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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

What Happened To Economic Growth? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe magical invention of economic growth needs the magic of invention, and technological-type invention is always around and available the optimists tell us. When it isn’t, like now, doctoring the numbers and letting them doctor themselves with false overvalued monetary units "measuring" the growth that is not there will pass muster, the optimists don’t tell us. Doctoring growth that isn't also draws on productivity gains that aren't, using the same vastly overvalued money units that "measure" growth: for how many years have we had productivity gains (or claims) at 6% or more every year ? In plenty of national cases, simply inverting claimed productivity gains, and claimed rates of inflation, will give a much more honest picture of what is going on. This now longstanding and traditional doctoring of the data, both deliberate and inadvertent, extended over 10 and 15 years or more, gives us vastly different readouts for the real situation: which is bad.

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Economics

Monday, December 26, 2011

A Few Chinese Bad News Bears To Spoil A Happy New Year / Economics / China Economy

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoldman's Jim O'Neill noted in a recent interview that the world's future prosperity depends on China's growth. While we don't totally agree with that assessment as we see China as one of the many contributory factors towards world's future, there are some recent bad news bears coming out of China that could spell troubles for markets, at least in 2012.

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Economics

Saturday, December 24, 2011

U.S. the Payroll Tax 'Holiday' Extension a Festivus Miracle for GDP? / Economics / Taxes

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn recent days many economists were preparing to lower their 2012 GDP forecasts in case Congress could not reach an agreement to extend the 2% reduction in the employee contribution to the payroll (FICA) tax. I kept getting questions on how much I was going to lower my forecast if the tax holiday were not extended. And I kept responding, 0.0%.

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Economics

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Restoring Economic Growth Is Not Possible, Invisible Mending ? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are no shortage of search engine hits with "Restore economic growth". In Europe, the eye of the storm for ever more complex and unsure, but supposedly market friendly debt control plays that finally depend on even more government borrowing, restoring economic growth always figures somewhere on the teleprompter for leading edge interviews by political deciders. The quest to retore economic growth is always cited as a goal by deciders, but they know, and we know that it isnt possible.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

China’s Stimulus Talk And Buying Silver On The Copper Dip / Economics / China Economy

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

All eyes are now on China as a source for consumer strength in the developed world.  Customs data released on December 10 tells a concerning story - China's overseas shipments are growing, but at their slowest pace since 2009. 

In November, China recorded 13.8% growth in overseas shipments from the year-ago period.  However, Chinese trade balances are beginning to turn decidedly toward an imbalance.  The balance numbers recorded a 35% plunge in China's trade surplus, enough to worry investors that European consumption is dropping dramatically in light of a debt crisis. 

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Economics

Sunday, December 18, 2011

U.S. Economy Center Cannot Hold, Where Is My Return to the Mean? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTurning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

- The Second Coming, by William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)

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Economics

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Global Economic Crisis: The U.S. An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: LEAP

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs announced in previous GEABs, in this issue our team presents its anticipations on the changes in the United States for the period 2012-2016. This country, the epicentre of the global systemic crisis and pillar of the international system since 1945, will go through a particularly tragic in its history during these five years.

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Economics

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Understanding Unemployment, Keynesian vs. Marxist Explanations / Economics / Unemployment

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIsmael Hossein-zadeh writes: “A study of the struggle waged by the English working class reveals that, in order to oppose their workers, the employers either bring in workers from abroad or else transfer manufacture to countries where there is a cheap labor force. Given this state of affairs, if the working class wishes to continue its struggle with some chance of success, the national organisations must become international.” (Karl Marx)

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Economics

Saturday, December 17, 2011

U.S. Inflation, A Hurdle for the Next Round of Quantitative Easing? / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in November after a 0.1% drop in October. The 1.6% drop in the energy price index and the muted 0.1% increase in food prices helped to hold down the overall gain of the CPI in November. Gasoline prices continue to decline and offset higher prices of heating oil. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in November following gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months. Higher prices for apparel (+0.6%) and medical care (+0.4%) show the relatively large gains in November. Shelter costs advanced 0.2% in November, matching the increase seen in October.

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Economics

Saturday, December 17, 2011

China Economy May Drag World Down / Economics / China Economy

By: Barry_Elias

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy column of June 24, 2011 ("China Yield Inversion May Portend Economic Slowdown") opened with the following sentence:

“The yield on Chinese bonds are inverting at an accelerating rate. This does not portend well for the Chinese economy, and this may have negative implications globally.”

