Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 15, 2019
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
Over the last 10 years, the yields on the benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury bond have foretold the path of the S&P 500.
Money flow trends between the bond market and the equity market, over the past decade, have given investors a heads-up on the trading direction of the S&P 500.
The swings toward fixed income (2011 to mid-2012, 2014 to mid-2016, Q4 2018 to mid-2019) have produced higher bond prices and lower yields as money managers balance safety and risk.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years. We believe US stocks, after recently breaching key psychological price levels ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant price pattern formation headed into a key price breakdown near the middle of August 2019.
Our cycle indicator tools and predictive modeling suggests that August 19, 2019, is the date to watch out for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets may begin a new downward price phase that could lead to a dramatic price decline. Read our August 19 Top warning here
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August/September before the intermediate trend becomes more clear.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most market commentators remain confused, flirting between being bearish or bullish usually AFTER the fact, AFTER the market has risen or fallen. Take when I last looked at the Dow and the market was in a downtrend eyeing an assault on Dow 25,000. At the time the reasoning was 'surprise' failure to resolve the US China trade war for why stocks had fallen. All without understanding the underlying mega-trend drivers that remain constant regardless of what Trump announces or tweets or threatens, which are the trends towards war with China, Climate Change, the Inflation mega-trend (money printing), AI mega-trend and Africa's population explosion amongst others that come to mind. All of which were in motion BEFORE Trump came to office and will remain so for decades after Trump leaves office.
Sunday, July 14, 2019
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our cycle and predictive modeling solutions have been suggesting that Mid-August 2019 will likely prompt a major inflection point in the US stock markets and we have been attempting to warn our followers about this for months. Our continued efforts to identify this big breakdown price move in term of timing and expected range have led us to believe the outcome could be at least a -10% to -13% downside price collapse – possibly larger.
Post 1: NEXT BULL AND BEAR MARKETS ARE NOW SET UP
Post 2: TECHNICALS SHOWS AUG/SEPT MARKET TOP PATTERN SHOULD FORM
Our research team now believes that August 19 ( 5 days) will likely be the critical price inflection point/price apex that we have been searching for. Our cycle and other predictive modeling tools are suggesting that this date will become critical for the markets future price trends and current support/resistance levels. We believe that some type of new event or price event will take place sometime between August 14 and August 19 and that this event will lead to a new bearish price trend setup to break current support levels as well as begin a downside price move that should attempt a minim of -10% to -13% before attempting to find support.
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Saturday, July 13, 2019
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
Achieving and maintaining success as a stock market investor is a tall order.
You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what's next for the stock market.
One popular stock market "indicator" is interest rates. Mainstream analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates mean higher stock prices, while rising rates mean lower stock prices.
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Saturday, July 13, 2019
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
SPX and Dow are in BREAKOUT mode. There are things that are worrying even as markets climb to new highs. The new highs need to be confirmed via volume and market internals. We take a look at some of them.
Our Twitter feed has all the feed news as they release. Follow us on twitter
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress yesterday and effectively communicated that the Fed would lower rates at the end of this month. However with data not yet supportive of a rate cut and inflation starting to rear its head again, capital outflows remain a key risk for the US in case of a rate cut. Sensing the dilema, bond markets have started
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Friday, July 12, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most market commentators remain confused, flirting between being bearish or bullish usually AFTER the fact, AFTER the market has risen or fallen. Take when I last looked at the Dow and the market was in a downtrend eyeing an assault on Dow 25,000. At the time the reasoning was 'surprise' failure to resolve the US China trade war for why stocks had fallen. All without understanding the underlying mega-trend drivers that remain constant regardless of what Trump announces or tweets or threatens, which are the trends towards war with China, Climate Change, the Inflation mega-trend (money printing), AI mega-trend and Africa's population explosion amongst others that come to mind. All of which were in motion BEFORE Trump came to office and will remain so for decades after Trump leaves office.
Friday, July 12, 2019
Stock Investors Buckle Up, the Trade War is About to EXPLODE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
And when it does, smart investors will lock in TRIPLE DIGIT… and possibly even QUADRUPLE DIGIT RETURNS.
Stocks performed a backtest of the broken rising wedge formation (red lines in the chart below) yesterday.
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Thursday, July 11, 2019
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers rely on a number of proprietary tools and cycle forecasting technology. Additionally, we use custom index charts to help measure price cycles, trends, support & resistance and many other aspects of the markets. Recently, we posted an article relating to the US Dollar and foreign currencies using custom index techniques. In the past, we’ve highlighted our Custom Price Cycle index that we use to gauge market sentiment, topping and bottoming setups. All of these tools are essential for our team of researchers while they attempt to identify trade setups and larger market events.
Currently, we are highlighting a number of our custom index chart that suggest a market top may only be 3 to 5 weeks away and the setup of this market top may surprise many traders. We posted a good forecast chart here also.
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Thursday, July 11, 2019
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Even as markets climbed above to 3000 on SPX, we are fairly bearish on equities for the forseeable future. Algo continue to trip the stops higher. The levels to watch are mentioned below on where you could position your stops.
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Wednesday, July 10, 2019
US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Almost counter to current institutional thinking, the strength in the US Dollar will likely continue to push the US stock market higher over the next few weeks/months and act as a supporting price bias in any event of a short term global/us stock market price collapse. Many traders/investors fail to understand the capacity of the US Dollar to wreak havoc on foreign markets as well as to act as a support level for US equities and US investments.
