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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, January 04, 2023

Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Michael_Pento

Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last SEP that was released in September.

And yet, the Deep State of Wall Street is busy telling investors that the Fed is almost done raising rates, hence, and a new bull market is right around the corner. But history proves this premise to be false. For example, during the preamble to the Great Recession, the Fed Funds Rate reached its apex in June of 2006 at 5.25%. It took 3 years for it to ascend to that level, up from the 1% starting level back in June of 2003. Ben Bernanke then began to cut rates in September of 2007; but the Great Recession began anyway in December of that same year. And, exactly one year from that first rate cut, the stock market went into freefall. This is another clear example of many throughout history that shows rate hikes work with a long lag.

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Economics

Sunday, December 18, 2022

2023: Preparing for tectonic shifts in the world economy  / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Colossal structural shifts are taking place in the global economy, as evidenced by the huge challenges during the ongoing year. In 2023, China seeks recovery, but the West – the US, the Eurozone and the UK, and Japan - will cope with recession and the specter of a debt crisis.

In a recent Foreign Affairs commentary, Mohamed A. El-Erian warned that we are not facing just extraordinarily challenging business-cycle fluctuations, but structural and secular long-term pressures. As a result, “the global economy may never be the same.”

In reality, the “old normal” has been history since 2008 and the consequent debt crises. During the past decade, world economy has been driven by geopolitical agendas, not by economic priorities. And the results have been predictable: catastrophic.

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Economics

Friday, December 02, 2022

Why the Fed is Wrong about Inflation Coming Down / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Mills

The US Federal Reserve continues to grapple with inflation, which at 7.7% (October CPI) is more than triple the Fed’s 2% target, without causing a recession by lifting interest rates too high.

The Fed has two options when it comes to interest rate increases designed to tackle the highest US inflation since the early 1980s. The first is it continues to hike rates, beyond what the economy can handle, causing a recession, usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. This is the “Volcker Fed” playbook.

In 1979, then US Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker faced a serious challenge: how to quell inflation which had been wracking the economy for most of the decade. The prices of goods and services had averaged 3.2% annually since World War II, but after the 1973 oil shock, they more than doubled, to an annual 7.7%. Inflation reached 9.1% in 1975, the highest since 1947. Although prices declined the following year, by 1979 inflation had reached a startling 11.3% (led by the 1979 energy crisis) and in 1980 it soared to 13.5%.

Not only was inflation going through the roof, but economic growth had stalled and unemployment was high, rising from 5.1% in January 1974 to 9% in May 1975. In this low-growth, hyperinflationary environment we had “stagflation”.  

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Economics

Sunday, November 27, 2022

US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP, what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!

The facts are the US had a recession in 2022 that everyone is ignoring!

The US posted it's 2nd negative GDP of -0.6%, that's -2.4% year to date, what does that mean for stocks? Corporate profits Dividend by GDP graph clearly shows that we are still near the cycle peak, i.e .unlike Q4 2019 BEFORE the pandemic crash, earnings have not contracted anywhere near to signal an earnings bottom. So this metric suggests new highs in the indices are NOT likely anytime soon, especially given that GDP is FALLING. However against this we have the MAGIC of INFLATION that should support nominal stock prices as Inflation INFLATES GDP and corporate profits, case in point being the 1970's where corporate profits ROSE albeit form a 1970 trough, but the indices ended the decade little changed.

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Economics

Monday, November 21, 2022

CPLIE - The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

People need to learn to forget about graphs such as this (Annual percentage change in CPLIE) -

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Economics

Friday, November 18, 2022

WHY PEAK INFLATION IS a RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The Inflation Mega-trend

REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..

I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!

As for the United States, shadow stats does a good job of calculating the real rate of inflation which ia based on the US governments own 1980 formulae that resolves to 13.5% vs 8.2%.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 09, 2022

RECESSIONS 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In terms of economic activity of all the major economies the US is the most robust so Recession delayed, which may never materialise. Meanwhile the rest of the world, especially Europe is scrambling to counter soaring energy bills and economic stagnation.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 08, 2022

The Fed Induced Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Dan_Steinbock

After unwarranted trade wars, a pandemic depression, proxy wars, energy and food crises, global economic prospects will be further penalized by the US Federal Reserve's aggressive hikes and collateral damage worldwide.

From early 2020 to early 2021, the Fed funds rate had been at 0.25%. Though the inflation rate in the US slowed for the third month to 8.2% in September 2022, it remained above market forecasts.

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Economics

Sunday, November 06, 2022

US Dollar Strength Implications for Global Economies / Economics / Global Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US Dollar Big Picture

Ultimately the fate of the dollar bull market is to spike in a blow off top and then collapse in spectacular style, probably at a faster pace then it is currently going higher.

Now don't take this chart as a literal trend forecast as I don't have the time to undertake such a study right now but it is a rough picture of what I have in mind of how the dollar trend could play out. There will be plenty of time to define a forecast trend pattern over the coming years.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..

I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2022

UK in CRISIS - Liz Truss Resigns, Inflation Nightmare, Soaring Interest Rates, Economic CRASH! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt, the Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given!, Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson, parties, stoopid media wasted thousands of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless, after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!

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Economics

Sunday, September 25, 2022

INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The big questions for the US and how our US tech stocks will fair over the coming year are -

1. Does the Federal Reserve finally understand just how dangerous inflation actually is ?

2. If it does then how is it going to subvert the inflationary policies of the White house, does not matter which clown is in office i.e. democrat or republican, BOTH have tendencies towards rampant money printing given the 4 year election cycle.

