Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, October 09, 2014
It’s Inflation All the Way, Baby! / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
The title’s quote is one of many eminently quotable messages I had the pleasure of receiving over a few years of contact with a late, great and a very interesting man* named Jonathan Auerbach, who headed a unique specialty (emerging and frontier markets) brokerage in NYC called Auerbach Grayson.
Jon was an honest and ethical man. He was also a gold bug (in that descriptor’s highest form) who innately understood the Kabuki Dance that has been ongoing by monetary authorities since the ‘Age of Inflation onDemand‘ (what guest poster Bruno de Landevoisin calls the Monetized New Millenium) started its most intense and bald faced phase in 2000.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
The Truth About Economic Boom And Bust Cycles - Video / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Claudio Grass writes: Most believe that expansionary monetary policy helps ease crises. Austrian School economists argue that central banks don't help in smoothing the amplitude of the cycles, but rather are the cause of cycles. In this microdocumentary video, we look back at four major busts in the last 100 years and explain how central banks created them. We also clarify why we believe the next bust is just around the corner. This video will not explain the mainstream view, but rather the view of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT).
Thursday, October 09, 2014
Youth Unemployment - The Disgrace of Sacrificing a Generation / Economics / Unemployment
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Would you like to know how bankrupt our societies are? Financially AND morally? Before you say yes, please do acknowledge that you too ar eparty to the bankruptcy. Even if you have means, or you have no debt, or you’re under 25, you’re still letting it happen. And you may have tons of reasons or excuses for that, but you’re still letting it happen.
Our financial and moral bankruptcy shows – arguably – nowhere better than in the way we treat our children. A favorite theme of mine is that any parent you ask will swear to God and cross and hope to die that they love their kids to death, but the facts say otherwise. We only love them as far as the tips of our noses, or as far as the curb. That means you too.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Europe’s Economic Austerity, You Must Be Kidding / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The leading political lights in Europe -- Messrs. Hollande, Valls and Macron in France and Mr. Renzi in Italy -- are raising a big stink about fiscal austerity. They don't like it. And now Greece has jumped on the anti-austerity bandwagon. The pols have plenty of company, too. Yes, they can trot out a host of economists -- from Nobelist Krugman on down -- to carry their water.
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Wednesday, October 08, 2014
The European Financial Crisis Is Going Global – and We're Along for the Ride / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: After printing $4 trillion since 2008, we've little to show for it.
Endless debates about the effectiveness of QE, or its lack thereof, haven't spawned better decisions, especially in Europe. Think periphery nations like Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy.
Better yet, take a look at the stock market, where worries about Europe's economy rattled investors. It's certainly not a pretty picture...
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Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Germany’s Bad Economic Numbers Are Great News For All Of Us / Economics / Germany
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Something’s happening in Europe that I would like to cheer and encourage at the top of my lungs. While only yesterday, most European leaders, the ECB and the IMF were busy chiding Germany for not lowering taxes or increasing government investment in its economy, today’s release of German economic data should either shut them up or drastically change their tune.
Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Inflation is Not the Only Way Easy Money Destroys Wealth / Economics / Inflation
By: Frank_Shostak
The US Federal Reserve can keep stimulating the US economy because inflation is posing little threat, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kocherlakota said. “I am expecting an inflation rate to run below two percent for the next four years, through 2018,” he said. “That means there is more room for monetary policy to be helpful in terms of … boosting demand without running up against generating too much inflation.”
The yearly rate of growth of the official consumer price index (CPI) stood at 1.7 percent in August against two percent in July. According to our estimate, the yearly rate of growth of the CPI could close at 1.4 percent by December. By December next year we forecast the yearly rate of growth of 0.6 percent.
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Sunday, October 05, 2014
Grandma Yellen And The Economic Mushroom Cloud On The Horizon / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Caldaro
Weekend. Saturday. Beautiful Indian summer imitation where I’m presently located in western Europe. Good time to start out with an empty sheet of text file (for lack of a better term), and stream some consciousness.
Most people must have figured out that things in the economic sphere haven’t gotten any quieter lately. That’s at least something. Stock exchanges in the developed world jumped from a -1%+ loss one day to a 1%+ gain the next. Volatility, nerves, and probably ritalin, have returned. You have to wonder what that means in markets reigned supreme by high-frequency robot traders and central banks, but nevertheless, the public perception remains. And perception is key.
