Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, February 16, 2018

Have You Been Getting Run Over By This Stock Market Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

"Stocks are going down because the economy is too good?"

How many times did you hear something like that quote over the last two weeks on television? And, it was accompanied by the barrage of reports proclaiming the demise of the bull market which began in 2009. But, if you are a thinking person, clearly you had to have been scratching your head.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Stock Market Final Word... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

A final word this afternoon…

It appears that this rally will last between 3:00 and 4:00 today. The reason I say that is because sometime after 3:00 the rally will have taken 30.1 hours or 4.3 days. So, as well as reaching its Fibonacci levels, the 50-day MA and Wave relationships, SPX will have made a half-Cycle of 4.3 days from bottom to top.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TNX futures are in focus this morning as yields creep ever higher. The overnight high was 29.44, and while the 150% Fib level is at 29.66. Since then it has pulled back, but there does not seem to be an end to higher rates, yet. There may possibly be one more probe higher to the top. Possible targets range from 30.18 to 31.36.

As Northman Trader pointed out yesterday, there is a Cup with Handle formation with the Lip at 27.00 that suggests a probable target for Wave 5 near 37.00. However, the Cycles Model suggests a probable retracement to the neckline may occur first.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

S&P 500 index gained 1.3% on Wednesday, following lower opening of the trading session. The market has extended its rally from Friday's low. But will it continue higher today? We can see some short-term overbought conditions. Was this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction before another leg up? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.

The U.S. stock market extended its short-term uptrend on Wednesday. The main indexes gained 1.0-1.9% following lower opening of the trading session. The S&P 500 index broke above its Monday-Tuesday trading range. The broad stock market gauge retraced most of its last week's Wednesday-Friday's sell-off, as it got close to 2,700 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% yesterday.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Stock Market Out on a Limb... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The time expended on the decline to 2638.17 at the close on February 5 was exactly 43 hours. That was the evidence that I had led me to believe that it was the end of Wave (1). The opening gap at 2593.07 on Tuesday February 6 appeared to be a Wave B. That allowed me to believe that Wave (1) had finished. What appeared to be an extra Wave now turns out to be the finish of Wave 3. There are multiple factors going into this re-write of the Elliott Waves. The main one is that the 50% retracement of the entire decline to February 9 is at 2704.99. Today’s high is 2701.86. It appears that an A-B-C rally from the low is complete, as well.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stocks, Bonds on the Edge... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The last couple of days have been testing our patience. The 61.8% retracement of Wave 1 has been surpassed and the SPX futures are making marginally new retracement highs. I feel compelled to say that the cautionary levels for SPX is the 78.6% retracement at 2685.00.

ZeroHedge observes, “As we previewed earlier this week, only one number matters for the markets - both stocks and bonds - this week, and it will be released at 8:30am this morning, when the BLS unveils the January CPI print, dubbed by various trading desks as "the most important CPI print ever", with every trader, both carbon and semiconductor based, focusing only on whether core CPI comes at 0.2% as expected, or higher. If it's the latter, TSY yields will spike - conventional wisdom goes - while the second leg of the equity rout could be unleashed. Inversely, if the core CPI disappoints, we may see a sharp move lower in 10Y yields and the dollar, while stocks prepare to retest all time highs.”

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Is Stock Market “Short Volatility” Blow-Up Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The markets have changed and many are going to get “taken to the cleaners.”

Last year, 2017, was a not a normal year for stocks. Stocks as an asset class are not meant to go straight up without even a 1% pullback. But that is precisely what happened for nearly an entire year.

Now that massive market rig is over. And anyone who continues to invest as though it’s 2017 is going to get annihilated in the coming weeks. The only thing that stop an all out crash in stocks was clear and obvious intervention in the markets by Central Banks.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is “letting the stock market go.”

As I’ve outlined multiple times, if the Fed has to choose between supporting the bond bubble or supporting stocks, it will choose bonds Every. Single. Time.

The fact is that in a debt-saturated world such as the one we live in today, if stocks collapse, investors and Wall Street get angry. If bonds collapse, entire countries go bust.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stock Market is Getting Scary... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Today was a bit of frustration. The SPX wouldn’t go down, but it didn’t go higher, either. Tomorrow appears to be gearing up for a big down day. Wave relationships suggest that possibly both the Head & Shoulders and Broadening Wedge targets may be reached in the next two days. Do the math. That’s approximately a 20% decline from here.

Mike (Mish) Shedlock comments, “Interbank lending took a historic dive. Readers ask "What's happening?" Let's investigate.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Axel_Merk

“Don’t panic, buy the dip, who cares?” or “These are rumblings of an earthquake, people will be hurt like in 1929” - which one is it? I would call it a wake-up call. Let me explain:

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

SPX Futures Are Sliding... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are sliding as the decline begins to take hold again. SPX retraced 71.7% of Wave 1, mainly due to the stop hunt that was done to wipe out the shorts. This constitutes a near 50% retracement of the entire decline. Most Elliotticians are still looking for a 61.8% retracement, as they believe that Wave (1) had concluded on Friday.

