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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, June 28, 2010

Double Dip Economic Recession, This Chart Say's Its Guaranteed! / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: JD_Rosendahl

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith all the incessant analysis from economists, politicians, and bureaucrats of this nascent recovery sprouting wings, there is one great and simple chart that's screaming a "Double Dip" is guaranteed:  See the weekly chart of the $BDI below.

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Economics

Monday, June 28, 2010

More Keynesian Clowns With Priming the Economic Pump Nonsense / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNearly every day, more Keynesian and Monetarist clowns show up trumpeting the benefits of more government spending and more financial debt.

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Economics

Monday, June 28, 2010

Can Gold Cause the Boom-Bust Cycle? / Economics / Business Cycles

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt the Mises Academy we are just wrapping up the inaugural class, on the Austrian theory of the business cycle. During the class, one issue that came up repeatedly was whether the Mises/Hayek story of the trade cycle could occur on a completely free market, using gold as money and a banking system that operated on 100 percent reserves.

As any good (and annoying) teacher would, I avoided giving a definitive answer one way or the other. Instead, I tried to give the best possible case for each answer, to prod the students to think it through for themselves. In this article, I summarize how even a Rothbardian could plausibly answer this question either in the affirmative or the negative.

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Economics

Monday, June 28, 2010

U.S. Economy Mid Year Economic Forecast 2010 / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Most textbook economists say that the U.S. economy is engaged in a broad-based recovery. But while there's a consensus that there's no "double-dip" recession on the horizon, the evidence suggests the nation's economy is headed for a slowdown in the second half of 2010.

The reason: In a market that derives 70% of its growth from consumer spending, the last half of this year will be all about those consumers - and about the economy's inability to generate enough jobs to keep the nation's cash registers ringing.

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Economics

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Terms of Trade Superiority at Forecasting U.S. Real GDP! / Economics / US Economy

By: Francois_Soto

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleECRI Weekly LEI Issue
Many market participants are debating whether or not a double dip recession will occur within the next quarters. As we are writing our report, ECRI Weekly LEI fell quickly to 122.5 points from 134.7 in April. This indicator did a good job leading U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 6 months over the last two decades. However, ECRI Weekly LEI recently became quite unreliable as it increased up to 25% Y/Y in April, a level consistent with an unrealistic 8% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y! You can notice the problem on the left chart below.

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Economics

Saturday, June 26, 2010

The Big Picture Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Bryan_Rich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week, I laid out some important historical context for establishing a solid perspective on the big picture — a broad view of where the global economy stands and what we should expect going forward.

Today, I’d like to continue with the second part of my analysis.

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Economics

Saturday, June 26, 2010

US Money Supply Plunges At 1930's Pace And Housing Index Dives / Economics / Deflation

By: Sol_Palha

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn't." ~ Erica Jong

The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history. The M3 figures - which include broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by British and European monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance - began shrinking last summer. The pace has since quickened.

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Economics

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Increasing Risk of Double Dip Recession as Leading Economic Indicators Start to Turn / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Risk of Recession
The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn
Terms of Trade and US Real GDP
Bernanke at the Crossroads

We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.

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Economics

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Industrial Production, Commodity Prices, and Inflation / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dhaval_Shah

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at Industrial Production figures from the US, EU, Japan and China, and then we take a look at where commodities are tracking, before reviewing the inflation results out over the week from the US and EU. Then we finish up with a review of the monetary policy decisions from Japan, Switzerland, and Mexico. The analysis echoes some of the comments made in the economic calendar for the week just past.

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Economics

Friday, June 25, 2010

British Banks Determined to Bankrupt Britain / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England has raised concerns over British banks exposure to European sovereign debt in its Financial Stability Report, calling on the banks to raise capital reserves in advance of future debt defaults, and to extend the maturity of the banking sectors wholesale funding as short-term loans increase the risks of credit freeze events as they are rolled over.