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Economics

Monday, September 05, 2022

“Countering” China would pave the way to Global Economic Depression / Economics / China

By: Dan_Steinbock

In its pursuit for unipolar primacy, the Biden administration is risking the economic stability of China, the West, emerging Asia, and the futures of the Global South.

Before the global pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported China had replaced the United States as the engine of the global economy. In parallel, Reuters market analyst Jack Kemp warned that since early 2018, "the United States has pursued a deliberate policy of attempting to hurt China’s economy in response to concerns about the shifting balance of economic power and unfair trade practices.”

As economist Anne O. Krueger saw it, Trump’s trade war was “a failure that harmed both China and the US.” Consequently, many hoped that Biden's victory would come with a bilateral reset. But the reverse happened.

Building further on Trump’s flawed policies, the Biden White House began to weaponize those policies while diversifying risks to U.S. allies – from the EU and Japan to Ukraine and Taiwan.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 09, 2022

Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The idiot in charge of the Bank of England Bailey now warns of 13% inflation, 5 quarter deep uk recession, and requests Britains workers not ask for high pay rises due to the risks of the wage price spiral, despite paying himself 575,000 for making a dogs dinner of the economy. So are his predictions going to come true, we'll a year ago he was barking about transitory inflation and a growing economy ahead! Completely clueless idiot!

The problem is this the Bank of England CAUSED the INFLATION by means of rampant money printing that they then used to monetize near half of UK government debt! That's what caused the inflation! And now the morons are trying to fight 10% inflation with 1.75% interest rate, Bailey and his fellow morons do not have clue, they are literally fumbling in the dark for the light switch and we pay the price for these clowns!

As for the wage price spiral, it does not exist, there is no wage price spiral instead it is a price wage spiral! i.e. Wages are trying to catch up to out of control inflation and failing to do so hence the cost of living crisis where wages cannot keep up with prices in the shop.

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Economics

Saturday, August 06, 2022

COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! / Economics / Inflation

By: N_Walayat

The Inept Governor of the Bank of England has miserably FAILED in the banks primary remit of pegging inflation at 2%. This video illustrates why the Cost of Living Crisis will soon become a decade long nightmare for most Brits.

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Economics

Friday, August 05, 2022

WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

When one looks under CPI inflation hood then one sees strong signs of inflation topping, given what we have already seen transpire in the commodities markets such as Gasoline prices having fallen since the May inflation report and many of the components such as Airfares also turning lower.

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Economics

Thursday, August 04, 2022

What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raymond_Matison

According to Webster’s dictionary, the definition of prognosis is a forecast, or a prediction of a probable course of a disease in an individual, and the chances of recovery.  In this article, we apply this definition of prognosis to our inanimate, yet seemingly “living and breathing” economy, and project its chances of recovery.

The world is filled with intelligent and highly experienced economists, and thousands of financial market observers who can give us a lucid and convincing interpretation of our economy and health of our financial markets.  As a result, you can find widely recognized professionals who will diagnose and predict the direction of our economy and financial health as to support our own personally biased view of reality – regardless of what that may be.  But independent of our own personally preferred views, what is the most probable reality we are likely to experience?  What is the real economic and financial prognosis? 

Government agencies and media are increasingly filled with unjustifiably adjusted and manipulated economic data, directed and misdirected propaganda, and outright lies, such that it is nearly impossible to judge the real strength or direction of the economy and the health of our financial markets.  Since small and developing nations are quickly learning these “tricks of the trade”, international media and government agencies are universally now also dispensing politically favorable rhetoric rather than truth.  So what measures can we review to accurately evaluate the health of our economy?

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Economics

Friday, July 22, 2022

Why UK Cost of Living Crisis Will Get X10 Worse! Britain Heading for INFLATION CATASTROPHE! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK CPI inflation has just nudged higher to 9.4% that is prompting the always wrong crowd to crow loudly about how peak inflation being just around the corner, however the herd remains completely blind to what is set to follow over the remainder of this decade and the funnel all of their weak brain power into regurgitating the same annual percentage change graphs, all whilst missing the Inflation big picture that warns that even if peak inflation i just around the corner to soon to be followed by inflation falling to say 6% or even 5%, however this is not going to make any difference to the INFLATION PAIN that is going to manifest over the coming years,

Britain's inflation goose is well and truly cooked as our inept government and even more moronic central bank have sleep walked Britain to back to the 1970;s which will manifest in a cost of living crisis that most are unprepared for as my latest video illustrates.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

What’s with all the Pretend Economists all of a Sudden? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Is everyone an economist now?

These days, everyone I speak with has a strong opinion on the economy.

Most are convinced things will get worse.

They think the US economy is headed off a cliff, and that inflation is here to stay.

As a result, they also want nothing to do with stocks. They’re certain that the entire market is about to collapse.

I see things differently…
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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2022

Fed-Induced Recession Looms as Rate Fears Roil All Markets / Economics / Recession 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Another pair of alarming inflation reports jolted markets this week.

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high.

The biggest contributors to rising consumer prices are the basic necessities of food, fuel, and shelter. As households struggle to make ends meet, they are trimming discretionary spending, burning through savings, and running up credit card balances.

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