Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 05, 2018
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has done it again. In an attempt to garner some press, the head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department Alejandro Werner forecasted that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will reach 1,000,000% by year’s end. By my calculations, this inflation forecast implies that the exchange rate will reach 923 million VEF/USD by December 2018. To put this into context, the exchange rate at the end of July was 3.3 million VEF/USD, and at the end of June it was 3.1 million VEF/USD.
Saturday, August 04, 2018
Cracking Down on Immigration Impact on US Economy / Economics / Immigration
By: Harry_Dent
There was a great article in Bloomberg Opinion by Noah Smith.It starts off reminding us that we’re doing similar things now as we were in the late 1920s, before the 1929 crash and Great Depression.
During a major bubble, the Fed started tightening in 1928.
In 1930, Smoot-Hawley was passed. It raised import duties, which set off a trade war.
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Thursday, August 02, 2018
Are You Ready For Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The market is sensing a major turn.
As I’ve noted before, the currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets on the planet. As such they sense changes first.
With that in mind, consider that the “inflation” currencies are showing a major turn in the $USD.
First and foremost, the Australian Dollar: $USD pair looks to have bottomed. We have a clear bullish falling wedge formation being broken to the upside. We should expect a retest of former support (red line) at the very least.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dan_Amerman
Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008?
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Sunday, June 17, 2018
The Corruption of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Harry_Dent
I call it “killing the golden goose.”David Stockman, a speaker at this year’s Irrational Economic Summit, calls it “the corruption of capitalism.”
Andrew O’Hehir, a contributor for Salon, recently interviewed Yanis Varoufakis about the story behind Greece’s financial crash. He was the prime minister during the height of the Greek crisis, elected in early 2015 in response to the Greece debt default crisis.
And in July of 2015, Varoufakis resigned after the ECB (European Central Bank) and IMF (International Monetary Fund) forced a bailout package that went against what he and his SYRIZA party had promised the Greek people.
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Sunday, June 17, 2018
What Are Corporate Tax Cuts Doing to Wages? / Economics / Wages
By: Harry_Dent
There’s no end to the insanity. Our central bankers and politicians are trying to keep this artificial bubble going at all costs.How shortsighted. How arrogant. How selfish!
These politicians will be roasted in history, not just for creating the greatest bubble ever, but for extending it far beyond any logic.
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Sunday, June 17, 2018
Comparing Wages Globally / Economics / Wages
By: Harry_Dent
Finally! I recently came across this great analysis that the OECD (the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) did to show how well off workers in different countries are after adjusting for income and entitlement taxes, like social security and health care.Basically, it measures what people get paid for a fair day’s work.
And we’re not talking average household income here. Household numbers are affected by choices: whether both spouses work full-time, one part-time, or one not work at all… Female participation rates AND the number of kids one chooses all have an effect on per capita numbers.
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Thursday, June 14, 2018
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy / Economics / Gambling
By: Steve_Marks
A Powerful Influence
Unless you have been sleeping under a rock in a cave, on a different planet, chances are you have noticed or heard about the recent rise in online gambling. Pretty much everything you can imagine is now moving to the online space, and gambling being such a lucrative industry, you can bet that bringing that industry to the world wide web has made a powerful impact on the economy.
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Wednesday, June 13, 2018
The $USD Thinks the Fed Will Choose Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed meets today, and whatever happens will be a BIG “tell” for the rest of the year.
On the one hand, inflation is clearly seeping fully into the financial system. Even the ridiculously massaged CPI measure of inflation shows it is close to 3%.
This would suggest the Fed would move aggressively to hike rates to curb inflation.
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Tuesday, June 12, 2018
The Dangers of Investing Based on Phony Government Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump recently took to Twitter to boast, “The U.S. has an increased economic value of more than 7 Trillion Dollars since the Election. May be the best economy in the history of our country. Record Jobs numbers. Nice!”
“We ran out of words to describe how good the jobs numbers are,” reported Neil Irwin of the New York Times, amplified in a Trump retweet.
If you believe the headline numbers, joblessness is at a generational low with the economy booming.
