Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 03, 2014
Understanding Argentina’s Coming Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: MISES
Nicolás Cachanosky writes:
At the time of this writing, Argentina is a few days away from formally defaulting on its debts.How could this happen three times in just twenty-eight years?
Following the 2001 default, Argentina offered a debt swap (a restructuring of debt) to its creditors in 2005. Many bondholders accepted the Argentine offer, but some of them did not. Those who did not accept the debt swap are called the “holdouts.” When Argentina started to pay the new bonds to those who entered the debt swap (the “holdins”), the holdouts took Argentina to court under New York law, the jurisdiction under which the Argentine debt has been issued. After the US Supreme Court refused to hear the Argentine case a few weeks ago, Judge Griesa’s ruling became final.
Friday, August 01, 2014
The EU's Anti Economic Austerity Hypocrites / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The European Union (EU) is still in the midst of an economic slump. Many members of the political class in Brussels claim that fiscal austerity is to blame. But, this diagnosis is wrong. The EU's problem is one of monetary, not fiscal, austerity. Money matters. Just look at the accompanying chart. Private credit in the Eurozone has been shrinking since March 2012.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Anne Elk’s Theory On Brontosauruses / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
By Grant Williams
Though they reunited this past month for a series of concerts at London’s O2 Arena, the cast of Monty Python last assembled onstage together at London’s Drury Lane Theatre a staggering 40 years ago.
As they took to the stage at the O2 in early July, the surviving members of perhaps the most famous comedy troupe in history (sadly, Graham Chapman died in 1989) boasted a combined age of 357.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Their Economy Will Collapse, Including Ours / Economics / Global Economy
By: Submissions
Harry Dent writes: Central bankers think they can keep their economy going by artificial stimulus until they hit escape velocity and grow at normal rates again — but they’re wrong.
Here at Dent Research we hold a different view to what drives the economy.
And central bankers are in for three big surprises ahead.
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Monday, July 28, 2014
Second Quarter Corporate Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
It's earnings season once again, and though only a quarter of the Russell 1000 has reported so far, the news is just north of positive. All signs indicate that the market has dusted itself off and is back to its cheerful self after a ho-hum first quarter, which was negatively affected by harsh winter weather.
Monday, July 28, 2014
Time to Put a New Economic Tool in the Box / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
[E]conomists are at this moment called upon to say how to extricate the free world from the serious threat of accelerating inflation which, it must be admitted, has been brought about by policies which the majority of economists recommended and even urged governments to pursue. We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2014
Global Economy - It's Déjà Vu Disappointment All Over Again / Economics / Global Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Baseball great Yogi Berra had a saying “It's déjà vu all over again”, and every year around this time, I am reminded of those words. As we have once again, happened upon that magical time of year I call, recovery summer déjà vu. It’s the time of year when Wall Street and Washington apologists trot out their dog and pony narrative, in an attempt to spin the actual data, proving we have finally embarked on the summer that will launch sustainable economic growth.
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Friday, July 25, 2014
Geopolitics and Markets Red Flags Raised by the Fed and the BIS on Risk-taking / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Growing geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind right now, but in today’s Outside the Box, Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management leads off with a helpful reminder: the only time since WWII that a violent conflict has had a medium-term negative effect on markets was in 1973, when the Israeli-Arab war led to a Saudi oil embargo against the US and a quadrupling of oil prices. And he backs up that assertion with an interesting table of facts labeled “War zone countries as a percentage of total world… [population, oil production, GDP, etc.].”
Friday, July 25, 2014
The Coming Economic Slump / Economics / Global Economy
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Governments and central banks have made little or no progress in recovering from the Lehman crisis six years ago. The problem is not helped by dependence on statistics which are downright misleading. This is particularly true of real GDP, comprised of nominal GDP deflated by an estimate of price inflation. First, we must discuss the inflation adjustment.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Reflections on the Global Misery Index / Economics / Social Issues
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Recently, I calculated misery index scores for 89 countries (see: Globe Asia May 2014). For any country, a misery index score is simply the sum of the unemployment, inflation and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. A higher misery index score reflects higher levels of “misery”.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
GDP Economic Statistic : A Brief But Affectionate History / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
“Measurement theory shows that strong assumptions are required for certain statistics to provide meaningful information about reality. Measurement theory encourages people to think about the meaning of their data. It encourages critical assessment of the assumptions behind the analysis.
