Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Fed Conflates Inflation with Growth / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
It is a sad situation when everything the man in charge of our central bank professes to understand about inflation is wrong. Mr. Bernanke does not know what causes inflation, how to accurately measure inflation or the real damage inflation does to an economy. He, like most central bankers around the globe, persists in conflating inflation with growth. The sad truth is that our Federal Reserve believes growth can be engendered from creating more inflation.
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Thursday, February 23, 2012
Kondratieff Waves and the Greater Depression of 2013 - 2020 / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Christopher_Quigley
There are very few heroes in economics but for me one of the patron saints of that profession
should be Nikolai Kondratiev who was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938. He
died for what he believed was the truth. His execution was ordered because his academic work
propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of
1929. This truth Stalin did not want to hear, thus Nikolai was exterminated and his work
suppressed for over two decades. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
U.S. Inflation Expectations Forecast No More QE / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Tony_Pallotta
If you study the difference between real or inflation adjusted treasury yields as measured by TIPS and nominal or non inflation adjusted yields you come up with inflation expectations. The Fed has specifically referenced this analysis leading up to QE2. In fact the deflationary trend as measured by TIPS in the summer of 2010 was the basis for expanding their balance sheet.
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Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Inflation Held in Check by Fear / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Browne
History has shown us time and again that out of control money supply expansion creates inflation. In light of the trillions of synthetic dollars that have been injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve over the past five years, most observers (this one included) had expected prices to spiral upward. But in making these determinations, many of us forgot to factor in the supply side of the supply/demand equation. Inflation remains low now because of game changing events that have reduced the demand for money.
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Saturday, February 18, 2012
Tax Receipts And Economic Expansion They Don't Add Up / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
Taking economic data at face value "trusting" the seasonal adjustment is comparable to looking at an income statement and ignoring cash flow. In other words if the income statement says a company generated a profit well the cash flow will be there.
In the case of US economic data the closest thing we have is monthly tax receipts. I will be digging more into this data in the coming weeks and months to get a better sense just how well the economy is doing. For now I wanted to share an analysis based purely on tax receipts.
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012
I only have eyes for you. And Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Jan_Skoyles
You may have seen them already but some of them were so, so bad (and some pretty good) that we just had to say something about them.
Yep, we’re talking about the Fed Valentine’s.
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012
January U.S. Retail Sales Decelerating Trend Remains in Place / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales increased 0.4% in January after a steady reading in December. The December estimate was revised down slightly from the earlier reading of 0.1%. In January, auto purchases in the retail sales report show a 1.1% decline, while unit auto sales increased to an annual rate of 14.2 million units in January vs. 13.6 million units in December. Unit auto sales matter in the computation of consumer spending. Gasoline sales rose 1.4% in January, a price related gain.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2012
U.S. Trade Deficit Data Belies Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Wall Street is extolling the virtues of our rising U.S. trade deficit as a sure sign the economy is well on the road to a full and viable recovery. It was reported last week that our level of trade imbalance jumped to a six-month high in December to $48.8 billion (up 3.7%), from $47.1 billion in the prior month. For all of 2011, the shortfall grew 12% to $558 billion, the most since 2008.
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Monday, February 13, 2012
Keynesians Jump the Gun on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
Advocates of government stimulus are running victory laps on recent developments that appear to vindicate their strategy. In particular, Paul Krugman compares the sluggish growth in Europe to the somewhat-less-sluggish growth in the US to prove that stimulus was more effective than austerity. Other economists are using government inflation measures to defend Fed Chairman Bernanke's easy-money policy. The only problem is, they're calling the race before the finish line is even in sight.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 12, 2012
US Trade Deficit Trouble On The Horizon / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
I'm intrigued how studying one economic data point can give you valuable insight into others. One such example is that of the recent US trade deficit. The December trade deficit increased to $48.8 billion from $47 billion in November. Although this report will have a slight negative impact on Q4 GDP there is something possibly more telling about the trajectory of the US economy.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
China, Economy, Inflation, Investing and on Buying U.S. Debt / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Bloomberg TV's Trish Regan spoke to Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, ahead of soon-to-be Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S. next week.
