Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Bail me out Bernanke / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Peter_Schiff
Now that the Fed and the Treasury Department have clumsily come to the rescue of the financial titans of Wall Street, it is now politically dangerous to resist similar pleas from just about everybody else. Populism is emerging as a dominant theme is this election year, and with so much largesse showered on Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase, politicians are demanding even more generous terms for consumers. In Washington , it seems that two wrongs apparently make a right. Another downside to corporate bailouts is that they provide the critics of free market capitalism with plenty of excuses to weigh down American economic vitality with even more unnecessary regulation.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Three Lessons from the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: A huge bull market in commodities takes a downturn. Equities are getting clobbered. The nation is groaning under insurmountable debts after the banks throw caution to the wind.
It's an election year, and some people say the market is over-regulated — others that it's not regulated enough. All the while, weather is making headlines — in fact, some people believe the weather could herald the beginning of the end.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2008
New Economic and Financial System to Arise from the Credit Crisis Ashes / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week I take great pride and pleasure in being able to bring you a recent letter from my very good friend Peter Bernstein. I asked him to let me publish this, as I think this is one of the more important, thought-provoking pieces I have read in a very long time. I am grateful for that permission, as you will be when you read this. I would take the time to read it through several times. Read this paragraph from the beginning of the letter to get an idea of the thought path down which Peter is going to take us: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 24, 2008
Savings and the US Economy- Fallacy of Including Home Ownership in Savings / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
A while ago David Malpass, financial writer and chief economist at Bear Stearns, (and I do mean that Bear Stearns) argued that US savings are under reported because they exclude "cash flow improvements from realized gains on equities, houses, and mortgage refinancing." Now I am not referring to Malpass as a means to take a swipe at Bear Stearns and the quality of its advisors: that's the market's job. What Malpass did was to inadvertently draw attention to the confusion that reigns among the economic commentariat with respect to the nature of saving and its critical importance for economic welfare. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Wall St. Stocks Rally on Philly Fed US Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
"NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Thursday, pushing the Dow briefly up more than 1 percent, as a reading on factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell by less than analysts' had forecast, improving views on the U.S. economic outlook."
Tell me. On what basis did "analysts" have to predict what the Philly Fed March factory activity headline would be? For that matter, on what basis do "analysts" have for predicting what weekly initial jobless claims will be.
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Thursday, March 20, 2008
Shadow of the Great Depression and 1970's Stagflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Every morning, when you look in the mirror, I want you to think 'What am I going to do today to increase the money supply?'..." John Ehrlichman, assistant to Richard Nixon, apparently speaking to Charles Pardee, a Federal Reserve governor,sometime in the early 1970s
SO WE'RE ALL agreed then.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
UK Inflation CPI Rises to 2.5% for 2009 UK Election? / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Inflation as measured by the CPI Index rose to 2.5% for February, however the rise was wholly due to a change in the way the index is calculated without which the CPI would probably have remained unchanged. The more accepted RPI inflation index remained unchanged at 4.1%. Therefore the artificial boost to the CPI suggests the intention for the creation of a spike in UK CPI inflation now which will leave the indices in 12 months time, thus resulting in a drop in CPI inflation and hence have the prospects for interest rate cuts in the lead up to the summer of 2009, which could present Gordon Brown with an ideal opportunity to go to the polls.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 17, 2008
The Dual Paradigms Of Today's Stagflation and Deflation Macro Economic Conditions / Economics / Stagflation
By: Captain_Hook
Many are now categorizing current macro economic conditions as being an instance of stagflation . And while current circumstances definitely appear to be so, in my opinion one needs to go past the definition of stagflation to capture the essence of macro conditions at present, because this is not your father's economy. In the last inflation cycle witnessed in the 70's, wages were growing and people had savings, and we still had the disinflation period this sponsored up until millenniums turn to live through. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 17, 2008
US Economy Hit by Monetary Storm / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
The current monetary crisis has brought forth an avalanche of opinions on what President Bush and the Fed need to do to arrest the dollar's decline and prevent a recession. But what really needs to be done? The quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles is betting that there will not be a recession, though there will be a significant downturn in the rate of growth. Of course, there is the usual caveat that if consumers reduce their purchases of big-ticket items this could bring on a recession. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Monopoly Goes Live…with an Inflationary Twist / Economics / Money Supply
By: David_Petch
Monopoly is one of the most popular board games ever created, which was first patented in 1935 by Charles Darrow. The object of the game is to accumulate as much of the property over the course of the game until everyone else is wiped out…there are more eloquent ways to define the rules, but the above definition is the blunt version. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 14, 2008
The Road to Hyperinflation- Vive La France! / Economics / Stagflation
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, as the financial sector began to give way under the unbearable weight of bad mortgage debt, the Federal Reserve stepped in to save the day. At least that's what it says in the script. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 14, 2008
US Manipulated CPI Inflation Statistics- Stagflation 1980 and Now / Economics / Stagflation
By: Tim_Iacono
There's been a lot of talk in recent months about how different the current period is from bouts of "stagflation" in the 1970s and early 1980s. According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), "inflation" peaked in 1980 at around 14 percent or so and many pundits today say that we'll never see those levels ever again.
