Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
We Have an Economic Eight-Body Problem / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
If you have three large objects that have gravitational impact on each other, you can determine where they have been in the past.
However, you cannot predict where they will be in the future. At least, not without great difficulty.
In physics, this is called the three-body problem.
In economics, we are well beyond the three-body problem. I think it is more like an eight-body problem. See if you agree:
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Wednesday, August 26, 2020
What Makes This Recession Different From the Rest / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job;
it's a depression when you lose yours."
—Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President
In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression.
For some areas of the economy, that is clearly true. But not every area.
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Sunday, August 23, 2020
CPI Goes Up in July. Will Inflation Dragon Take to the Air with Gold? / Economics / Inflation
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
CPI rises again in July. But will the inflation dragon take to the air, taking gold with it?The U.S. CPI inflation rate rose 0.6 percent in July, for the second month in a row. The move was driven to a large extent by higher energy prices (the energy index increased 5.1 percent in June as the gasoline index rose 12.3 percent). The core CPI rose also 0.6 percent, following a 0.1 percent drop in May. It was the biggest monthly increase in the core rate since 1991.
On an annual basis, the overall CPI increased 1 percent (seasonally adjusted), following 0.7 percent increase in June. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose 1.6 percent, which implies the acceleration from 1.2 percent recorded in the previous month. So, as the chart below shows, inflation remains low, but it is no longer very low.
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Thursday, August 20, 2020
Economic Data Suggests Reopening, not Recovery. Will Gold Re-Rally Now? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Retail sales growth has slowed down. What does it mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market?Retail sales increased 1.2 percent in July. The growth was worse than expected, which hit the U.S. stock market. As the chart below shows, the number was also much weaker than in the two previous months (8.4 percent gain in June and 18.3 percent jump in May), when it seemed that the economy started to rebound.
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Sunday, August 16, 2020
Hyper-Chaotic Expectations Could Collapse US Economic Recovery Expectations / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As much as we may not want to deal with the reality of the situation, recent news from the state of California suggests it and many other states may be reaching the fiscal boundaries of the COVID-19 economic contraction. The reality of the economic situation is that when consumers are restricted from normal activities, taxes, sales, and revenues decrease for the state exponentially. States that depend on consumers and business activity with very large budgets are at greater risk of experiencing immediate fiscal issues the longer the COVID-19 virus event continues. A recent Moody’s Analytics article suggested Nevada, Hawaii, New York, Washington, Florida, DC, and Connecticut would be hit the hardest by the COVID-19 virus.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
The dramatic ascent of precious metals markets this summer reflects what could be just the start of a longer-term decline and fall in the Federal Reserve Note's value and status.
With gold prices surpassing $2,000/oz recently, the monetary metal has now made new all-time highs versus all the world’s major fiat currencies. Gold is, as former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has acknowledged, the “ultimate money.”
The Fed, by contrast, is the ultimate inflator.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
A current headline says “fears of currency debasement drive gold price higher”. Seems reasonable; and it is.
Historically, governments have been “debasing” their currencies for centuries. The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.
Since gold is original money and has proven itself to be a true store of value, then it should not be unexpected that gold’s higher price over time reflects that currency debasement.
The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.
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Wednesday, July 22, 2020
Protracted G7 Economic Contraction – or Multiyear Global Depression / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
Global growth prospects are deteriorating. Instead of a V-shaped recovery in the 2nd quarter, advanced economies will face historical carnage and a prolonged contraction. But there’s still worse ahead.
Current estimates for major advanced economies remain too optimistic, due to the mismanagement of the COVID-19, belated responses and premature exits, which have now caused far-earlier-than-expected secondary virus waves. As a result, the hoped-for V-shaped recovery will not happen in the 2nd quarter.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2020
How to benefit from the big US Infrastructure push / Economics / Infrastructure
By: Richard_Mills
The US economy continues to flounder like an East Coast freighter bashed by a mid-winter Nor-easter.
Fifty million claims is the latest unemployment milestone surpassed by the American workforce during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has drubbed the United States worse than any other country including China, where it started.
