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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

The Morality of Economics: The Key Issue of the 21st Century / Economics / Social Issues

By: Richard_C_Cook

Since January 2007, Richard C Cook has published a series of articles on the urgent need for economic and monetary reform.

Some readers have commented on how distant these monetary reform recommendations are from current practice. The reason for this is simply that the recommendations derive from a starting point that is not customary.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Wealth Effect or Borrowing / Asset Sales Effect? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

In the question-and-answer session following his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pooh-poohed the notion that mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) had played much of a role in funding household spending in recent years. Rather, Chairman Bernanke, like most academics, cited the "wealth effect" as responsible for stimulating household spending.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Q2 US Real GDP Growth Forecast: Chicago Fed at 2.7%; Consensus at 3.2% / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Of course, the Chicago Fed does not release to the public its GDP forecasts. But it does publish an index called the National Activity Index (NAI), which is, in effect, a darned good coincident indicator of real GDP growth. The NAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of economic activity drawn from five broad categories:

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Economics

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Composition of the U.S. Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply

By: Mike_Hewitt

How much U.S. money is in circulation? Printed currency and coins amount to less than US$800 billion. This represents only a small portion of the total money supply. The following essay shows the composition of various monetary aggregates used by the Federal Reserves to define the total amount of money available.

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Economics

Monday, July 23, 2007

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson: The Coming Financial Crash Shows Need for Immediate Monetary Reform / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Richard_C_Cook

US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr., has joined the chorus of those in high places who are warning of a major worldwide economic downturn.

Paulson was quoted at length in a July 23, 2007, article in Fortune by Rik Kirkland entitled, “The Greatest Economic Boom Ever: Enjoy It While It Lasts.” Paulson's remarks came in the context of assessing the ability of the highly-leveraged equity, hedge, and derivative markets to withstand the shocks to come. He told Fortune in an interview:

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Economics

Saturday, July 21, 2007

More Evidence of Spillover from US Housing Market to Consumer Sector / Economics / US Housing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

We have been forecasting that the housing recession would have a negative knock-on effect on discretionary consumer spending. Six successive months of declining light motor vehicle sales is corroborating evidence of this. If J. D. Power has got its numbers correct, July is on course to mark the seventh consecutive month in which car and truck sales decline.

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Economics

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Chinese Money Supply - How Do You Say "Rube Goldberg" in Chinese? / Economics / China Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

China has an economic problem - inflation. When I speak of Chinese inflation, I am referring to what the People's Bank of China (PBOC, not to be confused with PB&J) is doing - creating massive amounts of credit "out of thin air." Chart 1 shows that the total assets on the PBOC's balance sheet grew by approximately 29% in the 12 months ended May. Although that is down from peak growth of 38% in the 12 months ended September 2005, 29% still is a sizeable increase in central bank credit creation.

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Economics

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Return Of The Gold Standard / Economics / Money Supply

By: James_West_2

We humans are remarkably committed to self delusion.

From the personal level to the most powerful government on earth, we contrive realities with distorted perspectives so we can execute ideas that would otherwise cause us to hesitate if we were to objectively and honestly consider their moral implications. The moral code is constantly being revised to accommodate current events.

World War I is a perfect example.

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Economics

Friday, July 20, 2007

Central Bankers - Stop! Or the Economy Gets It / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

"...If only consumers hadn't taken the world's central bankers at their word..."

WE ONLY have ourselves to blame. Consumers in the West, rich in credit ratings if not cash, shouldn't have borrowed and spent so much money when interest rates hit a half-a-century low in 2003.

Nor should we have continued to borrow and spend when the rate of interest slipped below the inflation rate – making debt pay as cash savings lost value – over the next two years.

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Economics

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Who Do We Owe and How Much? / Economics / US Debt

By: Mike_Hewitt

This essay takes an in-depth look at the magnitude and consequences of the large debt levels within the United States. Topics discussed include: composition of foreign and domestic holders of U.S. debt, consequences of the government borrowing from the Federal Reserve, and a look at the current U.S. housing market.

The National Debt

The national debt (also known as public debt) is money owed by the federal government. As the government represents the people, government debt can be seen as an indirect debt of the taxpayers. The U.S. government incurs debt by issuing treasuries (bills, notes and bonds).

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Economics

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Philly Fed President Plosser: Consumer Spending, Exports Are Cause for Optimism / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Really?
Light motor vehicle sales down for six consecutive months (see Chart 1) is cause for consumer spending optimism? Bed Bath & Beyond, Best Buy, Circuit City, Sears Holdings, Home Depot and West Marine recently issuing profit warnings are a cause for consumer spending optimism?

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Economics

Thursday, July 12, 2007

US Economy Nightmare Warnings! and How to Protect Yourself Now! / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry Edelson writes: I hate to say it, but I believe the next five to six months will harbor nightmares for the U.S. economy so profound that they will impact each and every one of us.

