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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

US Military Spending to Exceed Annual Deficits / Economics / US Military

By: Richard_Mills

“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” 
– President Dwight D. Eisenhower

The guns versus butter model portrays the relationship between a nation’s investment in defense and civilian goods. Because a country has finite resources, it must choose how much to spend on defense/ the military (guns), against the amount budgeted for items that are needed for non-defensive purposes (butter). Of course, it can also buy a combination of both, and most countries do.

The one nation that doesn’t have to bother with this, is the United States. Because the US holds the reserve currency, and all the exorbitant privilege that implies, it can spend on guns AND butter. Fact is, whenever the US government runs short on funds, it simply prints more money. Or borrows it, by issuing Treasury bills that are sopped up by domestic and foreign investors. The demand for Treasuries will always be resilient, so long as the dollar remains the reserve currency. This, however, may not be the case for much longer…

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Economics

Sunday, March 27, 2022

High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing, Recession Risk 2022 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK CP LIE Inflation hits 6.2%, whilst RPI that which most corporations raise their prices to has rocketed higher to 8.2% whilst real UK inflation stands at at least 15%, meanwhile across the atlantic US CP Lie inflation at 7.9 % stands on the bring of breaking above 8% with real inflation also at around 15% So much for the Pandemic deflationary depression that the clueless mainstream media had been promoting for the whole off 2020 and then sleep walked into mantra of transitory inflation of 2021, finally wakening during 2022 to what amounts to out control inflation of 2022.

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Economics

Friday, March 25, 2022

Crush inflation with These Magic Words / Economics / Inflation

By: Stephen_McBride

Are you feeling the pinch?

Inflation is getting out of hand.

I buy the same items every week at the grocery store… yet my bill has shot up 50% in the last six months.

Gas prices just hit $8/gallon here in Ireland… and the cost of heating a home jumped by roughly $500 this winter.

Today, I’ll show you the best way to crush inflation with your investments.

Hint: You want to buy companies that possess two magic words—more on that in a moment…

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Economics

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Inflation Big Picture / Economics / Inflation

By: Rambus_Chartology

One of the headlines this week was, the biggest rise in inflation since 1982. To put that into context we’ll need to look at some long term charts and what the Chartology looks like back then and today.

Right now everyone is trying to blame inflation on someone, regardless of the facts that I will present to you in the charts below. It is exactly the same thing when a Republican or Democrat is elected president. If a Republican is elected to the White House the Democrats will will say they will ruin the economy and the same thing will be said by the Republicans if a Democrat wins, it never ends.

We are going to hear the same rhetoric over and over again with inflation because most people don’t understand the big cycles that move through the markets that can last many years. We are currently seeing that in the stock markets right now that have been in a secular bull market since the 2009 crash low. Since the 2009 crash low we have had one Democrat president and one Republican as president with a new Democrat president that has been in office less than a year.

Before we look at tonights charts I would like to show you a satirical look at the, HISTORY CHART FOR THE END OF THE WORLD. What this chart shows you are all the events over the last 40 years that felt like the end of the world if you were trading the markets when they happened. Many of you were members during the 2020 crash and got to feel what an end of the world event felt like that all of the other end of the world events felt like  that never worked out for the bears.

If you recall on the day of the presidential election last year I made the BOLD statement that it wouldn’t make any difference who was elected president. By that I meant that the secular bull market that began in 2009 would continue unabated into the future and as you can see it has.

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Economics

Saturday, March 12, 2022

THE 2020's INFLATION MONSTER! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Many investors used to buying the dip are confused as to why rallies from the dip lows keep fizzling out with stocks once more resuming a trend to fresh lows, despite many if not most stocks now trading over 50% off their highs.

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Economics

Monday, March 07, 2022

A Recession Unlike Any Other / Economics / Recession 2022

By: Michael_Pento

The U.S. economy is already deteriorating due to the humongous fiscal and monetary cliffs. These cliffs are now being compounded by the war in Eastern Europe and near record-high inflation. And, the Fed's "PUT" is much lower and smaller in size than Wall Street believes.

