Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Why Estonia Is Beating the Eurozone Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
Against the background of a severe economic crisis in the eurozone, one is surprised to find a member of the euro area that is actually showing good economic performance. This member is Estonia. In terms of so-called real gross domestic product (GDP) the average yearly rate of growth in Estonia stood at 8.4 percent in 2011 against overall eurozone performance of 1.5 percent. So far in 2012 the average yearly growth stood at 2.8 percent in Estonia versus -0.2 percent in the eurozone.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Iran's Hyperinflation Economic Death Spiral / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
My October 2009 Globe Asia column was titled "Iran's Death Spiral." In light of the recent events that have transpired in Iran, I think I might have been onto something back in 2009.
Since early September, there has been an accelerated slide in the value of the Iranian rial. This slide has been punctuated by dramatic collapses in the demand for the rial. With each collapse, there has been something akin to a "bank run" on rials — with a sharp rise in the black market (read: free market) IRR/USD exchange rate (see the accompanying chart). Ironically, Iranians are clamoring for U.S. Dollars.
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Sunday, October 21, 2012
The Recipe For U.S. Hyperinflation, Looming Dollar Collapse / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Graham_Summers
For the last year, I’ve steered clear of commenting on the US Presidential election for the simple reason that I wanted us to be closer to the actual date before I went through the process of explaining what’s to come.
The reason for this is that elections by their very nature are conflicting processes. Most people vote based on emotions when we are in fact electing someone to fulfill a role that is economic in nature.
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Saturday, October 20, 2012
QE3 and Coming Economic Crash / Economics / Financial Crash
By: EWI
Why monetarist theory is flawed
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke really means it this time.
He will rescue the economy.
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Saturday, October 20, 2012
The Growth Recession, Can the Fed Create Demand? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
The Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook is one of the cornerstones of my reading on where the economy is headed. Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt do a masterful job of turning data points into cogent, well-argued themes.
This month they waste no time in dissecting the Fed’s recent move to QE3 and similar efforts in Europe, arriving at the conclusion that “While prices for risk assets have improved, governments have not been able to address underlying debt imbalances. Thus, nothing suggests that these latest actions do anything to change the extreme over-indebtedness of major global economies.”
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Saturday, October 20, 2012
Remember The BRICs? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Andrew_McKillop
A now nicely mythologised theme for government-friendly, politically-correct good news suppliers such as The Economist or Financial Times, and related propaganda outlets, is that the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) can still save us.
The term was coined by Goldman economist Jim O'Neill in November 2001, possibly to cheer us all up after the September 11th street theatre events staged in New York and Washington.
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Friday, October 19, 2012
Halloween And The Ghost Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
Ghost cities in China, ghost racetracks in Greece, ghost jobs and growth in America: Halloween is coming right on time. However, in the now intensely mythologized Euro Crisis, even the ghost of terminal crisis seems to be dying. Today, the Eurozone is running a bigger and bigger capital surplus simply because the economy collapsed. With it, there are impressive falls in imports of Donald Duck flashlights and other stuff from China. Even black oil imports from friendly Russia and Arab countries are declining: most recent YOY data for motor fuel demand in the Eurozone-17 group shows about 6.5% decline. Trade deficits can only decline - as in the USA.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Bernanke's QE3 Bubble - the Coming Economic Deflationary Crash / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Why monetarist theory is flawed
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke really means it this time.
He will rescue the economy.
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Thursday, October 18, 2012
China’s Economy Slowing Down as Power Output Drops to Four-Month Low / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
A rally in Asia is underway this morning as Wen Jiabao, China’s premier is upbeat on China’s economy
Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, has given his most optimistic assessment of the Chinese economy since the start of the year, saying that it had stabilised and that the government’s target of 7.5 per cent annual growth was well within reach.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Recession Proof Your Portfolio: Buy Gold, Reduce Exposure to Stocks; Mild Recession? / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are playing an interesting video on Yahoo!Finance with Robert Wiedemer, managing director at Absolute Investment Management and the co-author of the book The Aftershock Investor.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Global Economic Quiet Ahead of the Post U.S. Election Storm / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Graham_Summers
While the media world is abuzz with last night’s Presidential debate, I’d like to cut through the noise and present you with two truly staggering facts that need to be kept in mind as the backdrop for the US Presidential Election
Fact #1: EU leaders have stated point blank that they were asked to keep things quiet until after the election.