In a stark contrast of how the two biggest economies have fared, on Wednesday China reported its gross domestic product grew by 2.5% in the second quarter, beating analysts’ expectations and rebounding from a sickly first quarter when the country was assailed by the coronavirus. (Q1 output fell by 6.5%, the first quarterly GDP decline in China since 1992 when official records started being kept)
The news came as lockdowns to contain a second wave of covid-19 eased, and Beijing rolled out stimulus measures to keep its economy growing, including fiscal spending, cutting interest rates and lowering the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve.
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Sunday, July 19, 2020
Help the Economy by Going Outside / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
COVID-19 cases are growing fast in large parts of the US. The same folks who said the virus would just go away now say not to worry because fewer people are dying.
A lower mortality rate helps, but it’s still too high. The sheer number of sick people is straining hospital capacity some places. Viruses don’t care what anyone thinks; they just spread until something stops them.
The economy can’t recover if people fear infection everywhere they go. We need to balance public health and economic necessity.
Fortunately, scientists are learning how to reduce risk with fewer economic side effects.
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Sunday, July 19, 2020
The Six-Year Jobs Recession / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
Most of us work for some form of paycheck, even the self-employed. Few subsist on their own efforts. Even retirees, politicians, and welfare recipients live off someone’s labor, if not their own.
Savings, if you have any, are the result of past labor. That makes a job shortage problematic for everyone, not just the jobless.
The June US employment report showed some welcome improvement. Businesses brought back many workers as parts of the country reopened. That’s great but it was only a start. We need several more months like that, and it’s not at all clear they are coming.
To be fair, there isn’t a lot of clarity when we look back at past data, either.
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Wednesday, July 08, 2020
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
“The future progression of the pandemic remains highly uncertain.”
The Federal Reserve wrote those words to Congress in its recent “Monetary Policy Report.” These are usually rather vague, dry documents on everything the Fed is doing right and what could possibly go wrong. This report is more interesting than usual because so many things have gone wrong and may get even worse.
Not that the Fed has good answers, of course. But here’s what it does know.
Many of the first countries the virus struck—China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Italy, Spain—brought it under control with aggressive lockdowns, testing, contact tracing, social distancing, and isolation of confirmed cases.
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Monday, July 06, 2020
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
You can’t live without making certain presumptions. You presume your car will start, your refrigerator will stay cold, and the lights will turn on when you flip the switch.
In fact, you could argue this “predictability” is what separates advanced economies from primitive ones. Most of us don’t have to worry about being attacked in our sleep or having food tomorrow. That security frees us to do other things.
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Monday, July 06, 2020
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
The US economy entered recession at the end of February, according to the economists who officially define such things. But will it get even worse?
In some ways, this is already beyond the 1930s Great Depression. Mass unemployment happened much faster this time and it looks like millions will be jobless for a long time.
We can identify recessions statistically, but “Depression” is fuzzier.
Geopolitics expert George Friedman noted recently that recessions are a cyclical financial process. They’re painful, but the economy recovers. A depression is more than an especially severe recession. It changes the existential reality of daily life. The financial, business, and job consequences are only the beginning.
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Thursday, July 02, 2020
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the IMF downgraded most growth projections, due to weaker private consumption and elevated uncertainty in investment. Those are the twin engines of the Philippine economy. So, what’s ahead for economic recovery?
As I wrote in a report 2 months ago (click here), the global economic outlook of the International Monetary Fund (April 2020) was too optimistic. Last week, the IMF downgraded most of its projections. Now global growth is projected at -4.9% in 2020, almost 2 percentage points below the previous forecast.
Consumption growth has been downgraded for most economies, due to the larger-than-anticipated disruption to domestic activity. Worse, investment is expected to remain subdued as firms defer capital expenditures amid elevated uncertainty.
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Thursday, June 25, 2020
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Hainan Free Trade Port plan is aligned with China’s new Silk Road initiatives, the Greater Bay Area plan and deeper ties with Southeast Asia. Hong Kong’s real threats are closer and farther.