The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the negative supply shocks that are already in place due to COVID-19. Worsening bottlenecks will combine with rising inflation to produce a contraction in global growth. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil supply and exports 18% of the world's wheat consumption. Ukraine accounts for 25% of global wheat production. Sanctions and war will serve to slow the economy further and send prices for these vital commodities even higher.

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Economics

Thursday, March 03, 2022

America’s Trade Deficit: An Enormous Concern / Economics / US Economy

By: Antonius_Aquinas

Another milestone (or more accurately millstone) was recently passed by the U.S. economy as the January trade deficit surged to an all-time record high of $107.6 billion, up some $26 billion from December’s $80.7 billion imbalance.*

Like the gigantic federal budget deficit, the trade imbalance is no longer talked about by the financial press. There has been little criticism of President Biden on either matter nor are Administration officials questioned about how things can be reversed. In fact, some commentators bizarrely contend that trade deficits show how robust an economy actually is!

The trade deficit was supposed to be alleviated by former President Trump who vowed throughout the 2016 campaign that he would rectify the situation and repeatedly ridiculed U.S. trade negotiators for their lack of financial acumen. He touted that his “friendship” with world leaders, most notably Chinese President Xi Jinping, would result in favorable trade deals for the country.

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Economics

Monday, February 28, 2022

White House Now Blames Its Inflation on “Defending Freedom” / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Rising geopolitical and inflation risks brought heightened volatility to markets this week.

Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine is being described as the worst attack on a European nation’s sovereignty since World War II.

In response, the Biden administration announced a new round of economic sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s government. The sanctions seek to economically isolate Russia and restrict its ability to market its products in the global economy.

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Economics

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Energy Shock: Ukraine Crisis to Push Inflation Higher / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

As Russia initiates military action in Ukraine, pain at the pump is about to get even worse.

Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints coupled with broader inflationary pressures. The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.55 – up 75 cents from a year ago. Some parts of the country are paying closer to $5.00 per gallon.

Now the threat of full-scale war in Ukraine is sending risk premiums in futures markets even higher. Crude oil futures jumped to over $100 per barrel ahead of the U.S. market open on Thursday morning.

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Economics

Thursday, February 24, 2022

UK Inflation at 30-year high / Economics / Inflation

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The rate of inflation in the UK is at its highest point for 30 years, according to recent government figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the consumer price index (CPI) used to measure inflation had risen to 5.5% for January 2022. Not since March 1992 (7.1%) have levels been this high and economists predict it could even eclipse that benchmark by April.

All of which is concerning news for the average consumer, but what exactly is inflation, how is it measured and what is causing it? Can the living wage keep up? And what are the potential consequences of such an increase? Read on to find out more.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Global Economic Recovery challenges amid new data on lingering pandemics / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

There is a common denominator between the Chinese holiday season and the COVID fight. That’s the effort to recover the pre-pandemic demand even amid new global waves of variants. There are lessons, too.

Around the world retailers aspire to reinforce sales during major holidays, which have a “multiplier effect” on revenue generation. Such efforts have greater impact when authorities implement additional policy measures to foster consumption.

With the new COVID-19 flare-ups in several cities, including Omicron infections in several Chinese cities, the country’s top economic planner, the NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) took measures to increase holiday spending and boost the economy during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, along with the Valentine’s Day.

What was the outcome?

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Economics

Monday, February 21, 2022

US stagflation overshadows China’s Economic recovery and global prospects  / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the IMF downgraded global growth prospects, due to projected slowdowns in the US and China. Negative prospects could be overcome with right policies, such as trade cooperation.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund projected that global growth rate will slow to 4.4% in 2022. In the dire international landscape, global recovery has remained elusive dream since 2017, when US trade wars derailed the impending expansion. Today, unwarranted geopolitics escalate tensions.

Worse, the failure to roll out vaccines could knock another $1.5 trillion from incomes across the South, according to UNCTAD report last fall.    
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Economics

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

US Price Inflation Rates Shoot Above the 1980 Peak / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Americans get fed a lot of BS when it comes to price inflation. Prices in the U.S. are rising faster than they were in the late 1970s when gasoline shortages triggered an economic crisis.

