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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, July 15, 2022

Peak Inflation is Not the Issue / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

The reality of record-high inflation combined with a hawkish monetary policy is slowing the economy sharply and has led to the current U.S. recession—two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The economic contraction should soon cause inflation to roll over along with bond yields; but that isn’t necessarily indicative of a new bull market. It is much the same process that occurred leading up to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

The major difference is that the level of inflation today is much greater than it was 15 years ago--a white-hot 9.1% for June of 2022, which is actually close to 20% if calculated using the same method back in 1980. That level is much greater than the 4.1% in December of 2007. Inflation may be peaking, but it is peaking at over 4.5x greater than the Fed’s target. Meaning, the FOMC will find it very difficult to give up its inflation fight anytime soon. It would be a different story if the Effective Fed Funds Rate was trading close to the Fed’s neutral range, which Mr. Powell believes is close to 2.5%, not the 1.58% seen today. With CPI at 9.1% and its balance sheet at $8.9 trillion, it is untenable for the Fed to remain stimulative to inflation. Indeed, the FOMC wants the interbank lending rate at 3.5-4.0% by the end of 2022.
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Economics

Sunday, July 03, 2022

New Signs Economic Turmoil Will Prompt Fed to Lose Its Nerve / Economics / Recession 2022

By: MoneyMetals

As trading kicks off for the month of July and the second half of the year, investors are hoping for a third quarter rebound.

It’s been a brutal year so far in financial markets. The S&P 500 is down over 20%. Bitcoin has crashed by 60%. Bonds have provided no safe haven amid hot inflation. And spiking mortgage rates point to a potential calamity in the housing market.

As for gold, the monetary metal is essentially flat for the year. It may not be cause for celebration, but gold holders have at least obtained some shelter from broader market volatility.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Recession Question Answered / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Michael_Pento

President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the entirety of the money printers who inhabit the Federal Reserve and virtually all of the deep state of Wall Street are still busy trying to convince you that a recession is unlikely. Well, here’s some news for all of them. Whether or not we will have a recession is no longer a question. The recession is already here. The only question is, how deep the recession will become.

The consumer is getting attacked on all fronts and their consumption accounts for nearly 70% of GDP. Falling real wages, spiking debt service costs, plunging crypto currencies, sinking stock prices and battered bond values are seriously injuring their financial health. And coming soon to a theater near you, a real estate wreck is in the offing. Instead of home prices rising 20% per annum, like they have over the last couple of years, the pace of home price appreciation should soon decline sharply. Home affordability is at a record low, while new listings and price reductions are on the rise. Home equity extractions have been severely depressed due to rising mortgage rates. And now, depreciating real estate values shut down to the bad consumer habit of relying on equity extraction to boost consumption.
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Economics

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing / Economics / Recession 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The U.S. economy appears headed for a hard landing.

After months of ignoring the steadily growing inflation problem, the Federal Reserve is now using monetary blunt force to try to rein in rising prices.

Fed policymakers have effectively decided that inflation is so out of hand, they are willing to induce an economic slowdown that will reduce aggregate demand for goods and services.

The recent carnage in the stock market suggests that the Fed’s suddenly aggressive rate hikes are going to crimp consumer borrowing and hurt retail sales.

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Economics

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Shrinkflation! / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter summer trading with investors looking for signs of a directional move.

Gold and silver prices consolidated this spring with silver showing more of a downside bias. Silver did find 200-week moving average support at the $21 level in early May, however. That long-term trend indicator is also now heading in an upward direction. So, there is a good chance that the lows for the year are in.

Metals markets have yet to fully reflect broader inflation pressures in the economy, a statement you’ve heard us repeat many times in recent months.

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Economics

Friday, June 10, 2022

The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential / Economics / Crack Up BOOM

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Whilst everyone is rightly focused on the BEAR MARKET that continues to cycle through stocks delivering sharply lower prices (buying opps), and as bad as things are likely to get i.e. this bear market has a lot further to run. Nevertheless there are mega-trends under way (monsters) that likely will deliver new all time highs for all of my primary AI tech stocks, though at that time most folks could have far more to worry about than stock prices.

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Economics

Friday, June 10, 2022

Food and Gas Prices: Is the Rising Trend (Finally) Ending? / Economics / Inflation

By: EWI

The Elliott wave structure of a key commodity ETF provides a clue

Consumers around the globe are wondering when they will finally see some relief from rising prices at the gas pump and grocery store.

It's difficult for these consumers to get a handle on what to expect from reading recent headlines because some are conflicting.

