Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Total Failure of Bush’s “Bail-Outs” and Obama’s “Stimulus” / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Submissions
Philip Szlyk writes: The Bush and Obama bail-outs and "stimulus" plans have been a total failure. The evidence? While "official unemployment" hovers around 9.6%, this figure excludes those formerly-employed people who, for now, have given up looking for work. It also excludes the large numbers of the formerly-employed who have opted to retire at age 62, allowing them to receive federal Social Security payments. When these two groups are included in the calculations, true unemployment has been estimated between 18% and 25%. If one further considers the large increases in government hiring (e.g., 700,000 temporary U.S. Census workers; increases in Dept of Homeland Security workers), it becomes clear that the true private-sector unemployment rate easily exceeds 25%.
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Sunday, July 18, 2010
The Debt Supercycle Path to Profligacy and End Game / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
The Debt Supercycle
Somewhere Over the Rainbow
The Path to Profligacy
Things That Cannot Be
I have been writing about The End Game for some time now. And writing a book of the same title. Consequently, I have been thinking a lot about how the credit crisis evolved into the sovereign debt crisis, and how it all ends. Today we explore a few musings I have had of late, while we look at some very interesting research. What will a world look like as a variety of nations have to deal with the end of their Debt Supercycle. We'll jump right in with no "but first's" this week.
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Sunday, July 18, 2010
Debunking Paul Krugman's Icelandic Economic Miracle / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dian_L_Chu
With op-ed pieces such as "Budget Deficits: Spend Now, Save Later", it is of no surprise that Paul Krugman declares--Iceland--a "Post-Crisis Miracle."
In an article dated June 30, Krugman wrote: "...although Iceland is generally considered to have experienced the worst financial crisis in history, its punishment has actually been substantially less than that of other nations."
Saturday, July 17, 2010
ShadowStats U.S. CPI Inflation Running at 4.3%, Gold $2,382, Silver $139 / Economics / Inflation
By: Jesse
ShadowStats U.S. CPI Inflation Running at 4.3%, Gold $2,382, Silver $139
Something Weimar this way comes?
There is almost no doubt in my mind that we will see these prices for gold and silver. I am just not sure exactly how we will get there, and when. But I expect the unexpected, or at least that which is not expected by the many.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
The Money Supply Conspiracy / Economics / Money Supply
By: Richard_Daughty
Marin Katusa is Chief Energy Strategist for Casey Research, which probably made it easier for him to get his stuff into Casey’s Daily Dispatch, whereas no matter what I write, they always say to me, “This is crap! Stop sending us your Stupid Mogambo Crap (SMC)! It’s crap! It’s always crap!”
Friday, July 16, 2010
U.S. CPI Negative 3rd Consecutive Month, Consumers Have a Selective Memory / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
As expected, as least as I expected, the Consumer Price Index for June shows the seasonally adjusted CPI was Negative 3rd Consecutive Month.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Is the Economic Recovery an Illusion? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
There’s too much money happy to be right where it is, not about to come out of hiding and provide fuel for the economy.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Global Economics and the “Baton Toss” / Economics / Global Economy
By: HRA_Advisory
Recent conferencing in Toronto was another waypoint in the transit of global authority. The G8 (G7+Russia) economics discussion group began broadening a decade ago with creation of a forum of economic ministries. The western banking crisis pushed that larger forum to heads of government level. The long planned G8 gabfest in a wealthy enclave of Ontario’s cottage country had a city centre G20 (G19+EU) gathering appended to it. Even protest groups who claimed allegiance with emerging economies a decade ago knew G8 was but a preamble and focused on the quickly organized G20 fete.&
Friday, July 16, 2010
Fed Money Printing Won't Matter Much to the Real Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Larson
In the wake of the latest batch of “double-dip” chatter, the market’s attention is shifting back to the Federal Reserve. Investors are asking a simple question:
Read full article... Read full article...“What, if anything, will the Fed do if the economy craps out again?”
Friday, July 16, 2010
U.S. State Budget Debt Crises Threatens Economic Recovery / Economics / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Across the country state budget crises are threatening to undermine the U.S. economic recovery.
Some 48 states are emerging from a round of painful budget cuts for their 2010 fiscal budgets, and at least 46 states face shortfalls for the upcoming 2011 fiscal year, which in most states began July 1.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Most Russians Spend All Earnings on Current Consumption / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
Fifty percent of Russians have to spend all their money on current consumption without saving anything. A quarter of the Russian nationals have savings, but only 8 percent of them can live on that money for over one year. However, people's savings on bank deposits have been growing steadily. It increased by 26.7 percent in 2009 and exceeded 8 trillion rubles in May 2010.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
World Cup Football Saves Spain's Economy from Collapse / Economics / Spain
By: Pravda
The victory of the Spaniards over the Dutch in the World Cup will help the economy, experts say. The euphoria of the victory improves the mood of the population, and the population in a good mood begins to spend more money and shop more frequently. According to ING and ABN Amro banks, the gold medal of the Spanish national team will boost the country's GDP growth by 0.25-0.5%.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Economics in Freefall / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
I admire Joseph E. Stiglitz, because he has a social conscience and a sense of justice, the absence of which turns economists into monsters. Despite his virtues and Nobel Prize, Stiglitz sometimes falls down as an economist. Readers of my new book, How The Economy Was Lost, will be aware that I take him to task for the Solow-Stiglitz production function, which seriously misleads economics about the scarcity of nature’s capital.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Government Policies Pushing U.S. Economy Towards Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: John_Browne
Despite several quarters of rising GDP, and the upbeat exertions of Administration spokespeople, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has yet to announce the recession is over. Their reluctance is well-founded. It is beginning to dawn on even the more optimistic analysts that the tepid growth we have seen over the past three quarters is only an interlude in an otherwise grave and prolonged recession. Moreover, the respite will cost dearly as the United States has racked up a generation worth of debt for dubious benefit.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Illinois Higher Debt Default Risk than Iceland / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Dian_L_Chu
Illinois made headlines a few weeks ago when it overtook California as the worst credit risk among American states. Now, the fifth most populous state in the U.S. has officially overtaken Iceland in the default risk category as well. (See screenshot below from CMA site today)
Thursday, July 15, 2010
The Fed is Steering U.S. Economy into Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed is steering the economy into deflation. It's a political calculation that will keep unemployment high, increase excess capacity, and deepen the recession. C.P.I. continues to fall, bank lending is down 4 percent year-over-year, housing prices are slipping, business investment is off, and consumer credit continues to shrink. On Wednesday, the Commerce Dept reported that retail sales fell 0.5 percent, more than analysts expected. This is the second drop in retail purchases in the last two months signaling weakness in consumer demand.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Savings Are a Lousy Excuse for America’s Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
Everyone who’s been paying attention knows by now that Americans consume too much and save too little. This is statistically true, but it has unfortunately become the basis of a mischievous lie about the cause of America’s monstrous trade deficits. That is, many orthodox economists have been claiming that our trade deficit is really a savings problem in disguise.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Census Bureau Reports Fictional Hogwash About Retail Sales / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today the Census Bureau posted its Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services Report for June 2010.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Money Disillusion, 8 Ugly Facts About U.K. Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
Behold the sad case of the poor British worker and saver...
PEOPLE BUY GOLD when they fear inflation ahead. But they also buy gold when inflation arrives and starts eating into their savings – which is just what it's done during the last decade.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Economics Is Easy Except for Academic Economists / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Sterling T. Terrell writes: I stumbled across an interesting article a few days ago. Written by Kartik Athreya, of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the article is titled "Economics is Hard. Don't Let Bloggers Tell You Otherwise."