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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, November 14, 2021

US Economy in Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Nadeem_Walayat

You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.

The Fed states US real GDP is currently +12% year on year . Now consider this, what inflation measure do you think the Fed is using to calculate these GDP figures? CPI? WRONG! GDP price deflator which tends to consistently under estimate inflation even against CPI as the following graph illustrates.

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Forget the official UK inflation indices which are just as fake as those in the US and those that spew out of the CCP, a year ago I estimated the REAL rate of UK inflation was 16%, today I estimate it to be near 20%! But that is the average amidst that there will be huge variances with the price of many goods, materials and services more than doubling! Case in point being UK energy / natural gas prices which have doubled and are on their way to tripling as the pieces of turd energy companies FAILED to HEDGE prices as they crept higher during the summer months because they knew at the end of the day they could just walk away from their contracts with customers, shut up shop and reopen under a slightly different name with the same staff and premises, WHAT A SCAM!

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Emerging Markets: How to Get a Grip on "Chaos of History" / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

Hi reader,

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is composed of 1,400 stocks from 27 nations. You'd think that the trillions of buy/sell decisions from across the region would result in a chaotic-looking chart.

But the opposite is true.

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

China Singles' Day - Toward Double 11 Record Sales, Despite Economic Uncertainties / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the world’s largest e-commerce market, China is likely to continue growing faster relative to North America and Western Europe. Singles’ Day 2021 will reflect that expansion.
Before the Singles Day, some observers thought that recent growth deceleration and continued regulatory scrutiny could dampen e-commerce in 2021. Yet, the full-year results may prove not that different from the past year.

On October 20, Alibaba and JD.com kicked promotions off already on October 20 since they are no longer restricted to a 24-hour time window. Last year, Alibaba’s Tmall reported sales of $78 billion in the first 10 days of November; 26 percent more than the previous year. This year, the Double 11 turnover is expected to increase solidly in absolute terms, even if the growth rate slows, due to last year’s high base.

In times of uncertainty, consumers are more cost-conscious. Due to broad discounts and promotions, that is expected to translate record sales during the Singles Day.

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Economics

Saturday, October 30, 2021

Central Planners Clinging to Hope That Inflation Is “Transitory” / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

As trading closes out for October ahead of Halloween, the specter of inflation is haunting markets.

While some investors still cling to the hope that it will be transitory, a growing number are now worried that pricing pressures and even shortages will intensify heading into Christmas – and possibly get worse in 2022. Discussions of the term “hyperinflation” have even made the rounds on social media following a warning from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.

More on that in a bit. But first, let’s review this week’s price action in precious metals markets.

Gold over the past few trading days has been oscillating around the $1,800 level. Prices currently come in at $1,783 an ounce to register a weekly decline of 0.9%.

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Economics

Friday, October 22, 2021

US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Wait things are even worse than that! You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: MoneyMetals

The stampede of dollars into the gold and silver markets has not yet begun. There is record demand for coins, rounds, and bars, but institutional money is still ignoring precious metals, for the most part.

Anyone wondering why, can find a clue in the current makeup of the U.S. economy.

The large majority of the nation’s spending, and wealth, is handled by people who don’t have much in common with gold bugs – at least not yet.

Let’s start with some data.

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Economics

Monday, October 18, 2021

Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Kelsey_Williams

INFLATION OR DEFLATION 

The debate continues but not much has been said that clarifies the issue for ordinary  investors. What follows in this article should help.

Inflation is the debasement of money by government and central banks. The Federal Reserve and all central banks practice inflation by expanding the supply of money and credit continuously and intentionally.  

This debasement of the money results in effects that are harmful and unpredictable. One of these effects of inflation is an unquantifiable loss of purchasing power in the money itself.

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Economics

Sunday, October 17, 2021

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

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Economics

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

The Demand Shock of 2022  / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Investors are growing cautious as we approach the fourth quarter, and their trepidation is justified. Here’s a brief summary of the situation: there is a potential global financial crisis stemming from the Chinese property market meltdown, supply chain bottlenecks are growing worse, Q3 Earnings warnings are being reported from many large corporations, interest rates are rising, inflation is at a 40-year high, tax hikes are coming in ’22, and the threat of a U.S. debt default still hangs in the air until the end of November.

The macroeconomic situation today is one of stagflation. Meaning, inflation rates are higher than normal at the same time GDP growth is slowing. To this point, the data shows that 6.2 million people lost their benefits in the week of September 11tt, as most government pandemic unemployment relief programs expired. These people all need to find a job, and quickly, to supplant that huge government weekly stipend that is now gone. Instead, we find that weekly layoffs are consistently higher than any other time since before the pandemic all the way back through 2015. And, we see that only 194k net new jobs were added during the month of September.
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Economics

Sunday, October 03, 2021

Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All / Economics / Inflation

By: P_Radomski_CFA

At a panel discussion, Fed Chair finally admitted that inflation could be more (!) long-lasting than expected. What does it mean? Hawks. Lots of them.

Capitulation

With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell finally having his ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment on Sep. 29, the central bank chief’s skittish words helped light a fire under the USD Index. For context, I’ve been warning for months that Powell remains materially behind the inflation curve. And with his indecisive speech upending the Fed’s confidence game, the gambit is showing signs of unraveling.

Speaking at an ECB panel discussion on Sep. 29, he said:

“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end. It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime or how long they last.”

For context, first it was “base effects,” then it was “transitory” and now “it’s very difficult to say.”

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Economics

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will soon announce the date for tapering its record-setting QE program, despite weakening jobs data.

