Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 07, 2018
Stock Market Breaking Down After Long Uptrend. More short-term Weakness Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Perspective is important. After a very steady rally over the past 3 months, the U.S. stock market is finally starting to “break down”. But before you panic, realize that this “break down” is very small in the grand scheme of themes. Some traders are looking for a retest of the 200 day moving average.
Sunday, October 07, 2018
Looking at the “New NAFTA” Trade Agreement / Stock-Markets / Global Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
Well, this is getting exciting!We just got an agreement this morning with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA, which has driven the markets higher.
I thought the Trump-induced trade war with China would have resolved by now as well. At the beginning of the summer I forecast that the president would talk big, beat on a couple of trade partners with some tariffs, then quickly reach a negotiated truce and claim victory.
It hasn’t turned out that way.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Return of Stock Market Volatility: More Short term Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you would recall, I said in late-September that the stock market’s volatility would probably spike in October. Volatility was extremely compressed, which set the stage for an expansion in vol.
Yesterday, the stock market went down and volatility spiked a little.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a long while since the last Amigos update because frankly if the characters, images and shticks I invent to portray market status begin to wear on me sometimes I have to believe they may do the same to you. Consider that the 3 Amigos, SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields and the Yield Curve are slow movers that we usually view from monthly chart perspectives and well, sometimes you need to take a break and just let them do their thing over time.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Stock Market’s Breadth is Weak: Stocks Will Crash! Just Kidding / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
We’ve done 2 kinds of stock market studies recently.
- The U.S. stock market’s own price action.
- The U.S. stock market’s breadth.
Market studies related to the stock market’s own price action have mostly been bullish.
Market studies related to the stock market’s breadth have been mixed. Some are bullish, while others are very bearish.
So what gives? Why are some breadth studies so bearish? (e.g. Hindenburg Omen)
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Divergence Between Stock Market Indexes: What’s next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Small cap stocks have significantly underperformed large cap stocks recently.
Yesterday, I demonstrated that this divergence tells you that the bull market’s top is probably 1 year away.
However, this divergence typically means that the bull market’s rally still has some room left (e.g. approximately 6-12 months). As we all know, the stock market can go up a lot during the final 6-12 months of its bull market.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
How Much Longer Can the Stock Market Hold Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
More and more “bells are ringing” for this market rally.
The microcap index, called the Russell 2000, typically leads the overall market in risk on/ risk off moves. With that in mind, what does the below chart suggest?
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Quantitative Tightening Killing The Stock Market Is 'Fake News' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, I read an article which stated that quantitative tightening is the “death knell” to the stock market. Can this be true?
So, allow me to show you why this is just another market fallacy which has been propagated by market analysts and the general media, and then regurgitated from one investor to another until it has risen to the point of “fact.” However, at the end of the day, this too is simply “fake news.”
While I am sure it would seem “logical” to most people that if the Fed takes money out of the system that the stock market would certainly drop. This premise is based upon the common belief that the cause of the market rally was the Fed’s quantitative easing process. So, if you remove the cause of the rally, then obviously the rally will reverse.
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Wednesday, October 03, 2018
Your invitation to Guy Cohen’s Hidden Money Masterclass / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, October 02, 2018
RUT vs. Dow: Stock Market Today is Just Like 1999? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market has made a breadth divergence recently. We examined the S&P 500’s breadth divergence yesterday. While this isn’t necessarily bearish, there are a cluster of signals in 2007 (near the previous bull market’s top).
We are seeing more and more of a breadth divergence.
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Tuesday, October 02, 2018
Expect Stock Market Q3 Earnings Price Surprises / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our focus is on developing and deploying very specialized price modeling and predictive analysis systems. Our objective is to inform our members of these potential price moves and to assist them in finding successful trading opportunities. We are alerting all of our followers of a potential move today, because we believe this move could frighten some investors as we expect price rotation as Q3 earnings data is released just before the November 2018 mid-term elections.
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Tuesday, October 02, 2018
Dow Stock Market Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – price traded higher as outlined, however, the expectation of a secondary high was wrong. On the plus side, this move to record highs has provided clarity going forward and the expectation of a significant decline remains unchanged.
Tuesday, October 02, 2018
The ETNA Broker Back Office / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The Broker Back Office is essentially a web-based platform that brokers, dealers and designed to help automate the business processes that involve client interfacing, compliance reporting, and account custodian to regulatory requirements. The Broker Back Office essentially offers the broker-dealers more control over the regulatory authority and ease operations of the online brokerage and investment firms.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 01, 2018
Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were virtually flat on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following the recent record-breaking rally. The S&P 500 index remains close to its September the 21st record high, but will it resume its uptrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors sentiment remained basically unchanged following some economic data announcements along with the third quarter's ending. The S&P 500 index has reached the new record high of 2,940.91 more than a week ago on September the 21st. It currently trades 0.9% below that high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.05% on Friday.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Predicting Markets is Like Forecasting the Weather / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last week, my forecast was for a dollar rally, (which we are in the midst of) a drop in the mining indexes into around Oct 4/8 (going down since Tuesday) and a top on Sept 21 on the SPX and down into around Oct 8th.The lack of any real selling on the stock market since the Sept 21st top leads me to believe the bottom is going to be further out than I thought. Now my forecast is for a bottom around Oct 17th (based on the 4 year cycle Oct ’14). I still think we hold to a 5-6% decline on the S&P 500 (SPX 2792).
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Stock Market On the Cusp / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Breaking to a new high has only delayed the anticipated correction into mid-October.
Last week’s action suggests that it may have already started.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 30, 2018
Will Stocks Keep Their Upward Momentum in October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX closed beneath Short-term resistance at 12.60, leaving it on a sell signal for a third week in a row. It appears to be in a holding pattern for the end of the quarter. However, the Cycles Model shows a likely surge in strength for the VIX through late October.
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Friday, September 28, 2018
Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Fact: The direction of interest rates does not determine the stock market's trend
Investing is hard. You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis, listen to talk shows and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what's next.
One popular stock market "indicator" is interest rates. Analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates means lower stocks.
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Friday, September 28, 2018
Fed Quantitative Tightening is Stock Bull’s Death Knell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative-tightening campaign is finally ramping to its full-steam speed in Q4. That will destroy $50b per month of quantitative-easing money created out of thin air! QT will need to maintain this terminal pace for over two years to meaningfully unwind the Fed’s grotesquely-bloated balance sheet. This record tightening poses a dire threat to today’s QE-inflated overvalued stock markets.
This week traders are focused on the Fed’s 8th rate hike of this cycle, which was universally expected. Ever since the FOMC’s previous meeting in early August, federal-funds futures have implied odds of another hike way up at 91% to 100% at this latest meeting. But the Fed’s ongoing hiking pales in comparison with what it’s doing with its balance sheet. One year after its birth, quantitative tightening is hitting full speed.
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Friday, September 28, 2018
The Russell 2000’s “inside month”. Ready for a Stock Market Christmas Present? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Russell 2000 (small caps index) is on the verge of making a DOWN “inside month”. A DOWN “inside month” is when:
- The market goes down this month, AND…
- This month’s HIGH is below last month’s HIGH, while this months LOW is above last month’s LOW.