Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Deflating Housing and Credit Bubbles Will Lead to DisInflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
The BS from the BLS - 2,500,000 "Lost Jobs" and Counting
- Taking a Long-Term Perspective
- Leverage in Reverse Gear
- What's That Hissing Sound?
The official number for employment suggested a loss of 63,000 jobs. But could it have been more like 200,000? And I will make a case for 2,000,000 lost jobs last month. This week we will take a look at the confusing labor-market picture in the US. We will also look at the debate over the money supply. Is the Fed increasing the money supply at a reckless rate, fueling inflation fears down the road? All this and a lot more as we look at how the recession in affecting everyone and everything, from individuals to large businesses. (The letter will print a little long, but there are a lot of charts.)
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Post Bubble America Heading for Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Whitney
“Market conditions are the worst anyone in this industry can ever remember. I don't think anyone has a recollection of a total disappearance in liquidity...There are billion of dollars worth of assets out there for which there is just no market.” Alain Grisay, chief executive officer of London-based F&C Asset Management Plc; Bloomberg News
The hurricane that began with subprime mortgages, has swept through the credit markets wreaking havoc on municipal bonds, hedge funds, complex structured investments, and agency debt (Fannie Mae). Now the first gusts from the Force-5 gale are touching down in the real economy where the damage is expected to be widespread.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
US Dollar-Gold: A Perfect Hyper-Stagflationary Storm / Economics / Stagflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The title should really be “Psychology of 1000-20-100” to give respect to the major signpost price targets. The $1000 gold target is within reach. The $20 silver target has been breached. The $100 crude oil price has been breached. Before long, all three price levels will serve as support. When a gold target of $1000 was proposed three to four years ago, most people dominated (or bound) by conventional thinking dismissed such talk as silly, irresponsible, even ludicrous. Not any more! The same goes for silver and crude oil with their respective distant price targets, each attained. Profound market psychology is in the process of changing. Many new wrong analyses will come to the table, like so many casseroles containing rancid meat and rotten vegetables as ingredients. They will maintain that now these three goals have been met, the great sell off can begin. They will be dead wrong. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Eurozone Economy Heading for Hard Landing- Economic Forecast 2008 / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
Economic reality will likely prove forecasts of major international institutions about Europe's 2008 growth prospects wrong. So, let us first see what they think; then we will see what I think and why.
A number of major institutions have provided their 2008 Eurozone economic forecast. Interestingly, many of them just recently (December 2007) revised down their forecasts. Here is a quick survey: 2.1% by IMF – revised its 2008 growth forecast for the Eurozone down from 2.5%; 1.9% by OECD; 2.0% by ECB, the midpoint of their range, down from previous midpoint of 2.3%; 2.0% by EU Commission; 1.8% by ING Financial Markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Why the United States Will Go Into Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
If my email is anything to go by, there are a lot of worried and confused people out there. Basically most want to know why if the US economy is going to slide into recession. Of course it will. The question is when. I have to exercise caution here because I haven't had the time during the last couple of weeks to take a much closer look at the economic trends. Since Bush won the 2000 election the media has done nothing but report economic doom. For them, predicting a recession is bit like predicting rain a few weeks hence. They one will eventually develop, they just hope Bush is still president when this happens.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Kings of Denial: What Bush and Bernanke are NOT telling you about the Economy ... / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Never underestimate the capacity of politicians and bureaucrats to trap themselves into a pattern of denial.
That's what Fed Chairman Greenspan did in the early 2000s, even while he was helping to create the greatest housing bubble of all time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Stagflation and the Fed- Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! / Economics / Stagflation
By: John_Mauldin
- How Do You Spell Stagflation?
- Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation?
- The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
- Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead!
- Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side
This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 29, 2008
Tax Rebate 2008 - United States Congress Resorts to Trickle-Up Irrationality / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Andy_Sutton
The Roman poet Juvenal used the term ‘bread and circuses' to characterize palliative measures taken by the imperial Roman government to lure the populace into a state of blissful ignorance. This blissful ignorance comes at the expense of the solution of long-term societal problems, and arguably was a significant component of the end of the Empire.
