Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, November 26, 2018

What Is the Stock Market Trying to Tell Us? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, co-founders of Seabridge Gold, explore what’s next for the stock market and how that will affect gold.

First and foremost, valuations are too high. Third-quarter results have been disappointing. Investors are realizing that sales and earnings cannot grow fast enough to keep the market at record valuations.

Second, the stock market is telling us that its advance has been too narrow. . .too dependent upon a handful of stocks driven higher by the herding effect of passive ETF and index investing where the winners win more because they are winners, boosted by their celebrity status than fundamentals. These market leaders have now been rounded up and summarily shot.

Monday, November 26, 2018

Stock Market Approach Neckline / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX advanced during the short holiday week, making a new high and higher low, closing above its weekly Cycle Top at 20.63.  Note the Head & Shoulders formation which may give it more impetus in the next week.  VIX is also positioned for a triply-indicated surge of strength through mid-December.

Monday, November 26, 2018

Stock Market Short-term Panic! Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast update that we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?

Monday, November 26, 2018

Most Stock Market’s Around the World are Falling. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has made a 61.8% bounce and now retested its lows, which is the standard pattern for these fast 10%+ corrections. “Drop, pop, and slop”

Now that the stock market has almost retested its exact October 2018 lows, what’s next?

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Stock Market New Low in Store? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend –  bearish correction which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Friday, November 23, 2018

U.S. Stock Market’s Volume is Low Around Thanksgiving / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Happy Thanksgiving! It’s important to remember that this week’s volume is very light, so don’t read too much into price action. The price can be easily pushed around by a few big players.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

Friday, November 23, 2018

XLY – Don’t Count the American Consumer Out Yet / Stock-Markets / Retail Sector

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The U.S. Consumer Measured Via the XLY

“The U.S. economy is the global economic driver. And within the U.S. economy, the U.S. consumer is the global driver.” James P. Gorman

We’re Entering In Negative Territory for 2018

The stock market (measured via the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average) has officially erased all of its 2018 gains. I can see from the headlines like the one pictured below from The Drudge Report that there’s certainly starting to be a bit of panic in the air.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

China Stock Market Preparing New Elliott Wave Bullish Cycle / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The trade war between USA & China had led to a global fear around the stock market and causing a mid-term “bear market” in China which lost 30% since the start of 2018. The latest plan is that the two leaders US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would meet for dinner on December 1 immediately after the G20 meeting in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires.

Trump says US is ‘doing extremely well’ with China but deal not done yet. Therefore the next meeting could be critical for this ongoing war trade talk and its result will have important effect around the market.

At ElliottWave Forecast, we believe the market is ruled by technical aspect and the news is an after-fact event to drive the market into the pre-determined direction. Therefore, understanding the Nature of the Market is key for traders to stay in the right side and follow a clear path which have nothing to do with Fundamentals or events.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Roaring Stock Market Rally Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

Stocks have been under selling pressure for the lst 8 weeks and yet the indices continue to be above the key support levels. By most measures the U.S. economy is in excellent health. Yet stocks are sinking, yields on corporate bonds are rising and commodity prices are tumbling—all typical precursors of a slowdown or recession. There are a few reasons which we can immediately forsee. First, while the U.S. is cruising a wave of fiscal stimulus, growth in the rest of the world is slowing. That’s creating problems for companies that do export business. Second, FED is set on a rigid path of raising rates, tightening conditions and reducing balance sheet.

Given the simulataneous actions of ECB and BoJ, we believe has fared way beyond what could have been a much sharper decline. However we are just about 15% from the highs seen this year.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

When Stock Market Computer Herds Hit Exits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Doug_Wakefield

"In a 2010 study of the 2010 Flash Crash, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission  found that high frequency traders substantially increased volatility during the event and accelerated the crash...The Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the stock regulator in Australia, found in a 2012 study that during volatile markets high frequency traders reduce their liquidity supply and increase their liquidity demands....The Bank of Int'l Settlements looked at foreign exchange markets and concluded in a 2011 study that high frequency traders exacerbate volatility in stressed markets... The UK Gov't Office for Science published a large 2012 study of capital markets around the world and concluded that HFT/AT may cause instabilities in financial markets in specific circumstances.... High Frequency Trading: A Bibliography of Evidence -Based Research, March 2015

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Stock Market Retests October 2018 Bottom. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As per our recent market studies, we said that the stock market would probably bounce and then pullback. Sometimes that pullback leads to a marginal high (vs. the initial low), sometimes it leads to an exact retest, and sometimes it leads to a marginal low (vs. the initial low).

