Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 27th May 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Many of the major indices hit multi year or all time highs last week.
Short Term
The small caps lead both up and down and for the past month that leadership has left something to be desired.
The chart below covers the past year showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in green and the Russell 2000 (R2K) in red. At the bottom of the chart is a FastTrack (http://fasttrack.net) relative strength indicator called Accutrack (AT). When AT is above the neutral line and/or rising the R2K is outperforming the SPX. For the past month until about a week ago AT has been below the neutral line and falling to its lowest level since this up leg began last summer. Last week AT turned up and, although it is still below the neutral level, the direction is what we like to see.
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Saturday, May 26, 2007
Thoughts from the Frontline - The US Mortgage Market - Overexposed and Overrated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
The Chinese Hedge Fund Dragon
Turning Nuclear Waste into Gold
Overexposed and Overrated
Housing Is Weaker than the Data Suggests
Planes, Trains, Automobiles, and We're #30
This week we look at the US mortgage market to see what fallout there is from the subprime mortgage woes. It is both less of a problem and/or more of a problem, depending on your perspective, as I predicted it would be last year. Score one for your analyst, which said score is needed as the stock market continues to rise in spite of my concerns in the face of a slowing economy.
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Saturday, May 26, 2007
Can A Major Stock Market Top Occur Here? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
While the following charts are meaningless for predictive purposes, what they do tell us is we currently have a price pattern set-up eerily similar to the price pattern leading up to the January 2000 major top in the Dow Industrials .Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Into the Pool - ETF Skeptic / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Roger_Conrad
Here's a confession from a 20 years-plus industry veteran: I use investment conferences for more than making my points and chatting with current and prospective readers. I also like to scope out what the rest of the industry—including the competition—is doing, chiefly the products they're selling and the public's reception to them.
One of the most popular items at last week's Las Vegas Money Show was exchange traded funds (ETFs). It's not hard to see that these have captured investors' imagination, and dollars, during the past year. The “Wall Street Journal” now publishes what seems to be an ever-expanding page of ETFs that are offered by a growing array of financial houses anxious to cash in on the trend.
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Friday, May 25, 2007
Is Global Stock Market Exuberance Rational / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Peter_Schiff
As stocks markets around the world rise to record highs, even former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan could not refrain from raising concerns about surging Chinese stocks. Lest we forget, Greenspan is on record for declaring the impossibility of spotting a bubble before it bursts. But in the few times that he has violated his own credo, his vision has proven invariably faulty.
Not only did he warn of irrational exuberance in the U.S. just before a five-fold increase in the NASDAQ, but he became one of the markets biggest boosters once the market peaked. Based on his track record, I interpret his statements as a screaming buy signal for Chinese stocks.
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Thursday, May 24, 2007
Utility Futility Suggests the Bear is Growling / Stock-Markets / US Utilities
By: Brady_Willett
With S&P 500 bank/financial stocks the worst performing sectors so far in 2007, it is becoming clear that the inverted yield curve has damaged investor confidence in the group. Conversely, with utility stocks the best performing sector this year, it is obvious that investors have continued their defensive hunt for yield. Suffice to say, given that financial stocks typically outperform early in the cycle and utilities tend to beat other sectors late (or in the down cycle), the action in 2007 would seem to suggest that the bear is growling.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Financial Markets Timing Signals You Must Watch! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: A couple times a year I like to give you my roadmaps of the markets. They are based on actual signals from my computer models. I watch these signals very closely because they tell me when a fork … speed bump … or U-turn is coming in the markets.
They are critical signals, and they should not be ignored. They're not always right. But after 30 years of developing and fine-tuning my system, I can safely say that the economic models they are based on are right far more often than they are wrong.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Going Ballistic: The Hard Facts about Parabolic Spikes Such as China's Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Doug_Wakefield
Living through a mania is supposed to be a once in a lifetime event. For example, the French, who lived through the implosion of the Mississippi Scheme, and the English, who lived the South Sea Bubble collapse in the 1720s, did not see the same parabolic rises again during their lifetimes. Or for a more recent example, consider the parabolic rise of the Nikkei to its all time high in 1989, the aftermath of which has since changed the disposition of the Japanese toward their stock market. As we mentioned in The Nikkei: Raiders of the Lost Ark , Japanese nationals have a different view of their stock market than foreign hedge fund managers.
“Although there is a problem in that its [ Japan 's] stock market is supported primarily by foreign investors, Japanese nationals make up 95% of its government bond market." 1
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Make That a Cheap Money Bubble to Go / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Adrian_Ash
"...From Shanghai to Soho, the flood of cheap money is causing fresh mischief each day. Investors beware! Creating value is fast losing out to just taking profits..."
"WHY NOT SELL UP? He's been grilling cheese sandwiches for the last 40 years. Now his café and the apartment upstairs are worth £2.5 million [just shy of $5 million]. He can retire rich overnight!
"So what if Costa Coffee or one of the other chains move in? Okay, London's famously cool Soho district loses character...and it loses a little institution, too. But who cares? This guy certainly doesn't. He cashes out and never has to make a frothy coffee again.