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Economics

Saturday, June 04, 2022

Inflation Mutation - This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day.

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Economics

Sunday, May 29, 2022

What is the Crackup Boom? / Economics / Crack Up BOOM

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crackup boom as theorised by :Ludwig von Mises in the 1920's in the face of Austrian hyperinflation is when the masses wake up to the inflation game the government and the central bank have been playing, that of printing money on an epic scale that devalues the value of fiat currency resulting in ever higher price rise in the shops coupled with increasing lack of supply as prices rise due to producers / sellers inclined to slowdown the process of delivery for higher future prices in response to which the government prints even more money to placate the masses in response to demands the government do something to address the "cost of living crisis".

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Economics

Friday, May 27, 2022

How the United States Conquered Inflation Following the Civil War / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

By Larry Reed : Americans today are once again the victims of price inflation brought on by runaway government spending and printing of unbacked paper money.

According to the most recent polling data, the American public’s approval of Congress stands at a dismal 21 percent. Almost four times as many people disapprove of the job it’s doing.

That’s par for the course in recent decades. It’s the major reason the Washington sausage grinder earns so little praise. To be fair, though, let’s review an occasion when lawmakers got something right. I’m prompted to share this story now because its lessons are especially relevant considering today’s concerns about rising price inflation. The year was 1875.

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Economics

Friday, May 27, 2022

Greater Depression Now!? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Raymond_Matison

Most investors know that a recession is defined by a decline in national GDP for two quarters, that is, two three month periods.  Investors also have experienced economic pundits writing or announcing that “we may experience a recession in the next several quarters, or expect one in the next one to two years”.  It seems that we are actually never in a recession, but rather a recession may be experienced by the public in the not too distant future. 

In one respect that viewpoint is understandable since it takes several months for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to confirm that the economy has previously experienced two quarters of negative growth, and thus they can never confirm that we are in a recession, but rather we can only know with a lag that we have previously experienced a recession.  It could take up to a year for the NBER to confirm that we were in a recession, but by the time they are able to confirm this fact – we may already have exited that recession.  Also, it requires significant lags of time to confirm that the economy continues to remain in a recession.  Thus, such information may be valuable and interesting to economists, but because of reporting and confirmation lags, it has essentially no value to the consumer.

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Economics

Friday, May 20, 2022

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A reminder folks that regardless of Fed propaganda and what you read in the mainstream press QE is 4 EVER! Once it starts it will not stop. As I have been iterating for over a decade now as the following excerpt from 3 years ago illustrates (Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019) that CRISIS ARE MONEY PRINTING EVENTS TO CAPITALISE UPON BY INVESTING IN ASSETS THAT ARE LEVERAGED TO INFLATION!

So why has the the stock market soared, what is that the stock market knows that most commentators and economists fail to comprehend? We'll for one thing there are the dovish signals out of the Fed which go beyond a pause in their interest rate hiking cycle in response to a subdued inflation outlook. Similarly the worlds other major central banks have their own reasons to avoid rate hikes, most notable of which is the Bank of England that has been busy propagandising the prospects of a NO Deal Brexit Armageddon in attempts to scare Westminister into avoiding EXITING the European Union in anything other than an ultra soft BrExit.

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Economics

Friday, May 20, 2022

US Real Estate Investors – Is There An End In Sight? / Economics / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US stock market contracted sharply over the past 30+ days while traders attempted to identify the risks associated with the US Fed rate increase. Behind the scenes, real estate investors and homeowners are under pressure due to higher costs on nearly everything. Gas, food, everyday items, credit card interest payments – almost everything costs more due to inflation and increasing fuel costs.

I remember in 2007-08 when Oil reached levels above $140ppb and the seemingly high costs of everything just before inflation peaked and the markets turned bearish. Back then, much like today, a period of extreme speculation seemed to permeate buyers and investors throughout the US.

What broke this trend was the Global Financial Crisis. When the economy started to unravel, excessive credit/debt levels suddenly became unmanageable for nearly everyone. What seemed like a reasonable and manageable amount of debt suddenly became excessive as the US Fed raised the Fed Funds rate from 1.0% to 5.5% – a 450% increase.

Recently, we’ve seen the US Federal Reserve raise rates from 0.25% to 1.0%. The Fed may raise rates again soon, trying to tame inflation. I don’t have a crystal ball, but it is not difficult to understand how inflation, higher consumer costs, and increased debt servicing costs are going to panic many real estate investors, especially after many years of ZIRP and low inflation.

