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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

Warning - Deflation Will Take the Most by Surprise / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Google searches offer an insightful glimpse into economic expectations

The last thing on the minds of most people is deflation. It's easy enough to determine that with a quick quiz -- and that quiz is found in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist.

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Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

Free Immigrants, Free Capital, Free Markets / Economics / Economic Theory

By: David_Howden

Early this year, the Saudi Arabian government decided to crack down on foreign workers. Writing for The Globe and Mail, Martin Dokoupil and Marwa Rashad argue that this will lead to a “stronger, more diverse economy.” In particular, they focus on the plethora of businesses open at the moment — more than they think is necessary — and the resultant reduction in both “unnecessary” labor and businesses that would be possible if these foreign workers were forced to leave.

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Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

America to Become the Next Poland? / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: I want to share with my readers a chart that I find very interesting. The chart below (courtesy of our research group) compares the number of Americans on food stamps since the so-called recovery began in the S&P 500.

As you can see for yourself, they are following the same trajectory! Our research shows that since late 2009, for every one-percent increase in food stamps usage in the U.S., the S&P 500 increased two percent!

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Economics

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Syria’s Other Problem: Inflation, 193% Hyper-Inflation War / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Wars wreak havoc; life, property, and dreams are destroyed. In the process, wars — including civil wars, like Syria’s— progressively consume a country’s accumulated capital stock, too. In other words, as wars rage on, the destructive war economy gradually eats away at productive assets like land, factory capacity, and raw materials. Just where this process leads was well illustrated by the great Austrian economist, Prof. Fritz Machlup, in a 1935 article about Austria’s World War I inflation:

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Economics

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Robert Prechter Warns Deflation Will Take the Majority by Surprise / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Google searches offer an insightful glimpse into economic expectations

The last thing on the minds of most people is deflation. It's easy enough to determine that with a quick quiz -- and that quiz is found in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Iran Rouhani Delivers Lower Inflation, and other Troubled Currencies Project Updates / Economics / Inflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Iran: Prior to Hassan Rouhani’s election as Iran’s new president in June, the black-market Iranian rial to U.S dollar (IRR/USD) exchange rate stood at 36150, implying an annual inflation rate of 109 percent (June 15th 2013). Since Rouhani took office, Iranian expectations about the economy have turned positive, or at least less negative, and the black-market IRR/USD exchange rate has strengthened to 29200. In consequence, the implied annual inflation rate has fallen like a stone, and currently sits at 20 percent. That’s even lower than the most recent official annual inflation rate of 35.1 percent. (August 2013).

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Economics

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Why Economic Turnaround in the Eurozone Won’t Happen - U.S. Companies Beware / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: On Sunday, we saw the results of the election in Germany, the powerhouse of the eurozone. Angela Merkel won again. Her re-election sent a wave of optimism through Europe. I can just hear the chants declaring “the worst is over for the eurozone” starting up again.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

The American Economy is Not a Free-Market Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Those of us who favor the free market must confront a problem. The virtues of the market, and the vices of socialism and interventionism, have been made incontestably clear by Mises, Rothbard, Hazlitt and others. The case for the free market, as these great figures explain it, can readily be grasped and demands no esoteric knowledge. Yet many academics reject the market. They condemn capitalism for leaving many in poverty and for glaring inequalities. How can so many academics fail to grasp what seem to us obvious truths?

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Economics

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

QE Worked For The Weimar Germany For A Little While Too / Economics / HyperInflation

By: LewRockwell

Michael Snyder writes: There is a reason why every fiat currency in the history of the world has eventually failed. At some point, those issuing fiat currencies always find themselves giving in to the temptation to wildly print more money. Sometimes, the motivation for doing this is good. When an economy is really struggling, those that have been entrusted with the management of that economy can easily fall for the lie that things would be better if people just had “more money”. Today, the Federal Reserve finds itself faced with a scenario that is very similar to what the Weimar Republic was facing nearly 100 years ago. Like the Weimar Republic, the U.S. economy is also struggling and like the Weimar Republic, the U.S. government is absolutely drowning in debt. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has decided to adopt the same solution that the Weimar Republic chose.

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Economics

Monday, September 23, 2013

Fear the Boom, Not the Bust / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: If you listen to TV commentators, you’ve been told the worst is behind us. Growth is picking up, and Europe is coming out of its slumber. No one seems to be concerned that this tepid below-2-percent growth is being entirely fed by the central bank’s massive money printing. It’s a “growth at any price” policy. How quickly we forget.

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Economics

Monday, September 23, 2013

The Trajectory of Global Wage Equalization / Economics / Wages

By: Submissions

Keith Hilden writes: We are in a world in which our current governments, current monetary policies, current developmental policies, and current macroeconomic conditions are creating a new world in which wages will be set by skill, the ability to do the job, and productivity, rather than geographic location. A country's location on the globe is no longer a guarantee of the success of the inhabitants of that country, now that the globalized economy has arrived. This will further be achieved by the development of areas of the globe that as of now have largely missed out on economic development prospects. A CPA of equivalent ability and work produced in Africa will make roughly as much as a CPA in New York. A bus driver in Oklahoma City will make roughly as much as a bus driver in Tallinn, Estonia working the same amount. The ability to access these higher-paying jobs via higher education and training, and a solid educational foundation in their country of adolescence will still be a factor in separating higher wage jobs from lower wage jobs, but once anyone in the world is able to attain those requirements, they make roughly the same wages for the work produced, regardless of geographic location. Based on the trajectory the world is currently on, this will take a generation or so to occur. This is the track that governments and policymakers across the world have chosen our world to follow.

