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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Continued Sluggish U.S. Economic Growth Expected Through 2012 / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith this commentary, we unveil our first formal forecast of U.S. economic activity and interest rates for 2012. The forecast for real GDP growth is only marginally better in 2012 vs. the forecast for 2011 - on a Q4/Q4 basis, 2.45% in 2012 vs. 2.20% in 2011. We do expect some forward momentum to build in the second half of 2012 with respect to real GDP growth and for this momentum to intensify in 2013. The reason for this building momentum is an expectation of a resumption of Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) early in 2012 and/or a pick-up in bank credit creation. Because our forecast is for below-potential real economic growth, our view is that the unemployment rate will creep up from its Q2:2011 average of 9.1%, peaking at 9.5% in Q3:2012. It will not be until 2013, that any sustained meaningful decline in the unemployment rate sets in.

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Economics

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Society Lacks Purchasing Power, Robots Don’t Buy Cars / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Christopher_Quigley

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOur world lurches from financial crisis to financial crisis yet very few academics, reporters or commentators point out the fatal flaw in current orthodox economic theory which is the central force behind these crises. The flaw relates to the general LACK OF PURCHASING POWER in contemporary society. This weakness in classical economic theory is not new and many scholars have explained the problem however, increasingly, the issue is being conditioned out of people’s consciousness. The collapse of the international banking system, as a result of the Sub-Prime; “Originate to Distribute” catastrophe, has brought this Achilles heel of Keynesian economics into sharp focus.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

U.S. Economic Policy Failures, Federal Debt Bomb End Game / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong-time readers are familiar with the wisdom of Lacy Hunt. He is a regular feature of Outside the Box. He writes a quarterly piece for Hoisington Asset Management in Austin, and this is one of his better ones. Read it twice.

"While the massive budget deficits and the buildup of federal debt, if not addressed, may someday result in a substantial increase in interest rates, that day is not at hand. The U.S. economy is too fragile to sustain higher interest rates except for interim, transitory periods that have been recurring in recent years. As it stands, deflation is our largest concern ..."

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Economics

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Does It Make Economic Sense to Strive for a Balanced Federal Budget? / Economics / Government Spending

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

When business make capital expenditures in order to enhance future profitability, do they typically fund all of these capital expenditures out of current income? No.

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Economics

Monday, July 18, 2011

The Critical Flaw in Keynes's Economic System / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs part of my Mises Academy class Keynes, Krugman, and the Crisis, I have reread large portions of The General Theory. In his masterpiece, Keynes erects an impressive framework on one crucial assumption: left to its own devices, the free market can get stuck in an equilibrium with very high unemployment.

Although Keynes's whole edifice and critique of the "classical economists" rests on this belief, he devotes surprisingly little time to supporting it. In the present article I'll point out the weakness in his view. If it turns out that the free market does naturally move toward full employment in the labor market, then the entire Keynesian "general theory" falls apart.

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Economics

Monday, July 18, 2011

Why Banks Aren’t Lending: The Silent Liquidity Squeeze / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy aren’t banks lending to local businesses? The Fed’s decision to pay interest on $1.6 trillion in “excess” reserves is a chief suspect.

Where did all the jobs go? Small and medium-sized businesses are the major source of new job creation, and they are not hiring. Startup businesses, which contribute a fifth of the nation’s new jobs, often can’t even get off the ground. Why?

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Economics

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Who Benefits from the Greek Bailout? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Andrew_G_Marshall

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleContinuing From Part 1 (The Great Global Debt Depression: It's All Greek To Me) - Greece has a total debt of roughly 330 billion euros (or U.S. $473 billion).[60] In the lead-up to the Greek bailout orchestrated by the IMF and European Union in 2010, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released information regarding who exactly was in need of a bailout. With the bailout largely organized by France and Germany (as the dominant EU powers), who would be providing the majority of funds for the bailout itself (subsequently charged to their taxpayers), the BIS revealed that German and French banks carry a combined exposure of $119 billion to Greek borrowers specifically, and more than $900 billion to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland combined.

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Economics

Sunday, July 17, 2011

The Great Global Debt Depression: It's All Greek To Me / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Andrew_G_Marshall

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn late June of 2011, the Greek government passed another round of austerity measures, ostensibly aimed at getting Greece “back on track” to economic progress, but in reality, implementing a systematic program of ‘social genocide’ in the name of servicing an endless and illegitimate debt to foreign banks. Right on cue, protests and riots broke out in Athens against the draconian measures, and the state moved in to do what states do best: oppress the people with riot police, tear gas and bashing batons, leaving roughly 300 people injured.

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Economics

Sunday, July 17, 2011

U.S. Economy Inflation R.I.P. Deflation / Economics / Inflation

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite a big 4.4% drop off from energy prices in June following a 1.0% fall in May, the latest BLS data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was still up 3.6% year-over-year.

The core CPI (less food and energy), an inflation gauge watched closely by the Federal Reserve, also increased 1.6% year-over-year, and has been steadily rising and most of the increase has come within the past six months. (See Charts Below)

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Economics

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Back to Economic Basics GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we are going to revisit some themes concerning the problems of the debt and the deficit. I am getting a number of questions, so while long-time readers may have read most of this in one letter or another, it is clearly time for a review, especially given the deficit/debt-ceiling debate. I will probably offend some cherished beliefs of most readers, but that is the nature of the times we live in. It is the time of the Endgame, where things are not as black and white as they have been in the past.

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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Factory Production Decelerating Even After Excluding Autos / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Industrial production moved up 0.1% in June, following two consecutive monthly declines. Supply chain problems from the Japanese natural disaster led to a decline in auto production in each of the three months of the second quarter. Production at the nation's utilities rose 0.9% in June following a 2.0% drop in May.

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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2011

U.S. CPI Inflation - Lower Energy Prices Account for Decline / Economics / Inflation

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% in June vs. a 0.2% increase in the prior month. The 6.8% drop of the gasoline price index accounted for a large part of the decline in the headline number. The food price index moved up 0.2% in June, the smallest increase for the year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in June, matching the gain posted in May.

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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Social Security's Impact on the Federal Budget Deficit / Economics / Government Spending

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

For a number of years, net contributions to Social Security exceeded benefit payments. These surpluses were transferred to the Treasury's general fund in exchange for an IOU from the Treasury to be called at a time when the net contributions to Social Security became less than the benefit payments. That time arrived in 2009 when net contributions were $8.2 billion less than benefit payments.

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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Growth in Net Federal Outlays / Economics / Government Spending

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays in June 2011 was up 3.28% from the 12-month cumulative total in June 2010. From December 1955 through June 2011, the median change in the 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays from year-ago month has been 6.64%.

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Economics

Friday, July 15, 2011

U.S. Q2 Retail Sales Suggest Mild Gain in Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales rose only 0.1% during June after a revised 0.1% drop in May.  The tally of retail sales for the second quarter shows a significant deceleration in the second quarter (+4.4%) after a 10.5% annualized gain in the first quarter, which partly reflects the vast swings of gasoline prices.  Auto sales advanced 0.8% in June according to today's retail sales report, which is different from the unit sales data for June (11.5 million units vs. 11.8 million units in May). 

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