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Thursday, October 02, 2014
Lagarde Admits Europe Facing Serious Crisis on the Horizon / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bloomberg
In an interview with Bloomberg's Tom Keene at the International Monetary Fund's Headquarters in Washington D.C., IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the world still faces serious clouds on the horizon., "We are facing serious clouds on the horizon; we have a lot of uncertainty...we are revising potential growth." Lagarde also said:
Thursday, October 02, 2014
Europe Is Crumbling Into Economic Collapse / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For me, the quote of the day is this one: “If there’s a periphery of the eurozone’s periphery, that’s Naples.”. The city of Napoli hosts ECB boss Mario Draghi and the heads of Europe’s central banks this week in some very posh former Bourbon family royal palace, and the contradictions involved couldn’t be more striking.
Napoli is home to an immense amount of poverty and misery, and the advent of the EU and the euro has done absolutely nothing to make life in the city any better. Quite the contrary. And there’s not a single thing in sight that holds any promise of alleviating the deepening Italian downfall. Therefore things can, and will, only get worse from here.
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Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Europe Teetering the Ddge of a "Japan-style" Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a "Japan-style" deflation. Here's our take on it.
It's happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that's akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: "deflation."
And it's not just "deflation." You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,
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Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Economists Economic Atonement / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
This Friday is Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated in an unjust action. And while not all economists are Jewish, Gene Epstein the economics editor at Barron's, offered his thoughts on how this applies to the group.
Monday, September 29, 2014
The Japanese Deflation Myth and the Yen’s Slump / Economics / Japan Economy
By: MISES
Brendan Brown writes: The slide of the yen since late summer has brought it to a level some 40 percent lower against the euro and US dollar than just two years go. Yet still Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda warn that they have not won the battle against deflation. That caution is absurd — all the more so in view of the fact that there was no deflation in the first place.
Friday, September 26, 2014
Where’s the Economic Growth? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In 1633 Galileo Galilei, then an old man, was tried and convicted by the Catholic Church of the heresy of believing that the earth revolved around the sun. He recanted and was forced into house arrest for the rest of his life, until 1642. Yet “The moment he [Galileo] was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, Eppur si muove, that is, still it moves, meaning the earth” (Giuseppe Baretti in his book the The Italian Library, written in 1757).
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
10 Things That Affect Your Purchasing Power / Economics / Inflation
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: This might be considered “wonkish,” but it tells the story of how middle-class purchasing power has suffered since 2007.
Recently, the Federal Reserve released the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). This tri-annual survey is a treasure trove of information that provides a snapshot into the financial life of the median American in inflation-adjusted 2013 dollars. Notice that I said “median” and not “average”… that’s important.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
The Poison Eating at the Heart of Macroeconomics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Mario Draghi, in one of his latest speeches, prodded governments to ease austerity to spur aggregate demand (an oxymoron). The IMF director, Christine Lagarde, recently urged the ECB to continue its easy monetary policy until aggregate demand picks up. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, has, for years, suggested government actions to boost aggregate demand. He has in turn lectured Germany, Japan, and China on the need to encourage demand. It is sad that such economic nonsense is constantly promoted by some of the world’s most influential people, including many leading economists, and that this continues to serve as the foundation of much of contemporary macroeconomic theory.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Why Stalling Loans in Our Banking Economy is a Good Thing / Economics / Credit Crisis 2014
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: Part of the story about subprime mortgages during the U.S. banking economy of the 1990s and 2000s centers on the Community Reinvestment Act — through which Congress required lending institutions lend more in poor neighborhoods.
There is a question as to how much this drove lenders to extend credit to people who couldn’t afford it.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Regime Uncertainty Weighs on U.S. Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Shortly after the current Great Recession started, I wrote a Globe Asia column, “A Great Depression?” (December 2008). In it, I stressed the findings contained in Robert Higgs’ important book Depression, War and Cold War: Studies in Political Economy (Oxford University Press, 2006). Higgs concluded that, because of regime uncertainty, investors were afraid to commit funds to new projects. They simply didn’t know what President Roosevelt and the New Dealers would do next.
Sunday, September 21, 2014
Will the U.S. Economy Go Into Hibernation, Again? / Economics / US Economy
By: Investment_U
Rachel Gearhart writes: The impact of this year’s bitter winter on the economy can be seen in this week’s chart. The chart compares the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index for 2014 to the average of 2010-2013.
The index compares actual market data to market expectations.
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Wednesday, September 17, 2014
The Great Depression, World War II, And What They Really Mean / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
Nearly a century after the fact, the Great Depression remains THE object lesson for virtually every branch of economics. To monetarists the fact that the US money supply fell by nearly a third in the 1930s illustrates the need for a central bank to maintain steady money growth. To Keynesians the Depression’s depth and duration proved that capitalist systems are inherently unstable and need a big, powerful government to manage them. World War II, in this framework, saved the US economy from permanent 25% unemployment.