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Economics

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Can Quantitative Easing Create Economic Growth? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Frank_Shostak

Some commentators such as Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO), are of the view that the Federal Reserve’s policy of massive asset purchases has added very little to economic growth. A study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City explores various channels through which monetary pumping can grow the US economy. On this, the study indicates that the Fed’s purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBS) can have a strong beneficial effect. The study however suggests that with respect to the purchases of Treasury Bonds the effect on the economy is minimal.

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Economics

Sunday, September 22, 2013

America's Unfunded State Pensions Crisis - Rich, Poor and Begger Cities / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: John_Mauldin

"The future is already here," intoned William Gibson, one of my favorite cyberpunk science fiction authors, "it's just not very evenly distributed." Paraphrasing Gibson, the pension crisis is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed. For the past two weeks we've been exploring the problems of state pension funds. This week we will conclude our look at pension plans for the nonce with a 30,000-foot overview of the states and then take a deeper dive into one city: mine. This will give you at least one version of how to do your own homework about your own hometown. But fair warning, depending on your locale, you may need medical help or significant quantities of an adult beverage after you finish your research. Then again you may be pleasantly surprised and congratulate yourself on choosing a particularly adept hometown. And be on notice that, no matter what your personal conclusion and how well-grounded your analysis is, there will be people who live in your neighborhood who think you are utterly full of, well, let's just say "nonsensical matter" and leave it at that. This is a family letter.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The Need for a New Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In today's Outside the Box, my good friend George Gilder, the well-known techno-utopian, attempts with some success to turn economics on its ear. "The economy is not chiefly an incentive system," he asserts, "it is an information system." And information, truly understood, is about the introduction of novelty, or "surprise," into a system. In the case of the economy, it's about invention and entrepreneurship. The new information that is injected gets converted into knowledge; and thus, says George, it is accumulated knowledge, rather than money or material, that constitutes true wealth.

And thus the economy is driven not so much by powerful people and institutions wielding the levers of the economic machine as it is by the ever-increasing power of information and knowledge. Economists and the governments they work for often appear to prefer a deterministic, no-surprises (and too-big-to-fail) economy, but that way lies economic stagnation. If determinism worked, socialism would have thrived.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Bitter Facts of the Jobs Recovery You Need to Know About / Economics / Employment

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The Federal Reserve and Obama administration have pushed trillions of dollars of stimulus into the economic veins of America. For that, the return on the investment has been dismal.

Just take a look at the retail sales reading for August; consumer spending clearly isn’t doing what the government wants it to do and that is to spend and drive gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, September 14, 2013

The Silent Assassin Of The U.S. Economy / Economics / Inflation

By: Clif_Droke

When most people think about the biggest threats to the U.S. economy they usually mention things like the budget deficit, the national debt or the trade gap. What rarely gets mentioned as a potential economy killer is something we all have to face every day yet mainstream economists refuse to acknowledge it.

The biggest problem in the economy isn't the excessive amount of public or private debt; it's the extremely high level of prices for basic commodities like food and fuel. Economists consistently underestimate how much of the middle class worker's paycheck goes to buying these two essential needs. For all of its successes, the Fed's QE program did nothing to alleviate high retail food and fuel prices. If anything, it may have actually increased them.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, September 12, 2013

How Japan Pretends To Fight Debt And Deflation, But Doesn't / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Let's see if I can keep this nice and short: in my view the article below from Reuters correspondents Yoshifumi Takemoto and Yuko Yoshikawa, while looking innocent enough at first glance, in fact borders on nonsensical disinformation.

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Economics

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Seniors Are Stealing From Our Young, the Looming Entitlement Spending Catastrophe / Economics / Demographics

By: Bloomberg

Hedge fund icon and former Chairman, President and CIO of Duquesne Capital, Stan Druckenmiller joined Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker on "Market Makers" for a full hour and said, the government must address entitlement spending "This is the first generation where a 30-year-old's net worth is less than his parents...If you look at the older people, there net worth has doubled." Druckenmiller also said it would be a big deal for financial markets if the Federal Reserve were to completely end its asset purchases over the next 12-months.

Druckenmiller said he sees no bear market as long as fed prints money, prices will respond to actual QE exit, he doesn't see many investing opportunities, he is very focused on who the next Fed Chairman is, and thinks there are too many hedge fund managers.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

The Rundown on Runaway Inflation / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Despite a dramatic increase in the Fed's balance sheet, the Producer and Consumer Price Indexes are subdued

Famed radio broadcaster Earl Nightingale, who was the voice of Sky King on the radio and later went on to become a motivational speaker, described what he believed to be the biggest sin a public speaker could commit.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Economic Advantage America / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Today's Outside the Box, which comes to us from good friend Gary Shilling, is unusual because that old confirmed bear is waxing positively bullish about the future prospects of the US. In doing so he mirrors my own views. It is just a matter of time before I go from being bearish on the US because of the dysfunctional US government to being an irrational perma-bull, at least for the next few decades. There is just too much upside potential with this country of ours — if we can muster the political will to handle our serious fiscal issues.

Gary builds the positive case beyond the fiscal concerns, and a compelling case it is. In six crucial areas, he says — demographics, entrepreneurial activity, labor relations, domestic vs. foreign debt financing, currency strength, and energy independence — the US is better positioned than any of its major competitors.

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