Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Inflation Hiding In Plain Sight, The Key To Profits / Economics / Inflation
By: Bob_Clark
As an Account Manager and Trading Instructor, there is a theme I see that keeps recurring. I hear this from my clients and students over and over, "things are so bad how can I be safe buying". I hear "we are going to have hyper inflation" or "it is all going to collapse into a deflationary abyss. In other words, they lose their bearings in a sea of information. My answer is always the same, we must trust our algorithmic models. Markets will fluctuate, what you read or listen to is illusion. When one group has all the money, the rules of the game have changed. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 22, 2010
Not So Fast for U.S. Economy, Inflation and therefore Fed Tightening / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Not so fast for the economy, for inflation and, therefore, for Fed tightening. The Commerce Department's first guess at Q4:2009 real GDP growth of 5.7% is likely to be the fastest quarterly annualized growth we see for some time. Rather, sequential annualized growth rates over the first three quarters of this year are going to be on the order of less than one-half that of the last year's fourth quarter. Although one month does not a trend make, consumer inflation in January already shows signs of abating a bit.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Government Stimulus, One Year Later / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Last week marked the one year anniversary of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, or the stimulus bill, passing into law. While the debate over its success has been focused on whether or not it is stimulating the economy and on various questionable uses of funds, in my estimation this legislation is accomplishing exactly what it was intended to accomplish - grow the government.
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Sunday, February 21, 2010
U.S. 1800 Bank Failures Financial Tsunami on Horizon / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Fresbee
CalculatedRisk predicts 2010 to account for more number of failures than 2009 but lesser than the peak of 534 in 1989.
Read full article... Read full article...My prediction is the FDIC will close more banks in 2010 than in 2009 (more than 140), but fewer banks than in 1989 – peak of the S&L crisis (534 banks).
Sunday, February 21, 2010
UK and Eurozone Economic Recovery Over, Bundesbank Fears Second Wave of Credit Crisis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Recent data shows the economic slump in the UK and Eurozone is accelerating to the downside at a rapid pace. Let's review a few articles supporting that view.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
U.S. GDP and Outbound Tourism Disconnect / Economics / Sector Analysis
By: Andrew_Butter
One of the first things you do when you are looking at a strategy for a new tourism destination or to re-vamp an old one is to look at your demand profile.
Putting aside the detailed explanatory variables big picture your baseline can normally be defined by the nominal GDP of source countries. So if you know where those are going you can have a peek at the future.
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Sunday, February 21, 2010
Government Stopping the Cleansing Action of Capitalism By Propping Up Malinvestments / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Douglas_French
The business end of the business cycle does the dirty work of clearing away the malinvestments made during the previous boom. These malinvestments are a stark reminder of what was hot and now is not.
Cheap and abundant money flowed into real-estate projects after the tech bubble burst and the Fed hit the monetary gas. Sand states like Arizona, California, and Florida, as well as the hub of the Southeast, Atlanta, attracted homebuilders large and small.
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Saturday, February 20, 2010
Pain in Spain, Greece Tip of EuroZone Debt Crisis Demands Cash From Germany / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Germany, Greece, and Spain
Two Views on the Euro
The Pain in Spain
How Much Is Too Much
Last week we talked about Greece. But the problems are more than just Greece. We look at two very different views of the euro, and then opposing thoughts on Spain. Is Spain a problem or not? And how can the US keep on spending? Is there a limit? There is a lot to cover in what has been an interesting, if confusing, week.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Goodbye Reflation We hardly Knew Ya; Core CPI Drops First Time Since 1982 / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday, inflationists were out in full force after the Producer Price Index (PPI) release.
