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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

US Economy May Wake Up Without Consumers' Prodding? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

In Mondays Wall Street Journal , reporter Christopher Conkey wrote a piece suggesting that with 75% of the economy faltering, the other 25% was going to accelerate, preventing the 100% from stalling out. Let's start with business investment. Historically, business fixed investment is a lagging indicator.

That is, after residential investment (housing) and consumer spending head for the deck, then business investment follows household spending down. This pattern of business fixed investment spending lagging household spending is shown in Chart 1. On a contemporaneous basis, the correlation between the two series is 0.47. The highest correlation between the series, 0.69, occurs when household spending is advanced (leads) by two quarters.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

When will the Bush Credit Driven Boom Crack? / Economics / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

Unfortunately every credit fuelled boom ends in recession. Although no one can really predict the actual timing of a recession one can look out for certain danger signals, the major one being manufacturing. Once manufacturing finds itself in a profits squeeze rising costs start to bite into profit margins it will have no choice but to discharge labour, cut back on investment and reduce output.

After a while the manufacturing contraction will reach down into the consumption stages of production, at which point it will be officially declared that the economy has tanked.

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Economics

Monday, May 21, 2007

Central Bankers Playing A Global Game of Chicken with Inflation / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Michael_Pento

Central banks across the globe have succeeded in creating a worldwide bull market in most asset classes and we now approach a watershed moment in international markets. Will central bankers keep fueling this rally by lowering interest rates and increasing the money supply, or will they opt to fight the inflationary spiral they created and cause this liquidity boom to dry up—sending asset prices correcting across the globe?

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Economics

Saturday, May 19, 2007

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: mises.org

"The bright side of the credit boom is an apparently expanding economy. Sooner or later, however, the boom is going to show its dark side. The gap between the credit and money induced increase in demand for and supply of resources becomes obvious."

by Thorsten Polleit

I. Introduction

Under today's government-controlled paper-money standards, the world's major economies have embarked upon an unprecedented expansion of credit, starting in the early 1980s. As credit growth has been outstripping economies' rise in output, total debt levels in percent of gross domestic product (GDP) have increased strongly.

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Economics

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Thoughts from the Frontline - Core Inflation vs. Headline Inflation and Real GDP vs. Nominal / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:
Are We There Yet?
Core Inflation vs. Headline Inflation
Real vs. Nominal
A Crack in the Consumer Armor?
Ethanol Madness
Los Angeles and Europe

Summer driving season is almost upon us. I remember more than a few long road trips with young kids, who would eventually get bored and tired and lulled into sleep, and with a stop for gas would wake up and ask, "Are we there yet?" or "Where are we?" They would be impatient to get "there" (ok, so was Dad), and the journey was something to be endured rather than enjoyed for its own sake. Today, traveling with the older kids (6 of them 18-30, with just one still at 13) is a lot different, as we look forward to the time together, with great conversation and lots of laughs.

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Economics

Friday, May 18, 2007

Henry Paulson Putting Lipstick on a Pig / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

As Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson continues to drum up interest in direct investment in the United States , he will rely on a set of skills that only a long-time Wall Street pro can truly master. It is part of the investment banker's playbook to perform financial makeovers on questionable companies that they are engaged to sell, a process commonly known as "putting lipstick on a pig." 

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Economics

Friday, May 18, 2007

US Has The Worst Performing Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

I just got back from The Las Vegas Money Show, where I had a fantastic time speaking with subscribers and catching up on all the latest financial trends.

In a second, I'm going to give you a quick summary of what I told everyone at the conference. But first, I want to briefly point out something that happened in the few short days that I was gone …

I'm talking about the fact that the underperformance in commercial real estate shares, which I told you about two weeks ago , is getting worse.

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Economics

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Trapped in a Government Spending Spree / Economics / US Economy

By: TheDailyReckoning

The Mogambo Guru writes : "I deftly add the $3.7 trillion in spending by the federal government plus the $1.3 trillion by the state governments, and after a few tries I triumphantly announce that we are looking at a cool $5 trillion or more per year! Wow!"

My excuse is that I was driven insane by the incessant noise from the sensitive Mogambo Economic Seismograph System (MESS), the recording pens noisily clicking and clacking, all the time clicking and clacking, clicking and clacking as they bang back and forth, erratically scrawling and scratching a frantic graph of financial desperation and doom across that rolling strip of graph paper.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

US Housing Sector is Crashing, False Housing and Jobs statistics to eventually benefit Gold / Economics / US Housing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The newest deceptions are with jobs and housing. Each is much worse than reported. The housing decline might be as much as 15% worse than reported, which leads to much bigger job loss than is reported. Most of the home construction job loss is under the table, to people not on state jobless insurance programs, and to immigrant workers paid in cash. Both fall through the statistical cracks in those home frames and plywood floors underlayments. A quick preface on the two biggest corrupted statistics first, since of paramount importance.