The stock market has made such a retest.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Return of Stock, Oil and Forex Markets Volatility / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

Market volatility is back. Forex markets have seen whipsaws as the dollar index tries to price in a weakening US economy and a FED which is raising rates. Stocks have suffered a series of pullbacks this fall that have chipped away at much of their 2018 gains. Downbeat forecasts from former market leaders such as Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. have raised questions over whether the past year’s gains can be justified. Adding to those worries, investors are already expecting a broader slowdown in corporate earnings growth as rising rates and a stronger dollar take a greater toll on profits.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Is A Sharp Stock Market Crash Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Harry_Dent

I’ve warned for years, and with increasing frequency of late, that the first crash when a major stock bubble of this magnitude finally tops is 42% in the first 2.6 months.

That’s the average of seven bubble crashes in the last century.

The 1929 crash started off with a 49% crash in just over two months – the most extreme.

Look at this correction thus far, compared to 1929 for the Dow…

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Stock Market Buy the Dip is Dead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Here’s today’s big headline from Bloomberg, one that really caught my attention.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Stock Market Going Sideways - Which Direction is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday's trading session was mixed, as investors continued to hesitate following the recent decline. The S&P 500 index extends its month-long fluctuations along the level of 2,700. Is this some medium-term bottoming pattern?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and +0.5% on Friday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors continued to hesitate following last week's sell-off. The S&P 500 index remains above 2,700 mark after bouncing off the support level on Wednesday-Thursday. The index was 11.5% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 three weeks ago. And now it trades 7.0% below the all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% on Friday.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Technical Analysis Points to DOW 30k Next Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

An incredible really/breakout pattern is setting up in the US Stock Market and US Indexes currently that many traders/investors may not be paying attention to.  This is such an incredible opportunity for traders, we are alerting you to this setup and what we expect to be the outcome based on our proprietary predictive price modeling and analysis tools.

Almost without fail, the end of each year experiences a “Christmas Rally” that results in a moderate bullish price bias for most of the 4th quarter.  Over the past 17 years, 76.47% of each Q4 period resulted in an average +1049.85 pts in the YM (Dow Futures Contract).  Only 23.59% of the time did the YM decline on an average of about -1039.75 pts.  This data helps us to understand that downside price rotation in the Q4 (Christmas Rally months) is possible, but unlikely by a 4:1 ratio.  It also helps us to understand that our expectations of a massive price rally, much greater than the average +1049 pts, may be a very big play for traders.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Will We See A 30% Stock Market Correction Due To A Trump Impeachment? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

If you've been following my analysis of the S&P 500 through the years, you know that we have called the stock market rather well. In fact, we called for the rally to 2100 in 2015, and then expected a pullback from 2100 to the 1800 region as we came into 2016. However, unlike most others at the time, we expected that pullback would set us up for a 40%+ rally in the overall index before we saw a 20-30% correction. In fact, we were calling for a “global melt-up” at the time.

And, for those that remember back to November of 2016, when everyone and their mother was certain the market was going to crash if Trump won the election, we staunchly stuck to our guns and noted that we expected the market to rally strongly “no matter who was elected to office.” And that is exactly what we got, despite the common expectation of a market crash if Trump was elected.

Monday, November 19, 2018

The Power of the Dow Jones Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: readtheticker

Once again the data confirms cycles exists in the market. Value and other fundamental investors must concede cycles are in the stock market. [You can learn more about our Hurst Cycle tools here].
Previous Post Kitchin Cycle warned of market volatility

In the past this blog has posted the chart below, the Kitchin cycle or 900 periods, and you can see its success.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Stock Market Consolidating in a Downtrend  / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish but correcting within that long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend –  bearish correction which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, November 18, 2018

The Time to Prepare For the Next Financial Crisis is NOW / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018

By: Graham_Summers

Global growth is officially dead.

The markets picked up on this first, with Copper, Lumber, Industrial Metals and other economically sensitive asset classes collapsing starting in May.