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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Liquidity to drive global Bull Markets in 2007 / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Clif_Droke

It may not be apparent yet, but the story of the next six months will be the improvement in monetary liquidity and the subsequent bull market in stocks that accompanies it.

The previous two years were notable for the decline in monetary liquidity as shown in the Federal Reserve money supply statistics.  It almost seemed that the Fed wanted to bring the economy to the very brink of recession before priming the credit pump once again at the last possible minute. The Fed very nearly succeeded in bringing about a recession but thankfully this threat has now been averted. Listening to some mainstream economists and financial analysts talk, one gets the impression that the threat of a further economic slowdown is still a very real one.  But such is not the case, a point we'll try to make in this commentary.  Indeed, monetary liquidity hasn't looked this good in years.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

State of the Union - THE UNITED STATES IS INSOLVENT / Economics / US Debt

By: Dr_Martenson

Prepare to be shocked.

The US is insolvent. There is simply no way for our national bills to be paid under current levels of taxation and promised benefits. Our federal deficits alone now total more than 400% of GDP.

That is the conclusion of a recent Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial Report of the United States Government that was quietly slipped out on a Friday (12/15/06), deep in the holiday season, with little fanfare. Sometimes I wonder why the Treasury Department doesn't just pay somebody to come in at 4:30 am Christmas morning to release the report. Additionally, I've yet to read a single account of this report in any of the major news media outlets but that is another matter.

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Economics

Friday, January 19, 2007

The liquidity bubble, from real estate to bonds to stocks... / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Adrian_Ash

Fancy a St.Tropez villa with its own infinity pool? Keep an eye on the junk bond market...

THE REAL ESTATE AGENT blinked into the warm winter sunshine.

   "In 34 years in the St.Tropez market I've never known anything like it," he smiled.

   Interviewed for British television, the realtor looked every inch 'old money'. But he  didn't mind the nouveau riche of bonus-rich bankers and traders now driving property prices higher in the South of France.

   Every villa he showed to the film crew came with an infinity pool and a view to die for. None of them cost less than $3 million. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

UK inflation hits the Bank of England's 3% CPI limit / Economics / Strategic News

By: Sarah_Jones

The UK inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hit the upper limit of 3% today. The highest level in over a decade supports the Bank of England's surprise decision to raise interest rates last week to 5.25% from 5%. (Bank of England raises UK interest rates to 5.25%, catching the financial markets off guard )

UK inflation hits the Bank of Englands 3% CPI limit

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Economics

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Never Mind the Price Tag, - Gap between the haves and haves nots widens - Part 1 / Economics / Articles

By: Adrian_Ash

The gap between the 'haves' and 'have-yachts' keeps growing with the stock market. Watch out for that iceberg!

MORE THAN 1,000 YACHTS went on display last week at the New York National Boat Show. They included the $1.1 million Cruisers Yacht 520 Express.

   But that's peanuts compared with the Sunseeker Trideck, now on sale in Mayfair, London. Complete with a dining table made of American black walnut that seats twelve, it weighs more than 150 tonnes and costs $16 million.
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Economics

Friday, January 05, 2007

U.S. economy is fizzling whilst Stock Markets are sizzling ! / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Money_and_Markets

You know what I think of when I look at the U.S. markets right now? The Charles Dickens' masterpiece, A Tale of Two Cities . Here's why ... For many parts of the “real” U.S. economy — America's factories, employers, shopping malls, and homeowners — it's looking like the worst of times.

