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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, July 06, 2013

Draghi's Guidance Light is Non-farm Payrolls Train at End of Tunnel / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Ashraf_Laidi

US June non-farm payrolls rose by 195K, surpassing forerecasts of 165K, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 7.6%. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find 12 consecutive monthly readings of +100K NFP. Not only non-farm payrolls have shown 3 consecutive monthly net additions of greater than 190K, but 12 consecutive monthly readings above 100K, the last time this was seen was in May 1999-May 2000.

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Economics

Friday, July 05, 2013

Central Banks Seal Europe's Economic Suicide Pact / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Andrew_McKillop

RISK OFF FOR THE MARKETS
Through a probably linked and coordinated decision, the two former Goldman insiders – the ECB's Mario Draghi and the BOE's Mark Carney – acted to further destroy the need or desire for personal savers to have savings at all, by holding interest rates at extreme lows. And they went further.

Also probably coordinated, both the ex-Goldman insiders now running European central banking took an “unprecedented step”. They both promised – or threatened – further rate cuts.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Can Bernanke Brake Without Derailing U.S. Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

According to most commentators, reducing monetary stimulus and winding down the balance sheet of the Fed without major economic disruptions is going to be a major challenge for US central bank policy makers. On Wednesday, June 19 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said that given an improved outlook on the economy, the US central bank may moderate the pace of monetary pumping. According to Bernanke, by mid-2014 the Fed may even end the purchasing of assets.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Syria’s Annual Inflation Hits 200% / Economics / Inflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

In an attempt to beat Western sanctions and halt the fall in the Syrian pound, the Assad regime – with the help of Iran, Russia, and China – has begun conducting all of its business in rials, roubles, and renminbi. This decision supplements other existing arrangements between Syria and its allies that are keeping the Syrian economy on life-support. These include transfers of $500 million per month in oil and an unlimited credit line with Tehran for food and oil-product imports.

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Economics

Sunday, June 30, 2013

China's Economic Rebalancing Killed The Asian Locomotive / Economics / China Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

PEKIN SCHEMES, PEKIN DREAMS
As we know, if we believe what we read in the media, Edward Snowden might be trying to return home and face show trial, but “under his own conditions”. In any case Vladimir Putin will be glad to get rid of him the same way China's leadership very quickly passed the buck, or rather the Snowden hot potato to Putin. More important for the world economy, China is no longer playing Asian Locomotive and has radical new plans – due to the pressures causing the new plans – for steering its economy.

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Economics

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Market Monopoly Through Austrian Economics Lenses / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: A recent 60 Minutes piece by Lesley Stahl cut into an extremely urgent problem of our day: expensive sunglasses. The report identified a possible monopoly in the market for glasses, a firm called Luxottica, which owns almost all the leading brands of eyewear, four large retailers of glasses, and even a popular vision insurance provider.

Stahl interviewed the CEO of Luxottica, Andrea Guerra, and questioned his business practices, the prices of his products, and Luxottica’s growth over the years. At times, she almost seemed to scold the successful CEO for, well, being so successful.

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Economics

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Dismal U.S. Consumer Spending to Drag U.S. Back into Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: While the mainstream economists were quick to believe that the U.S. economy is growing as the key stock indices suggest, I stood by my opinion that it isn’t.

After the first estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the U.S. economy came out, a wave of optimism struck and stock markets rallied. It seemed as if everything was headed in the right direction.

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Economics

Thursday, June 27, 2013

What’s So Scary About Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: When it comes to deflation, mainstream economics becomes not the science of common sense, but the science of nonsense. Most economists today are quick to say, “a little inflation is a good thing,” and they fear deflation. Of course, in their personal lives, these same economists hunt the newspapers for the latest sales.

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Economics

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Real Disposable Income Collapse at 2008 Crisis Rates / Economics / US Economy

By: Graham_Summers

The biggest single most important item in the GDP report yesterday was the collapse in disposable income for Americans.

Most investors will focus on the drop in GDP growth for 1Q13 and view it as opening the door for the Fed to continue with QE 3 and QE 4 without any tapering in sight.

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Economics

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Single Largest Driver of the US Economy is About to Collapse / Economics / US Economy

By: Graham_Summers

The markets continue their dead cat bounce while the economic data worsens.

First quarter US GDP was revised down from an annual rate of 2.4% to 1.8%. The drop was due to lower personal consumption expenditures than initially forecast.

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Economics

Thursday, June 27, 2013

How to Survive Hyperinflation - When Prices Double Every Day and a Half / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Don_Miller

What does life actually look like when your country and its currency collapse? In a recent Casey Daily Dispatch, two guest columnists – one from Zimbabwe and another from Bosnia – shared their respective feats of survival amid the horrors of hyperinflation and civil unrest. Sadly, their stories are not outliers. During my lifetime, far too many societies have reverted to barter, theft, and gang rule.

With Cyprus' volatile banking situation back in March and central banks in Europe, Japan, and the US printing money faster than Superman can fly, we have to stop and think: Just how safe are we, really?