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Friday, February 19, 2010
Economic Crisis, The Sovereign Debt Bubble / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
When the next census is over America will probably have 320 million people. The number of Americans 50 years ago was about 184 million. Our budget then was about $100 billion. Today it is supposed to be $3.8 trillion. We call that spending gone wild. Government control of the economy has become bigger and all consuming at what will prove to be an unsustainable pace. Markets are telling us the world has serious sovereign debt problems as witnessed recently with the financial debacles in Ireland and now Greece with others to follow. Arrogant government, Fed officials and Wall Street telling us the borrowings are necessary to save our economy, when in fact just the opposite will prove to be true.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Note to Fareed Zakaria: Tax Rates Affect Behavior / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Michael_Pento
Fareed Zakaria is not a fiscal conservative by any means. His left leaning bias towards relying on tax increases to fix our deficits, instead of spending cuts, makes that abundantly clear. On his “What in the World” segment on Sunday’s GPS program, Mr. Zakaria excoriated former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan for not asserting that they want taxes to increase in order to balance the budget--Zakaria’s comment was prompted from an interview those gentlemen conducted the prior week with David Gregory from Meet the Press.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Robert Prechter Warns of Many Signs Of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Bob Prechter Points Out The Many Signs Of Deflation Yes, You Heard Us Right
By Nico Isaac
Everywhere you look, the mainstream financial experts are pinning on their "WIN 2" buttons in a show of solidarity against what they see as the number one threat to the U.S. economy: Whip Inflation Now.
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Thursday, February 18, 2010
Keynesian Economics, A Halfwit’s Guide to Monetary Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: Information Clearing House Newsletter had the quote, “Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” by Andre Gide, which is generally true about most things, except in the case of economics, because the only true economic theory has already been found, and it is the Austrian school of economics, also known as the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), and I have nothing but contempt for anyone who says differently, especially since it can be found every day, for free, at mises.org, and so to believe anything else is just a matter of stupidity and/or willful ignorance.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
World Governments Papering Over Gaping Financial Chasms By Printing Money / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Browne
At a time when more and more offices are going paperless, governments in most of the developed world are doing the opposite. Finance ministers from Washington to London, Tokyo, Madrid, and, most pointedly, Athens, are attempting to paper over gaping financial chasms in the global economy by issuing ever greater quantities of currency and debt. But paper can only stretch so far.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
How the Bailed out Banks Are Crushing U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: When U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled the $787 billion "stimulus" bill of extra spending and modest tax cuts last year, it became clear that the U.S. budget deficit was going to eclipse the 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) level for at least one year (and, as we now know, probably three years).
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Krugman Says Inflation Is The Answer / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are considering The Case For Higher Inflation by Paul Krugman.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Japan Economy GDP Growth Recovery, Too early to celebrate? / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Fresbee
High growth at 1.1% QoQ (4.6% saar) in 4Q 2009 The Japanese economy grew 1.1% QoQ after seasonal adjustment (or 4.6% saar) in 4Q (Oct-Dec) 2009, higher than DB forecast (0.7%; 2.8%). The noteworthy development is that private consumption registered the third consecutive quarterly increase (0.7% QoQ) thanks to fiscal stimulus on the purchase of consumer durables and that private capital investment recovered for the first time in seven quarters (1.0% QoQ).
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
India Worries as China Builds Ports in South Asia / Economics / China Economy
By: Trader_Mark
Continued signs of stress among the 2 developing Asian powers. Not the first sign that China's new heavyweight status is causing consternation. [Dec 15, 2009: China's Economic Power Unsettles Neighbors] [Jun 13, 2009: Australia in Perfect Position Aside China, but at a Cost?] China appears to be following the same strategy in South Asia that it has taken in Africa ....
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Goldman Sachs Says China Currency and Economy Trouble Brewing / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
With a lot of eyes focused on the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), especially Greece and Spain, please don't forget about China. Goldman’s O’Neill Says ‘Something Brewing’ in China on Currency.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
UK Inflation Smashes Through 3%, Hits 3.5%, Bank of England Says Don't Panic! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The inflation mega-trend continues to forcefully manifest itself in the continuing surge higher of UK Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which soared from 2.9% to 3.5% for January data. Inflation has virtually doubled in a little over 2 months rising from 1.9% for November data to now stand at 3.5%, the surge in inflation has caught the whole mainstream media and academic economists by surprise that barely 2 months ago were still contemplating deflation. The RPI continued its spike higher rising to 3.7% from 2.4% the month before, and the real UK inflation rate as measured by the Market Oracle rose from 2.7% to now stand at 4.3%.