Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Volcker Says U.S. Economy is ‘Leveling Off’ even though GDP Shrinks Most in 50 Years / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
GDP shrank at an annual rate of 6.1% according to the First Quarter 2009 Advance GDP Report.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
FDR's New Deal vs Obamanomics / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Stephen_Lendman
With good reason, progressive economists reflect positively on Roosevelt's New Deal even though:
-- it failed to end the Great Depression;
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
After Iceland’s Economic Collapse, Election Not about Left and Right / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Global_Research
Prof. Michael Hudson writes: I can hardly believe the news reports on Iceland’s election on Saturday, April 25. Evidently in an attempt to interest readers in an island few know or have cared much about, the papers tried to attract reader attention by talking about the “left” unseating the “right.” No doubt this political swing is going to continue for many years to come throughout the world. But for Iceland’s voters the issues were more pragmatic. Reckless neoliberal bank privatization is indeed the main problem, but the proposed responses are not inherently left or right as such. At issue is whether voters have become so desperate in the wake of crooks wrecking the financial system that they will seek a more stable currency (the euro) by joining Europe on terms that forfeit control over Iceland’s North Atlantic fishing waters and burden taxpayers with unprecedented public debt to compensate British, Dutch and other European bank depositors and speculators for their losses?
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Latest U.S. Housing and Consumer Confidence Numbers Point to Sustainable Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The U.S. housing market is showing signs of stabilizing just as the American consumer is demonstrating a renewed willingness to start saving less and spending more, according to reports yesterday (Tuesday) from two closely watched economic surveys. The reports buoyed investor hopes that a blossoming economic recovery may well be sustainable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Swine Flu Pandemic Threatens Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Pandemic
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller Writes: The delicate state of the global economy could be rocked by an outbreak of swine flu, which has killed over 100 people in Mexico and infected many others in the United States, Canada, Spain and New Zealand.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Global Economy on the Disastrous Road of Hope / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Those without hope, despair. Those without faith, hope.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The Two Gaping Holes in the Inflationist Argument / Economics / Inflation
By: Andrew_Butter
The current debate revolves around the simplified monetarist equation (which everyone accepts), that says (M•VT = P•TT) where (M) is the amount of (liquid) money in the system, (VT) is the transactions velocity of this money which is the average frequency across all transactions with which a unit of money is spent (i.e. how fast it moves from one pocket to another), (PT) is the price of goods and services being traded and (T) is an index of the real value of aggregate transactions (no it's not the number of transactions, that's included in (V) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money)). [VT] and [T] are hard to measure and the equation can also be expressed as (M•V = P•Q) where (Q) is output, which approximates to real GDP, typically (M) is measured and (V) is calculated from (V=M/nominal GDP).
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Why It’s Stagflation, Not Hyperinflation... For Now / Economics / Stagflation
By: Michael_Pento
In the longer term, the risk of the U.S. suffering through a bout with hyperinflation is very real. However, in the short term what we most likely face is a protracted period of stagflation first because of our record debt and the Fed’s decision to pay interest on excess bank reserves.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The Housing & Economic Bubble in Real Life / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: LewRockwell
Myron Weber writes: As my wife and I were on our way to the home improvement store this past weekend, I saw the economic bubble that brought about the current bust illustrated in stark reality. Near our home in Orange County, California, driving on a beautifully-paved, 6-lane street with a landscaped median and surrounded by relatively new housing developments, the conversation went something like this:
Monday, April 27, 2009
Money Supply Multipliers, Velocity, and Excess Reserves / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading the Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt. It's an excellent report so let's take a look at some commentary and charts.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Darling's Wishful Thinking Budget is Bad News for Gilts / Economics / UK Economy
By: MoneyWeek
Rats are usually the first to abandon a sinking ship. But in Britain, it seems the rats are only too happy to stick around. According to Bloomberg, rats are "thriving, with shuttered shops and half-built housing sites to live in, rotting piles of uncollected garbage for dinner, and fewer exterminators sent out to kill them." The rat population has grown by 13% this year, to more than 50m, reckons Peter Crowden, head of the National Pest Technicians Association.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Economic Downturn Hits UK Public Finances / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Overview
UK Budget 2009 announcements were as grim as
expected. Official borrowing will reach over 12%
of the economy in the current financial year, or £175bn. It will fall only slightly in 2010/11 to £173bn, and to 11.9% of the economy if the official
forecast of 1.25% growth for 2010 proves correct.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Financial & Economic Crisis: Are We at the End of the Beginning, or the Beginning of the End? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Kevin_Geary
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Winston Churchill —at the Lord Mayor's Luncheon, Mansion House following the victory at El Alamein in North Africa, London, 10 November 1942.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Improving Economic Indicators as Housing Market Shows Signs of Stabilising / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading Index - continues to send message of weak economic conditions
“The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) dropped -0.3% in March 2009, after a revised 0.2% decline during February. The LEI posted the last increase in June 2008. On a year-to-year basis, the quarterly average of the LEI fell 3.8% after a 4.0% decline in the fourth quarter. The LEI appears to have established a bottom in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
European Union in Crisis as Financial & Economic Problems Multiply Threatening Euro Stability / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week. And it’s projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 TRILLION. That’s four times the amount projected in last year’s report.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Back to the Future Recession 2010-11, Professors Teaching Economic Garbage / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
MV=PQ
Financial Innovation: The Round Trip
2010-11: Back to the Future Recession
The Fed at the Crossroads
How Did We Get It So Wrong?
The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends
This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas. You can also go there to sign up to get this letter sent to you free each week.
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Friday, April 24, 2009
UK Economic Crash, GDP Contracts by 1.9% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK GDP contracted by a shockingly high 1.9% for the first quarter of 2009, which was set against consensus forecasts for a 1.5% contraction. Barely 2 days ago the Chancellor Alistair Darling forecast GDP contraction of 3.5% for 2009, 1.25% growth for 2010 and 3.5% growth for 2011. At the time I stated that Alistair Darling forecasts implied a miraculous turnaround and was set against my own forecast as of February 09 for 2009 GDP contraction of 4.75%, with peak to trough contraction of -6.3%.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Global Economic Depression Unemployment- Learning from Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Stathis
I ran across an interesting story about how Japan is using a somewhat innovative approach to deal with its own symptoms of what will eventually be recorded in history books as the global depression. http://www.nytimes.com..
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Friday, April 24, 2009
UK GDP Forecast to Contract by 1.5% for 1st Quarter 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP data for the first quarter of 2009 to be released this morning is expected by the majority of economists to contract by 1.5% despite panic measures of zero interest rates and quantitative easing which however have yet to show through in economic data. The Market Oracle forecast as of Feb 2009 is for GDP contraction of 1.1% for the first quarter of 2009.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
UK Unemployment Targets 3 Million This Year / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Unemployment shot up by 71,000 for January 09 data to 12 year high of 2.1 million to officially stand at 6.7% of the workforce, 2.1 million is exactly on target as per my forecast of October 2008. However the more up to date unemployment claimant count data continued to soar, rising by 64,000 in March to 1.52 million, which is up more than 50% on the 970,000 figure of 6 months ago and acts as a leading leading indicator which signals much higher forward unemployment data as illustrated by the below graph