The reason w only got a 53.5% retracement on Wave (1) is because virtually no one was short until the 50-day Moving Average was crossed. Thus we see this rebound making the 61.8% retrace, as more traders were willing to go short, but with stops.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Plunger

Volatility has now returned to the stock market after a hibernation of several years. An explosion of volatility normally is indicative of a change of trend. The recent signals transmitted by this market have been classic  and has been telling us that we have entered the final topping process of this extended and stretched economic cycle.  The trading over the past 7 market sessions fit a classic pattern of market panic which corrects  the excesses of a market which just completed an upside climax and had been without correction for close to two years.  I believe this panic is now over and the muscle memory of buy the dip will now reassert itself.  That however does not mean good times will continue as the froth has now been blown off of the bubble.

Anecdotal signs of a market top have been flashing loud and clear now for the past 6 months. Since last summer the public has finally embraced this market and over the last 3 months have been recklessly plunging head long into it. Complacency reigns supreme so that after last Friday’s 666 point drop even the superstitious remained complacent.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Yesterday we shared with you Part I – big picture analysis “math” Behind the recent sell-off. Today, we want to show you the what the math is pointing to in the short term and what to expect next.

For this type of analysis, we are going to use the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system that attempts to tear apart price and technical data from within a chart and reconstruct future price data by learning from the past.  In these examples, we will focus on Weekly and Monthly data going forward about 25 periods.  The intent is to clearly illustrate how our earlier analysis (completed near the end of December 2017) is still aligning with our current analysis.  Amazing how these things all plug together like a big puzzle when you think about it.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

S&P 500 index gained 1.5% on Thursday, as it retraced some of its recent sell-off, following Wednesday's downward reversal. The broad stock market traded the lowest since early October, before bouncing off from around 2,530. Is this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.4-1.5% on Friday following bouncing off new short-term lows, as investors' sentiment improved in the second half of the trading session. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since the early October. It traded 11.8% below its January 26 record high of 2,872.87 (-340.2 points). Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% on Friday.

Monday, February 12, 2018

The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Abalgorithm

The Dow has one of its biggest percentage weekly decline since 2008. The sudden return of volatility across global markets has triggered the biggest stampede out of equity funds on record. Investors yanked a net $30.6 billion out of equity funds in the week through Wednesday, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. That’s the largest weekly net outflow based on data going back to 2004, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of EPFR data. The exodus out of stock funds wasn’t a global phenomenon. Asia benefited from fund flows in the latest week to Feb. 7, even as major indexes there tumbled too. Investors poured a net $4.7 billion into Japanese equity funds alone, the biggest weekly inflow since November 2016, the data show. Investors also sent a net $528.5 million into South Korean stock funds, the largest weekly influx this year.

Monday, February 12, 2018

February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We’ve received many comments and questions from our members over the past few days regarding the recent US market crisis asking what to expect next.  Is this the start of something bigger? Deeper?  What should I do with my open long positions?  What should I do to prepare for anything in the future?  All of these are valid questions.  So, we wanted to help our members and all of our followers by showing what we believe will be the most likely price action going forward a few weeks out.

The recent downside moves in the US majors did freak a lot of people out.  It was something that startled people and pushed a panic button for many.  Certainly, the rotation in the VIX and volatility related ETN’s pushed many people over the edge.  In fact, recent news is that these volatility related ETN’s exasperated the selloff as the VIX shorts were pushed out of positions and into a protectionist mode with the massive spike in volatility.  As the old floor trader saying goes “want to know what causes the markets to crash?  Buyers that turn into sellers to protect from unwanted losses”.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Is the Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
 Intermediate trend –  An intermediate correction from 2872 is currently underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Math Behind Last Weeks Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After surviving one of the biggest market rotations in the last 3+ years, we have been getting quite a bit of request for a detailed analysis of this move and asked what our specialized modeling systems are telling us is likely to happen.  Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has put together this short reference of “the math behind the move” that will show you what is happening and the underlying price mechanics that are going to be driving prices in the future.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

US Stock Market

We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.

Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).

Sunday, February 11, 2018

After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX nearly did a 100% retracement to the August 2015 high as suggested last week.  This week it pulled back to test the Cycle Top support/resistance at 22.31.  It appears to have yet another surge higher in store for it.  The Cycles Model has a triple indicator of a higher Wave (3) top in the next week.   

(ZeroHedge  Less than a month ago, Goldman Sachs presciently published a note research report "VIX ETPs are now net short vega - should we worry".
.... which as the title suggested showed that the net position of VIX ETPs has become short over the past few weeks, for only the second time in their eight year history.