Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Investor Alert: Is the Trump Agenda in Peril? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Is the Trump agenda in peril? It’s a question investors should consider ahead of the mid-term elections.

Up to now, the Trump economic agenda has certainly been great for Wall Street and much of the broader economy. The Dow Jones Industrials continues to defy all naysayers – notching yet another new record high in the first week of October before correcting.

Meanwhile, the latest GDP numbers show the economy growing at its fastest pace in over a decade, with official unemployment at generational lows.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Stock Market is Making a Sharp Rally After a Sharp Drop. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Today’s big bounce has some people comparing the current market environment to October 2014, when the stock market dropped quickly and surged back to new all-time highs quickly.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

US Stocks Mount Impressive Early Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As fast as the downside breakout occurred, the upside recovery appears to be taking place as Q3 Earnings begin to hit the news wires.  This past weekend, the news cycles and market experts all seemed to have opinions about where the US equities market was headed after last week’s price collapse.  We’ve read everything from warnings of a $20 trillion dollar collapse to seeing Bloomberg’s SMART INDEX chart showing equity valuations are near historic market bottoms.  It seems everyone wanted to get out and share their opinions – I guess we are no different.

The facts still remain the same, until the global market dynamics change and the US equities markets break the defined price channels that have been well established, we do not see any reason to consider a 6~8% correction life-threatening.  In the total scope of the price range, this move represents less than a 25% price correction from price rotation points (as you’ll see on the longer term NQ chart below).  Yes, eventually, some critical market event might cause the US equity markets to change direction, but until then stay safe and roll in and out of trades with skill.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the stock market volatility of the last week and what it may mean for precious metals.

When asked about the dominant theme for the markets last January, I said that the one thing I looked forward to was a return of "VOLATILITY" as the Federal Reserve Board moved to "normalize" the interest rate structure, now commonly referred to as quantitative tightening. What has actually transpired since then was a brief volatility spike in February during which the UVXY tripled in ten days but other than that, markets screamed higher, hitting new high after new high with annoying complacency and irritating certainty while "VOL" collapsed.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: C_Pissouros

Darius Anucauskas writes: It looks like a busy week, as there is a lot of economic data that is ready to hit the spotlight, together with the political news that are taking centre stage. Brexit negotiations are also in focus, together with the ongoing discussions around Italy’s deficit.

On Monday, the calendar is relatively quiet, apart from US retail sales figures that are set to come out before the US opening bell. The expectations here are that the figures for the core and headline could have increased. The headline number is expected to come out at +0.7%, which is well above the previous +0.1%. The core figure, which excludes automobiles, is forecasted to come out one tenth of percent higher, at +0.4%, against the previous month’s +0.3%. Certainly, better sales figures could have a positive effect on the US dollar, but we doubt that the greenback will show any strong reaction after numbers come out.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Is this the Start of a Bear Market for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Is this the start of a bear market for stocks? That’s probably what you’re wondering right now, with the S&P 500 sitting right ontop of its 200 daily moving average.

Here’s our long term, medium term, and short term outlook for the U.S. stock market. We focus on the long term and medium term. As U.S. stock market investors and traders, our job is to separate the signal from the noise.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Federal Reserve And The Markets / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

Analysis and opinions of the financial markets vary depending on who is doing the analyzing. The most critical element that affects the song is the singer.

There is nothing wrong with that. But we should be aware that our own prejudice  clouds our perspective. However, there is more that is not so obvious. With that in mind, lets take a look at things.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Keep A Proper Perspective About Stock Market Recent Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There has been quite a bit of information and opinion in the news recently regarding the recent downside price action in the US Equities markets.  We’ve seen everything from “The sky is falling” to “The markets will rally into the end of the year”.  If you’ve been following our research and analysis, you already know what we believe will be the likely outcome and if not – keep reading.

There are a number of key components of the global economy that are of interest currently; US Treasuries, Precious Metals, Emerging Markets, the European Union, Trade Issues and Capital Shifts.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Is the Stocks Bull Dead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Has the bear market started? 

Intermediate trend –  The correction has turned into a short-term debacle which may not be over.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Stock Market Bottoms are a Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

What a roller coaster day on Friday for the U.S. stock market. The S&P went up and down near its 200 day moving average, closing right on top of this line.