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
The Ballistic Brazilian Bovespa Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Brazil
By: Gary_Dorsch
Higher prices for commodities from coffee to soybeans and iron ore to crude oil, have brought new found wealth to Brazil. Since the election of President Lula de Silva in 2003, Brazil has emerged as a major player in global trade, and its currency - the real, has climbed by 70% against the US dollar, with a trade deficit shifting into a massive surplus. The Bovespa index on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange reached a record high of 52,750 this week, and is up 18.2% so far in 2007.Brazil economic output rose to $1.6 trillion last year, or half of South America's GDP, and making it the ninth largest economy in the world. Brazil occupies half the South American continent, contains half of its population with 200 million, and is the fifth most populous country in the world. However, there are vast disparities in the distribution of the country's land and wealth, and Brazil has the greatest number of people living in poverty in all of Latin America.
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
New Investing Boom in Hong Kong / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: Greetings from Shenzhen, China!
I just got here this morning, after stops in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
And as you might guess, traveling like this can get exhausting. But while I was in Hong Kong, I got a much needed shot of adrenaline.
That's because the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a sweeping change that will permit Chinese institutional investors — banks, insurance companies, and mutual funds — to invest billions in the Hong Kong stock market.
In other words, the timing of my trip couldn't have been better! Everything tells me money is going to pour into Hong Kong equities, sending some of them to the moon. And investors who take advantage of this monumental opportunity stand to reap amazing profits. Let me explain …
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Nolte Notes - Market Equilibrium / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Ladies and gentlemen: we have reached cruising speed, the turbulence of a few months ago is merely a memory and with the added boosts from mergers and acquisitions, we should be flying by the moon in just a couple of weeks. While just a bit fanciful, the markets are not interested in stopping or even slowing down for economic reports that conflict with the view that all is well in the world of investing. While the current euphoria over stock investing will likely last for a while longer, we are surprised at the few actual declines in the markets over the past two months. Housing, the kill-joy of the economy (along with the recent poor reports on retail sales) still shows little in the way of good news, as starts looked ok, but permits (the future construction) declined again – as did the index of sentiment of home builders n general.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 21, 2007
Honest Money Financial Markets Wrap - Stocks, Commodities and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The Conference Board reported that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.5%, the coincident index increased 0.2%, and the lagging index increased 0.2% last month (April). In April, the NAHB's (national association of home builders) index registered 33; for May, it was 30. The trend is clearly headed down. This is not good.
The Philly Fed Index came in at +4.2 compared with the previous +0.2. For April, the Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 88.7 from 87.1. This is good.
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Monday, May 21, 2007
Regulation of FInancial Markets - The Pursuit of Principles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_Petillo
While many of us have been focusing on mortgage meltdowns, stock surges and inflation indicators, several of our distinguished financial leaders have been looking for ways to improve the marketplace.
Using the argument that rules tend to squash innovation and do little to lure the rest of the globe to our financial shores, the call for more principles and less regulation is quietly making its way out of the backroom and closer to reality.
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Monday, May 21, 2007
The NEXT foreign stock market to blast off ... / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: My global team and I aren't in a race to pick the world's leading stock market.
But right now, the star performer happens to be my personal favorite: Brazil. (And soon, the spotlight could shift to another market I'll tell you about in just a moment.)
Back in January, I told you Brazil was primed to be another "China-like miracle ." I explained why Brazil is one of the greatest beneficiaries of the China boom .
And I told you how Brazil's ethanol explosion would help propel the country even further.
Plus, two weeks ago, I gave you a heads up that Brazil would soon be upgraded by a major U.S. rating agency.
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Monday, May 21, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 21st May 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Andre_Gratian
A 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis
Cycles - Breadth - Price projections
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-year cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point some of its dominant components are topping and could lead to a severe correction over the next few months.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - With the price reaching the preferred target area, the rally from 3/14 should be coming to an end.
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Analysis - Houston , We Have LIFT OFF! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Can you believe we're just a day's rally away from the 2000 high? I'm sure plenty of investors out there would rather forget about that time, as they were probably buying only to sell out during the severe decline going into the 2002 lows. Now they're wondering if they should be back in. Well, there's thirty-plus points to go and lots of mistakes can be buried in Elliott land as if they never existed.
Some say that controlling emotions is an important part of trading. I say it could be the most important part. The two most destructive emotions for trading are Fear and Greed. I'm sure both have been wreaking havoc lately and are about to kick in on an even more massive scale.
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
The Sock Market Raging Bulls / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Two weeks ago, we shared with readers a perception that equity markets were bullish like no tomorrow . That general assessment has held course thus far. However, intermediate level timing models are suggesting that equity markets may be fast approaching a juncture of pivotal import. If so, many broad market indices will soon elect one of three critical paths in the days and weeks ahead. Our continued diligence monitoring minor degree trends, together with intra-day price structures; enables us to anticipate which of these critical paths each market is in the process of adopting.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 19th May 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The blue chip indices hit multi year or all time highs last week.
Short Term
Some of the small cap short term indicators appeared to have bottomed and turned upward last week. Seasonally the last week and a half in May have been strong, so it appears likely the recent weakness in the small caps is ending.
Friday, May 18, 2007
The Dow Theory…..Did it Fail? / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
As the Industrials topped out in 2000 and plunged nearly 38 percent into the 2002 low, every indication, according to Dow theory, was that an extended secular bear market had begun. Also, because of the Dow theory phasing along with the normal bull and bear market relationships, as the rally from the 2002 low began, indications were that this was the rally separating Phase I from Phase II of a much longer-term bear market. So, what went wrong? In this article I want to examine the chain of events that have transpired since the 2002 low and in doing so look at where we are and the lessons that have been learned.Read full article... Read full article...