Today, supply chain disruptions and exploding prices are also nearing crisis levels.

Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic rise in dishonesty amongst politicians, bankers, and the corporate press on this subject. They hide the truth on inflation for a couple of reasons.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 / Economics / Stagflation

By: Dan_Steinbock

Until recently, the US Fed ignored America’s soaring inflation. Due to its belated response, the consequent risks will penalize the ailing global recovery.

In November, U.S. inflation surged to near 40-year high, at 6.8%. Only days later, the Fed indicated it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March, thus paving the way for interest rate hikes by the end of 2022.

It had been one of the worst inflation calls in the Fed’s history. One that will contribute to new uncertainty in the United States. Nor will it spare the rest of the world, including the world’s most dynamic region - Asia.
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Economics

Thursday, December 30, 2021

2022 – The Year of (Gold) Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

High inflation won’t go away in 2022. Good for gold. However, it is likely to continue to climb and reach its peak. That sounds a bit worse for gold.

If 2021 was tough for you, I don’t recommend reading Nostradamus’ predictions for the next year. This famous French astrologer saw inflation, hunger, and much more coming in 2022:

So high the price of wheat,

That man is stirred

His fellow man to eat in his despair

Yuk! So, life is about to get a little more complicated: we must now avoid becoming infected and being eaten by our fellow citizens! If you are interested in how cannibalism will affect the gold market, I’m afraid that I don’t have adequate data. Anyway, if you end up in the pot together with vegetables and your colleagues, gold’s performance probably won’t be your top priority.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Inflation Torpedoes Biden Agenda – Will It Next Wreck Financial Markets? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

President Joe Biden’s so-called “Build Back Better” agenda was dealt a likely fatal blow on Sunday. Moderate Democrat Joe Manchin announced that he would oppose his party’s massive $2 trillion spending bill.

That effectively kills it in its current form.

Chief among Senator Manchin’s reasons for opposing the Biden administration’s far-reaching spending scheme is inflation.

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Economics

Monday, December 20, 2021

Consumer Price Index (Less Food & Energy) Climbs To Highest Levels Since 2007-08 / Economics / Inflation

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I and Part II of this research article, I shared my research into the state of past and current US and global economy, Rest Of World Debt, DGP Implicit Price Deflator, Fed Funds Rates, and other technical data charts. The purpose of this article is to share with you two key components of the current US and global market trends; higher inflationary trends and a potentially trapped US Federal Reserve.

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

I will share more data/charts, and my proprietary US economy/Fed modeling systems results in Part III. My objective is to share my belief that the US Federal Reserve still has room to adjust interest rates (within reason) and how the US/global economy is starting to trend into the highest inflationary levels since 1975~1985. These levels could frighten traders/investors, but given the global economic constraints of the COVID lock-downs, I consider the current economic trends a symptom of the stimulus/solution – not necessarily an inherent economic trend. Allow me to explain my thinking in more detail.

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Economics

Friday, November 19, 2021

Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In this analysis I explain why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.

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Economics

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Last week’s surge in gold and silver prices was due, at least in part, to a realization by Wall Street traders that inflation isn’t going away.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had assured us all the trend higher in prices would be “transitory,” but another giant surge in the Consumer Price Index has investors wondering if they can believe anything Powell says.

They shouldn’t. People should view most of what Powell has to say about inflation in the same manner as they now view “14 days to flatten the curve” and other government lies.

Powell is well aware that higher prices are anything but temporary. For starters, many of the drivers behind higher prices are structural and won’t be disappearing any time soon.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: MoneyMetals

President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion “infrastructure” bill into law on Monday amid growing concerns that his administration’s policies are fueling higher inflation.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, is warning of an economically and politically ruinous inflation problem brewing.

He wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy” will “threaten prosperity and public trust unless clearly acknowledged and addressed.”

That was an apparent swipe at the Biden administration’s pattern of denials and misdirections whenever confronted about inflation.

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