Before I go any further, let me say that I'm not a gloom-and-doomer. Longer term, I am very optimistic about U.S. and global economic growth. I'm even optimistic on the U.S. real estate market. But I'm also a realist …

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Economics

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

The Crack-up Boom Series Part V, Introduction - It's Bigger Than Just the dollar! / Economics / Money Supply

By: Ty_Andros

For greater insight into our publication, have a look at the Overview of Tedbits . It helps current and potential subscribers understand our mission in serving you. It also gives a broad description of what's unfolding globally and what you can expect from Tedbits as a regular reader.

Crack-Up Boom Series Intro

The Crack Up Boom series is exploring the unfolding “Indirect Exchange” (as detailed by Ludvig Von Mises), that dollar holders will be using to exit their holdings now and eventually is will be followed by all holders of fiat currency holdings no matter which country is perpetrating the “crime” of confiscation of wealth through the printing and credit creation process that all such monetary schemes evolve into.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

US Bureau of Labor Statistics "Phantom" Workers Now Account for 56% of Payroll Increase / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics attempts to estimate how many jobs were created (or eliminated) by smaller businesses not yet included in its survey of employers. This estimate is referred to as the "birth/death" adjustment. In the 12 months ended June, total-not-seasonally-adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.982 million. During the same interval, the birth/death adjustment contributed 1.111 million jobs to the total. That is, in the 12 months ended June, the birth/death adjustment accounted for 56.0% of the 12-month increase in total nonfarm payrolls.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Explaining the US Consumer Price Index / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

This week in Outside the Box we look at a Congressional Budget Office publication that dives us the details on how the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) is created. This is, as the CBO posits, the best-known official measure of inflation.

The brief that follows will venture to explain the methods used to construct the CPI-U, and how and why the index's estimates of inflation might differ from a consumer's perceptions of price changes. Though I think this article may be somewhat akin to discovering what components comprise the makeup of sausages (knowledge that is usually best left undiscovered), it is useful to understand just how the inflation data is constructed. Some of the points they make are controversial, especially when it comes to "hedonic" pricing, which they refer to as "shifts in the quality of goods and services over time." This does allow for some quite subjective influence in the inflation numbers. While I will visit this topic in a later letter, it is good to know what is and is not being measured.

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Economics

Friday, July 06, 2007

The Tentacles of the Housing Recession Are Beginning to Strangle the US Consumer / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Light motor vehicle sales in the U.S. dropped 3.4% month-to-month in June to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.6 million units. Excluding the Katrina-depressed sales of September 2005, the June 2007 sales rate was the slowest since September 2002. Light motor vehicle sales have declined sequentially for six consecutive months (see Chart 1). On a quarterly average basis, new light motor vehicle sales contracted at an annual rate of 12.7% in Q2 vs. a 6.2% increase in Q1.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Credit as a Public Utility: the Key to Monetary Reform - Part 2 / Economics / Money Supply

By: Richard_C_Cook

A continuation of Richard C Cook's two part article on reforming the US Monetary System - Click Here for Part 1

THE AMERICAN EXPERIENCE

Monetary matters were clearer in England's American colonies. From the founding of Jamestown in 1607 to late in the American Revolution in 1779 there was not a single bank in North America. Goods were bartered, coinage entered the colonies through trade, and even Indian wampum was utilized. But all this was insufficient, so the colonial governments began to issue their own paper money. Notes were issued to landowners who use their land as collateral, or, in Virginia, to owners of tobacco in government warehouses.

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Economics

Saturday, June 30, 2007

Sovereign Wealth Funds / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Mike_Hewitt

Central banks have traditionally kept their reserves in relatively low-yielding, highly liquid government securities, agency debt, money-market instruments and bank deposits. The most current official IMF figure for official worldwide foreign currency reserves is US$5.89 trillion. At US$1.35 trillion, China holds the world's largest pool of official reserves, followed by Japan with US$911 billion and Russia with US$403 billion.

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Economics

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Chicago Fed Index Suggests Continued Below Trend US Growth in Q2 / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The Chicago Fed publishes a national economic activity index each month that only the Chicago Fed's economic research department and I pay attention to. This index is not a leading one, but is a coincident one.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of economic activity drawn from five broad categories: 1) output and income 2) employment, unemployment and hours 3) personal consumption, housing starts and sales 4) manufacturing and trade sales and 5) inventories and orders.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

So, the US Housing Recession Is Contained? / Economics / US Housing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

That's the conventional wisdom, but recent reports from retailers might suggest otherwise. Early in June, Bed Bath & Beyond issued a profit warning. BB&B's chief executive, Steven Temares, said: "Based upon what we have experienced and has been reported by others, the overall retailing environment, especially sales of merchandise related to the home , has been challenging" (emphasis added).

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