Signs of an economic slowdown are everywhere:

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Economics

Monday, December 18, 2006

Peak Debt - US Debt & GDP Growth / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Jas_Jain

I am no expert on Peak Oil, but Peak Oil is not the urgent problem that the world faces, economically, or politically. The problems of the supply-demand of oil will play out over a longer period and its effects would be spread over a longer period of time than that of the Peak Debt, which are lot more immediate. As a matter of fact, it has been the rapidly rising debt (racing towards the peak), which in turn has "fueled" a worldwide construction boom, that has resulted in the high prices for oil over the past 4 years and not the realization of the problem of Peak Oil. During the coming global depression, within this decade, the price of crude oil should fall below $25 a barrel and there will be glut due to sharply falling demand. I realize that these are not the concerns that people have today as long as the American consumer keeps borrowing. But, for how long?
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Economics

Friday, December 15, 2006

Three Asian Mega-Trends ! / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Money_and_Markets

I've spent the last 21 days traveling throughout Hong Kong, Tokyo, Shanghai, Singapore, Shekou, Bangkok, Macau, and Shenzhen. My goal: Seeking out the very best investment opportunities. It's been a long and exhausting trip. But I've found dozens of fast-growing businesses with skyrocketing profits. In fact, my biggest problem is that I have to narrow down this big platter of opportunities to just the few very best ideas.
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Economics

Thursday, December 14, 2006

US Employment and Recessions (Short and Sweet'): A Picture Worth Thousand Words / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Jas_Jain

When Wall Street and Federal Reserve economists point to the current employment growth as a sign of the economy's health, over the next few quarters, i.e., a sign of "soft landing," they are lying because employment keeps growing until the economy is in a recession already. Fig. 1 says it all.

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Economics

Thursday, December 14, 2006

US Retail sales gain by a surprising 1% , reducing expectations of an early Fed interest rate cut / Economics / Strategic News

By: Sarah_Jones

Two reports released on Wednesday showed retail sales surging in November by 1%, contrary to the expectations of a hard landing for the economy. The market had been expecting a rise of just 0.1%. Bonds immediately fell and the dollar strengthened on the news as the markets reevaluate the expectations of an early cut in US interest rates.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Gordon Browns Pre-budget report increases petrol by 1.25 a litre / Economics / Strategic News

By: Sarah_Jones

Gordon Brown presented his last pre-budget report before he is destined to takeover from Tony Blair as the next Prime Minister of the UK.

Gordon Browns Pre-budget report increases petrol by 1.25 a litre

He pledged increased expenditure on education and defense. Brown also reiterated that Britain had enjoyed the longest post-war period of continuous growth, now sustaining a record 38 quarters. Ten years ago Britain was 7th in the Group of Seven, bottom of the league for national income per head. In the last two years, Britain has been second only to the USA," he said. Brown also raised UK's growth forecast to 2.75 percent for 2006 and 3.25 percent for 2007.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Who owns the world ? Most of the wealth in the hands of 2% of the people / Economics / Strategic News

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst most of the worlds attention is focused on the GDP growth rates of China and India, a study published by the Helsinki-based World Institute for Development Economics Research (part of the United Nations University), reveals that the worlds wealth is heavily concentrated in North America, Europe and a handful of developed Pacific rim countries. With 2% of adults owning more than 50% of the worlds wealth.

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Economics

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Investing in Nigeria, potential opportunity for strong growth due to high oil revenues / Economics / Investing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Nigerian economy is expected to grow by 7.5% during 2006. With prospects of growth exceeding 7.5% for 2007 and 2008, as Nigeria continues to enjoy dividends from the high oil price and inward investment into the oil and support industries. The Nigerian government also makes strides towards ensuring power generation to feed the growing economic activity.

Investing in Nigeria, potential opportunity for strong growth due to high oil revenues

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Economics

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

US economy heads for a hard landing in 2007 / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economists and many market participants continue to mistakenly point to lagging indicators in support of economic growth during 2007 i.e. a panel of 50 economists in a survey released by the National Association for Business Economics predicted that the overall economy, as measured by the GDP, would expand by 2.5 percent in 2007. Unfortunately many of the indicators such as US unemployment hitting a low of 4.7% are lagging indicators. Virtually every recession during the past 50 years was preceded by a low jobless reading.

US economy heads for a hard landing in 2007

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Economics

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

The Costs & Benefits of Globalisation to the UK / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Sarah_Jones

Globalisation is a capitalist process that has taken off as a concept in the wake of the collapse of communism as a viable alternate form of economic organisation as we are increasingly been seen as living in the era of globalisation. Globalisation describes the increased mobility of goods, services, labour, technology and finance & capital throughout the world. Although globalisation is not a new development, its pace has increased with the advent of new technologies, especially in the area of telecommunications.