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Economics

Monday, May 16, 2022

Sanctions, trade wars worsen US inflation / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

The Fed’s aggressive and belated rate hikes will escalate economic challenges in the US and elsewhere, thanks to ill-advised sanctions and trade wars.

Recently, the Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to a range of 0.75%-1%, following a smaller rise in March. It was the Fed’s biggest increase in 22 years.

Last fall, Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, still characterized rising prices as "transitionary" which would not leave “a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation.”

So, when inflation began to climb rapidly after mid-year 2021, the Fed ignored it until it soared.             
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Economics

Friday, May 13, 2022

UK Public Debt Smoking Inflation Gun / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britains debt mountain has long since passed the £2 trillion pound mark, so how come the UK managed to do this without paying the piper? A free lunch given low UK bond interest rates, we'll it's because the Bankster of England has MONETIZED near HALF of Britains DEBT! Now do you understand where the INFLATION is coming from? Yes, as I wrote 12 YEARS AGO in my 100 page Inflation Mega-trend ebook that Inflation is by DESIGN caused by rampant government money printing that the central banks monetize! Which the Bank of England has now done to the tune of near £1 trillion! Which resolves in a fake debt to GDP graph such as the one below that the academic economists get their knickers in a twist over without able to think outside of the box and realise the fundamental fact that actual UK market debt is HALF that which is being reported because the Government is effectively PAYING ITSELF INTEREST on HALF of it's debt! Why don't the clowns in MSM report on any of this? After all It's not rocket science!

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Economics

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

RECESSION RISKS 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly it does not actually matter if a recession materialises during 2023 or not all that matters is most people THINK it's going to happen, for asset prices discount the future which is why today stock prices are falling even if that is not being reflected in the stock indices due to the Stocks Bear Market Tornado which I will cover in depth in a forthcoming stocks article. Nevertheless there is a RISK of inflation that I have been flagging a warning of a good 6 months BEFORE the current Yield Curve inversion.

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Economics

Saturday, May 07, 2022

Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver / Economics / Stagflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Knock out 20% of the world's gas exports and 10% of the worlds exports and how can you not expect even higher inflation. Even worse for Europe where several nations such as Germany rely on Russia for upto 40% of their gas. Whilst for the UK 4% of russian gas may not sound like much but the impact has been on gas prices that had already soared several fold before the Ukraine invasion have now doubled once more. with the risks that the sanctions blitzkrieg prompts Russia to pull the plug on EU gas that will trigger gas rationing among many nations such as Germany and Italy which means INDUSTRY will take a hit thus further disrupting supply chains and hence continuing to put upwards pressure on prices as component and finished goods supply chains are further disrupted which easily translates into EU inflation surging higher by an additional 2% and reduction in GDP of at least 0.5%.

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2022

High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing, Fed Strategy Revealed / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK CP LIE Inflation hits 6.2%, whilst RPI that which most corporations raise their prices to has rocketed higher to 8.2% whilst real UK inflation stands at at least 15%, meanwhile across the atlantic US CPLIE inflation of 7.9 % stands on the brink of breaking to well above 8% with real inflation also at around 15% So much for the Pandemic deflationary depression that the clueless mainstream media had been promoting for much of 2020 and then sleep walked into the mantra of transitory inflation for the whole of 2021, finally awakening during 2022 to what amounts to out control inflation, though like gullible fools swallowing the central bankster's sales pitch of laying the blame on Czar Putin's Afghan War 2.0 in Ukraine which illustrates the extent to which what you read in the mainstream press tends to be garbage written by clueless journalists.

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Economics

Thursday, April 21, 2022

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Protect Your Wealth From Loss of Purchasing Power / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Inflation has soared to a 30+ year high even on the highly manipulated CPLIE measure resulting in the biggest fall in living standards since records began for the UK and probably similar for US and most western households who are in for a deep real terms drop in disposable income during 2022, with the UK set for an eye watering record plunge of over £2200 per household. Which if you remained focused on the mainstream press then you would not have seen any of it coming having been hoodwinked for the whole of 2021 by the central bank mantra of 'transient inflation' which as I repeatedly warned would turn out to be PERMANENT. However the con merchants are now playing the blame everything on Russia game, as if inflation and all of the West woes were none existant until Putin delusionally marched his amateur army into Ukraine having believed his own lies echoed by his YES Men ensuring him that victory would come within days of invasion.

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Economics

Thursday, April 07, 2022

This Recession indicator just sent a warning: here’s the takeaway / Economics / Inflation

By: Stephen_McBride

There’s a lot of fear in the markets right now.

Inflation…

The war in Ukraine

Rising interest rates…

And now the “inverted yield curve.”
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