Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, September 10, 2009
A Tale of Two Inflations / Economics / Inflation
For some time now, the disparity between price increases for imported goods and price increases for domestic goods and services has been of great interest to me and, after working through all of the applicable Labor Department data on this subject, it quickly becomes clear that there is an interesting story to tell here about two very different types of U.S. inflation in recent years - domestic inflation and imported inflation.
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Thursday, September 10, 2009
Yet Another Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
It looks like this will be the third jobless recovery in a row. Coming out of the last two recessions we had what has become to be known as a jobless recovery. Job growth usually surges coming out of a recession as companies rush to bring on new employees to rebuild inventories that were depleted in the downturn.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2009
The Great Fakeroo Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
There is something affected, something not believable, something agitpropish, about all the cheers for the glorious economic recovery we are experiencing. Some of its biggest boosters don't even quite believe it.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2009
How To Create More Jobs America / Economics / Employment
My recent survey produced a variety of ideas, but most of them had these common elements: replace the Internal Revenue Code with a simpler model, encourage businesses to increase employment, and insist upon tort reform everywhere.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Depression Debate - Is this an Economic Depression? / Economics / Great Depression II
In 1929 Versus 2007: Employment Change Barry Ritholtz posted a chart of unemployment with a comment: "This chart makes it pretty clear that the current recession is no Depression"
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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Job Losses Slow but the U.S. Economy Follows Jobless Recovery Script / Economics / Employment
Jason Simpkins writes: The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in August, but the country will likely be saddled with a high unemployment rate throughout all of 2010, analysts say.
In short, even though the economy has improved, the odds of a "jobless recovery" continue to grow.
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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
When Keynesian Salvation Fails, Horrific Stimulus Trouble / Economics / Economic Theory
On this Labor Day I got up before dawn, turned on CNBC and watched an hour long, free-wheeling discussion moderated by Maria Bartoromo among Jack Welch [GE CEO for decades], Fink [CEO and Chm. of Blackrock], Pandit [CEO of Citigroup] and about seven other major people at the top of U.S. Finance and Big Corps. They all agree we face many years of grim financial and economic and probably political developments.
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Monday, September 07, 2009
Job Creation Down 35%, Consumer Spending Down 33% From Year Ago / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
On this Labor Day, inquiring minds are reading Gallup Economic Monthly: Job Creation Not Happening.
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Monday, September 07, 2009
Increased Liquidity Boosts Economic Recovery Hopes / Economics / Economic Recovery
Global economic recovery gets underway - A global increase in liquidity has been underway in an attempt to kick start economic recovery ever since the depth of the financial crisis was understood. It appears to be working. A range of countries have recorded a rise in economic growth in Q2, including Germany, France and Japan, see chart a. For many of them, this was the first rise in economic activity in over a year, after sharp consecutive quarterly declines.
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Monday, September 07, 2009
Robert Prechter Warning Economic Depression and Financial Crisis Worse To Come / Economics / Economic Depression
Dear reader,
Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International in his recent 10 page newsletter (download for free) challenges the economic recovery hype with hard facts and independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.
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Sunday, September 06, 2009
Deflation, Inflation, Stagflation, Mass inflation, Hyperinflation, Which One Will Get Us? / Economics / Economic Theory
One of them will. That's if things work out really well. Two or three will if things go according to the Austrian theory of the business cycle.
Americans have been living in the eye of the monetary hurricane. Prices have been stable. In July, both the Consumer Price Index and the Median CPI were flat compared to June.
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Sunday, September 06, 2009
Government Economic Stimulus, How Many Rabbits Are Left In The Hat? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
As amazing as it seems, inquiring minds are interested in hats and rabbit, more specifically, "How Many Rabbits Are Left In The Hat?"
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Saturday, September 05, 2009
America's Economic Crisis, Forecasting Worse Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II
Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (1881 - 1973) said:"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
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Saturday, September 05, 2009
Failure of Economics, the Super Trend and Elements of Deflation / Economics / Economic Theory
The Elements of Deflation
The Failure of Economics
The Super Trend Puzzle
Final Demand and Income
Unemployment Was NOT a Green Shoot
As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple formula we all know as H2O. Today we start a series that starts with the question, What are the elements that comprise deflation? Far from being simple, the "equation" for deflation is as complex as that of DNA. And sadly, while the genome project has helped us with great insights into how DNA works, economic analysis is still back in the 1950s when it comes to decoding deflation. Notwithstanding the paucity of understanding we can glean from the dismal science, in this week's letter we will start thinking about the most fundamentally important question of the day: is inflation, or deflation, in our future?
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Friday, September 04, 2009
Global Recession Or Low Carbon / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Keynesian Boom and Bust - Like we know, the recent and continuing massive spending spree by nearly all G20 governmentsand their central banks, described as "fighting recession", is also called Keynesian. To be sure, this process of handing over or "injecting" perhaps $ 4 000 billion since around October 2008 (using IMF data), mostly into the bank, insurance and finance sector in OECD countries, is Keynesian in one sense. National debts and government budget deficits have been increased, often radically. Several east European members of the EU27, and most famously Iceland, as well as Ireland, Pakistan, the UK and USA, and some other countries have seen foreign and/or national debt grow so fast their public finances are now structurally unsound. If economic growth does not return soon, and continue for at least a year or two, the unthinkable prospect of central bank failure will return, in several of these countries. We can note that the approximate $ 4 trillion of 'Keynesian bailouts' in the OECD countries, since late 2008, is equivalent to roughly 6.5% of world total GDP in 2008, also using IMF data.
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Friday, September 04, 2009
U.S. Jobs Contract 20th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Hits 9.7% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
In January I forecast the unemployment rate would hit 9.8% by August. Meanwhile, even though it was clear the Fed was wildly off base in its adverse scenario, the Fed upped it total to a mere 9.2% to 9.6% for the year as noted in Fed's Economic Forecast Worsens; Still Ridiculously Optimistic.
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Friday, September 04, 2009
U.S. Ski-Jump Recession, How Bad Will It Get? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
The U.S. economy is at the beginning of a protracted period of adjustment. The sharp decline in business activity, which began in the summer of 2007, has moderated slightly, but there are few indications that growth will return to pre-crisis levels. Stocks have performed well in the last six months, beating most analysts expectations, but weakness in the underlying economy will continue to crimp demand reducing any chance of a strong rebound. Bankruptcies, delinquencies and defaults are all on the rise, which is pushing down asset prices and increasing unemployment.
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Friday, September 04, 2009
Not Enough Work to Go Around This Labor Day / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Mike Larson writes: Home prices have plunged so far that buyers are tentatively stepping back into the housing market again …
And government largesse in the form of “Cash for Clunkers” giveaways has helped spur a rebound in auto sales …
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Friday, September 04, 2009
Daily Economic Outlook, U.S. Non Farm Payroll Potential For Surprise / Economics / US Economy
Data from the US this week, notably the stronger-than-expected outcomes of the manufacturing and services ISM surveys, have raised the likelihood that the economy has returned to growth in the current quarter, ending the longest contraction since quarterly records started in 1947. However, the focus today is squarely on the labour market, an area of the economy that will significantly lag the wider recovery and represents the main downside risk to sustained economic growth.
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Friday, September 04, 2009
The Economic Black Hole / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
have been receiving many interesting emails lately from all areas of the country, international as well. I would like to share some of them with you.
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