The US Federal Reserve will likely respond to more rapid job loss, and to more rapid home sector erosion decline. When they do, expect an official rate cut sequence to resemble that of 2001. As in, sharp & sudden. The signals surround us, that the major powers are in the process of permitting the USDollar to fall.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Preparing for Weakness in the U.S Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

I'm something of the resident bull here at Weiss Research. While Martin and Mike often take a more pessimistic view of economic events, I generally look on the sunny side. The vigorous discussions we have are great reality checks for the whole team.

As much as I hate to admit it, some of the things Martin and Mike have been talking about, as well as other recent developments, do look downright bearish to me.

The good news is that there are still reasons to be bullish, and plenty of great places to invest. I'll get to that in a moment.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

U.S. Consumer Prices Rising at 5.6% Y/Y in Last Three Months! / Economics / Inflation

By: Mario_Innecco

The U.S. Department of Labor reported today that the Consumer Price Index or the C.P.I. rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in the month of April. Wall Street was expecting a rise of 0.5% so Bloomberg news reported that the C.P.I. came out lower than expected and that this was a sign that inflation is abating as the economy cools!

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Economics

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

UK Inflation falls back below 3% to 2.8%, Interest Rates still to rise to 5.75% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Inflation for April, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has as anticipated fallen back below 3% to 2.8%. This follows last months shock rise to 3.1% CPI, which prompted the governor of the Bank of England to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation had exceeded the upper boundary of 3%, and guaranteed a rise in interest rates to 5.50% at last Thursdays MPC Meeting (May 10th).

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Economics

Monday, May 14, 2007

The Rest of the World is going to Rejuvenate the US Economy? / Economics / UK Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The “core” U.S. economy is doing fine. That is, if you exclude consumer spending, business capital goods spending and housing – almost 85% of U.S. real GDP – the outlook is rosy inasmuch as exports will surely surge because of the strong economic growth in the rest of the world. Other than the fact that exports are only about 11-1/2% of real GDP, a record high, there are other problems with depending on the rest of the world to be America's economic locomotive.

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Economics

Monday, May 14, 2007

How the Fed Causes Recessions / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

It is taken for granted that the US will go into recession on the grounds that the boom-bush cycle is an inherent part of the free market. (Democrats and their lying media mates are fervently praying that the next recession will happen on Bush's watch). Now that Greenspan has retired and Bernanke heads the reserve most commentators expect that it will be business as usual. Unfortunately they are right. Bernanke made that clear a while ago with a supportive comment about the "price rule".

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Economics

Friday, May 11, 2007

Are We Headed for Another Great Depression? / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Mike_Whitney

My talks with Elaine Meinel Supkis

Question: I've been getting more and more e mail from people who are worried that the policies of the Bush administration will bring about a severe economic downturn or, perhaps, even another Great Depression. Do you believe that the problems in the real estate market, the falling dollar, the massive current account deficit, or the shaky hedge fund industry are likely to cause major meltdown?

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Economics

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

The incredible Israeli Shekel, as Israels economy continues to Boom / Economics / Israel

By: Gary_Dorsch

In a speech to business people on the risks facing the global economy, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on March 20th, that geopolitics was at the top of his list. “There is a near complete disconnect between geopolitical risk and risk that is priced and perceived in financial markets. It's like something out of Dickens, you talk to international relations experts and it's the worst of all times. Then you talk to potential investors and it's one of the best of all times.”

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Economics

Monday, May 07, 2007

Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, and Stock Market / Economics / Financial Markets

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Economy
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payroll employment edged up +88,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%.

There were jobs added in several service-providing industries, including health care and food services, while employment declined in retail trade and manufacturing .

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Economics

Monday, May 07, 2007

US Economy and China's Currency -- What Gives? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

"Currency manipulation places American workers, farmers and businesses at a competitive disadvantage and this Congress will work with the administration to hold trading partners accountable to the rules of trade," said House Trade Subcommittee Chairman Sander Levin (D - MI). (And some readers still wonder why I have such intellectual contempt for most politicians, especially the likes of Levin). The basic problem for the US economy is not an undervalued Chinese currency but monetary policy.

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Economics

Saturday, May 05, 2007

US Economy, Stuck in the Middle with You / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, here I am Stuck in the middle with you! - Stealers Wheel, 1974

The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy is weakening (witness the very slow 1.3% GDP growth last quarter). This week we look at the seeming disconnect in the data, briefly examine where the real stock market booms are happening, and re-visit the housing markets. It's a lot for what will be a quick letter (and lots of charts), as I am trying to leave town, so let's jump right in.

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Economics

Friday, May 04, 2007

“Growth” is in the Eye of the Beholder - US GDP falls 10% in Euro Terms / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

It may come as a shock to many of you, but I too believe that we are experiencing a "Goldilocks" economy. However, unlike most on Wall Street I do not define this as economic growth that is neither too hot nor too cold.  I believe the analogy is apt simply because 

U.S. economic growth is a fairy tale!  When such gains are measured against the gains in the price of just about anything people buy, or in just about any foreign currency, it's a whole different story. For example; measured in euros, U.S. GDP has declined from 11.5 trillion in January of 2000 to 10 trillion today. From a European perspective, the U.S. economy has been in a seven-year recession, with GDP declining by close to 2% per annum.

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