They're probably right ... but not for the reasons you might think.
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Friday, March 14, 2008
US CPI Inflation Falls to 4%- Flashes Deflation Warning to Commodity Bulls Towards 2008 End / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Inflation came in flat for February, confounding consensus forecasts that called for a rise of 0.2%. Annualised CPI falls to 4% from 4.3% and is inline with my overall expectations as highlighted in the extensive article of 2nd March 08 - Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! Which concluded that deflationary forces would take hold towards the end of 2008 as illustrated by the graph below -Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 14, 2008
Asian Emerging Economies Are Still Booming! / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: It's 3:30 AM here in Bangkok as I write this edition of Money and Markets . Across the street from my apartment, four towers are rising toward the sky. A 52-story luxury condo development is under construction with crews working 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
It's hard to believe that the crane operators, now perched over the 22nd floor, can see what they are doing as they hoist up tons of rebar, bins full of cement, rolls of steel sheathing and stacks of glass.
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Friday, March 14, 2008
UK Trade Goods Data 2007- Exports Fell by 10%, Imports Rose by 2% / Economics / UK Economy
By: HMRC
UK Regional Trade in Goods estimates are released today, for the fourth quarter of 2007 .
• Total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 was £218,919m.
• The total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 fell by £24,902m (10 per cent) compared to the 12 months ending December 2006.
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Thursday, March 13, 2008
Patchy Nature of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Michael_Pento
The strange thing about myths is that while some have their basis in truth, for the most part they suffer from a dearth of reality. The same is true about today's well promulgated credit crisis. First let me admit, there clearly is a crisis in certain areas of the credit markets. For instance, there is definitive evidence of duress for hedge funds that hold Credit Default Obligations, especially in leveraged portfolios. A crunch also exists for mortgage lending companies that must issue asset-backed commercial paper. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Japanese Economic Hard Landing Forecast for 2008 / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
While investment powerhouses like UBS barely lowered their 2008 growth forecast for Japan in late January down to 1.2%, their forecast is likely to prove overly optimistic. Even in late January, Morgan Stanley's respective forecast is 1.1%. IMF's forecast is 1.5%. So far, only Goldman Sacs has suggested that there is a probability that the Japanese economy may have slipped into a recession at the beginning of 2008. I believe that the Japanese economy will surprise on the downside with a recession during 2008 that may likely extend into 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Bad Economics Caused Our Economies Current Account Problems / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
The current account deficit, rising prices and our deteriorating foreign debt situation has caused the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate from 7 per cent to 7.25 per cent. Bank assets are a useful guide to monetary policy. These fell by 36.25 per cent from May 2007 to January 2008. These figures suggest that the RBA means business and will continue to raise rates until it brings spending under 'control'. Unfortunately this cannot be done without bringing the economy to a grinding halt. So how did we arrive to this situation?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Can Supply-side Economics Save the US Economy from the Boom Bust Cycle? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Current trends in the US economy are worrying a lot of people -- and so they should. Unfortunately worrying never solved any problems, only action can do that. But in order to solve a problem once must first identify it. Remember that economic trends are the product of deeper forces. For instance, a continual rise in productivity year after year is the fruit of capital accumulation increasing faster than the population. On the other hand, the so-called boom-bust cycle is the result of bad economics. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 09, 2008
The US Economies Path to Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
In March of 2007, I predicted America would have a recession before the end of 2008. (see Warning: Recession Ahead at http://www.theculturaleconomist blog.blogspot.com/ . At that point in time, my thoughts were greeted with a certain amount of – shall we say – skepticism. Well. Here we are one year later. It would appear the number of skeptics has decreased.Read full article... Read full article...