China’s contribution to global economic growth this year is nearly 40%.

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Economics

Friday, December 16, 2011

How an Economy Collapses… and How to Protect Yourself, Part 2 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Paul_Mladjenovic

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo recap the main point from Part one of this two-part essay series, I mentioned that the internal collapse of an economy occurs when it is overburdened by too much consumption (such as debt) and that the primary engine of this over-consumption is typically a government that has grown too big to sustain. The United States is definitely trending in that direction. I used my former country, Yugoslavia, as an example of what may occur.

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Economics

Friday, December 16, 2011

Global Economic Overview December 2011 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMorgan Stanley recently downgraded its forecast for 2012 global growth to 3.5% from 3.8%. Remember in August, Morgan Stanley cut its global forecast for GDP growth down to 3.9% (from 4.2%) and 3.8% (from 4.5%) for 2011 and 2012, respectively.

In June, the IMF forecast 2.5% and 2.7% GDP growth in 2011 and 2012, respectively. This latest revision comes closer to the organization’s 2% benchmark for a global recession. 

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Economics

Friday, December 16, 2011

Jobless Claims of the U.S. economy Post a Notable Improvement / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims of the U.S. economy fell 19,000 to 366,000 during the week ended December 10, after a similar decline in the prior week. If this trend were to continue, the labor market picture could be different by the next FOMC meeting in January 2012.

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Economics

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Asia Diverging Economic Outlooks Going Into 2012 / Economics / Asian Economies

By: James_Pressler

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith most of the industrialized world focusing on all things European, we thought it might be worthwhile to see just what was happening on the other side of the Ural Mountains. Asia has not become embroiled in the debt problems sweeping through the likes of Greece and Italy, and its exposure to the euro is contained. However, what happens in Europe will inevitably drift into Asia, so a look at its major economies might provide insight into what awaits the region in 2012. In particular, we are focusing on the two most populous countries in the world – China and India.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Fed Stands Pat as the Curtain Closes on 2011 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed upgraded the performance of the U.S. economy compared with its assessment in November. The FOMC vote to stand pat was nearly unanimous, with only one dissent. Chicago Fed President Evans dissented as he would have preferred additional policy accommodation. The economy is now seen to be growing at a moderate pace despite the slowing conditions abroad. The Fed noted that while there are "some improvements in the labor market," the "unemployment rate remains elevated."

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Changing Views on Growth and Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat’s new?

When we signed off last week, the Germans and the French were trying to hold Europe together. This morning, they are still trying.

“Don’t you live in Europe?” asked a friend at a party over the weekend.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Sorting Out the Euro-zone Mess / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI had the pleasure of spending the morning and part of the afternoon today with Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky at a seminar here in Dallas; and we shared a long lunch, where Europe and China were the topics of conversation. So, with their permission, here is their latest "Five Corners," in which Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky discuss last week's summit, and then engage in an internal debate about whether Italy really has a significant trade deficit with Germany. As I expect from GaveKal, it's not your typical analysis. And since I have to run to dinner – and glean more insights from their team (there will be homework when I get back!), this introduction to Outside the Box is short, and we can jump right into today's piece. Have a great week.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

U.S. Household Debt - Deleveraging Posts New Record / Economics / US Debt

By: Asha_Bangalore

Household debt soared prior to the onset of the financial crisis to establish a peak at $13.9 trillion in second quarter of 2008 (see Chart 2). During the thirteen quarters since the peak, household debt has declined $688 billion (see Chart 3) to set a new record for the post-war period.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The Other Side of the Austerity Program - German Economy Stands to Lose / Economics / Germany

By: Asha_Bangalore

A fiscal austerity program has been adopted as the cure all for the ills of the indebted members of the eurozone. The flipside of this policy is that in the short-run Germany’s exports of goods and services will take a deep hit. Exports of goods and services from Germany reached a record high of 51% in the third quarter of 2011 (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Monday, December 12, 2011

ECRI Renews U.S. Recession Call Clashing with Wall Street Expectations / Economics / Recession 2012

By: EconMatters

The U.S. economy is showing signs of life with good economic numbers after the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) declared on 30 Sep. that the U.S. has already or is about to dip into recession.

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