock Market Direction / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Marty_Chenard

Every day, on our paid subscriber website, we show and rate 9 underlying fundamental conditions that are critical relative to rallies and corrections. 

This morning, we will share one of them with you ...  The rate and trend in Selling by Institutional Investors. 

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 24, 2008

The US Debt and Yen Carry Trade Unwinding Time Bomb is About to Explode! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSynthetic Dollar Short - Richard Russell and other gold writers talked about a ‘synthetic dollar short' based on debt in 04/5. The thesis is that overly indebted entities will face a day when their loans are called in, and the demand for dollars will rise dramatically, as assets are liquidated to pay off positions/debt.

The often discussed Yen carry trade has a similar mechanism, where lots of Yen have been borrowed for the last 10 years and invested in various markets that yield more than the half percent Japanese interest rates. Big and small investors have taken advantage of this more or less free money, riding the interest rate bonus with little risk – up to now.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Investors Lose Relying On Worthless Rating Agencies - Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The one sure way to prolong a depression is to resist it..." – Walter Lippmann, Sept. 1931

ISN'T MODERN LIFE MARVELLOUS? All risk has vanished, not least for high-risk behavior.

Hence Scott Anthony Gomez Jr., now suing the sheriff of Pueblo County in Colorado . Gomez was able to break out of his jail cell, push up a ceiling tile, and crawl to freedom through the ventilation shafts before slipping and falling 85 feet off the roof of his prison.

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