Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Sentiment Deteriorates Amidst Global Stock Market Crash Warnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Sentiment deteriorated further during the past week as oil prices rebounded, more bad news in the financial sector surfaced, economic woes mounted and inflationary pressures intensified, compounding already-jittery investors' anxiety.
Status Quo's lyrics “Down down deeper and down” came to mind as global stock markets took a battering. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, for example, plunged by 3.8% over the week to below 12,000 – its lowest level since March. Commensurate with extreme bearishness, short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped to an all-time high during the week.
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Sunday, June 22, 2008
Why Emerging Markets Are So Volatile / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Richard_Shaw
We are sometimes asked why emerging markets are so much more volatile than developed markets. The answer is that, due to their relative size , money flows between them cause most of the volatility effect.
Consider a real world situation that most of us have seen — a stream emptying in to a pond and another stream at the the other end of the pond draining the overflow.
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Sunday, June 22, 2008
RBS Predicts Worldwide Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: William_Patalon_III
As rocky as the global markets have been, the worst is yet to come, the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (ADR: RBS ) warns.
RBS analysts have warned clients to brace for a full-blown crash in the global stock-and-bond markets over the next three months as the conflicting realities of slowing growth and rising inflation paralyze the world's major central banks - causing “all the chickens [to] come home to roost,” Great Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper reported.
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Saturday, June 21, 2008
Stock Market Oversold, Major Low Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is oversold and there is reason to think we are at or very near the low for this downward move.
Short Term
Every one of the issues in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is below its 50 day EMA, a relatively rare event that has occurred near bottoms.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Oracle of Omaha Bets S&P 500 Stock Market Index Will Outperform Hedge Funds / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
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Warren Makes a Bet - It's All About Values
- Hedging Your Bet
- Mean Reversion of National Wealth
The Sage of Omaha made a bet that was written up in a recent Fortune magazine article. Basically, Warren Buffett bet that the S&P 500 would outperform a group of funds of hedge funds over the next ten years. A million dollars to someone's favorite charity is on the line. This week we will analyze the bet, using it as a springboard to learn about valuation and value investing. As we will see, there are times that making a bet on the S&P 500 to outperform hedge funds (or bonds or real estate or whatever asset class) makes sense and times when it doesn't.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Global Stock Market Crash Warning and Loss of American Financial Privacy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Washington, DC - Hidden deep in Senator Christopher Dodd's 630-page Senate housing legislation is a sweeping provision that affects the privacy and operation of nearly all of America 's small businesses. The provision, which was added by the bill's managers without debate this week, would require the nation's payment systems to track, aggregate, and report information on nearly every electronic transaction to the federal government. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Economic and Geopolitical Dangers for 2008 and 2009 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Laird
Over the years, I have used gold market behavior to track economic and political trends. The overall effect was a good take on gold markets and on currencies, which was the intent from the beginning.
We have some rather ominous conclusions about the Summer and Fall of 2008. They are economic as well as geopolitical. The actual gold focus becomes more of a point of reference, as it reacts to events that seem to be readying to occur. In addition, we foresee some rather scary trends for the entire world, going into 09. We are not going to cover all of this in this article, but to give a basic overview.
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
Recovery Rally for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The near-term technical set-up for the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) argues in favor of an approaching recovery rally into the 135.50-136.00 area in the upcoming hours -- once the current low is established, either at 133.50 or somewhere lower. For the time being, though, I am willing to risk only 132.80 to participate in the preferred scenario.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Financial Market Forecasts for US Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar until noon Wednesday, June 25. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Global Stock Market PE Ratio's and Growth Potential- June 08 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last six months have been a turbulent time for most global stock markets. Gross overvaluation that saw the chinese stock market trading on a price earnings of more than 50 has been swiftly followed by a severe bear market that has wiped more than 50% of the stock market. At the time I warned that China is primed for a crash whilst many grasped at Nasdaq dot com bubble straws suggesting that China could run to a PE of 100 as Nasdaq had once done, it never happened. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
US Stock Markets Weakening Earnings Growth Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble … to give way to hope, fear and greed,” said Benjamin Graham (co-author with David Dodd of Security Analysis, 1934 – considered by many to be the bible of value investing). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
BIS Warns of Great Depression and Royal Bank Of Scotland Issues Stock Market Crash Alert / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold UpdateGold closed at $8 8 4 .20 in New York yesterday and was up $ 1.0 0 and silver closed at $1 7. 05, down 19 cents. Since then gold has again traded in a range between $880 and $890 in Asia n and in early European trading this morning .
