Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, November 09, 2022
RECESSIONS 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of economic activity of all the major economies the US is the most robust so Recession delayed, which may never materialise. Meanwhile the rest of the world, especially Europe is scrambling to counter soaring energy bills and economic stagnation.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
The Fed Induced Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Dan_Steinbock
From early 2020 to early 2021, the Fed funds rate had been at 0.25%. Though the inflation rate in the US slowed for the third month to 8.2% in September 2022, it remained above market forecasts.
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
US Dollar Strength Implications for Global Economies / Economics / Global Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US Dollar Big Picture
Ultimately the fate of the dollar bull market is to spike in a blow off top and then collapse in spectacular style, probably at a faster pace then it is currently going higher.
Now don't take this chart as a literal trend forecast as I don't have the time to undertake such a study right now but it is a rough picture of what I have in mind of how the dollar trend could play out. There will be plenty of time to define a forecast trend pattern over the coming years.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..
I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!
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Thursday, October 20, 2022
UK in CRISIS - Liz Truss Resigns, Inflation Nightmare, Soaring Interest Rates, Economic CRASH! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt, the Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given!, Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson, parties, stoopid media wasted thousands of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless, after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!
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Sunday, September 25, 2022
INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big questions for the US and how our US tech stocks will fair over the coming year are -
1. Does the Federal Reserve finally understand just how dangerous inflation actually is ?
2. If it does then how is it going to subvert the inflationary policies of the White house, does not matter which clown is in office i.e. democrat or republican, BOTH have tendencies towards rampant money printing given the 4 year election cycle.
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Monday, September 05, 2022
“Countering” China would pave the way to Global Economic Depression / Economics / China
By: Dan_Steinbock
In its pursuit for unipolar primacy, the Biden administration is risking the economic stability of China, the West, emerging Asia, and the futures of the Global South.
Before the global pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported China had replaced the United States as the engine of the global economy. In parallel, Reuters market analyst Jack Kemp warned that since early 2018, "the United States has pursued a deliberate policy of attempting to hurt China’s economy in response to concerns about the shifting balance of economic power and unfair trade practices.”
As economist Anne O. Krueger saw it, Trump’s trade war was “a failure that harmed both China and the US.” Consequently, many hoped that Biden's victory would come with a bilateral reset. But the reverse happened.
Building further on Trump’s flawed policies, the Biden White House began to weaponize those policies while diversifying risks to U.S. allies – from the EU and Japan to Ukraine and Taiwan.
Tuesday, August 09, 2022
Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The idiot in charge of the Bank of England Bailey now warns of 13% inflation, 5 quarter deep uk recession, and requests Britains workers not ask for high pay rises due to the risks of the wage price spiral, despite paying himself 575,000 for making a dogs dinner of the economy. So are his predictions going to come true, we'll a year ago he was barking about transitory inflation and a growing economy ahead! Completely clueless idiot!
The problem is this the Bank of England CAUSED the INFLATION by means of rampant money printing that they then used to monetize near half of UK government debt! That's what caused the inflation! And now the morons are trying to fight 10% inflation with 1.75% interest rate, Bailey and his fellow morons do not have clue, they are literally fumbling in the dark for the light switch and we pay the price for these clowns!
As for the wage price spiral, it does not exist, there is no wage price spiral instead it is a price wage spiral! i.e. Wages are trying to catch up to out of control inflation and failing to do so hence the cost of living crisis where wages cannot keep up with prices in the shop.
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Saturday, August 06, 2022
COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! / Economics / Inflation
By: N_Walayat
The Inept Governor of the Bank of England has miserably FAILED in the banks primary remit of pegging inflation at 2%. This video illustrates why the Cost of Living Crisis will soon become a decade long nightmare for most Brits.
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Friday, August 05, 2022
WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
When one looks under CPI inflation hood then one sees strong signs of inflation topping, given what we have already seen transpire in the commodities markets such as Gasoline prices having fallen since the May inflation report and many of the components such as Airfares also turning lower.
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Thursday, August 04, 2022
What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raymond_Matison
According to Webster’s dictionary, the definition of prognosis is a forecast, or a prediction of a probable course of a disease in an individual, and the chances of recovery. In this article, we apply this definition of prognosis to our inanimate, yet seemingly “living and breathing” economy, and project its chances of recovery.
The world is filled with intelligent and highly experienced economists, and thousands of financial market observers who can give us a lucid and convincing interpretation of our economy and health of our financial markets. As a result, you can find widely recognized professionals who will diagnose and predict the direction of our economy and financial health as to support our own personally biased view of reality – regardless of what that may be. But independent of our own personally preferred views, what is the most probable reality we are likely to experience? What is the real economic and financial prognosis?
Government agencies and media are increasingly filled with unjustifiably adjusted and manipulated economic data, directed and misdirected propaganda, and outright lies, such that it is nearly impossible to judge the real strength or direction of the economy and the health of our financial markets. Since small and developing nations are quickly learning these “tricks of the trade”, international media and government agencies are universally now also dispensing politically favorable rhetoric rather than truth. So what measures can we review to accurately evaluate the health of our economy?