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Economics

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Current U.S. Economic Climate According to The Prince of Darkness / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

As long-time readers know, I have a very eclectic group of friends and associates. Colorful, opinionated, generally both fun and funny, they make for interesting times and discussions wherever I go. I am not certain why they associate with such a mild-mannered, soft-spoken, Muddle-Through Texan like me, but most agree that I am at least good for comic relief. Next week I will be in the midst of some unabashed bulls, but today I offer up for your reading pleasure a note from a friend who is on the Dark Side of the fence, though he is hardly what you could call a conventional bear. He is Rich Yamarone, Chief Economist for Bloomberg.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Without Knowledge of the Past There is No Future / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Wim Grommen writes: Current problems associated with the end of the third industrial revolution

Humanity is being confronted with the same problems as those at the end of the second industrial revolution such as decreasing stock exchange rates, highly increasing unemployment, towering debts of companies and governments and bad financial positions of  banks. Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process, a transition.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Deflation By Any Other Name Would Smell As Foul / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Over the past two weeks or so, we've been seeing a very clear portrait of how sick our economies are. Not that you would know it from reading the press. The term deflation pops up only very cautiously. Could that be because people don't understand what's going on? Or are they simply afraid of the word? This is the real thing, guys. And it's going to hurt.

Money (actually: credit) has shifted out of emerging markets by the trillions. So where did it go? Not into bonds, stocks or precious metals. Money shifted out of there too, and also by the trillions. Money isn't going anywhere, it's going "poof". It's vanishing and will never be seen again.

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Economics

Monday, June 24, 2013

The Deflationist Error / Economics / Deflation

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Many people believe there is a significant risk that the Irving Fisher debt-deflation theory of great depressions is still an economic threat today. They overlook the fact that Fisher published his theory examining debt-deflation events under a gold standard, which does not apply today. Financial credit contractions therefore take a different appearance.

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Economics

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Keynes And The Cult Of Economic Doom / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

FERGUSON APOLOGIZES
Iconic history don and bestselling author Niall Ferguson apologised "unreservedly" for "stupid and tactless" remarks in which he implied that John Maynard Keynes did not care about future generations – “in the long run we are all dead” - because Keynes was a childless homosexual. As we know to our present and future cost, Keynes was more concerned about ultra low short-term interest rates and vast government handouts, financed by borrowing. Ferguson claims his disagreement with Keynes, his opposition to deficit spending and the economic philosophy called “Keynesianism” was nothing to do with Keynes' sexual orientation. Ferguson said his real point was: “The point I had made in my presentation was that in the long run our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren are alive and will have to deal with the consequences of our economic actions." On that score we can only agree.

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Economics

Saturday, June 22, 2013

France On its Way to Becoming the New Greece / Economics / France

By: John_Mauldin

The France that I see as I look out from the bullet train today is far different from the France I see when I survey the economic data. Going from Marseilles to Paris, the countryside is magnificent. The farms are laid out as if by a landscape artist – this is not the hurly-burly no-nonsense look of the Texas landscape. The mountains and forests that we glide through are glorious. It is a weekend of special music all over France, and last night in Marseilles the stages were alive and the crowds out in force. The French people smile and graciously correct my pidgin attempts at speaking French. I have found it diplomatic not to mention that I think France is in for a very difficult future. Why spoil the party?

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Economics

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Is GDP Economic Growth a Hoax? What are they Hiding? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

There is always an assurance from our Government that the economy is doing fine, jobs are recovering, wages are going up and prices are under control. We are never been told what actually happened behind the scene or problems our economy is facing. Through propaganda by the media we are persuaded that everything is in the safe hands of the Government.

Even when economies around us are collapsing we are led to believe that our economy is the strongest, our share market is the best performing, our economic fundamentals are the best or in short we are the best managed economy. We are given the impression that our economy is ‘invincible and different from others’. But the problem is whether our economy is living up to what was preached by our Government. Is there a way to gauge the real performance of our economy other than relying on figures published by them?

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Economics

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

China's Innovation Hurdle Points to Withering Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

All weekend long and this morning as I wake up in Monaco, the number of disparate publications screaming at me about problems in China is just overwhelming. Then I get myself up early to hear a speech by the esteemed British economist Charles Dumas of Lombard Street fame, and I am confronted with even more China. I have been watching China for a long time, expecting a crisis, as I readily admit I simply do not understand a country that has defied so many of the economic laws of gravity for so long. Some kind of return to normal economic paradigms seems almost mandated, but the question has always been when. Have the Chinese discovered some new control mechanism, found some different levers to pull that they should share with the rest of the world, or will we see them revert to something that looks more like whatever it is that passes for "normal" these days? My bet has always been the latter.

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Economics

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Revenge of the Minsky Moment, Economists Are Still Clueless / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again. - John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform

There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present. - John Kenneth Galbraith

Hitler must have been rather loosely educated, not having learned the lesson of Napoleon's autumn advance on Moscow. - Sir Winston Churchill

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