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Friday, June 08, 2018
U.S. Jobless Claims Lower than Expected / Economics / Unemployment
By: Donald_W_Dony
The U.S. Unemployment rate just posted a new 45-year low. That is good news for the S&P 500.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 1 thousand to 222 thousand in the week ending June 2. This occurred after the previous week's revised level of 223 thousand and below the market's expectations
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Thursday, June 07, 2018
The US Dollar Has Already Figured Out That Inflation is Coming / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed has gone dovish. In fact, it’s going to allow inflation to explode higher.
That, in of itself, is significant… to understand why, we first need to acknowledge how the Fed currently operates to control risk in the financial system.
The Fed currently has two primary tools for controlling the financial system. They are:
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Wednesday, June 06, 2018
Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: F_F_Wiley
Have you ever lacked for information about America’s various debt burdens? Twenty-odd years ago, if you paid any attention to debt, you might have relied on original source data to stay current. But the times they are-a-changing, aren’t they? In today’s high-tech, data-rich world, anyone who follows financial news should know roughly where we stand with our borrowings. Whether you’re a mainstream media addict or a blog junkie, your daily dose includes more commentary than ever before on which types of borrowers are increasing their leverage and by how much.
For example, don’t bother to sit down and ready yourself before reading the following observations about debt ratios, they should come as no big surprise (but note that we’re comparing debt to the highest prior GDP reading, or peak GDP):
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Saturday, June 02, 2018
Buckle Up Deflationists… You’re Getting Taken to the Cleaners / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The current view trending in social media as well as most of the financial media is that Italy is about to trigger a systemic collapse of Europe.
Those proposing this theory are using charts of Italy’s bond yields and stock market that focus on the last few years when the country was being priced at a ridiculously low risk.
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Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Debilitating Inflation Is Like an Army of Termites Eating Away Your House / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report, and regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com.
David, thanks for joining us again, how are you?
David Smith: You bet, Mike. It's great to speak with you again.
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Monday, May 28, 2018
A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers / Economics / Recession
By: F_F_Wiley
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed that the recent flattening is similar to those that occurred at various stages of the last nine business-cycle expansions, but usually before the midpoints. In other words, history places today’s curve in an early- or mid-cycle position, not late-cycle as commonly believed. We concluded that the recent flattening isn’t all that interesting as far as the business cycle is concerned.
Monday, May 21, 2018
Frontier Growth, Catching Up, Falling Behind and Extremely Falling Behind / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: MoneyFacts
The economic growth model a country chooses to implement is very important for its economic development. This is the challenge primarily faced by countries with developing economies which place the process of increasing their level of economic development as one of their main goals in order to advance to the category of countries with developed economies.
There are different models of economic growth: frontier growth, catching up, and falling behind.Frontier growth which is characteristic to countries (for example, the United States) which create qualitatively new products and new production based on new technologies.
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Monday, May 21, 2018
5 Effects Of Currency Fluctuations On The Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Currency fluctuations are some of the most analyzed aspects of any economy. Slight changes in the value of a currency can send reverberations across the economy. In fact, some currency fluctuations levels can have drastic effects on the health of an economy. Markets like forex and other trading sectors are heavily reliant on how strong or weak a particular currency is. The strength of a currency can also determine how a particular country handles international trade. Indeed, five of the strongest currencies in the world are so influential in the world that many aspects of the global economy are almost tied to them. There are several effects of fluctuations of currencies. Below are some of the most important.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
Coming Inflationary Storm Is Entirely Due to Central Banks / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
We’ve received a number of emails asking us how inflation is on the rise while the Fed is technically “tightening.”
The answer is that while the Fed is technically tightening, other Central Banks, particularly the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) have been printing their currencies by the hundreds of billions.
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Monday, May 07, 2018
Global Synchronized Economic Slowdown / Economics / Global Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Not too long ago the overwhelming consensus from the perennial Wall Street Carnival Barkers was that investors were enjoying a global growth renaissance that would last for as far as the eye can see. Unfortunately, it didn’t take much time to de-bunk that fairy tale. After a lackluster start to 2018, the market's expectations for global growth for the remainder of this year is now waning with each tick higher in bond yields.
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