Charles Fourier described his economic pinnacle a bit differently, opining that the oceans would turn to lemonade and roasted chickens would fly into our mouths. He used this amazing statement to describe a utopian socialism where the government was the ultimate provider.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 28, 2008
What if Conventional Wisdom On Economic Growth and Consumer Spending Is Wrong? / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
There it was, right in the middle of the front page of yesterday's Wall Street Journal about four paragraphs down in the lead story titled " Decline in Home Prices Accelerates " - more evidence that the economy as we know it could be fundamentally flawed, yet you'd never get a hint of that even from reading one of the the world's finest business publication.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 28, 2008
US Money Supply Growth? Look to China / Economics / Money Supply
By: Chris_Galakoutis
Like the earmark hidden so deep inside a new appropriations bill committee report that it takes a magnifying glass to find, so too the lengths we apparently need to go in figuring out the degree of money supply growth in the US.
But is it really such a mystery?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Bernanke's Mission Impossible- To Boost the Economy To Win the Election / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ben Bernanke's Mission Impossible is to deliver a favorable economic climate conducive towards a Republican election victory in November 2008,
The mission requires the US Fed to -
- abandon the defense of the dollar,
- to abandon the fight against inflation,
- to prop up the ailing banking system by as much money as is required (money supply),
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
How to Grow Your Investments in an Inflationary Environment / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: I got my first taste of inflation in 1973, shortly after I got my driver's license.
Gasoline was 25 cents a gallon when I first started driving, and I was busy enjoying the freedom and independence that an automobile gives a teenage boy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
America Saves Week Feb 24th to March 2nd - Build Wealth Not Debt! / Economics / US Debt
By: Wall_Street_Weather
While paging through the local paper yesterday, I spotted a bank ad touting a 48 month Certificate of Deposit for 3.5% APY. The barely legible print at the bottom of the ad said that the CD requires a $10,000 minimum of new money to the bank. Wow, I bet people will be standing in line for the bank to open this morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
US Economic Boom and Busts / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The US Economy: Been there before - There are times when in order to find out where we are we need to discover how we got there. And this is certainly the case with economies, and the US economy is no exception. This is why economic lessons are vitally important and why they need to be constantly aired lest the public be led astray by demagogues and economic illiterates. (Think Obama and Hillary Clinton). One of the most important lessons that was largely disregarded in the 1990s is that booms are always followed by busts. (The dishonest US mainstream media's response to this fact is to blame recessions on Republicans and always credit Democrats with the good times).Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 24, 2008
US Recession and Mega Profit Opportunities / Economics / Recession
By: Money_and_Markets
The Big Picture - Martin Weiss writes: With so much happening so quickly, I know it's sometimes hard to set aside a quiet time to think.
But this weekend I want the two of us to focus on the big picture ... find some clarity in these confusing times ... and chat about where we're headed from here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 23, 2008
US Fed's Up Beat Forecasts on Pessimistic Economic Growth Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- The Muddle Through Fed
- Risks to the Downside
- Consumers Gone Wild
- Leaving the Ballpark After All these Years
This week the Fed offered us their forecasts for 2008-10 for the economy, inflation and employment. We will look at some of the details which I think will be of interest. Then we glance at some data on the savings rate which suggests consumer spending may be in for more of a challenge than many think. There is a lot of ground to cover.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 23, 2008
US Heading for 1970's Style Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On Thursday, February 21, articles about the possibility of stagflation occurred in both The New York Times ( That '70s Look: Stagflation ) and The Wall Street Journal ( Fears of Stagflation Return As Price Increases Gain Pace ). Are we about to be subjected to a rerun of "That '70s Show"? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 22, 2008
Inflation: America 's Greatest Export / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Unfortunately one of the few things still made in America is inflation. In fact, it now ranks as our greatest export.
A significant by-product of the current global economic system, wherein Americans spend money they do not earn to buy foreign products that they do not make, is that trillions of dollars are now parked in foreign banks just looking for somewhere to go.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 22, 2008
Inflation- The Elephant in the Room / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
"The elephant in the room" ... I love that expression. After all, my two little girls enjoy watching the elephants at Lion Country Safari, and they'd love to see 'em show up in the living room.
But right now, the real five-ton elephant in the room is inflation. And no one at the Federal Reserve really seems to want to confront it!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
US Imports Inflation From China - Use Agri-Foods to Protect Your Wealth! / Economics / Inflation
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Waving a magic wand and making speeches does not prevent reality from creeping into statistics. Per the FRB-Cleveland, the U.S. inflation trend is as shown in the following table.Read full article... Read full article...