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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 06, 2011

Don’t Be Fooled By The Jobs Report! / Economics / Employment

By: Sy_Harding

This was a week that confirmed that the economic recovery has stalled.

We knew from the previous week that economic growth (GDP) slowed to just 1.8% in the March quarter from 3.1% in the December quarter.

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Economics

Friday, May 06, 2011

Weak U.S. Credit Growth Early Sign of a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: In spite of five straight quarters of loosening lending standards and strong U.S. credit growth data, actual loan growth in the U.S. economy is dangerously anemic.

What isn't apparent to investors is that the reason first-quarter gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth fell to 1.8% from the fourth quarter's more robust 3.1% rate is that loans and leases - which accounted for as much as 51.2% of U.S. GDP as recently as 2008 - fell to 45% of GDP in March.

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Economics

Friday, May 06, 2011

What Hyperinflation Looks Like / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSweeping up pengő banknotes. Hungary, 1946.

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Economics

Friday, May 06, 2011

U.S. Economy Crippled / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSomething happened in April that crippled the US economy. First it was the reports from four regional Fed manufacturing surveys showing a sharp slowdown in growth. Then weekly jobless claims began printing four handles each week with today's 474,000 on top of last week's 429,000. The real kicker was Wednesday's ISM Services that registered a very sharp drop off and now sits precariously close to contraction.

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Economics

Friday, May 06, 2011

U.S. Economic Data to Ponder About Before the April Employment Report / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe April employment report is scheduled for publication Friday, May 6.  An increase of 190,000 payroll jobs and a steady reading for the unemployment rate (8.8%) is our forecast.  The consensus forecast is an increase of 200,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate.  Nonfarm payrolls increased 216,000 in March, with the private sector accounting for a gain of 230,000 jobs.  Private sector hiring has risen at an impressive clip in the February-March period (average of 235,000 jobs).  Against this backdrop, the jobless claims numbers for the week ended April 30 were unexpected.  Initial jobless claims rose 43,000 to 474,000 and the prior week's estimate was raised to 431,000 from 429,000. 

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Economics

Thursday, May 05, 2011

China's Economy Continues to Ascend But Watch Out for Speed Bumps, Investment Plays / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJason Simpkins writes: Everyone knows that China's economy is hot. The only question is whether it may be a little too hot.

China posted yet another quarter of stellar economic growth in the first quarter of 2011, with its gross domestic product (GDP) growing 9.7%. However, analysts are worried about some of the side effects that have accompanied that growth- namely soaring inflation and the emergence of speculative bubbles.

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Economics

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Consumer Credit Could Launch Inflationary Spiral / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Recent comments from Walmart chief executive Mike Duke have investors on high alert.  This time, though, the news spreads well beyond Walmart.

At a company event in New York, Duke reminded the crowd that retail is softening, “we’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” and later added that it was rising fuel costs, just another component of monetary inflation, that was driving the sales loss.  Of particular interest to inflation watchers should be his comments that were mostly ignored. 

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Economics

Thursday, May 05, 2011

ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Shows Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe ISM non-manufacturing survey results point to slowing conditions in the service sector of the economy in April.  The composite index declined to 52.8 in April from 57.3 in March.  This is the second monthly decline and the lowest since July 2010 (see Chart 1).  The composite index is made up of four equally weighted components.  Of the four components, supplier deliveries advanced in April (53.0 vs. 51.5), while indexes tracking new orders (52.7 vs. 64.1 in March), business activity (53.7 vs. 59.7 in March) and employment (51.9 vs. 53.7) declined. 

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Economics

Thursday, May 05, 2011

Where is the Global Economy Headed? The Worst Is Yet to Come / Economics / Global Economy

By: Casey_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Roy Furr: I'm writing today after spending the last three days in Boca Raton, Florida, attending The Next Few Years: A Casey Research Summit. If you're not already familiar, the purpose of this summit was to bring together many of the world's top economic and investing minds to share with us where they believe we're headed in the months and years ahead.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Bin Laden's Death and U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, appeared on Bloomberg Television today with Willow Bay from the Milken Conference in Los Angeles, where he discussed the effect of Bin Laden's death on the markets as well as the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

U.S. Economy Faces Domestic Economic Headwinds / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you watched the move Inside Job then you realized as it ended that we were in fact living the sequel. The movie is far from over. The problems are far from being addressed. The solutions may be close but the leadership needed is no where near.

Week after week I may sound like a broken record. Like someone who has missed the bull run and trying to defend lost opportunity. At some point this market will turn. Those who said they will get out at or near the top will again be proven wrong. Their paper profits will turn into paper losses and they will argue they "cannot afford to sell." What has frustrated the bears will one day frustrate the bulls.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Hyperinflation and Double-Dip Recession Ahead / Economics / HyperInflation

By: The_Gold_Report

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic recovery? What economic recovery? Contrary to popular media reports, government economic reporting specialist and ShadowStats Editor John Williams reads between the government-economic-data lines. "The U.S. is really in the worst condition of any major economy or country in the world," he says. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John concludes the nation is in the midst of a multiple-dip recession and headed for hyperinflation.

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2011

The Debt and Inflation Endgame Headwinds / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have written repeatedly about the Endgame in the weekly letter, as well as in a New York Times best-seller on the same topic. By Endgame I mean the period of time in which many of the developed economies of the world will either willingly deleverage or be forced to do so. This age of deleveraging will produce a fundamentally different economic environment, which the McKinsey study referenced below suggests will last anywhere from 4-6 years. Now, whether this deleveraging is orderly, as now appears to be the case in Britain, or more resembles what I have long predicted will be a violent default in Greece, it will create a profoundly different economic world from the one we have lived in for 60 years. This makes sense, in that the prior world was defined by ever-increasing amounts of leverage. Outright reductions in leverage or even a significant slowing of the rate of growth is a whole new ballgame, economically speaking.

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Has the Fed Decided to Fight Inflation Instead of Unemployment? / Economics / US Economy

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Alden writes in a Huffington Post liveblog entitled "Inflation Vs. Jobs":

Bernanke's argument about inflation isn't consistent, economist Paul Krugman says.

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2011

U.S. Core Inflation Remains Contained, FOMC Policy Stance is Safe / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in March after an upwardly revised 0.5% jump in February. A 0.4% increase in outlays of services and a 0.1% jump in purchases of durables lifted consumer spending, with a 0.3% drop in expenditures of non-durables were a partial offset. Real consumer spending is projected to advance by 3.0% during the second quarter after a 2.7% gain in the first quarter.

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