Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Crude Oil, US GDP - You Thought The Saudis Were Kidding? / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There are many things I don’t understand these days, and some are undoubtedly due to the limits of my brain power. But at the same time some are not. I’m the kind of person who can no longer believe that anyone would get excited over a 5% American GDP growth number. Not even with any other details thrown in, just simply a print like that. It’s so completely out of left field and out of proportion that you would think by now at least a few more people understand what’s really going on.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Bank Capital Punishment and Other Nostrums / Economics / Credit Crisis 2014
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Bankers — facing a barrage of new capital requirements, regulations and investigations — must feel as if they are targets of a witch hunt. Well, if the truth be told, they are. Indeed, it’s gotten so bad that the Dutch authorities, who were clueless before the crisis, have put the sinners (read: bankers) on public display and forced them to repeat the following: “I swear that I will endeavor to maintain and promote confidence in the financial sector…. so help me God.” So, there you have it, so help me God.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
U.S. Economic GDP Growth Revised Higher to 5% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at an astounding +4.96% annualized rate, up an additional +1.07% from their prior estimate for the 3rd quarter and now up +0.37% from the already very healthy 4.59% annualized growth rate registered during the second quarter.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Jaguar Inflation - A Layman's Explanation of Government Intervention / Economics / Inflation
By: EWI
I am tired of hearing people insist that the Fed can expand credit all it wants. Sometimes an analogy clarifies a subject, so let's try one.
It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing Jaguar automobiles and providing them to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating Jaguar plants all over the country, subsidizing production with tax money. To everyone's delight, it offers these luxury cars for sale at 50 percent off the old price. People flock to the showrooms and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the government cuts the price in half again. More people rush in and buy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Will the Malaysian Economy Risk another Financial Crisis in 2015? / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
If any of you can remember for the past few months our government has been engaging on a propaganda spree claiming that our economy is doing excellent and our budget deficit is on track hitting the 3% target. In addition it is also reported that our household sector is supported by sustained income growth and hence consumption. Our high level of international reserves, current account surplus, resilient domestic financial system and low level of external debt helps reinforce the strength of our economy. Bank Negara even forecast a GDP growth between 5.0 to 5.5% for fiscal 2015? Is our economy really that resilient and solid? This article aims to dissect the reported facts above and also at the same time gauge the performance of the Malaysian economy.
Monday, December 22, 2014
The Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
― Oscar Wilde, The Picture of Dorian Gray“There is a current set of delusions that is powerful and dangerous: that monetary debasement can be infinitely pursued without consequences; that the financial system is now solid and sound; that the low volatility and high prices of stocks, high-end real estate and bonds are real; that bonds are a safe haven; and that large financial institutions which get into trouble in the future can be unwound in a much safer way than they could be in 2008."
-Paul Singer
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2014
Really, Greece Debt Crisis Again? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Rubino
The Greek financial/political crisis is becoming an annual event. For a sense of just how long this unfortunate little country has been struggling to survive under the relative sound money regime of the eurozone, here’s a Greek Crisis Timeline that CNN published in 2011. Even back then the pattern of near-collapse followed by temporary respite had been repeating for seven years.
Sunday, December 21, 2014
The Social Function of Economic Inequality / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Mark Tovey writes: The unhampered market creates economic inequality. Free marketeers tend to concede this fact as an unfortunate defect in an otherwise laudable system. F.A. Hayek, however, in a chapter from The Constitution of Liberty, argued that inequality is fundamental to a society's progress. Hayek explained how, by purchasing luxuries unimaginable to the average man, the rich unwittingly perform a vital public service. Indeed so fundamental is inequality to economic progress that egalitarian societies, Hayek concluded, would be faced with no choice but to deliberately re-inflict upon themselves the very class systems they had sought to escape, should they wish to achieve well-directed economic advancement.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
An Unorthodox Solution to the World’s Economic Problems / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
We currently face a monumental dilemma. How do we extract ourselves from all this excessive debt without crashing the world economy? There is a solution which is totally counterintuitive: print even more money. In other words, to get out of the deep, deep hole we are in, dig even deeper.
