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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, February 26, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 2 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“Inflation comes from too much money chasing too few goods.” –Many an economics professor

But does it really?

In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while at the same time proposing an alternative theory. I also promised that the theory leads to an inflation indicator with an excellent prediction record, and I’ll define the indicator in this article. Considering inflation determines bull and bear markets in both stocks and bonds, that’s my big pitch.

But first, here’s a recap.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Investors got lulled into a state of inflation complacency. Persistently low official inflation rates in recent years depressed bond yields along with risk premiums on all financial assets.

That’s changing in 2018. Five drivers of higher inflation rates are now starting to kick in.

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Economics

Monday, February 19, 2018

How Inflation Reduces The Real Value Of Social Security Net Of Medicare Premiums / Economics / Government Spending

By: Dan_Amerman

For most retirees age 65 and over, the spending power which they rely on from government retirement programs is their Social Security benefits after their Medicare Part B premiums have been withheld.

Because Social Security is in theory supposed to be fully inflation indexed, many people believe their standards of living in retirement will be fully protected from inflation. However, when we look at what matters the most, which is the purchasing power of Social Security net of Medicare premiums - that particular number has never been intended to keep up with the rate of inflation, as a matter of design.

Current retirees have received a rude wake-up call in recent years, with the increases in their Medicare Part B premiums consuming almost all of their very small increases in Social Security benefits. This is a process that is, however, still in its early stages. Particularly if higher rates of inflation are indeed returning, then the impact on retiree standards of living may be swift, powerful and sustained.

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Economics

Sunday, February 18, 2018

An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 / Economics / Inflation

By: F_F_Wiley

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”—Milton Friedman

Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation?

Ever heard anyone else question it?

Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite a lousy forecasting record by economists who bought into his Monetarist methods.

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Economics

Monday, February 12, 2018

Bitcoin: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be / Economics / Bitcoin

By: EconMatters

Bitcoin had rocketed from $900 to almost $20,000 in 2017.  We discussed why Bitcoin is a really bad investment for any investors and how 20% of Bitcoin owners took out debt in this get-rich-quick gamble.

It could all work out for everyone involved if Bitcoin were to continue its run towards $25,000 or even $60,000 according to some overly zealous predictions.  The problem is Bitcoin has crashed to around $8,600 as I write this post today.  Central banks like PBOC are moving to tighten oversight of bitcoin exchanges.  Banks have banned purchasing bitcoins using their credit cards.

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Economics

Monday, February 12, 2018

The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Dan_Steinbock

If the government’s focus remains on inclusive economic development, the Philippines could become a bright spot in the global landscape.

Today, there is a huge gap between the Philippines as it is portrayed by many international observers and the country’s fundamental economic realities.

The Duterte win was the triumph of ordinary Filipinos. Accordingly, there is only one way for the government to succeed. It must deliver the country’s economic promise.

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Economics

Monday, February 05, 2018

The Meaning of Economic Philosophy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Dr. Gero Jenner writes:In ‘The Open Society and its Enemies’, Karl Popper strongly defended the position that major interventions in the economy, especially when ideologically motivated, are usually disastrous and should therefore be avoided. Popper wrote his famous work towards the end of the thirties. On the one hand, he saw the devastating effects of textbook-based economies, where the working masses were tied into an economic strait-jacket by a Politburo, on the other hand, Popper was well aware of the dangers of that kind of capitalism, which tended to place the interests of a few monopolists above those of the general population. Against such aberrations, Popper propagated what he called ’social engineering‘, namely, a model of small steps, where every previous economic intervention is painstakingly scrutinized in view of its effects before any further action is embarked upon. Popper seemed to regard the economy in the same way as a highly complex machinery which a layman cannot tackle without causing the greatest damage.

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Economics

Friday, January 26, 2018

A Vision for the European Economic Future / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Enda_Glynn

Hi everyone,

I have seen the Future for the European Economy,
And it is not looking good.

