Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe
The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation.
One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2013
1% U.S. Economic Growth: QE Policy a Failure, Time for A Change / Economics / US Economy
By: EconMatters
Fed Policy – Pushing on a string: Is far too Kind
Economists are now ratcheting down their forecasts for final 2nd quarter GDP to 1% which just further illustrates the ineffectiveness of fed policy measures. Ben Bernanke blames fiscal policies out of Washington, saying he can only do so much to counteract their lack of a healthy tax code, job creation plans, and inefficiencies.
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Monday, July 15, 2013
Why a U.S. Recession Within the Next 12 Months Is Inevitable / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
One fact has become quite clear: if we want to see robust growth in our gross domestic product (GDP), then there needs to be a significant change in consumer spending.
But current consumer spending in the U.S. economy is looking bleak, and it makes me skeptical about the GDP growth ahead. We’ve already seen GDP in the first quarter revised lower due to consumer spending; and it won’t be a surprise to me if something similar happens in the second quarter.
Friday, July 12, 2013
Inflation - The Real Thing / Economics / Inflation
By: Fred_Sheehan
"[T]he concept of the general price level is extremely vague and we cannot even speak of a very approximate determination of the average price level. Every index number is to a certain extent arbitrary: the selection of the commodities that are to be included, the choice of the weighting, the base from which the index starts, and, lastly, the mathematical processes applied, are all arbitrary..."
Read full article... Read full article...-Wilhelm Röpke, Crises and Cycles, 1936
Friday, July 12, 2013
U.S. Economic Tide Has Turned, Market Implications / Economics / US Economy
By: Puru_Saxena
The world’s economic landscape is changing and after a disastrous decade, America is once again in the driver’s seat. Contrary to the 2000-2011 time frame (when the developing nations fared a lot better than America), the tide seems to have turned in favour of the world’s largest economy.
As you will recall, at the turn of the millennium, American business was booming and Wall Street was caught up in an epic technology bubble! Back then, American assets were highly sought after and even its currency was extremely strong. Unfortunately, that period of prosperity did not last forever and the bursting of the technology bubble in March 2000 ushered in an era of painful adjustment. Thereafter, in the aftermath of the NASDAQ bust, Mr. Greenspan helped ignite America’s housing boom and we all know how that story ended. To make matters worse, the US Dollar also topped out in 2001 and for almost 10 years, holders of American assets also suffered due to currency devaluation.
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Friday, July 12, 2013
China GDP Growth Rate Falls to 6.7% / Economics / China Economy
By: EconMatters
China releases 2nd quarter GDP data Sunday night in US time zones and it is going to be ugly based upon all the second quarter econ data we have received throughout these three months. The trend is going south fast, and as bad as the second quarter GDP figures are the third quarter GDP will be even worse because of the effects of tightening measures to try to get a handle on the shadow banking sector.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Global Shipping Contends with Oversupply Problems / Economics / Global Economy
By: STRATFOR
The global shipping industry is oversupplied. Because supply far exceeds demand, shipping rates have plummeted, as have the prices of ships. Some shipping companies have sought to capitalize on this trend by purchasing newer, larger ships at lower prices so that they can remain price competitive. But unless demand rebounds by the time these ships become operational, the industry's oversupply problem will only worsen.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
No U.S. Inflationary Risk, Banks May Shrink Balance Sheets / Economics / Inflation
By: Bloomberg
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink joined Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on "Market Makers" today and said he does not see any inflationary risk in the United States. Fink went on to say that banks may shrink balance sheets on rules requiring financial companies to have higher capital ratios: "If they shrink their balance sheet, we're going to have a more aggravated problem in the future because banks are the largest owner of U.S. Treasuries."
During the hour-long interview, Fink gave insights on China, emerging markets, the bond market, the role the wants BlackRock to play in the market, and his thoughts on Ben Bernanke, Hillary Clinton and President Obama.
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Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Why QE3 Hasn’t Triggered Inflation – So Far / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: When you pump massive amounts of money into an economy, as the U.S. Federal Reserve has done with QE1 through QE3, you're supposed to get some measure of inflation.
And yet despite some $2.3 trillion of quantitative easing since 2008, the core inflation rate has actually fallen over the past year from about 2.25% to 1.7% as of May.
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Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Part-Time Employment is the New Normal / Economics / Employment
By: BATR
Intuitively, most observers sense that employment practices have changed dramatically from days gone by. Terence P. Jeffrey in CNS News provides the stats on the disappointing jobs record performance. "Since January 2009, when Barack Obama was inaugurated as president, the United States has seen 54 straight months with the unemployment rate at 7.5 percent or higher, which is the longest stretch of unemployment at or above that rate since 1948, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics started calculating the national unemployment rate." So what will employment prospects become as the economy struggles to regain some modest semblance of prosperity?