The Benefits and Costs of Globalisation to Britain

Examples of how globalisation effects Britain is in the current trend of UK business employing indian call centres for support & sales services, or for a clothing manufacturers to design its products in the UK, and make them in south-east Asia and then to sell them in north America.

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Economics

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Bird Flu (Avian Influenza) could cost the World Economy $5 trillion / Economics / Analysis & Strategy

By: Phillipa_Green

Although Bird flu is off the prime time news of late. Unfortunately the virus has not gone away and is gradually working its way around the world with ever wider outbreaks and human cases of infections continue to increase, with the ever present danger of a global pandemic.

Bird Flu Statistics - Jan 2004 to Sept 2006
Country
Human Cases
Deaths
China
21
14
Vietnam
93
43
Indonesia
67
51
Cambodia
6
6
Thailand
24
16
Djibouti
1
0
Azerbaijan
8
5
Iraq
3
2
Egypt
14
6
Turkey
12
4
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

China's currency reserves pass $1 trillion and likely to double to $2 trillion by 2010 / Economics / Strategic News

By: Nadeem_Walayat

China's currency reserves pass a record $1 trillion, and continue to grow at a rate of $20 billions per month. China's reserves have grown from 100billion in 1996 to $1 trillions today and are expected to double to $2 trillions by 2010. Now China accounts for almost 20% of the world's foreign exchange reserves, Japan being second with some $900 billions of reserves, also mostly in US dollars.

The reason for the growth in reserves is primarily due to the under valuation of the Yuan which in turn is contributing to the large trade deficit that the US is running.

China's currency reserves pass $1 trillion and likely to double to $2 trillion by 2010

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Economics

Sunday, November 05, 2006

UK Insolvency rise by 55% and on target to hit a record 100,000 for 2006 As interest rates are due to rise to 5% ! / Economics / UK Economy

By: Sarah_Jones

Last week, Government figures showed that a record 27,644 people went insolvent during the summer - more than 55% up on the same period last year and leaving the UK on target to hit 100,000 insolvencies in 2006 for the first time.

The figures sparked fears of dark times for retailers as debt ridden consumers are expected to tighten their belts in the run-up to Christmas. The seasonally adjusted personal insolvency increased 55.4 per cent on a year ago and 5.7 per on the previous quarter. Bankruptcies at 15,416, up 26.6 per cent compared with a year ago, but Individual Voluntary Arrangements soared to 12,228, up 117.9 per cent on last year and 9.8 per cent on the previous quarter. House repossessions are likely to exceed 12,000 this year and that 38 per cent of all bankrupts were now unemployed.

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Economics

Sunday, October 22, 2006

UK Interest Rates Forecast to rise much higher due to rising Inflation and high Money Supply Growth / Economics / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Interest are set to to rise to 5% in November 2006, some market commentators are already seeing this as a potential peak despite REAL UK interest rates being at historic lows.

The spread between the base rate (4.75%) and RPI (3.6%), is currently at 1.3%, or marginally higher than the low set in 2003 of 1.1%, which preceded a rise in interest rates from 3.5% to 4.75%. This took the spread to 2%, since that time, RPI has risen and interest rates fell to 4.5%. This puts the UK under similar interest rate hike pressures as during the start of the rate hikes in 2003.

UK Interest Rates Forecast to rise a Much Higher due to rising inflation and High Money Supply Growth

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Economics

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Sharp fall in US Wholesale Inflation whilst Core inflation rises strongly / Economics / Strategic News

By: Sarah_Jones

US Wholesale inflation fell by the largest amount in more than three years in September 06, as a record drop in the cost of gasoline offset rising prices in a number of other areas. The U.S. Labour Department reported that wholesale prices overall fell 1.3 per cent last month, nearly double the decline that analysts had been expecting. Gasoline prices plummeted 22.2 per cent, the biggest one-month decrease on record. But at the same time core inflation rose strongly by 0.6%.

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