The EU tracks a wide number of european wide economic indicators,
Everything from consumer credit,
to unemployment expectations in the future.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Inflation Tsunami Ahead / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Inflation is one of the most misunderstood, misused and lied about topics in economics. The Fed professes to know what causes it: an overly employed workforce. But, perhaps it is aware this is false and intentionally promulgates the ruse of growth as inflation’s progenitor because central banks want to deflect attention away from its money printing. Nevertheless, one thing is abundantly clear, we all have to agree that the Fed can’t readily control the exact rate of inflation; nor can it direct what the repositories will be for its quantitative counterfeiting misadventures.

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Economics

Friday, January 19, 2018

Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy / Economics / UK Economy

By: Submissions

What really happens in an economic minute? Is the UK flush with cash or does it need a bad credit loan? How much money does the UK make every 60 seconds? What's the average household income every minute compared to the highest-powered CEOs? It can't be too much in just a minute. Or can it? We crunched the numbers to create a 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy.

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Economics

Thursday, January 18, 2018

5 Economic Predictions for 2018 / Economics / Financial Markets 2018

By: John_Mauldin

Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records—mostly in a good way.

But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip into my annual forecast bag and share a few highlights from my friends with you. (you can find the previous part of the 2018 forecast here)

These are the people I follow, read, and trust for their financial expertise.

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Economics

Monday, January 15, 2018

The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : I think this year’s top risk is a miscalculation by the Federal Reserve—specifically, that it will tighten monetary policy too much.

The Fed is hiking interest rates because its experts believe the economy is close to “full employment.” And the Phillips Curve says wages should start rising any minute now.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Trump’s Tax Cuts: The Good, The Bad, and the Inflationary / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

At last, tax reform is happening! Last week, President Donald Trump celebrated the passage of the most important legislation so far of his presidency.

The final bill falls far short of the “file on a postcard” promise of Trump’s campaign. It even falls short of the bill trotted out by Congressional Republicans just a few weeks ago. It is, nevertheless, the most significant tax overhaul in more than a decade.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Chinese Economy in 2018 and Beyond / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock


In the coming years, China shall aim at high-quality development, while seeking to forestall financial and international risks.

The recent Central Economic Work Conference marked a historical point in China’s economic development. After Mao’s struggle for the mainland’s sovereignty, and Deng’s economic reforms and opening-up, President Xi’s team seeks complete much of the transition to post-industrial society by the early 2020s.

What does it all mean for Chinese economy in 2018?
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Eclipse of US Free-Trade Legacy in Americas and Asia Pacific / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, all major US free trade deals in North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific have fallen under fire. As American legacy in free trade is dimming, there is a new opportunity for real free trade in Asia Pacific.

Recently, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau concluded a visit to China. The joint talks about a free trade pact began over a year ago. As Trudeau left Beijing, Western media headlined “Trudeau leaves China empty-handed,” while Chinese Foreign Ministry said that “both China and Canada showed willingness to negotiate and sign a free trade agreement.”

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Economics

Sunday, December 17, 2017

Never Mind Tea Leaves, Here’s a Strong Signal from the Economic Dashboard / Economics / US Economy

By: F_F_Wiley

We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually do—in both markets and the economy. But most forecasters expect the economy to expand through next year, believing that the Fed and the yield curve aren’t yet restrictive enough to trigger a recession.

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Economics

Friday, December 15, 2017

Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2… / Economics / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives.

The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively well.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

The Jobs Report Misled You—Job and Wage Growth Are Actually Decelerating / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

The monthly jobs report is one of the most important statistics for investors.

Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor, which I covered many times in my newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline (subscribe here). But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall / Economics / Stagflation

By: GoldCore

– UK inflation hits 3.1%, highest in nearly six years
– UK earnings flat – households are still suffering falling real wages
– Stagflation risk as food and drink prices jumped 4.1% in 12 months
– UK house prices fall two-months in a row, down 0.5% in October
– Real stagflation risk now, inflation high and growth slowing
– Savings continue to be eaten by inflation 

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Economics

Friday, December 08, 2017

4 Charts That Show How Trump Tax Cuts Will Trigger A Recession / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Not so long ago, I explained why tax cuts won’t stimulate the economy as much as Republicans think.

In short, most CEOs say they will use any tax savings for stock buybacks or dividends, not new hiring or expansion.

But what if, instead of little or no growth, this tax bill sets off an outright contraction?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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