It is called the Chicago plan. With a stroke of a pen, money would be substituted for debt, without the negative consequences of printing money. Banking would be restructured so that it never again leads to boom and bust cycles, and most debt, public and private, could be cancelled. It’s basically a “one time” get out of jail card for the world economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Crude Oil Price Crash, U.S. Employment and Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as we try to peer into the future and think about how 2015 will unfold. In forecasting US growth, I wrote that we really need to understand the relationships between the boom in energy production on the one hand and employment and overall growth in the US on the other. The old saw that falling oil prices are like a tax cut and are thus a net benefit to the US economy and consumers is not altogether clear to me. I certainly hope the net effect will be positive, but hope is not a realistic basis for a forecast. Let’s go back to two paragraphs I wrote last week:
Monday, December 15, 2014
Deflation or Inflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
At the prodding of an NFTRH subscriber who was combing through old issues, I went back and read NFTRH 7, from November of 2008 and was struck by how things have really not changed in the last 6 years of non-stop inflationary policy; they have intensified and gone global, but the mechanics have not changed.
The current inflation operation is failing world-wide, with the US holding out for now. As pertains to the gold and gold mining case mentioned in the article below (as we got hyper bullish in Q4 2008), things are moving much more slowly now. The current backdrop is a different animal than the 2008 deflationary impulse, but its potential is to much more wide-ranging and ultimately destructive.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Deflation Is Winning, and Central Banks are Running Scared / Economics / Deflation
By: Adam_Taggart
Remember in the early part of the last decade, long before he was appointed the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke penned an article that caught widespread public attention entitled, "Deflation: It Can't Happen Here" ?
Bernanke was referring to the deflationary pressures Japan had been dealing with for more than a decade. In the article, Bernanke laid out a game plan for how the Fed would respond if the US ever faced deflationary pressures. His miracle antidote for battling deflation? Printing money. Lots of it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Can The Euro Zone Match China’s Growth Rate in 2015? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
Brett Chatz writes: The ECB is preparing to tackle stubbornly low inflation as the Euro Zone faces mounting challenges moving into 2015.When the European Central Bank met recently, Mario Draghi emphasised precisely how important it is for the ECB to keep inflation under control. However, the last time the ECB achieved its inflation target was over two years ago. Since then, inflation has been dropping at a steady pace and now stands at close to 0. To combat historically low inflation across the Eurozone, Draghi wants to take aggressive steps by way of a quantitative easing policy. The measures likely to be taken by the European Central Bank will not be dissimilar to the QE policies adopted by the Fed in the US. These will include wide-ranging bond purchases to increase the money supply to accelerate economic growth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
U.S. Economy Data Driven or Driven Data / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Peter_Schiff
There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it's much easier to grab a set of convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you choose to look at and which you choose to ignore.
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
How to Profit from Europe's Secret Economic "Plan B" / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: As the European Union debates yet a third bailout for Greece, revelations about secret plans by some Eurozone members tell an even more intriguing story.
During the depths of the European sovereign crisis, when Greece was inches from exiting the zone, others chose to not sit idly by.
Instead, two member nations were surreptitiously preparing for a possible Eurozone breakup.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
U.S. Economy Post-‘Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_Tanashian
Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates. Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn?
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Does Europe Have Demand Deficiency Syndrome? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Frank_Shostak
In his Financial Times article “The curse of weak global demand,” Martin Wolf writes that today’s most important economic illness is chronic demand deficiency syndrome. Wolf argues that despite massive monetary pumping by the central banks of the US and the EMU, and the policy of lowering interest rates to around zero, both the US and the EMU, economies have continued to struggle.
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Why the US Economy Is Temporarily Outperforming, In Two Charts / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Today’s US employment report was the best in years. 300,000+ new jobs, rising wages, fewer people dropping out of the workforce, the whole package. Very hopeful. And also curious, since the rest of the world seems to be moving in the other direction. Consider:
Friday, December 05, 2014
Central Banks Battling Deflation at Any Cost / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Jared Dillian writes: When I was in junior high, my friend Scott had this Billy Crystal tape that we passed back and forth to each other. I still like Billy Crystal, but let’s just say he was truly hilarious when I was 13 back in 1987.
He had this routine about old codgers who used to tell you how hard life was in the old days.
“We had no air…” he’d say, in an old man voice. “No food. We ate wool coats and we were happy.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 29, 2014
US Unemployment At Lowest Rate Since 2009 / Economics / Unemployment
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
After painstaking growth, complaints of padded figures, and fears of underemployment among those lucky enough to have jobs, America finally sees its national unemployment rates in the 5.2-5.5% range. At this level, the Federal Reserve considers the market to represent full employment, with very nearly all of those actively desiring employment working or reasonably able to find work. An added bonus for government forecasters is that this rate of improvement is in keeping with their predictions, but comes a full quarter early.Read full article... Read full article...