The support level near $96 is currently acting as a solid price floor. Our researchers believe an attempt to breach the $99 level will happen soon and this continued strength will put further pressures on foreign currencies, commodities, metals and trade issues.
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Wednesday, July 10, 2019
Stock Market SPX 3000 Dream is Pushed Away: Pullback of 5-10% is Coming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
US SPX came in touching distance of 3000 mark. However it again backed off and this time went over 20 handles lower. The lack of conviction at the top is suggestive of a major pullback coming. We think US market could pull back by over 5% in next two months.
The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.68% fell 1.4 basis points to 2.030%, after staging its biggest daily climb in around seven months, while the 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, -0.45% slipped by 2.9 basis points to 2.520%. The 2-year note rate TMUBMUSD02Y, -1.26% was up 0.5 basis point to 1.875%, its highest level in around a month. Debt prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
DB Job cut: Tip of iceberg A dark day for Germany’s biggest lender, as Deutsche Bank DB, -6.10% unveiled the biggest restructuring probably of any bank since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crash. The troubled German giant—which once hoped to be Europe’s answer to Wall Street titans like J.P. Morgan or Goldman Sachs—is to reduce head count by 18,000 and call time on a big chunk of its global investment banking ambitions. This earnings season, zero is the number to beat. Expectations couldn’t be much lower, reports Barron’s.
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Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Stock Market and the Global Debt Crisis To Be Reborn 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This final portion of our multiple part research post regarding the future of a crisis-like price revaluation event will focus on two components that we want to highlight for every trader, investor, and reader. It does not matter if you are invested in anything at this point – you need to read this last portion of our research because you need to plan for and prepare for this next event.
On March 31, 2019, we published this research post regarding our cycle analysis predictions and the belief that a major price cycle top would likely form in July 2019.
On June 11, 2019, we updated our research and published this post regarding our belief that current cycle forecasting suggested the top in the market would now be set up for some time in late August or early September 2019.
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Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Stock Market Cycle Top and Fearless Vix Signal Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Everything in the world goes through cycles including investors level of fear, and stock prices. In this report, I want to show you how you can identify short-term and longer-term market tops and bottoms using technical analysis that focuses on the most active time cycles in the stock market today.
Before we get into the details here I would like to touch on two myths that you as a trader need to know in terms of average profit per trade and the number of trades needed to be highly profitable. It’s not what you may think.
Myth #1: You Must Always Be In A Trade and Trading You don’t need to trade every week, or need to always be in a position. This is a huge misconception and something that most traders struggle with grasping. The reality is, the fewer the trades you make less likely you are to lose money. For example, over the past 17 months, I have placed 53 trades which works out to only 3 trades a month, not many. With those 53 trades, our entire portfolio is up 74.9%. Ya, a whopping 75% with only a few simple trades a month and if you calculate what the average percent return is then you get a taste of trading reality, which brings us to the topic 2.
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Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Stock Market Hype and Hope Ends This Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The two biggest catalysts for the stock market rally are over.
Those catalysts were:
1) The hope of a Fed rate cut.
2) The hope of a Trade Deal between China and the US.
Regarding #1, the Fed June meeting resulted in no rate cuts. And last week’s jobs numbers greatly reduce the likelihood of a rate cut hitting in July.
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Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Bullion Banks’ Manipulation Schemes Put Taxpayers at Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver bugs are well aware that JPMorgan Chase dominates precious metals futures trading. Russ and Pam Martens of the financial blog Wall Street on Parade just identified how much control they have.
There are more than 5,300 FDIC insured banks in the U.S. Just two of them, JPMorgan and Citibank, hold 75.7% of all precious metals derivative contracts (primarily futures) in possession of the nation’s banks.
Other major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, are barely even in the game.
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Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Stock Market Preparing for a Backtest / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
By Ricky Wen : The first week of July went according our plan and expectations as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) fulfilled both the 2975 and 3000 targets. Then, later in the week, the market price hit a high of 3006 with a micro double top and made a temporary top, which is resistance going forward. Price action is likely doing some sort of mean reversion/consolidation setup going forward, until the train can ramp again.
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Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Is the Stock Market About to Crash or Soar? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
I’ve noticed an interesting development recently. Traders and investors are mostly split into 2 camps: those who are extremely bullish and think that December 2018 marked a cyclical bottom, and those who are extremely bearish and think that stocks will crash.
I think a middle ground scenario is more likely – this is just a normal rally towards the end of a bull market. A massive breakaway rally that will last years is unlikely, but neither is an imminent crash.
- Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls.
- Technicals (medium term): mostly bullish
- Technicals (short term): mixed
Monday, July 08, 2019
Is the Global Debt Crisis About to be Reborn in 2020? - PART II / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There are some key elements of political and economic Super-Cycles that all traders must stay aware of listed below. But if you have not yet read PART I do so now.
_ Very often, 12+ months before a major US political election cycle, the US stock market typically enters a Bearish trend phase that lasts until 8+ month before the actual election date.
_ The Transportation Index has not recovered to levels from the September 2018 peak. This lower price rotation in the Transportation Index suggests the global economy is not expecting growth in the near future.
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