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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Bernanke vs. Kondratieff: Round QE2 vs Global Long Wave Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn Round QE1 2007-2009 of the unfolding global financial crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke fought a remarkable round. It was the global financial and economic heavyweight fight of his life. Bernanke’s effort temporarily prevented a global deflationary debt and economic demand collapse in the unfolding Kondratieff winter season. It remains to be seen whether QE1 and the trillions it will cost U.S. taxpayers will change the ultimate outcome. The fight is still very much on, with the opponents briefly taking a breather in their respective corners. The bell is now ringing. Round QE2 has begun.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Emerging Market Infrastructure Set to Drive Demand for Commodities / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: John_Derrick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEvery week roughly 1 million people are born in or migrate to cities in emerging markets all over the world. By 2030, the global urban population is expected to grow by 1.6 billion people and account for 60 percent of all people on Earth, according to the United Nations.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

The Deep Cause Of The Great Financial Crisis: The Peace Diktat Of Versailles / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAccording to a recent news item, not widely circulated, after more than 90 years of slavery, on October 3, 2010, Germany made the final payment for its World War I debt. This event is highly symbolic. It gives me great pleasure to be one of the first to congratulate you, literally hours after the German people were finally freed from debt slavery.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Chinese Factory Workers Fast and Efficient Beyond Beijings Yuan Policy / Economics / China Economy

By: Dian_L_Chu

This video, courtesy of China Hush, illustrates one reason why factory jobs worldwide have shifted to China. Chinese workers have a lot more to contend with than just Beijing's yuan policy.  Washington and many  experts' belief that a totally floating yuan would bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. woudl most likely prove to be an over-simplistic view bound to fail.

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Economics

Monday, October 04, 2010

Consumer Price Index (CPI), A Standard of Living Problem / Economics / Inflation

By: Chris_Riley

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe CPI is a cost of living indicator, calculated with a basket of goods that varies over time. As it is attempting to measure price changes in a typical consumption basket, it does not compare price changes across a like-for-like basket of goods over time. This has caused large under measurement of the true rate of price inflation when living standards have been falling and over measurement of price inflation when living standards have been rising. This is a major problem, as we need to measure price changes whilst holding the standard of living constant i.e. across a fixed basket of goods. But that would invalidate the CPI as a measure of change in the cost of living.

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Economics

Monday, October 04, 2010

Blind to the Flaws of Keynesian Economic Theory / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecently the pundits and bloggers have been arguing about the empirical case for (and against) the Obama Administration's $800 billion stimulus package. I have already focused on Paul Krugman's humorous role in this debate, and today we'll get some chuckles courtesy of Princeton economist Alan Blinder.

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Economics

Monday, October 04, 2010

US Economy Demand Deficiency is Not the Problem and Keynesianism is Not the Solution / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn trying to explain the state of the American economy the commentariat is still blaming the lack of consumer demand. But as the classical economists always pointed out when presented with this fallacy, consumption is never a problem but production is.

(Although I have made use of classical economists numerous times, drawing attention their correct views on production and consumption, I should make it clear that classical economists were far from being in agreement on every important point of theory, especially where value, prices and costs entered the discussion.)

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Economics

Saturday, October 02, 2010

America Trending Towards and Inflationary Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is no question that those who control our government from behind the scenes are bound and determined to take over the $6 trillion in private pension plans. Whether they’ll be successful remains to be seen. The Department of Labor wants to force all IRA’s and 401k’s into the arms of a corporate fascist government, that knows better what is good for you, than you do. You would exchange your hard earned investments for a guaranteed, government annuity that is not worth the paper it is written on.

We have been writing about this for more than a year, but as usual few are listening. People say the government won’t and can’t do that. Government can do anything it wants.

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Economics

Saturday, October 02, 2010

The Morality of Chinese Econimic Growth, Crude Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5 / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5
David Rosenberg and Capacity Utilization
Gary Shilling: Commercial Real Estate and Employment
The Morality of Chinese Growth

This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don’t attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it’s Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a “best of” letter. The best ideas I’ve heard and the best charts I’ve seen at this conference. Then we close with two short but very thoughtful essays from Charles Gave and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal on “The Morality of Chinese Growth.” Lots of charts and something to make you think. Should be a good letter.

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Economics

Saturday, October 02, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Survey Points to Slowing U.S. Economy in Q3 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe composite ISM manufacturing index edged down to 54.4 in September from 56.3 in the prior month. Indexes tracking production (56.5 vs. 59.9 in August), new orders (51.1 vs. 53.1 in August), employment (56.5 vs. 60.4 in August), and vendor deliveries (53.3 vs. 56.6 in August) declined, while the inventories index rose to 55.6 from 51.4 in August. Readings above 50.0 denote an expansion in activity. Although the levels of each of the sub-components of the composite index continue to hold above 50, the declines registered in September, excluding the gain in the inventories index, imply that factory activity advanced at a slower pace in September compared with August.

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Economics

Saturday, October 02, 2010

They Say the U.S. Recession Ended Over a Year Ago / Economics / US Economy

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) told us the recession ended June 2009, when economic activity stopped going down and turned up.

The problem is most people are still worried about their jobs, if they have one and the lackluster performance of the recovery so far. With unemployment fluctuating between 9.4 and 10.1%, and the underemployment rate near 17%, it is no wonder the news from the NBER received such skepticism. Even the Federal Reserve said consumer demand, bank lending and housing remain weak, especially for this stage of the recovery.

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Economics

Friday, October 01, 2010

Perpetual Deflation Causes Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Shelby_H_Moore

It does not amaze me that most people have not studied enough to have a very good understanding of the current macro economic environment.

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Economics

Friday, October 01, 2010

Inflationism and Government Intervention Roots of the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLionel Robbins writes: I want to start by saying something about the phrase "poverty in plenty" of which we hear so much. I cannot help thinking that it may be misleading to some readers. The object of this series is to explain why the economic machine sometimes produces so much less than it could produce, in spite of the fact that so many people consume so much less than they could consume.

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Economics

Friday, October 01, 2010

U.S. Real GDP Revised Higher, Stronger Consumer Spending, Jobless Claims Trending Down / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter vs. the preliminary estimate of 1.6%. The 2.2% growth in consumer spending represents an upward revision from the earlier estimate of a 2.0% gain. The strength came from an upward revision of consumer outlays on services. A larger inventory accumulation was also reported for the second quarter compared with the prior estimate ($68.8 billion vs. $63.2 billion in preliminary report). A decline in non-residential structures and smaller growth of government spending provided most of the offset. Going forward, the U.S. economy is projected to grow at a tepid pace in the second half of 2010 of roughly 1-3/4%.

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Economics

Thursday, September 30, 2010

U.S. Consumers Refusing to Debt Deleverage Will Be Dragged Kicking and Screaming into the Age of Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article10% Savings Rate + Consumer Spending At 65% Of Gdp = Retail Disaster

Now that the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNBC and every other mainstream media outlet have figured out what some financial blogs had figured out months ago The Great Debt Deleveraging Lie , everyone knows that the American consumers have not yet begun to deleverage. Consumer credit outstanding peaked at $2.58 trillion in July 2008. It has plummeted all the way to $2.42 trillion today, a 6% reduction over two years. The full $160 billion reduction can be attributed to write-offs by the Wall Street, Ivy League MBA run, banks.

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