Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
China’s First Half of 2017: Growth amid Deleveraging / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite seemingly mixed messages, China’s great shift from easing to tightening has begun. While growth will continue to decelerate, it can still remain on the deceleration track, even as deleveraging has begun.
In May, Moody’s Investor Service downgraded China’s credit rating. But it took less than a day for Chinese financial markets to recover from the downgrade. Recently, index giant MSCI announced the partial inclusion of China-traded A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. After all, China is currently under-represented in global equity indices relative to its economic influence. The inclusion is predicated on a long and gradual move.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 24, 2017
Proof That This Economic Recovery Narrative is False / Economics / US Economy
By: Sol_Palha
A hallucination is a fact, not an error; what is erroneous is a judgment based upon it. Bertrand Russell
The financial media has provided reams of data trying to lay out the case that this economic recovery is real. Many of the statistics provided do indeed support the theme that the outlook is improving. One must, however, keep these two facts in mind when looking at the data:
- The Fed poured huge amounts of money into this market. Minus the money, this so-called economic recovery would have never come to pass
- Due to the low-interest rate environment, corporation borrowed money on the cheap and poured billions into share buybacks since the crash of 2009.
Thursday, June 22, 2017
The Deflation Application / Economics / Deflation
By: Charles_Sizemore
Once in a while I see a financial news headline so obviously ridiculous, I feel I should look at the writer with pity in my eyes and pat them on the head, the way you might comfort a child that just dropped his ice cream cone on the floor.“Inflation is Right Around the Corner, Yellen Insists.”
Of course it is…
In defense of the columnist who wrote the story, these weren’t necessarily his views. He was simply relaying the Fed Chair’s comments from Wednesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
These 2 Charts Show Why Aging is Greatest Threat to US Budget and Deficits / Economics / Demographics
By: GoldCore
BY PATRICK COX : In its 2017 “Long-Term Budget Outlook,” The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paints a dire picture of US deficits and debt. It shows that the largest single contributing factor to our rising debt and deficits is aging.
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
Inflation is No Longer in Stealth Mode / Economics / Inflation
By: GoldCore
- IHS Markit index shows UK households pessimistic about finances for 2017-18
- UK household finances remain under intense pressure from rising living costs
- 58 percent of respondents expected higher interest rates in 12 months time
- Inflation in the United Kingdom currently at near four-year high
- Prices up prices by 2.9pc year-on-year, biggest annual increase since June 2013
- In May consumer spending in the UK fell for the first time in almost four years
Monday, June 19, 2017
Raise the Inflation Target and Put a Date on It! / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Raise the Inflation Target and Put a Date on It! That’s the direction some high-profile economist and former members on the FOMC want to go. According to these academics, including Narayana Kocherlakota the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009 to 2015, raising the inflation target just isn’t enough. They want to put a time horizon on it as well. In other words, they want to raise the inflation target higher than the current 2% level, and then place a firm date as to when that inflation goal must be achieved.
Saturday, June 17, 2017
Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
One of the true riddles in the economic world today is a steady drop in total global productivity over the last few decades. That’s in spite of the growing use of computers, robotics, and artificial intelligence.
In theory, productivity should have gone up, but it didn’t.
Professor and Nobel laureate Robert Gordon and others have foreseen that the GDP growth will decline to less than 1%, and they have all sorts of data to back up their claim.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 08, 2017
This Is The Most Profound Shift The US Economy Has Ever Seen / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
By Stephen McBride : This year, the first Baby Boomers turned 70, and that spells trouble for the economy and financial markets.
Speaking at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, dissected the wide-ranging implications of the wave of Baby Boomers now retiring.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 02, 2017
The Silent Economic Boom / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
[Note: I was recently interviewed by Kenneth Ameduri who hosts the Crush The Street internet show. In it I discuss my take on gold, stocks, Trump, the economy and Bitcoin. The interview can be found here: https://crushthestreet.com/videos/live-interviews/economic-bubble-burst-trumps-watch-clif-droke-interview]Though many Americans aren’t feeling it, the economy is quietly gathering forward momentum. With consumers gaining in confidence and real estate heating up on both the commercial and residential levels, the U.S. economy is much stronger than it may seem at first glance.
Thursday, June 01, 2017
About My Healthy Economic Fear of the Chinese / Economics / China Economy
By: Harry_Dent
There’s an old adage in finance concerning borrowing and lending: If you owe the bank $1 million, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, the bank has a problem.It’s all about scale.
When it comes to countries and markets, there is no scale, and therefore no problem, like the Middle Kingdom.