The Non-farm Payroll Report for August severely disappointed Wall Street's expectations by coming in at just 235,000 net new jobs. Many on Wall Street—because they always look for a silver lining—are now trying to twist the near half-million jobs miss into something beneficial for stocks. This is because they claim the Fed's tapering of its asset purchase program will be delayed.

Nevertheless, the Fed is growing uncomfortable with the pace of stock and home price appreciation. And, doesn't think ending QE equates to a tightening of monetary policy. Of course, the Fed doesn't want to kill the economy by raising interest rates too rapidly. However, they have become very much aware that continuing to print $120 billion each month and further inflating the stock and real estate market has become absolutely dangerous. Inflating asset prices further and boosting CPI from this point would likely soon force the Fed into a regime of rapidly raising interest rates, which would kill the recovery and engender a severe recession.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 07, 2021

Weak August Payrolls: Why We Should Care / Economics / Employment

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

A disappointing nonfarm payrolls report came. If the Fed postpones the tapering announcement considerably, gold might be able to rally for longer.

They say that September is a good time for gold. Indeed, historically, gold used to shine during the ninth month, and the yellow metal also started this year’s September on a good note. As the chart below shows, it jumped above $1,800 on the last day of August, and it has continued its rebound since then.
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Economics

Friday, September 03, 2021

Prepare Now for Brutal Economic Austerity -- Here's Why / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: EWI

Here's what's holding together a "global house of cards"

When financial times get tough, you hear the phrases "tightening our belts," "cutting back" or "making do with less."

Those are common phrases to describe the word "austerity."

If spending and borrowing had been done with moderation when times were good, then the tough times would not be as tough -- or austere.

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Economics

Thursday, September 02, 2021

China’s theme park economy thriving, despite pandemic times  / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Against odds, theme parks are expanding in China, thanks to rising disposable income, investor confidence, and long-term opportunities.         

On September 1, Universal Beijing Resort, the largest of its kind in the world, will start its trial run. It is the most recent international chain in China’s thriving theme park industry.

Over 2008 to 2017, total theme park attendance increased at 13 percent annually. Today there are more than 200 theme parks in the Chinese mainland and their numbers continue to increase.

In an era of misguided global divisions, the impressive rise of theme parks in China shows the brighter promise of foreign investment and Sino-American cooperation.
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Economics

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

The Great Deflation of 2022 / Economics / Deflation

By: Michael_Pento

It is not very surprising to me that nearly every talking head on Wall Street is convinced inflation has now become a permanent feature in the U.S. economy. This is because most mainstream economists have no clue what is the progenitor of inflation. They have been inculcated to believe inflation is the result of a wage-price spiral caused by a low rate of unemployment.

In truth, inflation is all about the destruction of confidence in a fiat currency’s purchasing power. And there is no better way to do that than for the government to massively increase the supply of money and place it directly into the hands of its citizenry. That is exactly what occurred in the wake of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. government handed out the equivalent of $50,000 to every American family in various forms of loans, grants, stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment, tax rebates, and debt forbearance measures. In other words, helicopter money and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) were deployed—and in a big way. The result was the largest increase of inflation in 40 years.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Inflation Properly Defined / Economics / Inflation

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The use or rather misuse of language has always been an effective tool of politicians to enact their agendas.  George Orwell’s “Politics and the English Language” brilliantly showed, in his day, how language was being manipulated for all sorts of totalitarian measures:

Political language — and with variations this is true of all  political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists — is designed to make lies sound truthful
and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. One cannot change this all in a moment, but one can at least change one’s own habits, and from time to time one can even, if one jeers loudly enough, send some worn-out and useless phrase —
some jackboot, Achilles’ heel, hotbed, melting pot, acid test, veritable inferno, or other lump of verbal refuse — into the dustbin, where it belongs.*

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Economics

Saturday, August 14, 2021

Everything Peaked in 1980 – The Waning Effects Of Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

EVERYTHING PEAKED IN 1980

Both gold and crude oil peaked at all-time highs in 1980. Those highs are still intact when the effects of inflation are accounted for. Below are the charts for both gold and crude oil…

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Economics

Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Why the Fed is Wrong About 'transitory' Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Mills

If rising food prices are ruining your appetite, you’re not alone.

Costs of a number of grocery staples have been rising all year, including some that haven’t gone up in decades, such as peanut butter. Meats are seeing large increases, with the price of chicken climbing 8%, and pork and beef increasing about 5%.

According to Statistics Canada, via CTV News, two breakfast ‘staples,’ coffee and peanut butter have gone up significantly since January, a respective 17% and 6%. Canada’s Food Price Report predicts that prices will increase 5% this year, adding almost $700 to the average Canadian family’s grocery bill.

In the United States, US consumer prices hit their highest level in 13 years in May, jumping 5% from May 2020. The US Department of Labor says rising costs of meat products and baked goods led the surge in food prices.

“We’re in a period of unprecedented commodity inflation,” Unilever CEO Alan Jope told investors in early June.

According to Business Insider, US food prices are rising in tandem with broader inflation, with the CPI hitting 5.4% in June. Prices are climbing due to key commodities becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, shipping delays, labor shortages (for example in meat packing plants, hit hard by covid-19) and severe droughts in a number of countries (more on that below).

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Economics

Thursday, August 05, 2021

Political Hacks Concoct Excuses for Their Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Jerome Powell, after last week’s FOMC meeting, said inflation has run hotter than expected. However, he wants to assure Americans that the destruction of their dollars’ purchasing power is temporary.

His diagnosis? Ballooning demand for goods and services when the U.S. economy reopened from COVID shutdowns drove prices higher.

Rest easy, folks. Prices will stop surging as soon as demand moderates and supply catches up!

That’s the official line, anyway.

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