Roach said that he hoped U.S. political leaders would turn the visit "into an opportunity and not into a politically inspired, perceived threat." He also said that he foresees a "soft landing" of China's economy and that market access should be the main political issue with China, not currency.
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Saturday, February 11, 2012
Widening U.S. Trade Gap Reflects Relative Economic Strength / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $48.8 billion in December, putting the 2011 trade gap at $558 billion, the largest since 2008. Exports of goods and services advanced 0.7% in December, while imports of goods and services grew 1.3%. The advance estimate of fourth quarter real GDP contains assumptions about the trade deficit in December; the actual trade data for December suggest an upward revision of the 2.8% increase in real GDP, everything else the same.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Lagging Economic Indicators and Nagging Debt Fundamentals / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
After the first weekend of the Holiday shopping season, there were jubilant members of the mainstream press virtually jumping out of their skins at the news that holiday spending was looking strong. The initial counts showed an uptick in spending and that was all the MSM needed. Interestingly at the same time, the ‘bad cops’, namely the Fed and other central banks, were quietly talking about more easing, the rotten labor market, and the debt crisis in Europe, still bubbling beneath the surface. So what gives here? Is the economy back off to the races or are we merely continuing to kick the can down the road in spite of the obviously sour fundamentals?
Friday, February 10, 2012
Of U.S. Jobs, Debts and Budgets / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Consumer confidence spiked last December. Gas prices were lower for the third straight month, a mild early winter meant that many consumers paid less to heat their houses, the auto sector posted another strong month, consumers spent more on recreation and demand for student loans increased.
Consumers seemed inclined to spend and get deeper into debt.
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Friday, February 10, 2012
U.S. Economy Better Days Ahead? / Economics / US Economy
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE – Over the past month, US economic data has surpassed analysts’ expectations and this positive surprise has triggered a rally on Wall Street.
You may recall that only a few months ago, the investment community was worried about Europe and many were questioning the survival of the single currency. During that period, investors were dumping all sorts of risky assets and capital was flowing towards the world’s reserve currency and the most liquid government bond market. Back then, European leaders were desperately trying to find a solution to the debt crisis and policymakers were engaged in what seemed to be never ending talks!
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Different Measures of U.S. Unemployment, but Consistent Story is Visible / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The civilian unemployment rate declined to 8.3% in January from 8.5% in the prior month and is noticeably lower than the year ago reading of 9.1% (see Chart 1). The jobless rate in the Great Recession peaked at 10.0% in October 2009. The elevated unemployment after ten quarters of economic growth remains one of the top concerns of the Fed. Frequently, measures of unemployment different from the headline number are cited to drive home the message that the underlying fundamentals of the labor market are softer than what is inferred from the official rate. The aim of today’s comment is to sort out the different measures of unemployment and draw a meaningful conclusion of the status of the labor market.
Thursday, February 09, 2012
China's Economic Rebalancing Should Be Good for Gold Demand / Economics / China Economy
By: Ben_Traynor
The next stage of China's development could give gold buyers a boost...
THERE IS an old saying: "Nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of a market."
Having said that, anyone reading about the stampede for gold during last month's Chinese New Year celebrations might have heard a faint ringing in their ears.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Illusion Of Economic Recovery – Feelings & Facts / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved." - Ludwig von Mises
Monday, February 06, 2012
US Unemployment Hits 22.5% in Alternate Estimate / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Jesse
Perhaps this chart will help explain the divergence that Charles Biderman of Trimtabs sees between the official unemployment numbers and the income tax data he has been tracking.
The difference amongst the three measures revolves around the treatment of workers who desire a real full time job, but have to either settle for a part time position and other forms of under-employment that may technically qualify as a 'job' but not as a 'living,' or who have simply been removed from the government's official attention span.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Look at What 'Worked' in the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Jesse
Here is a fairly simple picture of some of the major metrics during the Great Depression. Too simple yes, but it tracks most of the major indicators.
Hoover followed a policy of 'deleveraging,' that is, allowing for the economy to liquidate its prior excesses without changing much else. The Fed did respond to this crisis by expanding the monetary base fairly significantly as you can see.
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