Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Protectionism Enemy of Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bryan_Rich
In the most global-reaching recession since the Great Depression, protectionism is a poison pill for recovery. And we got a taste of it this week …
The Chinese supply about 19 percent of the U.S. tire market. And the Obama administration just slapped a 35 percent tariff on those imports!
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Saturday, September 19, 2009
The Recession has Technically Ended, Is Bernanke Joking? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bob_Chapman
To borrow from an old joke about politicians, we ask our subscribers if they know how to tell when Helicopter Ben Bernanke, the current Fed Head, is lying. Answer: Whenever his lips are moving. Now we hear from the Dollar-Destroyer that our recession has technically ended (heaven forbid that we should call our current Fed-caused calamity a depression, which is what it has been since Obama took office). So we guess that we should take his word for it, seeing that every call he has made during his short tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board has been 100% wrong.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Academic Economists Lead Governments to the Edge of the Abyss / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
99.9% of academic economists living in ivory towers lost in world of their own formulae's and theories of what should happen and what could not happen not only did not see the crisis coming but far more dangerously led the government and central bank policy makers down a long winding garden path towards the edge of the financial and economic abyss. It was only after all of the economic theory was binned i.e. that which the academics had worked on and spouted for decades was financial armageddon avoided.
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Friday, September 18, 2009
Mervyn King’s Comments Hit Sterling While Stocks Continue to Rise / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Sterling faced considerable selling pressure this week following Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s Treasury testimony on Tuesday. The Governor commented that the BoE were “looking at” possibly lowering the deposit rates paid to commercial banks on reserves although not mentioning negative interest rates. The resulting decline in yields at the short-end of the curve weighed on sterling and in particular EUR/GBP which closed the week at 0.9045 having broken through 0.90 for the first time since 14th May. All the G-10 currencies posted gains versus sterling.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Rich and Poor Parallel Economies, Recession and Record Profits / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Rev_Richard_Skaff
The Real Estate Bubble is Not Over
In December 14, 2008, in his interview on the CBS sixty minutes show, Whitney Tilson an investment fund manager predicted that the subprime collapse was only half way of the total real estate bubble, and that the second half will begin take place around 2010 and will continue until about the year 2013. Tilson also discussed the two fancy Wall Street terms for bad mortgages namely Alt-A (Alternative-A paper) and option arms mortgages. These loans lured borrowers with teaser rates that will begin to reset this year.
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Friday, September 18, 2009
US DEBT Out Of Control! / Economics / US Debt
By: Andrew_Abraham
It is not my imagination. The total US debt is sky rocketing. People are entitled to their opinions…but not entitled to the facts.
The US Govt debt this year is spiraling out of control. Estimates place the increase of debt by at least $2 trillion dollars. The question is, can this debt reach 100% of GDP at around $13 trillion. Putting things into context…before the Great Depression in 1929 the US Govt debt was only 15% of GDP! To make matters even worse, the US in 1929 was a creditor nation. Today the US is a debtor nation. Comparing the current situation to the situation prior to the Great Depression total US debt (individual, business,local, state and federal) was approx 170% of GDP.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Deflation and Bankers Mix Like Oil and Water / Economics / Deflation
By: Adam_Brochert
Why is deflation bad? If one can manage to keep one's job and one has some savings, deflation is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Stuffing cash under the mattress is actually profitable during a true deflation, as the prices of most goods fall during deflation. Why exactly then is deflation bad?
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Thursday, September 17, 2009
How To Stimulate Consumer Spending and Jumpstart The Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Steve_Selengut
My survey produced an interesting anomaly--- several respondents felt that excessive consumer spending was the primary cause of the economic problems we face today, and that spending is not to be encouraged.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Is the Fed's Money Pumping Inflationary? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
Given the recent, massive increase in commercial banks' excess reserves, many commentators are of the view that banks will sooner or later start employing these reserves in lending and thus cause an increase in the inflation rate.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
U.S. August Retail Aales up 2.7 per cent / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: LiveCharts
While many top economists have suggested that housing and credit sectors have bottomed, most have still been watching and waiting for retail sales and consumer spending to give more legs to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments that the recession is over. Perhaps Tuesday (September 15) morning’s August retail sales report is just the medicine investors and consumers are looking for.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Outsourcing Unemployment To China / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
As goes the US consumer so goes Chinese manufacturing. Here is a long but educational video produced by Vanguard on several Chinese manufacturing cities and what the economic downturn has meant for them. It's well worth a play.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
China Trading Places with U.S. As Economic Super Power / Economics / China Economy
By: Tony_Sagami
Here’s a headline that broke my heart when I read it last week: “U.S. Poverty Rate Hits 11-Year High.”
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that a sad-but-true 13.2 percent or 39.2 million Americans are living below the poverty line, defined as less than $22,025 for a family of four. That’s the highest rate since 1997.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
The Fed Owns Most American Monetary Economists / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
The Social Security system has long been described as the third rail of American politics. "Touch it, and you die." You get electrocuted. If you should somehow survive, the next subway train will cut you in pieces.
There is such a rail in academia: the Federal Reserve System.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Economic Outlook for 16th September 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Lloyds_TSB
Broadly speaking, the theme of equities making progress on the back of ample liquidity in financial markets continues to hold. Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected economic data from the US and UK were also helpful, with US retail sales of particular note. But all that glitters may not be gold. As in other countries with incentive schemes to scrap old cars in favour of new models, the boost to consumer spending is not permanent.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook, Depression Avoided but Economy Still Faces Strong Headwinds / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
We have just weathered the longest (19 months?) and deepest recession in the post-WWII era.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Disturbing Financial and Economic Trends 2009 / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Bail, rescue, print formula
no cure for what ails America.
"[E]normous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects. For now, most of those effects are invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself." -- Warren Buffett
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
US Census Bureau Confirms Rising Poverty, Falling Incomes, and Growing Numbers of Uninsured / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Stephen_Lendman
In early September, The US Census Bureau released its new report titled, "Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008" showing disturbing data that portends much worse ahead under a president and Congress doing nothing to address it.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
U.S. China Tire Trade War Could Lead to Second Great Depression / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: When U.S. President Barack Obama late Friday (Sept. 11) signed an order that imposed an additional duty of 35% on tires imported from China, it set up the potential for an old-fashioned trade war.
Currently, global trade is down only 20%. During normal times, worldwide commerce would recover on its own. But as most investors understand all too well, these aren't normal times.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Can Keynesian Spending Achieve National Energy Security ? / Economics / Climate Change
By: Andrew_McKillop
The December Revolution -
The coming World Climate Summit, also called COP-15, is scheduled for a marathon 11 day series through December 7-18 in Copenhagen. This will bring together 192 presidents, heads of government or high level delegations, observers from a selected range of UN agencies and some other accredited organizations, selected NGOs and commercial sponsors, and carefully selected press and media. For the public getting in to these meetings is a lot more difficult, with open access sessions being the exception not rule. This has already resulted in accusations that COP-15 is essentially a closed-door forum where climate business will be pushed to the limit. Where national leaders will haggle in private for clear advantages and gains, here, and lower costs and losses, there.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Yellen Calls For "U" Shaped Recession and Another Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
One thing I like about Janet Yellen is that unlike Bernanke and Greenspan, she speaks understandable English and is not prone to sugar coating everything. I disagree with much of what she says, but not all of it.