Saturday, July 06, 2013
Refutation of Economic Illusion with Gold and Silver Safety Perfect Timing / Economics / Global Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Illusions trick us into perceiving something different than what actually exists and the mainstream media is very good at creating them. Currently they have the herd convinced there is an economic recovery underway.
We all need to understand that to have a real, and sustainable recovery for an economy that relies on consumer spending for 70 percent of its activity we need to have a jobs recovery.
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Saturday, July 06, 2013
What the Worst U.S. Jobs Report of the Year Means to You / Economics / Employment
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
On the surface, today’s jobs market report looks good…
195,000 jobs were created in the U.S. economy during the month of June, with the “official” unemployment rate for the month sitting at 7.6%, unchanged from May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 5, 2013.)
Saturday, July 06, 2013
Draghi's Guidance Light is Non-farm Payrolls Train at End of Tunnel / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Ashraf_Laidi
US June non-farm payrolls rose by 195K, surpassing forerecasts of 165K, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 7.6%. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find 12 consecutive monthly readings of +100K NFP. Not only non-farm payrolls have shown 3 consecutive monthly net additions of greater than 190K, but 12 consecutive monthly readings above 100K, the last time this was seen was in May 1999-May 2000.
Friday, July 05, 2013
Central Banks Seal Europe's Economic Suicide Pact / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
RISK OFF FOR THE MARKETS
Through a probably linked and coordinated decision, the two former Goldman insiders – the ECB's Mario Draghi and the BOE's Mark Carney – acted to further destroy the need or desire for personal savers to have savings at all, by holding interest rates at extreme lows. And they went further.
Also probably coordinated, both the ex-Goldman insiders now running European central banking took an “unprecedented step”. They both promised – or threatened – further rate cuts.
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Tuesday, July 02, 2013
Can Bernanke Brake Without Derailing U.S. Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy
By: Frank_Shostak
According to most commentators, reducing monetary stimulus and winding down the balance sheet of the Fed without major economic disruptions is going to be a major challenge for US central bank policy makers. On Wednesday, June 19 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said that given an improved outlook on the economy, the US central bank may moderate the pace of monetary pumping. According to Bernanke, by mid-2014 the Fed may even end the purchasing of assets.
Tuesday, July 02, 2013
Syria’s Annual Inflation Hits 200% / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In an attempt to beat Western sanctions and halt the fall in the Syrian pound, the Assad regime – with the help of Iran, Russia, and China – has begun conducting all of its business in rials, roubles, and renminbi. This decision supplements other existing arrangements between Syria and its allies that are keeping the Syrian economy on life-support. These include transfers of $500 million per month in oil and an unlimited credit line with Tehran for food and oil-product imports.
Sunday, June 30, 2013
China's Economic Rebalancing Killed The Asian Locomotive / Economics / China Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
PEKIN SCHEMES, PEKIN DREAMS
As we know, if we believe what we read in the media, Edward Snowden might be trying to return home and face show trial, but “under his own conditions”. In any case Vladimir Putin will be glad to get rid of him the same way China's leadership very quickly passed the buck, or rather the Snowden hot potato to Putin. More important for the world economy, China is no longer playing Asian Locomotive and has radical new plans – due to the pressures causing the new plans – for steering its economy.
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Market Monopoly Through Austrian Economics Lenses / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Newman writes: A recent 60 Minutes piece by Lesley Stahl cut into an extremely urgent problem of our day: expensive sunglasses. The report identified a possible monopoly in the market for glasses, a firm called Luxottica, which owns almost all the leading brands of eyewear, four large retailers of glasses, and even a popular vision insurance provider.
Stahl interviewed the CEO of Luxottica, Andrea Guerra, and questioned his business practices, the prices of his products, and Luxottica’s growth over the years. At times, she almost seemed to scold the successful CEO for, well, being so successful.
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Saturday, June 29, 2013
Dismal U.S. Consumer Spending to Drag U.S. Back into Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: While the mainstream economists were quick to believe that the U.S. economy is growing as the key stock indices suggest, I stood by my opinion that it isn’t.
After the first estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the U.S. economy came out, a wave of optimism struck and stock markets rallied. It seemed as if everything was headed in the right direction.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
What’s So Scary About Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: MISES
Frank Hollenbeck writes: When it comes to deflation, mainstream economics becomes not the science of common sense, but the science of nonsense. Most economists today are quick to say, “a little inflation is a good thing,” and they fear deflation. Of course, in their personal lives, these same economists hunt the newspapers for the latest sales.