Friday, October 12, 2018

Stock Market Crash: Time to Buy Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

In yesterday’s market study I said that the U.S. stock market would probably fall a little more. Upon further analysis, I said that the S&P would probably fall below its 200 dma to at least 2729.

Lucky call or not, that’s exactly what the S&P did today.

Friday, October 12, 2018

Has The Stocks Bear Market Begun? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

It seems the pundits have lost their way. The reasons for the market moves have now confounded most market participants and pundits to such an extent, and they are stretching so far to provide a reason for a market move, that we have moved from the ridiculous to the sublime.

In the last several years I have outlined how the market has completely ignored the dozens of negative geopolitical events that were supposed to have adversely affected our market as it has continued to rally towards our long-term targets.

Friday, October 12, 2018

US Transportation Index Suggests Stock Market Bottom May Be Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, is alerting our members that the Transportation Index has reached its first level of support near 10,500 and this level may be the start of an extended bottoming formation.  If you have been following our research posts, you already know that we predicted this recent downside price swing over 3 weeks ago with our Adaptive Learning Predictive Modeling systems.  You will also understand that our modeling systems suggest this move may not end till early November (somewhere between November 8~12).  Keeping this in mind, we are now alerting you to be prepared for the following.

Friday, October 12, 2018

Stock Market Storm Crash, Dow Plunges to Trend Forecast! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's my latest analysis update to my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 :

Thursday, October 11, 2018

SP500 Stock Market Sell Off Well Forecast by President Trump / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: readtheticker

TRUMP said 'we may have to take a hit!. No kidding, with stocks at extreme all time highs, add on the trade wars and you are surely to upset the worlds demand engine (i.e China). Of course you can not change anything with out breaking a few conventions, therefore investors can not be blind to changes in asset prices as president Trump made his intentions very clear. An investor must understand how the markets work, we know algo's work the intra-day market to the upside and after the SP500 95 pt sell off today it looks like they work to the down side. Plus Mr Market wants to find out the level of Powell 'fed put' is. Is it like Mrs Yellen at -10% ? Or is much lower. The things we are about to learn! Maybe the SP500 sell off is the Democrats move against the US president, as he has owned the 2018 rally? If it is President Trump warned all investors on June 4th 2018

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Just How Bearish is the Stock Market’s Breadth? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Mainstream financial media is tripping all over itself about “the stock market’s terrible breadth and why the stock market will crash”. Because hey, bad news sells like hot cakes.

*A lot of traders have an obsession with breadth. The reality is simple: with dozens of breadth indicators, there will always be one that screams bearish.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Transportation Breakdown Hinting to Global Economic Weakness? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team highlighted the recent breakdown in the Transportation Index ($TRAN) as a very strong sign that the global economy and US economy may be starting to show early signs of weakness.

The Transportation Index typically leads the markets by about 3 to 6 months (on average).  When we see a big breakdown in the Transportation index, as we’ve seen recently, it immediately raises red flags that one or more component of the global markets may be crashing.  At this point in the Seasonal Cycle, one could expect the Transportation Index to rotate lower a bit.  Our concern is that global economic factors may be driving China and other markets into much deeper corrections – which could cause the US and other world markets to correct a bit further.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Presidential Cycle 3rd Year (after midterm election) VERY Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The third year of the presidential cycle is the year after the midterm elections (i.e. November 2018).

Historically, this is extremely bullish for the U.S. stock market.

Here’s what the stock market does next after midterm elections.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Interest Rate Shock-Time to Find Out Who has been Swimming Naked / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

What Happened?  

Could everything have changed in a 24 hour period?  Apparently, Yes,   Over the span of 24 hours markets woke up and realized that the FED may be at the cusp of committing Policy Error.  Recently bonds have been teetering on the edge and this week Jerome Powell gave bonds a push off the ledge.  Bonds delivered a message and the stock market was listening.  Stocks got derailed along with bonds.

Yields blew out and sucked the air out of the stock market.  So why the big move in bonds?  Two reasons:

1. Less demand for LT bonds due to the higher cost of hedging caused by higher yields, higher USD and emerging markets dropping.
2. FED Chair Powell advertising he plans on being very aggressive with rates.  He plans on raising rates until something breaks.

Monday, October 08, 2018

Stock Market Seasonal Influence at Work / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend –  Correction in progress.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.