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Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Worried U.S. Econcomy? You’d Better Watch China / Economics / China Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: What happens in China will have an impact on the U.S. economy and the global economy. The linkage between economies worldwide has become more profound over the past decade. This is why, as an investor, you need to be fully aware of the situation across the Pacific.
The state of the Chinese economy continues to ramp up heated discussion specifically concerning the immediate need for further monetary stimulus to drive domestic consumption in China.
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Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Debt Black Hole Event Horizon, Economic Singularity, The Minsky Moment / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
"Concern about politics and the processes of international co-operation is warranted but the best one can hope for from politics in any country is that it will drive rational responses to serious problems. If there is no consensus on the causes or solutions to serious problems, it is unreasonable to ask a political system to implement forceful actions in a sustained way. Unfortunately, this is to an important extent the case with respect to current economic difficulties, especially in the industrial world.
"While there is agreement on the need for more growth and job creation in the short run and on containing the accumulation of debt in the long run, there are deep differences of opinion both within and across countries as to how this can be accomplished. What might be labelled the 'orthodox view' attributes much of our current difficulty to excess borrowing by the public and private sectors, emphasises the need to contain debt, puts a premium on credibly austere fiscal and monetary policies, and stresses the need for long-term structural measures rather than short-term demand-oriented steps to promote growth.
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Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Inflation: Washington is Blind to Main Street's Biggest Concern / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
Journalists, politicians and economists all seem to agree that the biggest economic issue currently worrying voters is unemployment. It follows then that most believe that the deciding factor in the presidential race will be the ability of each candidate to convince the public that his policies will create jobs. It seems that everyone got this memo...except the voters.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
U.S. Economic Recovery, Monetary Policy, and Demographics Analysis / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Fresh on the heels of my 3:38 AM post Charting Errors in BLS Participation Rate Projections came an interesting speech by William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Bootle's, Bad Advice for the Greeks, Misunderstands Basic Economics / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: This summer Roger Bootle won Lord Wolfson's £250,000 prize for the best advice for a country leaving the European Monetary Union (one may assume that this advice is aimed at Greece). A more statist, anti-liberal policy than his could hardly be envisioned, which is a sad commentary on the mindset of the judges chosen by Lord Wolfson. His advice contrasted sharply with that of Dr. Philipp Bagus, whose liberal, transparent, and free-market-oriented policy advice was rejected in favor of Mr. Bootle's call for state secrecy and coercion.
Monday, October 15, 2012
U.S. Labour Force BLS Participation Rate Projections Charting Errors / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
The following graph plots labor force participation rates by BLS economist Mitra Toossi in November 2006 with new projections for the participation rate as of January 2012:
Monday, October 15, 2012
OECD Choices: Death By Economic Austerity Or By Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Andrew_McKillop
MORGAN STANLEY SAYS
In late July, Morgan Stanley summarized the no-win that laisser-faire, or rather laisser-aller deciders committed to doing nothing rational, have created for themselves and for us all in any Developed Market, advanced industrial (also called postindustrial) country. MS said the choice of fiscal, economic, monetary and related policy was between the Scylla of chase-your-tail austerity and the Charybdis of sovereign insolvency. In a rapidly rising number of countries, now daily reality in Europe's PIIGS, both these no- hope choices are being operated: they are not mutually exclusive.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
The Good, Bad and Ugly of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty. That's when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn't even offsetting private sector weakness. Deflation reigns in peacetime, and I think it is again, with the end of the Iraq engagement and as the unwinding of Afghanistan expenditures further reduce military spending.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
When It Comes to Forecasting, Consumers are Smarter Than 'Conomists / Economics / US Economy
By: Lee_Adler
The Thompson Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released this morning, and like just about every other September release, it hugely beat economists consensus expectations. I had written several pieces in September alluding to the fact that withholding tax collections had surged early in the month and continued to do well thereafter, foreshadowing what would be stronger than expected economic releases for September.