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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

QE2 and The Great Economic Misdiagnosis, Insolvency Not Illiquidity / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe backdrop has turned dire on several front simultaneously. The great millstone around the USEconomy's neck continues to drag it down. CoreLogic reported 2.1 million units have created a swamp in Shadow inventory of the housing market. That equates to 23 months inventory, whereas normal is 7 months. They tallied the growing tumor of bank owned properties as a result of home foreclosures, also called the REOs (real estate owned). Look for no housing market recovery for at least another two years. Starting in summer 2007, the Jackass forecast each year has been for another two years of housing market declines, all correct. Ireland might be squarely in the news, but the big enchalada is Spain. The Irish banks have presented a grand headache for the European banks, with a $150 billion exposure. Ironically, Ireland has done more to reduce its budget spending effectively than any EU member nation, yet is left to twist in the soft rain. They cut their government budget by 20%.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Raising Taxes Is Not Reducing Government Spending / Economics / Economic Theory

By: George_Reisman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSunday's New York Times carries an article titled "The Blur Between Spending and Taxes." The author is Harvard Professor N. Gregory Mankiw.[1] The essential theme of the article is that the government is spending when it decides to forgo tax revenue that it otherwise could have collected. Indeed, tax revenues forgone in the enactment of tax deductions, such as for interest payments on home mortgages or charitable contributions, and tax credits, such as for first-time homebuyers or adoptions, are now commonly described as "Tax Expenditures." The thought is that the government is spending money in deciding not to take it in taxes and to allow the taxpayers to keep it.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Mounting Unemployment in America: Poverty and "Social Explosion" / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe social net has become a bit more frayed. Soon extended unemployment benefits will cease and 2 million Americans will have to dip into their savings, if they have any. This is an outgrowth of the effects of free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing. We have lost 8.5 million jobs over the last ten years to this destructive process. We have seen more than 42,000 manufacturing plants leave the country as well.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

New Estimate Indicates Real U.S. GDP Grew Faster in Q3 2010 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter, which is higher than the advance estimate of a 2.0% increase.  Upward revisions of consumer spending, equipment and software spending, exports, government spending, and smaller decline in residential investment expenditures more than offset the decline in structural investment expenditures, previously reported to have added to GDP, to result in a higher rate of growth. 

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Economics

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Fed’s Bearish Outlook Justifies QE2 / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe minutes of the November 2-3 FOMC meeting include forecasts about real GDP, inflation, and employment from members of the FOMC. The main conclusion from the new forecast is that the Fed is less sanguine about the pace of economic activity in the final three months of 2010 and 2011 compared with the previous forecast (see table below).  The downward revision of growth and an upward revision of employment entirely justifies the announcement of the second round of quantitative easing of $600 billion. 

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Economics

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Bernanke vs. Keynes / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestment drives the economy. It creates jobs, builds factories, develops technology, and stimulates growth. When investment falls, spending slows, unemployment rises, and the economy languishes in persistent stagnation.

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

After Reflation Comes Hyper-Deflation, a Different Kind of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere’s a wealth of wisdom to be found in ancient Chinese proverbs. Not uncommonly one can find answers to the most complex problems today by reading the simple yet elegant epigrams found in any collection of ancient sayings.

One of the themes that runs like a thread in any book of Chinese proverbs is the honor the Chinese confer to the elderly. One such proverb advises anyone who is considering a new venture to “consult at least there older people before proceeding, then you will succeed.” Another one puts it much more succinctly: “The elderly: a national treasure.”

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

Mike Shedlock's Vacuous Deflation Market Calls Busted / Economics / Deflation

By: Robert_Murphy

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the last two years, I have gotten perhaps dozens of requests to "deal with" the deflationist approach of Mike "Mish" Shedlock. On his popular financial blog, Mish has been repeatedly patting himself on the back for correctly calling all the major trends in contrast to those economists (like Gary North and I) who naively think Bernanke has the power to raise prices if he so chooses.

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

U.S. Unemployment to Remain High Through 2011 and Beyond / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Stocks are up nearly 70% from their bear market lows. Corporate profits are rising. And the economy is expanding. Yet the unemployment rate continues to hover around 10%.

Neither President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus program, nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has generated enough good news to convince companies to hire meaningful numbers of new workers.

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Economics

Monday, November 22, 2010

Ireland Bailout Consequences for Britain, Portugal Next? Stock Market Correction Over? / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIreland's Government drops the mantra of no bailout by finally coming clean to the Irish public that a multi-billion Euro bailout has been agreed ahead of markets opening on Monday. Many Irish citizens will be angry that they have been repeatedly lied to as a series of senior government politician's have stepped forward these past few weeks to make announcements that Ireland was not seeking a bailout when the facts where the complete opposite as an accelerating bank run was under way on Irish banks, with depositors having already pulled out an estimated Euro 25 billion.

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Economics

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Are We Living in the Federal Reserve's QE2 Twilight Zone? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Monday, an old friend sent me a link to a now virally famous cartoon clip via YouTube. The clip is a depiction of the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing in a simplified, humorous manner and has been viewed over 1.6 million times, not to mention it had a front and center showing on CNBC.

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Economics

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Fed's Hidden Agenda of Driving U.S. Into a Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Washingtons_Blog

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBen Bernanke has said that the Fed is trying to promote inflation, increase lending, reduce unemployment, and stimulate the economy. However, the Fed has arguably - to some extent - been working against all of these goals.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Quantitative Easing QE2 and the Looming Threat of a Crippling Debt Service / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe deficit hawks are circling, hovering over QE2, calling it just another inflationary bank bailout.  But unlike QE1, QE2 is not about saving the banks.  It’s about funding the federal deficit without increasing the interest tab, something that may be necessary in this gridlocked political climate just to keep the government functioning.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Global Financial System Crisis, Collapse in Consumer Spending, Unemployment, Rising Prices / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe hear stories about oil and about how it will probably move higher, perhaps to $150.00 a barrel and perhaps higher. This is the first time in more than three years that it has moved to lofty levels. The net speculative long position is more than 200,000 contracts, or about 35% higher than in 2007. Some economies are doing well, particularly in Asia and in Latin America, but not enough to create such higher prices. $60.00 a barrel would more nearly meet demand.

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Economics

Saturday, November 20, 2010

The Sputtering U.S. Economy, Deflation Exactly Where is it? / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Sputtering Economy
Old and Outmoded
We Have Deflation Exactly Where?
O Deflation, Where is Thy Sting?

The CPI was out this week, and it showed a continued drop in inflation. There were those who immediately pointed out that this vindicated the Fed's move to QE2. We have to get ahead of this deflation thing, don't we? Well, maybe, depending on how you measure inflation/deflation. This week we look deep into the BLS website on inflation to see just exactly what it is we are measuring, and then take a walk down Nostalgia Lane. But first we look at what I think we can call The Sputtering Economy, because that will tie into our inflation discussion.

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