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Economics

Friday, June 25, 2010

Europe’s Fiscal Dystopia: The “New Austerity” Road to Financial Serfdom / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Michael_Hudson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEurope is committing fiscal suicide – and will have little trouble finding allies at this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Toronto. Despite the deepening Great Recession threatening to bring on outright depression, European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and prime ministers from Britain’s David Cameron to Greece’s George Papandreou (president of the Socialist International) and Canada’s host, Conservative Premier Stephen Harper, are calling for cutbacks in public spending.

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Economics

Friday, June 25, 2010

Why Investors Must Keep an Eye on Spain / Economics / Spain

By: Money_Morning

Jon D. Markman writes: Greece is not the big story of Europe anymore - just a smoke screen.

The big story is Spain and the United Kingdom, and the news is getting worse.

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Economics

Friday, June 25, 2010

How to Profit From Europe’s Stealth Economic Recovery / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: European countries - both inside and outside the Eurozone - are slashing their budget deficits.

Greece, Portugal and Spain - three of the so-called "PIGS" - have to do so, of course. But Germany - generally reckoned to be in excellent shape - is also cutting its deficit, as is France, which hasn't run a budget surplus in 40 years. Britain, too, with no need to protect the euro (it's not a Eurozone member) just introduced a budget that cut the deficit by $140 billion over four years.

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Economics

Friday, June 25, 2010

The Case for a Second Round of Economic Stimulus  / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlan Greenspan has joined the ranks of the deficit hawks and is calling for austerity measures to reduce government spending. In an op-ed in last Thursday's Wall Street Journal titled "U.S. Debt and the Greece Analogy", Maestro Greenspan made the case for fiscal belt-tightening and disputed leading economists, like Nobel prize winners Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, who believe that the Obama administration should provide a second round of stimulus. In the opening paragraph, Greenspan dismisses the idea that cuts in government spending will push the economy back into recession. Here's an excerpt:

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Economics

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Trichet Says No Deflation or Economic Stagnation in Europe / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA sure sign that something is either on the way if not already happening is denial by a central banker of the risks. With that idea in place, this headline speaks for itself: ECB's Trichet says austerity plans don't risk stagnation

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Economics

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Central Banking in Crisis, Twenty Countries on the Verge of Insolvency / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCycles were created for the accumulation of wealth. A boom occurs and you get wealthy from investments on the way up and even wealthier on the way down, because the elitists are controlling the supply of money and credit and interest rates. That is the real underlying mission of the Fed, which is owned by banking and Wall Street. All the power to control markets and create inflation and deflation lies with the Federal Reserve. Politicians do not create monetary policy, the Fed does. The politicians do as they are told. They know from time to time there will be economic pain, but the payoffs are so good they learn to live with it.

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Economics

Thursday, June 24, 2010

U.S. Fears Economic Stimulus Measures Will Choke on Europe’s Drastic Budget Slashing / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: While U.S. President Barack Obama will be gunning for more economic stimulus measures at this weekend's Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Canada, European lawmakers continue drastic efforts to rein in spending.

The coordination of global efforts to promote economic recovery will be the main issue at the weekend's meeting, which was set to spotlight the value of China's currency before Beijing announced Saturday that it would allow the yuan to appreciate. The United States and Europe's differing views on the most effective strategies to maintain global economic growth and slash bloated government budgets are increasing tensions between leaders.

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Economics

Thursday, June 24, 2010

We Cannot Afford a Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Casey_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBy Alex Daley, Senior Editor, Casey Research writes: Talk of a double-dip recession is seemingly increasing these days. Home sales have dropped like a brick since the end of the special tax breaks for buyers. Weekly job reports are showing much larger rises in unemployment claims than previously expected by whoever it is that decides what exactly is expected - 427,000 new filings in just the last weekly report.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Two Leading Economic Indicators Point to Another Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are two well-known and important leading economic indexes for the U.S. economy:

• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), and

• The Weekly U.S. Leading Economic Index published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Money vs Wealth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen discussing financial matters, people often conflate money with wealth. Although such loose language may be perfectly fine in everyday conversation, it's important to occasionally go over the basics and make sure we are thinking about these issues in the proper way.

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