China is the land of the “biggest.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 01, 2017
The Next Recession May Be A Complete Reset Of All Asset Valuations / Economics / Recession 2017
By: John_Mauldin
Sometime this year, world public and private plus unfunded pensions will surpass $300 trillion. That is not even counting the $100 trillion in US government unfunded liabilities. Oops.
These obligations cannot be paid. A time is coming when the market and voters will realize this.
Will voters decide to tax “the rich” more? Will they increase their VAT rates and further slow growth? Will they reduce benefits? No matter what they decide, hard choices will bring political turmoil.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 25, 2017
5 Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In a typically ebullient presentation at Mauldin Economics’ 2017 Strategic Investment Conference on Tuesday, author, analyst, and trend-spotter Pippa Malmgren laid out key trends set to shape the early part of the 21st century.
Overall, the future is bright enough to need shades but also sunblock, according to Malmgren. The key thing we need is situational awareness. “Nobody saw the financial crisis, Brexit, or Trump coming,” she said. “I did. Not because I’m smarter than anyone else, but because people insist on looking at the world through a mathematical lens. This is a terrible mistake.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Louis Gave: Emerging Markets And Europe Will Outperform The US In The Next Decade / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Mauldin
By Stephen McBride : “The key to successful investing is not picking winners, it’s avoiding losers…” Louis Gave, the head of asset management at Gavekal Research, explains his investment philosophy at Mauldin Economics’ 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
How the China Belt and Road Could Change the 21st Century / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Until recently, globalization was led by the West and benefited only a few advanced economies. After China’s three decades of rapid growth, the Belt and Road initiatives hold potential for more inclusive globalization.During the weekend, the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation flooded Beijing with almost 30 heads of state and government leaders, 1,500 delegates from over 130 nations, and over 70 international organizations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 14, 2017
US Economy End Game On? / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
For many years now, thousands of bloggers, writers, and such have chronicled the debacle that is the USEconomy. It is a joke. That fact has been well-established. We can liken it to a cancer. Not every section is influenced in the same manner or degree of severity, but all areas are affected somehow. This publication has struggled to stay firmly on the economic side of the fence and not delve into politics – especially the personal type of politics where Mr. X is the bad guy, but Mr. Y is the good guy. We have, however, entered the arena of geopolitics or the politics of nation vs. nation on many occasions because this is where the arena of battle happens to be.
Friday, May 12, 2017
The Jobs Market Has Divided Into People Who Are Tech Savvy And Those Who Aren’t / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Things keep changing. And at an accelerating pace. One of the most important things to write about—and the most difficult—is the future of work. New Technology destroys old jobs, but it would also create new jobs and opportunities.
A clear example of this is the use of drone technology by the military. It requires about 100 people to prep and launch and maintain an F-16 for a single mission. Keeping an unmanned predator drone in the air for 24 hours requires about 168 workers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 12, 2017
Robots May Perform Half The Jobs In The US Within 20 Years: Here’s What That Could Mean / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Perhaps you don’t think the change that is upon us is a profound one. But consider this: Within two decades, half the jobs in this country may be performed by robots. What then of our unemployment rate? And what of our social safety net?
Opinion is divided. Will the next technological wave further skew the wealth distribution toward the uber-rich? Or will it ultimately create more entrepreneurial and job opportunities than it destroys?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 04, 2017
New Risk for Investors: Fed Considers Jacking Up Inflation Target / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Stefan Gleason : Investors are under-estimating inflation risk. As a consequence, they are under-pricing inflation protecting assets including precious metals.
The Federal Reserve has given itself the objective of engineering an inflation rate of around 2%. However, there are many ways in which real-world inflation can potentially outpace the Fed’s 2% target.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 24, 2017
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Austerity is over, proclaimed the IMF this week. And no doubt attributed that to the ‘successful’ period of ‘five years of belt tightening’ a.k.a. ‘gradual fiscal consolidation’ it has, along with its econo-religious ilk, imposed on many of the world’s people. Only, it’s not true of course. Austerity is not over. You can ask many of those same people about that. It’s certainly not true in Greece.
Friday, April 21, 2017
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
Nominal US household wealth is at an all-time high. But my friend Marc Faber (publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report) says that's mostly an illusion.
Below, Marc looks at the relationship between asset prices and US household wealth, and the effect of that relationship on the economy.
It seems the wealth of the top 0.1% has vastly improved in recent decades (and the top 10% haven’t done at all badly). But “the median household’s or asset owner’s wealth has declined by close to 40% in real terms (adjusted by the CPI) from its peak in 2007.”
Median household increases in wealth are also illusory because the main component of household wealth is pension fund assets (approximately US$22 trillion).
Read full article... Read full article...