On June 1, the Chinese government published its Hainan masterplan. It seeks to transform the southernmost province, separated from Guangdong’s Peninsula by the Qiongzhou Strait, into a Free Trade Port (FTP). The plan will turn China’s largest and most populous island to its biggest special economic zone (SEZ).
The initiative stems from the early days of Chinese economic reforms. Following the first special economic zones in Guangdong and the opening of further 14 coastal megacities to overseas investment, the government disclosed its plan to transform Hainan into China’s largest SEZ in 1988.
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Friday, June 19, 2020
Worse than expected coronavirus contraction in ASEAN-4 Economies / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the coming months, success or failure to contain the global pandemic and overcome the coronavirus contraction has potential to make or break the promise of Southeast Asia in the early 21st century.
By the end of the 2nd quarter, the total number of confirmed cases may total close to 10 million, while deaths could surpass 225,000. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, due to the belated and inadequate mobilizations in the US and Europe.
In early year, the epicenter of the virus was in China and the rest of Asia. By March-April, it had moved to Europe and the United States. As I projected three months ago, global devastation would escalate by summer as the epicenter is shifting to emerging and particularly developing economies.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2020
Inflation ‘A mirror image of the early 1980s’ / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“To propose a return of inflation is to be inflammatory,” writes Lightman Investment Management’s Rob Burnett in an opinion piece for the Financial Times. “Investors are committed to a deflationary thesis — and such is their fervor that many believe inflation cannot return in any circumstance. Yet if we look beyond today’s demand shock from the Covid-19 crisis, the forces driving the disinflation of the past 40 years appear to be in retreat. … [T]oday appears like a mirror image of the early 1980s. We have moved from inflation peak to deflation trough.”
Evidence is beginning to mount that the new paradigm Burnett describes – moving from disinflation to inflation – might not be too far off the mark. During the financial crisis that began in 2008, the Fed sterilized its money creation by routing money back to its coffers in the form of commercial bank excess reserves – a strategy that kept the inflation rate from running out of control. As you can see in the first chart, the current level of sterilization, at least in the short term, is greater than what occurred in the 2008-2014 period. At the same time, as you can see in the second chart, the rapid growth in the money supply this time around goes beyond anything that occurred during the prior crisis. Whether or not Burnett is correct and the growth in the money supply translates to price inflation down the road remains to be seen. (Please take note that the growth in the money supply began roughly a year ago – well before the onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic.)
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Tuesday, June 09, 2020
Argentina, the World’s Biggest Deadbeat Economy / Economics / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Borrow, spend, default; lather, rinse, repeat.
On May 22, Argentina failed to meet interest payments on its sovereign debt. With that, the country tipped into default on its $65 billion mountain of foreign debt. If that’s not enough, Argentina’s provinces are addicted to debt and are buried in it, too. The province of Buenos Aires is already in default, and Cordoba, La Rioja, Salta, Rio Negro, and Chubut have also indicated that they plan to restructure their debt as well.
This is not the first time that Argentina has stiffed its creditors. No, it’s the ninth time. And it’s not Argentina’s largest default, either. Indeed, Argentina set the world’s default record when it defaulted on $95 billion in external debt in 2001. The bottom line is clear: Argentina is hands down the world’s biggest deadbeat.
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Thursday, June 04, 2020
East Asia Will Be a Post-Pandemic Success / Economics / Asian Economies
By: The_Gold_Report
In conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, Jayant Bhandari of Capitalism and Morality offers his take on what the post-COVID-19 world will look like.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Jayant Bhandari, the founder of Capitalism & Morality, and a highly sought-out advisor to institutional investors.
Jayant, there are a lot of mixed, contentious emotions regarding COVID-19. Irrespective of one's position, it's incumbent for us all to prepare for how the world will function going forward. Let's discover which parts of the world, and how readers may thrive in a post coronavirus world.
Sir, you recently wrote a musing entitled "What the Post Coronavirus World Looks Like." In this piece, you outlined a number of distinctions that may create a great divide between East Asia, the West and Third World countries. From a 30,000-foot perspective, who do you see coming out as the winners, when and if the world returns to some aspect of normalcy, and why?
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