Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Why the Economy Will Recover Differently This Time / Economics / US Economy
By: Hans_Wagner
Eventually the economy will stop declining and start to recover. The manner in which it recovers will provide investors substantial profits if they have a well-founded theme to base their investing strategy. This recession is the result of substantive changes in the economy that will be with us for years to come. Once the recover begins, we should have a good idea how each sector will deal with a stumble along economy. Since the stock market anticipates a recovery by rallying earlier, it is important for investors to be prepared for the changes that are coming.
Friday, May 15, 2009
How the New China ‘Yuan Carry Trade’ Could Accelerate the U.S. Recovery / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: [Editor's Note: Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is the editor of the new Geiger Index trading service. As the whipsaw trading patterns investors have endured this year have shown, the ongoing global financial crisis has changed the investment game forever.
Friday, May 15, 2009
U.S. Borrow and Spend DownWard Budgetary Spiral / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: Most Americans dread April 15. That’s when we all have to pay the fiddler — or more specifically, Uncle Sam. If you don’t get your tax check in on time, you may get a knock on your door someday from the IRS.
Friday, May 15, 2009
The New Economic Threat From Credit Default Swaps / Economics / Derivatives
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: While the entire U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse and corporate America was being systemically undermined, regulators purposely looked the other way.
Why would they do this?
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Friday, May 15, 2009
Wholesale Prices Deflation, Largest 12-Month Decline Since 1950 / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are investigating the Producer Price Indexes For April 2009.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Imaginary Green Shoots of Economic Recovery Based on Manipulated Statistics / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ have been trampled by people walking to their Unemployment Insurance Offices to collect jobless claims in order to pay their bills. The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ have been trampled been people walking (or running) away from their homes as they are being foreclosed. The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ will continue to suffer from most water and nutrients heading to the Elite Gardens, diverted from those on Main Street. The so-called ‘Green Shoots’ have been killed off by a stubborn frost from the US Economy. A prevailing sentiment and motivation has sadly and perversely entered into the public and financial sectors, with clear deceptive intention.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump; Continuing Claims Hit 6.5 Million / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The peak in initial claims might be in but the peak in unemployment is nowhere close. Continuing claims hit 6.56 million, setting a record for the 15th straight week.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
What's Dr. Copper think about the Economy? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Tim_Iacono
Copper prices have now fallen for five days straight, the longest losing streak since the tumultuous period in mid-December when it appeared the whole world was about to come to an end and surging demand for Treasuries pushed the ten-year yield to what can only be described as the "freakishly low" level of 2.0 percent.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
GM and U.S. Going Broke Together / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: LewRockwell
Bill Bonner writes: As GM goes…so goes America…
Uh oh…
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Thursday, May 14, 2009
Can China Accelerate the U.S. Economic Recovery? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Institutional investors have talked a lot about the so-called “yen carry trade” over the past couple of years. But that’s really just been a warm-up act for a much bigger story.
I’m talking about the “yuan carry trade.”
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Bank of England Inflation Report May 09, Governor Mervyn King Statement / Economics / UK Economy
By: BoE
Mervyn King writes: Over the past year the world economic and financial system has received emergency treatment. At home Bank Rate has fallen almost to zero, there has been a fiscal stimulus and hundreds of billions of pounds have been directed to supporting and resolving the banking system. Now the economy requires a period of healing. That will take time.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Retail Sales "Green Shoots" of Economic Recovery Wither On The Vine / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Whatever momentum consumers had (real or imaginary) is already in question as Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall for Second Month.Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in April for a second month, indicating that rising unemployment is prompting consumers to conserve cash.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Fed Actions Will Delay Real Economic Recovery From Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
Claus Vogt writes: More than six years ago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke — then still Fed Governor — gave a laudation for Milton Friedman, one of America’s leading economists.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report, UK GDP Revised Lower / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England in its quarterly inflation report to be published later today is expected to revise its UK GDP forecast lower following the first quarter crash of -1.9%. The Banks forecast of barely 3 months ago is for UK GDP to fall by -3.4% for 2009, this is expected to be revised to -4.1% which would bring the Bank of England inline with the IMF's forecast for GDP contraction which itself is a revision of just a few weeks ago from -3%, against my own forecast for UK GDP contraction for 2009 of -4.75% (see below). The BoE will also revise growth lower for next year which will probably be in the region of +1.5%.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Labor Department Manipulation Minimized April Unemployment Data / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Employers cut 539,000 jobs in April, the lowest total in six months, but the Labor Department said the unemployment rate still soared to 8.9%, from 8.5% in March. While some analysts viewed the latest report as a sign of a nascent economic recovery, the unemployment numbers are almost certain to head higher before the recession is declared over.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Obama Following UK Disastrous Economic Inflationary Policies of Printing Money / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Gerard_Jackson
If there is one institution that is in desperate need of a stress test it's the US government. On 7 May the government auctioned $14 billion of 30-year bonds. The yield was 4.28 per cent, much higher than predicted by analysts. When the result became known Treasuries immediately dropped. For those readers who are unaware of the link between bond prices and yields, when the latter rises bond prices fall. This event followed closely behind the UK's failed bond issue. It sure as hell seems that the markets are worried by these governments' financial incompetence. And so they should be.
Monday, May 11, 2009
NO Economic Recovery, Multiple Raging Economic Storms / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Any economist fixated on so-called “signs of a recovery” needs to have his head examined.
As I’ll prove to you in a moment, the hard-nosed reality is that five major economic cyclones are in progress at this very moment.
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Monday, May 11, 2009
Fed Economic Roller Coaster, What's Ahead? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: LewRockwell
Gerald Celente writes: Green Shoots or Greatest Depression? - The financial fields replete with sprouting "green shoots" should be viewed with suspicion, if not alarm. They are not a mirage, but they are ephemeral.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Chinese Economic Recovery a Mirage as Deflation Accelerates / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Consumer prices are falling year over year in China. Bear in mind that falling prices do not constitute deflation which is a monetary phenomenon (a reduction in money supply and credit) not a price phenomenon. In this case we see both.
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Sunday, May 10, 2009
Did Bernanke Pull the U.S. Economy Back From the Brink of Depression? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
Fed chief Ben Bernanke's understanding of financial crises may have kept the country from sliding into another Great Depression. That doesn't mean that he's fixed the credit system, removed the non-performing loans from the banks, or stopped housing prices from crashing. It simply means that pumping liquidity into the system--via huge increases in the money supply, zero-percent interest rates, and multi-trillion dollar lending facilities--has either slowed or reversed the rate of decline in many sectors of the economy.