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Wednesday, June 18, 2008
New Upleg for UltraShort China Stocks ETF / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares ETF (AMEX: FXP) appears to have established a near-term pullback low this morning at 76.06, and has pivoted into a new upleg that should continue the May-June advance towards a retest of the June high at 84.00. If 84.00 is hurdled and sustained, it just might unleash a very powerful follow-through that points considerably higher, into the 93.50 area, on the way to 100.00.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Forecasts for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the US Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have announced a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar from noon Wednesday, June 18 to noon Wednesday, June 25. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
The Real Role of Financial Market Regulators / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
By: Brady_Willett
Having watched the Financial Accounting Standard Board ( FASB ) grapple with the unexpensed stock options problem for more than 3-decades, and still forced to watch the consulting-crazed SEC settle case after case without forcing the wrongdoers to admit culpability, a strange sense of satisfaction arrived last week when the Financial Services Authority (FSA) attacked short sellers. To recap, the FSA said that since short sellers may be ganging up on companies undertaking rights issues the shorts will need to start disclosing their positions in a week. Not in a few month or years after the financial service lobby has severely watered down the original rule. Rather, if you short more than 0.25% during the rights issue process you will disclose your position starting June 20. Period.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Financial Market Bubbles- From Euphoria to Credit Collapse Revulsion / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
What does a bubble look like and how do they end? In this week's Outside the Box, James Montier of Societe Generale in London looks at not only the psychological analysis, but also at the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual. He includes a fascinating piece from Marc Faber documenting the various quotes about how well the economy was doing from 1928-32. This makes for fun, if a little sobering, reading.
To quote from his summary: "We have seen the heads of virtually all financial institutions stand up over the last few months and claim the worst is behind us. Why would anyone listen to these people? They didn't see the disaster coming, and yet somehow they are qualified to tell us it is all alright! Perhaps I am just unduly sceptical, but this reeks of a conspiracy of optimism. The recession has barely started, let alone reached its nadir. The market moves of late have all the hallmarks of a classic sucker's rally. This isn't discounting the recovery, this is denial! Far from being behind us, the worst may well still be ahead!"
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Global Stock Markets Low Expected Towards End of June / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
On April 29, I wrote a research report called "Loaming low in June for equity markets. It is time for increased caution". This article was about the expected major market trough that develops approximately every five to six months. Now that June has arrived, what has happened to the markets? After a weak rise in the first half of May, global stock markets began selling off sharply in the second half of the month. With downward pressure continuing into early June, world financial markets have dropped approximately 7% since mid-May. And with the technical low anticipated by late June, lower numbers can be expected over the next two weeks. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Emerging Markets Mega Trend Investing / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The western economies led by the United States are teetering on the brink of recession, which is expected to be followed by a prolonged period of slow growth if not something worse namely stagflation.
Meanwhile the emerging economies continue to consolidate their strong growth rates, buoyed by huge trade surpluses from strong exports of consumer goods and raw commodities enabling governments to embark on huge infrastructure building projects. These economies are increasingly feeding their domestic construction and consumption booms as the developing world continues to make the mega shift to the developed world.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
Stock Market Dow Theory Non-confirmation Confusion Signals CAUTION / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
Since July 2007 we have had an upside Dow theory non-confirmation, followed by a bearish primary trend change that was followed by a downside non-confirmation out of the January/March secondary lows. This was all then followed by a rally into the most recent secondary high points that carried the Transports to a new closing high on June 5, 2008 while the Industrials have lagged. As a result, another upside non-confirmation has been form. This can all be seen in the Dow theory chart below. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 16, 2008
Stock Markets Heading for Test of March Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
So far, the market has followed the decennial pattern in an election year. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in the Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17 at 1257. After a tentative uptrend to 1440, the index is now is in the process of testing its March low and expanding its base.
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