Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Three Reasons Why Inflation Will Not Be Stopped / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Inflationary practices are the primary driver of growth in the value of precious metals, and they are already in play to combat the credit crunch. Although the Federal Reserve is planning its exit strategy, there is little chance one will actually be enacted – which means that inflation will continue to bulldoze the value of the US dollar.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
U.S. Economy Will Dodge Double Dip Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Historically, the U.S. stock market has been one of the key leading indicators of a U.S. economic rebound.
With the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up more than 60% from its March lows – and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up nearly 40% – prognosticators are finally confident that the U.S. economy will dodge the “double-dip” recession that has been the focus of much fear since the Bush and Obama administrations launched their financial counterattacks on the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
UK Markets Look to Release of CPI Inflation Data / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
In the UK, the October consumer price indices are released and the first rise in the headline annual rate of CPI inflation for eight months is expected (to 1.6% from 1.1% in September). The range of the market consensus for today’s CPI reading is unusually large at 1% to 1.7%, underscoring the point that the near-term picture for UK inflation is particularly uncertain in the midst of a high volatility period. We expect this feature to persist during the early part of 2010, when we expect the standard rate of VAT to be restored to 17½% and the effects of the exchange rate and other energy base effects to cause prices to fluctuate markedly.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
United States Economy At Zero Hour To Service Debt Mountain / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Today's Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week's Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some very thought-provoking ideas. You can contact them for more information at info@eclectica-am.com or visit their website: http://www.eclectica-am.com
Monday, November 16, 2009
What Bernanke's Economic Recovery Means for U.S. Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Earlier today, At the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his Outlook for the Economy and Policy.
His speech contains much self-serving claptrap about how Federal Reserve policy save the day. Nowhere has the Fed admitted its role in creating the mess.
Monday, November 16, 2009
GDP Forecasts Revised Higher and Gold Boosted by Negative Returns in All Currencies / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
I travel for business purposes a lot these days. Moreover, the battery life on my laptop is limited. As a result, at least these are the excuses I am offering, I do not have as much time to write as I used to. Hence the dearth of Econtrarians. Once a month we must update our economic and interest rate forecasts. Given that I have little new to say about the forecast this month, as was the case last month, I am again using the update as an opportunity to communicate some thoughts I have had over the past month but have not had the opportunity until now to jot them down.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Second U.S. Economic Stimulus Package Headed Our Way? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Is the recent market softness something to be worried about?
Not if U.S. President Barack Obama & Co. comes through with a second stimulus package – as I’m expecting.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Which is the Strongest BRIC Country for Investing? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Martin_D_Weiss
I have a trick question for you, especially if you’re interested in emerging markets:
Among the four BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — which offers the best stock market performance for American investors?
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Five Reasons China Is Not a Bubble / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Romeo Dator writes: A year ago, nobody thought China could manage 8 percent GDP growth in 2009. With year-to-date growth coming in at 7.7 percent through the first three quarters and getting stronger, China is poised to break that 8 percent mark rather easily.
The success of the stimulus and the lofty economic numbers China has managed to produce amidst a global crisis has led many to claim China is the next great bubble.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Only a New Credit Bubble (that isn’t coming) Staves Off Deflation / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Chris_Galakoutis
The next issue I wanted to write about in this post is this whole notion of ballooning reserves at the Fed, and how we get to hyperinflation if this money were to ever be lent out and multiplied across the economy. Reserves might have gone from 10 Billion in August 2008, to about 1 Trillion today, but in fact, this money is not being lent out – it is simply sitting there at the Fed, earning interest.
Monday, November 16, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Projected Scenarios For the Next 10 Years / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Last week in Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 I posted a chart and tables of what unemployment might look like in what is best described as an optimistic "muddle through" scenario with no recessions for another decade.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Deficit Doubles for Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp / Economics / US Debt
By: Trader_Mark
So many future bailouts to look forward to, so little time. So many cans do kick down the road via accounting adjustments, so few feet do keep doing the kicking. While I read this piece I was struck by my own reaction... not even $30 billion in deficit? This is peanuts! We've become so numb to bailouts that anything less than hundreds of billions seems like a normal part of Bailout Nation. Yet just over a decade ago the world was in a panic over hedge fund Long Term Capital and its gaping hole of $3.6 billion.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Not so fast Australia! / Economics / Austrailia
By: Kevin_George
The “lucky country” managed to live up to its name in becoming the only industrialized country to escape recession.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
What Is At Stake With Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Shamus_Cooke
In the ten years since the World Trade Organization (WTO) protests in Seattle, global opposition to free trade and “globalization” has exploded. The general public now has a basic understanding of how the world economy works … against them: companies scour the globe searching for slave wages, which help push down wages in “developed” countries; any regulation that reduces profits — environmental, financial, labor, etc. — is destroyed or ignored.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
The New Command Economy Impact on Stocks and Crude Oil / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Christopher_Wood
One week on and sentiment, judging by meetings with US investors over the past week, has again shifted to the “melt up” into year end. If the failure of the stock market to respond more positively to the last two monthly ISM data points is a cautionary signal, the break out of the oil price in recent weeks after four months of sideways consolidation around the US$70/bbl level is the sort of market action likely to be associated with a “melt up” (see Figure 1). This is because oil is for now a proxy for risk.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
China's Phony GDP Growth Data, Evidence Ordos the Empty City / Economics / China Economy
By: Trader_Mark
Just a fascinating video below showing how China is achieving these "consistent" GDP growth numbers [Aug 5, 2009: China's Provincial Growth Figures Far Overstated versus National Figures]. Obviously on a relative basis the country is doing far better than many in the world but trying to figure out what is actually happening inside is guesswork.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
If This is Economic Recovery, Where Are the Increased Tax Revenues? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?
Last Business Standing
Stimulus, What Stimulus?
The Reality of Unemployment
Let the Good Times Roll
The Quick Double-Dip Scenario
No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates. This is an anecdote to the happy-face analysis of employment numbers you get from establishment economists. There will be a lot of charts and tables, so this letter may print a little longer, but I think you will find it very interesting.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
America Follows Japan Over the Debt Fuelled Economic Cliff / Economics / US Debt
By: Bill_Bonner
“It’s amazing; the US is doing everything that Japan did wrong,” said a friend yesterday.
Let’s see, in the 1980s Japan’s corporate leaders thought they were going to take over the world. Investors thought so too. They expanded. They wheeled. They dealed. Prices shot up and they all thought they were geniuses.
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Friday, November 13, 2009
U.S. Job Losses Demystified / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
As the unemployment rate crossed the double digit barrier for the first time since Michael Jackson learned to moonwalk, President Obama announced that he will convene a “jobs summit” to finally bring the problem under control. Using all the analytic skill that his administration can muster, the President is determined to figure out why so many people are losing their jobs and then formulate a solution. That's a relief; for a while there, I thought we were in real trouble! In fact, the absolute last thing our economy needs is more federal government interference. If Obama really wants to know what's behind entrenched joblessness, he should start by looking at the man in the mirror.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Krugman's Magic Solution to Budgetary Woes / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Long-time readers know that I am second only to Bill Anderson in my constant criticism of Paul Krugman. Indeed, I quite recently defended the gold standard from Krugman's ridicule.
Given this context, I am very surprised to confess that Krugman has convinced me of the virtues of currency debasement. As I was reading his blog post on the tragic fate of Ecuador, I applied Krugman's lessons to my personal life, and suddenly everything became clear. In a flash, all of my household's financial stresses were solved.
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