Monday, July 21, 2014
Inflation's Real Cause / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
According to Pimco's new Chief Economist, Paul McCulley, the Fed's war against inflation has been won! But, before we get out our party hats and plan the tickertape parade, we have to ask ourselves - for the past 27 years have we really been at war with inflation? Yes, during the late 1970's and early 80's a different Paul (Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve) waged a real battle against inflation. Mr. Volcker painfully took the Fed Funds rate to near 20 percent in June of 1981. The economy suffered a deep recession, it was a treacherous battle plan, but the Fed stayed the course because Volcker was correctly convinced that limiting the growth rate of the money supply was the key to popping asset bubbles, vanquishing inflation and establishing a sound economy.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
What the Facts Say About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Investors are terrified of inflation right now...
But is it really a worry? Is it poised to eat away at your savings and wreck your income investments?
Many newsletter writers and talking heads say yes... According to them, inflation is already a big problem.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2014
U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s Outside the Box is from an old friend to regular readers. It’s time for our Quarterly Review & Outlook from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, who leads off this month with a helpful explanation of the relationship between the US GDP growth rate and 30-year treasury yields. That’s an important relationship, because long-term interest rates above nominal GDP growth (as they are now) tend to retard economic activity and vice versa.
The author adds that the average four-quarter growth rate of real GDP during the present recovery is 1.8%, well below the 4.2% average in all of the previous post-war expansions; and despite six years of federal deficits totaling $6.27 trillion and another $3.63 trillion in quantitative easing by the Fed, the growth rate of the economy continues to erode.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Never Mind Their Distrust of Economic Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy / Economics / Austrian Economics
By: F_F_Wiley
[O]f all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself. – From The Economist, July 16, 2009.
It’s been five years since the The Economist magazine published the critical commentary excerpted above. In hindsight, the noted reputational damage was neither lasting nor spectacular. As of today, we’d say it’s almost non-existent.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Knock, Knock. It's Deflation. Deflation Who? Video / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast warns that the contracting U.S. economy signals deflation ahead
In June, the U.S. government, revising its previous number, reported that the economy shrank by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014.
The steep plunge caught the bulls by surprise.
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Monday, July 14, 2014
Global Economy Is Deteriorating Fast / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The insanity doesn’t just continue, it intensifies. The overriding idea is still that the more companies and individuals borrow, the better the economy goes. But that is nowhere near true. It may have been at some point in the past, but not now, not with debt levels at historic highs. Today’s problem is not that there is not enough credit or money available, as central banks try to make you believe, but that people are not spending what they have. Individuals are either maxed out or scared to be left with nothing, and companies see no opportunities for investing in productive projects (besides, they may well be maxed out too).
Monday, July 14, 2014
Why Is Zero Economic Growth 'Unexpected' ? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
Always Unexpected
Each monthly decline in leading economic indicators, when it happens in the Eurozone, as in the US or Japan, China, Brazil, India or elsewhere, is always “unexpected”. Why is this?
For example the March, April, May and June declines for the Eurozone were each time titled “unexpected” by newswires and mainstream media the month following each “surprise”. Taking the case of Reuters, it reported April 14 that Eurozone industrial output had fallen in March “for the first time since August” so this was able to be called unexpected. Then the decline continued in April.
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Sunday, July 13, 2014
Marc Faber: Africa is Not Going to Be Another Southeast Asia / Economics / Africa
By: Submissions
Georgi Ivanov writes: In the last Squawkonomics interview with Marc Faber, we addressed an entire range of questions impacting regions of the global economy, including one of the most tantalizing topics: will Africa become another Southeast Asia and become the new hotspot growth region of the global economy? After decades and centuries of predictions of an African rise, will it finally be Africa's turn for robust economic development?
Wednesday, July 09, 2014
This Is Disgusting — And the Food Sounds Gross Too / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
It is by now generally understood, at least in the sound money community, that inflation is much higher than the government admits and that the true extent of the problem is being hidden in various ways. But the specifics keep getting more and more disturbing. Here’s a recent Phoenix Capital note (via Zero Hedge) on the adulteration of our “food.”