Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
The Fed Broke This Economic Cycle—and It’s a Game Changer for Investors / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Here’s a quote from my friend Peter Boockvar that has drawn an enormous amount of interest:“We no longer have business cycles, we have credit cycles.”
Let’s cut that small but meaty sound bite into pieces. What do we mean by “business cycle,” exactly? Well, it looks something like this.
A growing economy peaks, contracts to a trough (what we call “recession”), recovers to enter prosperity, and hits a higher peak. Then the process repeats.
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Asset Bubbles and the Economy Are Now One / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Michael_Pento
After this latest round of a deflationary recession/depression consummates, global central banks and governments will engage in an epoch battle to re-inflate asset prices such as never before contemplated. Indeed, they are laying the framework for that assault right now.
Global central banks took interest rates to the zero percent range a decade ago and, for the most part, they remain there today. These confetti pushers printed $15 trillion dollars in order to push rates into history’s basement. Such an enterprise in counterfeiting has never been attempted before outside of a banana republic.
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Monetary Metals on Keynes, Inflation and Evil Itself / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since NFTRH 543 was also known as the ‘What if… Inflation?’ report, I was attuned to the subject; and on cue here comes Keith Weiner with a knockout punch.
Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard, Report
He goes off on the evil (and I do mean evil) genius, John Maynard Keynes before moving on to his usual gold and silver supply/demand fundamental report.
Read full article... Read full article...He gave us the recipe for “overturning the existing basis of society.” All you have to do is “a continuing process of inflation,” which will “confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” This “brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires” to the “profiteers, who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat.” Finally, this process “engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Last Friday I talked about how we have been in a muted Economic Winter Season. We may have had the greatest stock market bubble ever, but our economic “recovery” has been the weakest on record, despite the strongest, globally-concerted stimulus ever.Here’s a chart comparing the real GDP for the 11 years from the 1929 top through the 1940 bottom to the 11 years from 2007 to 2018.
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! / Economics / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off!
This is the next analysis in a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices, this analysis takes a look at the impact of Demographics on the probable house prices trend over the next few years. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
2019 Economic Predictions / Economics / Global Economy
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 / Economics / Recession 2019
By: F_F_Wiley
In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending—namely, spending that doesn’t require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power (TSP) to describe spending that’s financed by external “injections” instead of prior savings.
As part of our argument, we shared the chart below, which compares TSP-derived spending on the left (financed by fresh bank credit) to spending that merely recycles savings, such as the prior domestic savings category on the right.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits / Economics / Recession
By: Dan_Amerman
If there is another recession in the next 1-2 years, then the Fed is highly likely to respond by swiftly moving Fed Funds rates back down to zero percent.
One likely result is that millions of investors will lose 83% or more of their future income over a period of years.
The money won't all actually be lost, however. Instead, much of it will be brought forward in time and passed through to a different group of investors as profits - in concentrated form.
In this analysis, we will focus on understanding how an unintentional - but necessary - byproduct of the Fed's dilemma and known plans when we enter the next recession, will be to strip wealth from some investors, and to bring that wealth forward in time to be "caught" by other investors.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime / Economics / Phillippines
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the Aquino era, the focus was on financial flows, which rested on a strong peso. In the Duterte era, it is on the huge investment drive, which can live with a weaker currency. The peso’s political economy is shifting.Recently, international media have released contradictory peso reports. But the phenomenon is not new. For instance, Bloomberg’s Ditas Lopez first attributed the peso’s decline to Duterte two months before the actual election (April 27, 2016). Yet, after the election, the peso rose for weeks beating forecasts so that by late August 2016 even Bloomberg had to admit that he currency had completed the “best performance in Asia this month.”
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
US Retail Sales Panic Data Could Be Just a Glitch / Economics / Retail Sector
By: John_Mauldin
Recession antennae popped up everywhere on February 14.
The Commerce Department reported retail sales fell 1.2% in December. It was the worst month-over-month decline since 2009:
Friday, March 08, 2019
Is Recession Near? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I trust Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He’s been a perpetual speaker at my SIC conference for at least 10 years.
Dave is screaming recession every chance he gets, but he is not a perma-bear by any means.
He’s been bullish at the right times in the past. Dave turned uber-bullish 9 or 10 years ago. It was way outside the consensus at the time, but he has never cared much about being part of the consensus.
So while I don’t entirely agree with him this time, I pay attention.
Tuesday, March 05, 2019
China - A Critical Global Growth Engine, Despite Deceleration / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite U.S. trade wars, China will stick to its growth target and fiscal easing in the short-term, deleveraging in the medium-term and rebalancing in the long-term. That’s the message of Premier Li’s report.Released on Monday at the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), Premier Li Keqian’s annual work report sets the general tone for the 2019 economic policies.
In 2019, China has set a lower, flexible economic growth target at the range of 6.0% to 6.5%, while raising its tolerance of fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP.