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Why UK Cost of Living Crisis Will Get X10 Worse! Britain Heading for INFLATION CATASTROPHE! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation has just nudged higher to 9.4% that is prompting the always wrong crowd to crow loudly about how peak inflation being just around the corner, however the herd remains completely blind to what is set to follow over the remainder of this decade and the funnel all of their weak brain power into regurgitating the same annual percentage change graphs, all whilst missing the Inflation big picture that warns that even if peak inflation i just around the corner to soon to be followed by inflation falling to say 6% or even 5%, however this is not going to make any difference to the INFLATION PAIN that is going to manifest over the coming years,
Britain's inflation goose is well and truly cooked as our inept government and even more moronic central bank have sleep walked Britain to back to the 1970;s which will manifest in a cost of living crisis that most are unprepared for as my latest video illustrates.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
What’s with all the Pretend Economists all of a Sudden? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Is everyone an economist now?These days, everyone I speak with has a strong opinion on the economy.
Most are convinced things will get worse.
They think the US economy is headed off a cliff, and that inflation is here to stay.
As a result, they also want nothing to do with stocks. They’re certain that the entire market is about to collapse.
I see things differently…
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Saturday, July 16, 2022
Fed-Induced Recession Looms as Rate Fears Roil All Markets / Economics / Recession 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Another pair of alarming inflation reports jolted markets this week.
On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high.
The biggest contributors to rising consumer prices are the basic necessities of food, fuel, and shelter. As households struggle to make ends meet, they are trimming discretionary spending, burning through savings, and running up credit card balances.
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Friday, July 15, 2022
Peak Inflation is Not the Issue / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
The reality of record-high inflation combined with a hawkish monetary policy is slowing the economy sharply and has led to the current U.S. recession—two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The economic contraction should soon cause inflation to roll over along with bond yields; but that isn’t necessarily indicative of a new bull market. It is much the same process that occurred leading up to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.The major difference is that the level of inflation today is much greater than it was 15 years ago--a white-hot 9.1% for June of 2022, which is actually close to 20% if calculated using the same method back in 1980. That level is much greater than the 4.1% in December of 2007. Inflation may be peaking, but it is peaking at over 4.5x greater than the Fed’s target. Meaning, the FOMC will find it very difficult to give up its inflation fight anytime soon. It would be a different story if the Effective Fed Funds Rate was trading close to the Fed’s neutral range, which Mr. Powell believes is close to 2.5%, not the 1.58% seen today. With CPI at 9.1% and its balance sheet at $8.9 trillion, it is untenable for the Fed to remain stimulative to inflation. Indeed, the FOMC wants the interbank lending rate at 3.5-4.0% by the end of 2022.
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Sunday, July 03, 2022
New Signs Economic Turmoil Will Prompt Fed to Lose Its Nerve / Economics / Recession 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As trading kicks off for the month of July and the second half of the year, investors are hoping for a third quarter rebound.
It’s been a brutal year so far in financial markets. The S&P 500 is down over 20%. Bitcoin has crashed by 60%. Bonds have provided no safe haven amid hot inflation. And spiking mortgage rates point to a potential calamity in the housing market.
As for gold, the monetary metal is essentially flat for the year. It may not be cause for celebration, but gold holders have at least obtained some shelter from broader market volatility.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2022
Recession Question Answered / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Michael_Pento
President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the entirety of the money printers who inhabit the Federal Reserve and virtually all of the deep state of Wall Street are still busy trying to convince you that a recession is unlikely. Well, here’s some news for all of them. Whether or not we will have a recession is no longer a question. The recession is already here. The only question is, how deep the recession will become.The consumer is getting attacked on all fronts and their consumption accounts for nearly 70% of GDP. Falling real wages, spiking debt service costs, plunging crypto currencies, sinking stock prices and battered bond values are seriously injuring their financial health. And coming soon to a theater near you, a real estate wreck is in the offing. Instead of home prices rising 20% per annum, like they have over the last couple of years, the pace of home price appreciation should soon decline sharply. Home affordability is at a record low, while new listings and price reductions are on the rise. Home equity extractions have been severely depressed due to rising mortgage rates. And now, depreciating real estate values shut down to the bad consumer habit of relying on equity extraction to boost consumption.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2022
US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing / Economics / Recession 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. economy appears headed for a hard landing.
After months of ignoring the steadily growing inflation problem, the Federal Reserve is now using monetary blunt force to try to rein in rising prices.
Fed policymakers have effectively decided that inflation is so out of hand, they are willing to induce an economic slowdown that will reduce aggregate demand for goods and services.
The recent carnage in the stock market suggests that the Fed’s suddenly aggressive rate hikes are going to crimp consumer borrowing and hurt retail sales.
Sunday, June 12, 2022
Shrinkflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets enter summer trading with investors looking for signs of a directional move.
Gold and silver prices consolidated this spring with silver showing more of a downside bias. Silver did find 200-week moving average support at the $21 level in early May, however. That long-term trend indicator is also now heading in an upward direction. So, there is a good chance that the lows for the year are in.
Metals markets have yet to fully reflect broader inflation pressures in the economy, a statement you’ve heard us repeat many times in recent months.
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Friday, June 10, 2022
The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential / Economics / Crack Up BOOM
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Whilst everyone is rightly focused on the BEAR MARKET that continues to cycle through stocks delivering sharply lower prices (buying opps), and as bad as things are likely to get i.e. this bear market has a lot further to run. Nevertheless there are mega-trends under way (monsters) that likely will deliver new all time highs for all of my primary AI tech stocks, though at that time most folks could have far more to worry about than stock prices.
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