Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 20, 2009
The U.S. Recession Jobless Interest Rate Conundrum / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Tim_Iacono
Just about everywhere you look these days in the financial media, when the topic of discussion turns to the plunging U.S. dollar, you'll hear someone saying something like, "Unless the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar's got nowhere to go but down".
And then someone invariably says, "But the central bank can't raise interest rates. Not with the unemployment rate at over ten percent!"
Friday, November 20, 2009
U.S. Economy is a Geriatric on Viagra / Economics / US Economy
By: Brian_Bloom
A retired friend, an academic in a field unrelated to the subject of economics or finance, recently asked me to tell him what I thought was happening in these (to him) surreal worlds. Why are some people so bearish that they were effectively anticipating the end of the world whilst others are insisting that a bull market is upon us?
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Communist China, 1995, The Dawn of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Steve_Selengut
The Hong Kong based guide talked about the free enterprise zones, building projects, golf courses, and roads with a chest full of pride and visible excitement. Capitalism was everywhere along the tour route, and judging from the advertisements on billboards and posters, the world was coming to China!
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
UK Budget Deficit Could Hit £200 Billion, 18% of GDP / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The public sector net borrowing requirement (PSBR), which is the deficit between government revenues and expenditure for October came in at £11.4 billion (£0 Oct 2008), the worst October since records began which surprised mainstream academic economist projections for the month of between £4-7 billion which compares against my own projection of £12 billion. The deficit for 2009/10 now totals £86.9 billion which on face value is inline with the the Governments target of £175 billion by the end of the current financial year.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
U.S. Debt, Where’s the Money Going to Come From? / Economics / US Debt
By: Graham_Summers
A lot of what passes for analysis of the US economy is far too complicated. The reality is that you only need to do basic arithmetic to see that the US is STILL in a recession if not depression.
Let’s break it down.
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
United States at Recession or Inflation Crossroads / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Browne
The U.S. economy is in uncertain times. Analysts are split between those seeing recovery and those fearing a second downturn. This confusion is being echoed in the highest levels of government as President Obama simultaneously speaks about the need for more federal spending and warns of the dangers of increased debt. As the volatile markets indicate, investors are not only confused - they are seriously concerned.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Will Consumer Spending Really be Different This Time? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Hans_Wagner
Most analysts believe the American consumer has changed their free spending ways. Every article on the state of the consumer indicates they have cut their spending, are saving more, and paying off their enormous debt. Everywhere you go, they expect this pattern will continue as the consumer had fundamentally changed their ways. But have they really?
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Our Steroidally Challenged Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
Birds are singing, the sun is shining and life is beautiful again. On the surface, the vital signs of our economy are improving with every economic report. In some areas, like unemployment, the rate of decline is decelerating; in others, like GDP, decline is turning into growth.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Deflationists Are WRONG, Prepare for the INFLATION Mega-Trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The jist of the deflationists argument is that debt deleveraging MUST trigger huge consumer and asset price deflation. Whilst we have all witnessed huge asset price deflation and some consumer price deflation during 2008 and into 2009. However we have also witnessed unprecedented government and central bank actions of this year, which have ignited asset price inflation with more to come that is now starting to feed into consumer price inflation.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
The Investment Game Plan, How to Combat Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Inflation is an easily understood phenomenon. Although it takes a myriad of think tanks to find the root of the problem, the issue is quite simple, and investors can easily prepare their portfolios against the ravages of inflation.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Three Reasons Why Inflation Will Not Be Stopped / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Inflationary practices are the primary driver of growth in the value of precious metals, and they are already in play to combat the credit crunch. Although the Federal Reserve is planning its exit strategy, there is little chance one will actually be enacted – which means that inflation will continue to bulldoze the value of the US dollar.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
U.S. Economy Will Dodge Double Dip Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Historically, the U.S. stock market has been one of the key leading indicators of a U.S. economic rebound.
With the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up more than 60% from its March lows – and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up nearly 40% – prognosticators are finally confident that the U.S. economy will dodge the “double-dip” recession that has been the focus of much fear since the Bush and Obama administrations launched their financial counterattacks on the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
UK Markets Look to Release of CPI Inflation Data / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
In the UK, the October consumer price indices are released and the first rise in the headline annual rate of CPI inflation for eight months is expected (to 1.6% from 1.1% in September). The range of the market consensus for today’s CPI reading is unusually large at 1% to 1.7%, underscoring the point that the near-term picture for UK inflation is particularly uncertain in the midst of a high volatility period. We expect this feature to persist during the early part of 2010, when we expect the standard rate of VAT to be restored to 17½% and the effects of the exchange rate and other energy base effects to cause prices to fluctuate markedly.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
United States Economy At Zero Hour To Service Debt Mountain / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Today's Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week's Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some very thought-provoking ideas. You can contact them for more information at info@eclectica-am.com or visit their website: http://www.eclectica-am.com
Monday, November 16, 2009
What Bernanke's Economic Recovery Means for U.S. Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Earlier today, At the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his Outlook for the Economy and Policy.
His speech contains much self-serving claptrap about how Federal Reserve policy save the day. Nowhere has the Fed admitted its role in creating the mess.
Monday, November 16, 2009
GDP Forecasts Revised Higher and Gold Boosted by Negative Returns in All Currencies / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
I travel for business purposes a lot these days. Moreover, the battery life on my laptop is limited. As a result, at least these are the excuses I am offering, I do not have as much time to write as I used to. Hence the dearth of Econtrarians. Once a month we must update our economic and interest rate forecasts. Given that I have little new to say about the forecast this month, as was the case last month, I am again using the update as an opportunity to communicate some thoughts I have had over the past month but have not had the opportunity until now to jot them down.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Second U.S. Economic Stimulus Package Headed Our Way? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Is the recent market softness something to be worried about?
Not if U.S. President Barack Obama & Co. comes through with a second stimulus package – as I’m expecting.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Which is the Strongest BRIC Country for Investing? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Martin_D_Weiss
I have a trick question for you, especially if you’re interested in emerging markets:
Among the four BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — which offers the best stock market performance for American investors?
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Five Reasons China Is Not a Bubble / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Romeo Dator writes: A year ago, nobody thought China could manage 8 percent GDP growth in 2009. With year-to-date growth coming in at 7.7 percent through the first three quarters and getting stronger, China is poised to break that 8 percent mark rather easily.
The success of the stimulus and the lofty economic numbers China has managed to produce amidst a global crisis has led many to claim China is the next great bubble.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Only a New Credit Bubble (that isn’t coming) Staves Off Deflation / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Chris_Galakoutis
The next issue I wanted to write about in this post is this whole notion of ballooning reserves at the Fed, and how we get to hyperinflation if this money were to ever be lent out and multiplied across the economy. Reserves might have gone from 10 Billion in August 2008, to about 1 Trillion today, but in fact, this money is not being lent out – it is simply sitting there at the Fed, earning interest.