The point about the GDP growth target is not how much it will exceed 6%, but that it should not fall below that level. That’s vital to sustain the quest to double living standard by 2020.
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Monday, February 25, 2019
An Economic Postcard from Malaysia / Economics / Malaysia
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not so long ago, Malaysia was set to lose years of economic progress. Today, following the re-imposition of economic discipline, the country is almost back on track. A new era dawned in Malaysia in May 2018, when the opposition coalition led by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim secured a simple majority in a historical election. When Mahathir will return to retirement, opposition leader Anwar is expected to replace him in about two years.
In the 2018 election, their coalition - Pakatan Harapan (PH) - won 113 seats against the ruling coalition (United Malays National Organization, UMNO and its allies) that had not lost an election since 1957.
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Friday, February 15, 2019
Chinese Lunar New Year Sales in line with Expectations / Economics / Retail Sector
By: Dan_Steinbock
According to some international observers, the Lunar New Year sales indicate a plunge in Chinese consumption. Economic realities tell a different story.Chinese Lunar New Year can be seen as a barometer for Chinese private consumption, due to gift-giving and family reunions. Consequently, both holiday data and its international coverage are of great interest.
Here’s the bottom line: During the Lunar New Year holiday in early February, Chinese retail and catering businesses generated a record over 1 trillion yuan ($148 billion). Sales by retail businesses rose 8.5% from a year earlier.
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Thursday, February 14, 2019
Capitalism Isn’t Bad, It’s Just Broken / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
The Soviet Union’s collapse ended the socialism vs. capitalism argument.
Semi-free markets spread through Eastern Europe. Collectivist economies everywhere began turning free. Capitalism seemingly won.
Even communist China adopted a form of free market capitalism. Although, as they say, it has “Chinese characteristics.”
With all its faults and problems, capitalism generated the greatest accumulation of wealth in human history. It has freed millions of people from abject poverty.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Trump’s Quest to Undermine Multilateral Development Banks / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the postwar era, the multilateral development banks were created to facilitate global trade. Today, they are ‘America First’ targets.Recently, the White House has been pushing its America First stance in the World Trade Organization (WTO) by controversial appeals to a “national security exception.” In response to the Trump tariffs, several WTO members have brought dispute settlement cases against the U.S.
World Bank is next in the firing line. Reportedly, the White House will announce David Malpass as the nominee for President of the World Bank, after Jim Yong Kim's resignation well before the end of his five-year term in 2022.
In the 2016 election, Malpass served as Trump’s economic advisor. A year later he was appointed Undersecretary for International Affairs in the U.S. Department of the Treasury. But he is an odd choice to head the World Bank - a bit like selecting a coal CEO to head the struggle against climate change.
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Friday, February 08, 2019
US Business Confidence Is Starting to Crack / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Patrick_Watson
Actions speak louder than words.
That’s why surveys asking people what they think about the economy aren’t always useful. Their actions might not match their words.
Of course, attitudes are important because they guide our decisions, even though we don’t act on them consistently.
Not everyone’s decisions have equal impact, though. Business owners and CEOs have more influence because they make bigger decisions: whether to create new jobs, raise wages, buy new equipment, and so on.
Tuesday, February 05, 2019
Debt Can’t Save China Anymore / Economics / China Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
The 2008 financial crisis hit China hard, as it did everyone else.
Not every country responded like China did, though. Most couldn’t do what China did because they lacked either financial resources or political ability.
China had both. And so it launched a stimulus program of mind-boggling proportions.
Monday, February 04, 2019
Darker Clouds over Europe / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not only is Europe’s expansionary cycle fading, but the region is about to face challenges that it has to tackle amid growing political fragmentation.Italy slipped into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to new data. France continues to be haunted by Yellow vests protests. Germany has entered an era of uncertainty. And Brexit overshadows the UK future.
In the absence of Trump’s tariffs, Europe could have benefited from a nascent recovery of world trade, investment and finance. But now even these hopes are diminishing.
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
Hyperinflation -- A Kaleidoscope Of Uses And Abuses / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The word “hyperinflation” is sprinkled throughout the press each day. We read that Iran is hyperinflating. The same is written about Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as well as a potpourri of other countries that are experiencing inflation flare ups. While Iran came close to a hyperinflation in the fall of 2012, it has never experienced an episode of hyperinflation. And, while Zimbabwe experienced hyperinflation episodes in 2007-2008 and 2017, it is not hyperinflating now. At present, Venezuela is the only country experiencing a hyperinflation. It’s clear that journalists and those they interview tend to play fast and loose with the word “hyperinflation.”
To clean up the hyperinflation landscape, we must heed the words of the great Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founders of the Austrian School of Economics, who, in 1891, wrote “…We too must bring into our science a strict order and discipline, which we are still far from having…by a disorderly and ambiguous terminology we are led into the most palpable mistakes and misunderstandings – all these failings are of so frequent occurrence in our science that they almost seem to be characteristic of its style.”
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